Speculating about Daven’s bride and the RW 2.0

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

Speculating about Daven’s bride, and the Red Wedding 2.0

This is my first topic. English is not my first language, sorry for any possible mistake.

I was making a post of the theory of the Red Wedding 2.0, which basically says that Lady Stoneheart and the Brotherhood without Banners will infiltrate Riverrun whilst Walder Frey and other important guests are enjoying the wedding between Daven Lannister and a Frey girl. Lady Stoneheart will have everyone killed, in a poetic revenge that will trigger “Frey civil war” since Lord Walder will be no more.

The guests which attend the the wedding at Riverrun will depend on who the bride is.

Unfortunately we have no idea who she will be. The task of guessing is highly speculative but we can shorten the options with some (few) clues dropped by GRRM.

Ser Daven snorted. “I’ll wed and bed my stoat, never fear. I know what happened to Robb Stark. From what Edwyn tells me, though, I’d best pick one who hasn’t flowered yet, or I’m like to find that Black Walder has been there first. I’ll wager he’s had Gatehouse Ami, and more than thrice. Maybe that explains Lancel’s godliness, and his father’s mood.”

This is very relevant. Black Walder´s affairs are a concern for Daven. Amerei Frey is pointed out as one of the Frey girls whose bed is shared by Black Walder, but she is not the only one:

Black Walder was a man who took what he wanted, even his brother’s wife. He’d had Edwyn’s wife too, that was common knowledge, Fair Walda had been known to slip into his bed from time to time, and some even said he’d known the seventh Lady Frey a deal better than he should have.

ASOS, epilogue

Even though Fair Walda is considered the most beautiful Frey, she should be ruled out as a possible bride for Daven.

But Daven says something more relevant. His intention is to pick a bride who “hasn’t flowered yet” (yes, ASOIAF is full of creeps)

Is this even possible under Westerosi customs? GRRM answers this in a SSM:

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/Age_of_Sexual_Relations_in_Westeros

The nature of the relationship between Sandor and Sansa has been a hot topic on Revanshe's board. Sansa's youth has been one focus of the discussion. What is the general Westerosi view as to romantic or sexual relationships involving a girl of Sansa's age and level of physical maturity?

A boy is Westeros is considered to be a "man grown" at sixteen years. The same is true for girls. Sixteen is the age of legal majority, as twenty-one is for us.

However, for girls, the first flowering is also very significant... and in older traditions, a girl who has flowered is a woman, fit for both wedding and bedding.

A girl who has flowered, but not yet attained her sixteenth name day, is in a somewhat ambigious position: part child, part woman. A "maid," in other words. Fertile but innocent, beloved of the singers.

In the "general Westerosi view," well, girls may well be wed before their first flowerings, for political reasons, but it would considered perverse to bed them. And such early weddings, even without sex, remain rare. Generally weddings are postponed until the bride has passed from girlhood to maidenhood.

Maidens may be wedded and bedded... however, even there, many husbands will wait until the bride is fifteen or sixteen before sleeping with them. Very young mothers tend to have significantly higher rates of death in childbirth, which the maesters will have noted.

As in the real Middle Ages, highborn girls tend to flower significantly earlier than those of lower birth. Probably a matter of nutrition. As a result, they also tend to marry earlier, and to bear children earlier.

There are plenty of exceptions.

He also gives us an example of a premature wedding for political purpose:

Lady Ermesande a babe seated on her wet nurse’s lap. The talk was she would soon be wed to one of the queen’s cousins, so the Lannisters might claim her lands.

ACOK Sansa I,

Lord Gyles stood coughing, while poor cousin Tyrek wore his bridegroom’s mantle of miniver and velvet. Since his marriage to little Lady Ermesande three days past, the other squires had taken to calling him “Wet Nurse” and asking him what sort of swaddling clothes his bride wore on their wedding night.

ACOK, Tyrion VI

Tyrek Lannister wed a baby, the last of her line, to keep her lands.

So even if Daven wanted to wait till she bled before he weds her, Lord Walder might want to rush the marriage:

“Roslin is a cheerful girl,” said Lothar. “She may be the very thing Lord Edmure needs to help him through his grief.”

“And my grandfather has come to mislike lengthy betrothals,” the bastard Walder Rivers added. “I cannot imagine why."

Robb gave him a chilly look. “I take your meaning, Rivers. Pray excuse us.”

ASOS, Catelyn IV.

With this information at hand, which of the dozens of Walder´s female descendants are “in the market”?

Lord Walder answers this question when he presents his daughters, granddaughters and great granddaughters to Robb Stark, for him to apologize:

Your Grace. My maiden girls. Here, have a look at them.” When he waggled his fingers, a flurry of femininity left their places by the walls to line up beneath the dais. Jinglebell started to rise as well, his bells ringing merrily, but Lady Frey grabbed the lackwit’s sleeve and tugged him back down.

