Varys killed ...

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

... because Pycelle is one of the only people left alive who can say with certainty that the real Aegon is dead.

When discussing the Aegon thing, a lot of attention gets paid to Varys, Elia, Gregor, Rhaenys, Tywin, etc. Rarely, it seems to me, is it noted that Pycelle was there, too. One of the arguments in favor of the baby swap is that the scene was so gory and disturbing that no one wanted to look too closely. This is mentioned in Kevan's epilogue, when he says as much himself and starts to have doubts as to what it was he saw exactly.

The Reach lords are immediately dismissive of Young Griff, more so even than Kevan in his own thoughts. He also remembers that both Tyrell and Tarly are ex-Targaryen loyalists. I've even seen it suggested that perhaps Tarly is "protesting too much" about Aegon being a fake and actually intends to throw in with him (the Targs still have friends in the Reach and whatnot).

Pycelle also refers to Young Griff as a "pretender" and doesn't seem terribly shocked or concerned about it; he pays more attention to Dany and her dragons. Connington and the pretender can be forked over by bribing a sellsword company, no biggie.

And the rest we all know. Kevan discovers Pycelle dead before Varys pulls a Bond villain monologue on him and has his child spies kill him with daggers. I thought it was interesting that Varys told Kevan why he had to die — because Kevan was actually showing signs of competency when Varys needed chaos — but nothing is said of the motivation for killing Pycelle. Is it the same motive for killing Kevan? Maybe. But Varys speaks of Kevan singularly, without mentioning the maester. And sure, Pycelle's death will cause some chaos, given that his testimony to Cersei is part of what got Margaery in trouble. But not nearly as much as Kevan's death. Really, if Varys wanted to keep Cersei empowered and causing the cray-cray, shouldn't he have wanted to keep Pycelle alive, given that he was one of her biggest enablers, whereas Kevan was actually trying to rein her in?

Let's look at what we know about maesters. They're sort of a combination of doctors, advisers, lawyers, scientists, writers, etc. Part of their job is acting as the physician to the families that they serve. In Pycelle's case, that's the royal family. Pycelle is probably the one who actually delivered Rhaenys and Aegon both from Elia; at the very least, he would be the one giving them thorough examinations, not just after their births, but surely during their early lives to make sure they were healthy. He would be familiar with birthmarks, defects, moles, scars ... basically any identifying characteristic of either of them.

Most people in the throne room in King's Landing wouldn't have wanted to look too closely at the dead children. But that was Pycelle's job as the maester — examining dead bodies, preparing them for cremation or burial, identifying the cause of death and basically giving them a postmortem inspection. If nothing else, especially given that Aegon's face was destroyed, it makes sense for Tywin at least to have Pycelle give the bodies a look-over to make sure it was the children in question. And Pycelle, being Tywin's lapdog, assuredly would have told Tywin immediately if something was off about either of them. It follows then that Pycelle had no reason to doubt that the bodies belonged to Aegon and Rhaenys — and he, far more than any of the other flinching witnesses who couldn't look too closely, would know.

So if I'm Varys and I know that my fake Aegon is on the move and poised to take Storm's End, I want to tie up any outstanding loose ends. One of which is a man in the capital, maybe the only man in the capital, who can prove that my Aegon is not the Aegon. And if I kill him in conjunction with Kevan Lannister, the murders look related to the outside viewer even if the motives are different, and no one ever has to know that I really killed him because of what it is that he knows.

[Rhymes with Weak]

Sounds reasonable.

[Señor de la Tormenta]

You nailed it brah. Definitly you got something here.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

What should I say but "Yes, makes perfect sense"?

[Mad Monkey]

Makes sense. The only other people I can think of who would have to get up close and personal with the dead bodies would be the silent sisters who a] wouldn't have recognized Aegon from birth anyway and b] are big believers in the motto, "Snitches get stitches" (aka "If you see something, say nothing."

[Cheshire Rat]

An excellent point, I'd never really given any thoughts as to why Pycelle was killed.

[Mladen]

Nice... And I totally buy it...

