Jon's Baby Switch

[grasspisser]

Baby switches seem to be a recurring theme in the later books, but i don't see how the swap between Gilly's and Mance's will work. Assuming that Melisandre cannot tell the difference between babies, she will have tried to burn Gilly's baby anyway. Then Snow would say, "psyche, that's the wrong baby". Couldn't Jon just have not swapped the babies and said the same thing, or would Melisandre have known? If she burns the baby regardless, the switch was for nothing and Jon has separated a mother from her child for no reason, unless he values one baby higher than the other, in which case, I don't think it's a morally correct thing to do. I could be missing something out here, but I can't see the point. Obviously, this is ignoring Jon's current state, more theorising about his reasoning.

[not in the face]

Mel did not see Davos smuggling Edric Storm out of Dragonstone right? She is not infallible.

[Ser Duncan of Flea Bottom]

Mel has some powers, but like the guy below told, she is not 100% correct all the time

she couldn't see Davos smuggling Edric

she told Jon about the grey girl coming to the wall, but she was not sure who the girl was, making Jon belive it was Arya

[Thendel]

The true purpose of the switch was to prevent Melisandre from raising "stone dragons". At this point, Jon seriously mistrusts Melisandre and the power she wields, and is willing to sacrifice even Monster to prevent that from happening. He was probably hoping that telling her the truth would be enough to dissuade her from going through with it, but either way, he prevents her from waking a stone dragon or whatnot.

[winteriscome]

Either Jon is afraid of Mel raising stone dragons which i dont think is plausible or he wanted to make sure that the baby was safe. Mel has no use burning the other one and Mel can't burn the other baby anyway Stannis would not allow that and she would also face resistance from the NW for burning a baby even when she knows its no use. Bluffing could have been dangerous Mel could have found out. As for the moral dilemma well he made lemonade out of lemons.

[grasspisser]

i suppose the risk is the main problem. i also wonder if the baby switch will mean something later on, and we actually get to see how both babies turn out

[Lady Isobel]

In Grrm's world everything means something so I'm pretty sure the baby switch will serve some purpose in the future. There's no point in burning Gilly's baby so both of them are safe - for now at least.

[Nudu]

Mel has some magic powers so Jon might be afraid of she could see the truth.

[Aderyn the Sly]

Couldn't Jon just have not swapped the babies and said the same thing, or would Melisandre have known?

I asked this question as well. And my thoughts are this: If Mel tries a spell that only uses a little bit of the baby's blood (like she did with Edric and the leeches) and it doesn't work (assuming King's blood really is the key to the magic and she isn't full of it) then she would realize that it isn't Mance's baby. Also, Mel might be able to use some type of magic to determine if Jon's lying.