Lord Walder named the names. “My daughter Arwyn,” he said of a girl of fourteen. “Shirei, my youngest trueborn daughter. Ami and Marianne are granddaughters. I married Ami to Ser Pate of Sevenstreams, but the Mountain killed the oaf so I got her back. That’s a Cersei, but we call her Little Bee, her mother’s a Beesbury. More granddaughters. One’s a Walda, and the others . . . well, they have names, whatever they are . . .”

“I’m Merry, Lord Grandfather,” one girl said.

“You’re noisy, that’s for certain. Next to Noisy is my daughter Tyta. Then another Walda. Alyx, Marissa . . . are you Marissa? I thought you were. She’s not always bald. The maester shaved her hair off, but he swears it will soon grow back. The twins are Serra and Sarra.” He squinted down at one of the younger girls. “Heh, are you another Walda?”

The girl could not have been more than four. “I’m Ser Aemon Rivers’s Walda, lord great grandfather.” She curtsied.

“How long have you been talking? Not that you’re like to have anything sensible to say, your father never did. He’s a bastard’s son besides, heh. Go away, I wanted only Freys up here. The King in the North has no interest in base stock.” Lord Walder glanced to Robb, as Jinglebell bobbed his head and chimed. “There they are, all maidens. Well, and one widow, but there’s some who like a woman broken in. You might have had any one of them.”

ASOS, Catelyn VI,

These are the girls Lord Walder would have offered Robb as potential matches. Of course Walda Rivers sneaked into the group. She was never a real option being bastardy born

The list with ages as of Dance with Dragons:

Arwyn (maid, 14), Shirei (girl, 7), Amarei (widow, 18), Marianne Vance (maid, ?), Cersei (girl, 6), Merianne (girl, 11), Tyta (maid, 29), Alyx (maid, 17), Marissa (maid 13), Serra (maid 14), Sarra (maid 14), and two unknown waldas (since he has five trueborn Waldas). I will address the Walda issue later.

What is so special about them? Why would they be offered to Robb and not the rest of the Frey girls? We should look at those who were not presented to Robb before de Red Wedding, to answer this question:

Perra (girl 5), Zia (maid 14), Jeyne Goodbrook (girl, 6), Ryella Frey (girl 5), Hostella (babe), Cynthea (Girl 9), Tysane (Girl 7), Emberlei (3), Leana (Infant) Della (girl 3)

In general terms it seems that Walder Frey is willing to marry maidens and girls with ages close enough to their flowering (girls older than six)

Cynthea Frey would seem to be a viable option, but she is a ward of lady Waynwood.

The cases of Tysane and Zia are puzzling. There might be unknown reasons to rule them out.

Nevertheless this parameters work well to identify Daven´s options. If we take the list of girls presented to Robb Stark, and we rule out maids (because Daven wants to wed a girl who hasn’t flowered yet) we are left with:

Shirei (girl 7), Cersei (girl 6), Merianne (girl 11). We should add the Waldas:

A)Fair Walda, it is well known that she sleeps with Black Walder:

Black Walder was a man who took what he wanted, even his brother’s wife. He’d had Edwyn’s wife too, that was common knowledge, Fair Walda had been known to slip into his bed from time to time

ASOS, epilogue

B ) Fat Walda, is already married to Roose Bolton

C) Walda the daughter of Lothar, is four years old.

She was most likely not presented to Robb being so young, therefore not an option for Daven.

We are left with Walda, the daughter of Edwyn (girl, 9) and White Walda (Girl,11)

At this point we can only speculate which, of the five girls, would be a better match. A previous point should be made. It is evident that in Westeros, the blood, power, wealth and prestige, of the house with which one marries his son or daughter is of vital importance.

There is plenty of evidence to support this claim. House traits might be well known and determinant factors when arranging marriages.

Catelyn would have preferred for her brother, a Frey girl of the Crakehall “faction”, than a Rosby one:

Pretty enough, Catelyn thought, but so small, and she comes of Rosby stock. The Rosbys had never been robust. She much preferred the frames of some of the older girls in the hall; daughters or granddaughters, she could not be sure. They had a Crakehall look about them, and Lord Walder’s third wife had been of that House. Wide hips to bear children, big breasts to nurse them, strong arms to carry them. The Crakehalls have always been a big-boned family, and strong.

ASOS, Catelyn VI

Robb, when he tries to justify himself for marrying Jeyne, also uses blood as a determinant factor:

Robb bristled at that. “The Westerlings are better blood than the Freys. They’re an ancient line, descended from the First Men. The Kings of the Rock sometimes wed Westerlings before the Conquest, and there was another Jeyne Westerling who was queen to King Maegor three hundred years ago.”