You said it all. Varys would know possible birthmarks on the boy's body. And even if there are none, someone would think of Pycelle lying of their existence. Either way, Varys would want him dead. Then there is preparation of dead body. The bodies were wrapped in crimson red when they were shown to Robert, so I imagine someone took care of those bodies. We also know Pycelle was taking care of Tywin's body post mortem. So, that's basically 2 reasons, as you said it to kill Pycelle.

[Consigliere]

I think you've nailed it. I don't see any other reason for him killing Pycelle other than he knows the real Aegon is dead. Also, the Randyll Tarly "doth protest too much" is certainly plausible. Tarly may feel slighted that Brightwater Keep was granted to Garlan and not Dickon. Afterall Dickon probably has a better claim since his mother is a Florent. Added to that, Mace took credit for the victory at Ashford. I would say at this point Tarly's loyalties are uncertain.

edit. spelling

[Señor de la Tormenta]

I think you've nailed it. I don't see any other reason for him killing Pycelle other than he knows the real Aegon is dead. Also, the Randyll Tarly "doth protest too much" is certainly plausible. Tarly may feel slighted that Brightwater Keep was granted to Garlan and not Dickon. Afterall Dickon probably has a better claim since his mother is a Florent. Added to that, Mace took credit for the victory at Ashford. I would say at this point Tarly's loyalties are uncertain.

edit. spelling

And also, theres a wink of martin in that way, when kevan ask himself what would be the way to get tarly turn away from mace side.

[Mountain Tribesman]

Interesting theory. It doesn't prove that Aegon is fake, but it does sound logical that Varys would kill him. Pycelle is a Lannister loyalist, and he would've declared Aegon fake regardless of the actual truth of it all, possibly fabricating evidence in the process.

Well, Varys killed him for that and just to create chaos between Tyrell and Lannister.

[Robin the Mighty]

No, the reason Varys killed Pycelle is that he would dress up as the new grand maester.

[The guy from the Vale]

As I made the same point simultaneously to you yesterday, all I can do is agree :P

I'd add that we already know of one case of a Maester immediately recognizing two deliberately mutilated dead children as not who they were supposed to be: Luwin knew the children Theon had had killed and flayed were not Bran and Rickon, mainly because of the leg musculature of the bigger boy. While Aegon's head was smashed, he still had most of his skin left, giving Pycelle a chance to also look for scars, moles, birthmarks etc, something Luwin couldn't do. If Luwin could find out the dead boys weren't Bran and Rickon with the little evidence he had, I'm pretty sure Pycelle would be able to find out about a switch with the additional evidence..

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Interesting theory. It doesn't prove that Aegon is fake, but it does sound logical that Varys would kill him. Pycelle is a Lannister loyalist, and he would've declared Aegon fake regardless of the actual truth of it all, possibly fabricating evidence in the process.

Well, Varys killed him for that and just to create chaos between Tyrell and Lannister.

The point is that with Pycelle, there's no fabrication necessary. He would know for sure and that's why he has to go.

[Varamyr Sixskins]

... because Pycelle is one of the only people left alive who can say with certainty that the real Aegon is dead.

When discussing the Aegon thing, a lot of attention gets paid to Varys, Elia, Gregor, Rhaenys, Tywin, etc. Rarely, it seems to me, is it noted that Pycelle was there, too. One of the arguments in favor of the baby swap is that the scene was so gory and disturbing that no one wanted to look too closely. This is mentioned in Kevan's epilogue, when he says as much himself and starts to have doubts as to what it was he saw exactly.

The Reach lords are immediately dismissive of Young Griff, more so even than Kevan in his own thoughts. He also remembers that both Tyrell and Tarly are ex-Targaryen loyalists. I've even seen it suggested that perhaps Tarly is "protesting too much" about Aegon being a fake and actually intends to throw in with him (the Targs still have friends in the Reach and whatnot).

Pycelle also refers to Young Griff as a "pretender" and doesn't seem terribly shocked or concerned about it; he pays more attention to Dany and her dragons. Connington and the pretender can be forked over by bribing a sellsword company, no biggie.