ASOS, Catelyn II

The fact that nobles were expected to shun Lyonel Corbray's wedding with a commoner (daughter of a merchant) is another evidence of this issue. Marrying a commoner (even if she is rich) is something to frown upon by nobles. A way of losing prestige.

Lord Lyonel was to wed the strapping sixteen-year-old daughter of a rich Gulltown merchant. Petyr had brokered the match himself. The bride’s dower was said to be staggering; it had to be, since she was of common birth. Corbray’s vassals would be there, with the Lords Waxley, Grafton, Lynderly, some petty lords and landed knights . . . and Lord Belmore, who had lately reconciled with her father. The other Lords Declarant were expected to shun the nuptials, so Petyr’s presence was essential.

AFFC, Alayne II

Let´s go back to issue of Daven´s bride. I will analyse in a case by case basis each of the five girls:

1) Walda, daughter of Edwyn (girl of 8):

She should be the obvious pick. She is the daughter of the heir of the Twins. Who better to marry to seal the alliance with the Freys?

Besides she belongs to the Royce “faction”. House Royce is an old and prestigious house. Older than house Arryn. They precede the Andal invasion, and therefore trace their origins to the First Men. They are the most powerful bannermen of House Arryn. They have several branches.

Walda also has Swann blood. House Swann is an old noble house, regarded as proud, powerful and cautious. They are a Marcher house. These usually carry more prestige and power than the rest of the houses of the Stormlands, since they have been historically trusted with the protection of the borders against invasions from the Reach or Dorne.

Walda´s mother was from House Hunter. House Hunter is also a noble house, and powerful enough for its head, Lord Gilwood Hunter, to be one of the Lords Declarants.

Therefore Walda has as good blood as it gets, at least from the Frey girls. What’s wrong with her? Daven doesn’t have the best opinion of her father:

. Oh, and Edwyn. Not as thick as his father, but as full of hate as a boil’s full of pus.

AFFC, Jaime VI

Jaime lifted his own cup left-handed and took a swallow. The warmth spread through his chest. “You were speaking of the Freys you wanted dead. Ryman, Edwyn, Emmon . . .”

“And Walder Rivers,” Daven said,

AFFC, Jaime VI

Besides, Walda might be a bastard, since it is well known that Black Walder sleeps with Edwyn´s wife:

Black Walder was a man who took what he wanted, even his brother’s wife. He’d had Edwyn’s wife too

ASOS, epilogue

2) Shirei Frey (girl, 7):

The same goes for Shirei, since Black Walder “knew the seventh lady Frey better than he should”

Black Walder was a man who took what he wanted, even his brother’s wife. He’d had Edwyn’s wife too, that was common knowledge, Fair Walda had been known to slip into his bed from time to time, and some even said he’d known the seventh Lady Frey a deal better than he should have.

ASOS, epilogue

Besides she is way to young being seven years old. Daven might want to pick one who is closer in age to flowering.

Her mother was a Farring. Not much is known of House Farring, but it is likely they are a Knightly house, since no lord Farring is known (only knights).

Besides According to semi-canon sources, they blazon their arms with per pale purple and white, two knights combatant with swords, counter-charged. This also implies they are a Knightly house.

Landed Knights carry less prestige than Lords.

She seems like a bad choice.

C) Merianne Frey (girl, 11)

Being eleven is clearly an advantage, she is as close to flowering as it gets. She might even be a maid for the wedding.

She has a Blackwood grandmother. Blackwoods are an old house in the Riverlands, descended of the First Men. They had been petty kings during the Age of Heroes. They lost this status when the Andals came, but still managed to keep many of their cultural legacies including the religion of the Old Gods, being one of the few houses south of the Neck to do so.

Her mother was a Paege. House Paege is knightly house though.

Overall she has relatively good blood.

The Freys of the Blackwood “faction”, are very far in the succession line.

D) White Walda (girl 11):

Like Merianne, she has a “good” age. Her grandfather Aenys Frey was considered a capable military commander. But both Aenys and her father went north to secure seats for their faction. They are probably both dead. So she has no one to “lobby” for her at the twins. Being a Frey of the Royce faction gives her both good blood and relatives who are close in the succession line of the Twins.

Her mother was a Beesbury. House Beesbury is a noble house from The Reach , sworn to the Hightowers.

Her Grandmother was a Wylde. House Wylde is a noble house from the Stormlands. It is one of the principal houses sworn to House Baratheon.

So overall she has very good blood (not as good as the other Walda though)

E) Cersei Frey (girl 6):

Way too young. She has blood of house Beesbury (see above) and Crakehall (middle level noble house from Westerlands sworn to the Lannisters, which is clearly an advantage)

The Crakehall´s are usually well regarded when it comes to arranging marriages:

They had a Crakehall look about them, and Lord Walder’s third wife had been of that House. Wide hips to bear children, big breasts to nurse them, strong arms to carry them. The Crakehalls have always been a big-boned family, and strong.