And the rest we all know. Kevan discovers Pycelle dead before Varys pulls a Bond villain monologue on him and has his child spies kill him with daggers. I thought it was interesting that Varys told Kevan why he had to die — because Kevan was actually showing signs of competency when Varys needed chaos — but nothing is said of the motivation for killing Pycelle. Is it the same motive for killing Kevan? Maybe. But Varys speaks of Kevan singularly, without mentioning the maester. And sure, Pycelle's death will cause some chaos, given that his testimony to Cersei is part of what got Margaery in trouble. But not nearly as much as Kevan's death. Really, if Varys wanted to keep Cersei empowered and causing the cray-cray, shouldn't he have wanted to keep Pycelle alive, given that he was one of her biggest enablers, whereas Kevan was actually trying to rein her in?

Let's look at what we know about maesters. They're sort of a combination of doctors, advisers, lawyers, scientists, writers, etc. Part of their job is acting as the physician to the families that they serve. In Pycelle's case, that's the royal family. Pycelle is probably the one who actually delivered Rhaenys and Aegon both from Elia; at the very least, he would be the one giving them thorough examinations, not just after their births, but surely during their early lives to make sure they were healthy. He would be familiar with birthmarks, defects, moles, scars ... basically any identifying characteristic of either of them.

Most people in the throne room in King's Landing wouldn't have wanted to look too closely at the dead children. But that was Pycelle's job as the maester — examining dead bodies, preparing them for cremation or burial, identifying the cause of death and basically giving them a postmortem inspection. If nothing else, especially given that Aegon's face was destroyed, it makes sense for Tywin at least to have Pycelle give the bodies a look-over to make sure it was the children in question. And Pycelle, being Tywin's lapdog, assuredly would have told Tywin immediately if something was off about either of them. It follows then that Pycelle had no reason to doubt that the bodies belonged to Aegon and Rhaenys — and he, far more than any of the other flinching witnesses who couldn't look too closely, would know.

So if I'm Varys and I know that my fake Aegon is on the move and poised to take Storm's End, I want to tie up any outstanding loose ends. One of which is a man in the capital, maybe the only man in the capital, who can prove that my Aegon is not the Aegon. And if I kill him in conjunction with Kevan Lannister, the murders look related to the outside viewer even if the motives are different, and no one ever has to know that I really killed him because of what it is that he knows.

This is the most brilliant analysis of Pycelle's murder I have ever read. Very well done.

[Varamyr Sixskins]

Some might say that there is a Mountain of evidence against Aegon being a Targaryen.

[Florina Laufeyson]

Oh hey! I never really thought about that, but i think you are definitely on to something there. That could very well be the reason Varys killed Pycelle. The extra cherry on top of the shit sundae is that Pycelle is now unable to testify against Marg which tosses in some reasonable doubt for Cersei's and Marg's trials. Furthering the chaos in King's Landing. Two birds, one stone.

[Usrnmhsnomning]

If people could stop making the fAegon/Blackfyre stuff look so legitimate, that'd be great.

What gets me thinking is the translation to the tv show. It's gonna be a hell of a lot more left-field for them than it is for us if the reveal that Aegons a Blackfyre happens

[otherbeef]

sound reasoning for sure. i feel in the end though, no matter who is involved, it will just turn into one big "he said/she said" with nobody able to prove or disprove any of it.

[Mrs_Darcy]

Great analysis! I never thought about that aspect in the murder of Pycelle.

I think, the murder of Pycelle happened for a mixture of different reasons:

-It is difficult to remove a Grand Maester without enraging the Citadel, so by having him murdered before Aegon is near Varys can get rid of a troublesome Small Council Member (and hopefully get a better one) without enraging the Citadel.

-Pycelle cannot prove, that Aegon is fake.

-It causes trouble between the Lannister and the Tyrells, since the Lannister have to assume, that the Tyrells are behind the murder because

-Pycelle is one of more able Lannister cronies in the Small Council

-The Tyrells can hope, that a New Grand Maester gets elected, that is a lot more pro-Tyrells (maybe even a family member)

-Pycelle will not be able to testify against Margaery

-it looks really suspicious, that two important Lannister men were killed, but no Tyrell men

[Bright Blue Eyes]

If people could stop making the fAegon/Blackfyre stuff look so legitimate, that'd be great.

What gets me thinking is the translation to the tv show. It's gonna be a hell of a lot more left-field for them than it is for us if the reveal that Aegons a Blackfyre happens

GRRM emphasized time and again that he won't be hindered by the TV show at all. They are on their own.