ASOS Catelyn VI

There is something obviously curious about Cersei. Her name is in honor to Cersei Lannister, and she has two brothers named in honor of other Lannisters (Twin and Jaime). So there might be some link there.

On the other hand Lord Walder has something to say about the “Crakehall Freys”

Some days I wonder if those two are truly mine. My third wife was a Crakehall, all of the Crakehall women are sluts.

AGOT, Catelyn IX

Not sure what to make of her.

Conclusion:

Overall my money is on Merriane for reasons of plot development.

If the Red Wedding 2.0 theory is correct, the Freys which assist the wedding would most likely be the closest relatives of the bride (besides Lord Walder, and the hosts, Emmon frey and Genna lannister). The guest of the wedding will most likely end up dead.

So this might rule out Walda, the daughter of Edwyn. GRRM has invested too much time in foreshadowing, what the aftermath of Lord Walder´s death will look like. He has been putting Edwyn and Black Walder as mayor factions in the dispute over the Twins once Lord Walder dies. It would be a shame if Edwyn was killed before he could fight his brother over the lands and titles of the late Walder Frey.

Cersei, and Shirei are both way too young.

White Walda is a good choice. But both her father and Grandfather are gone. Her uncle is an outlaw. She has no close relatives of importance to kill in a Red Wedding 2.0.

On the other hand, Merianne is a “Blackwood Frey”, which we know little of, besides Lothar (who, being Steward of the Twins, would have an excuse to miss the wedding of the niece).

Merriane´s father was a participant of the Red Wedding (drinking with Greatjon).

Her aunt is married to Ser Flement Brax, a known Lannister knight. House Brax are important bannermen for house Lannister.

Her other uncle is Jammos Frey, father of Big Walder. He stands between Big Walder and the Twins:

“Ryman is old too,” said Little Walder. “Past forty, I bet. And he has a bad belly. Do you think he’ll be lord?”

(Big Walder) “I’ll be lord. I don’t care if he is.”

ACOK, Bran V

We all know who will end up with the Twins :laugh: :laugh:

[Slender Aimry Hill]

Truly excellent post

[King Tyrion VIII]

Love it :commie:

[Jon of the Dead]

Fantastic first post, truly impressive research :bowdown:

[Fat Mac]

Excellent post. Consider me on board.

[Gnivil]

This isn't bad for a first topic.

[Lord of the Twins]

:bowdown:

Really outstanding research there, especially if English is not your first language.

So far as who it is, I think you're probably right about Merianne. I did have doubts because marrying the daughter of someone from a knightly house is probably quite insulting to a Lannister and the Warden of the West (Daven still holds that title, right?)... although the language he uses makes it clear it's a marriage to forge ties between the two Houses, so it's only that magic Frey name :ack: that counts so far as the two families are concerned.

She's Noisy, like that wedding would be, heh.

[Arya kiddin']

Truly great post, Lord-Too-Fat. Though I doubt RW2.0 will happen, you've narrowed down Devan's bride quite nicely.

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

Truly great post, Lord-Too-Fat. Though I doubt RW2.0 will happen, you've narrowed down Devan's bride quite nicely.

thx,

Yeah, RW2 seems a bit lazy on GRRM. Another slaughter in a wedding i mean... But also highly poetic. There are small and few clues though that point in that direction.

To me the biggest one is actually the TV show (supposing the producers actually work with GRRM and know on a bigger picture where the books are going). There is a memorable conversation between Bolton and Walder post RW, which comes immediately after a scene in the Nightfort where Bran tells the story of the Rat cook (HUGE foreshadowing)

The differences with the books are notable.

1) Walder is Lord of Riverrun vs Emmon Frey lord of Riverrun

2) Catelyn kills Joyeuse Erenford (Walder´s wife) vs killing Aegon Frey

Roose Bolton: "you´ll be needing a new young girl"

Walder Frey: "yeah…got that to look forward to"

To me, it´s clear Walder will marry again, this time at Riverrun, his new castle. And the wedding will be a significant event. Whether the Brotherhood without banners actually kills everyone or not I can´t tell, but it is the leading theory.

[Jon's Queen Consort]

First things first: Welcome to the forums! :cheers:

Second: Impressive work. Very well done Sir!

[Pearlthegirl]

This post is flipping awesome OP. Great work! Now I'm excited to see who he picks and why. I'm of a mind that the Red Wedding 2.0 is a much smaller affair, with less casualties and Manderly-esque care not to break guest-right at the same time, but something's gonna happen!

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

This post is flipping awesome OP. Great work! Now I'm excited to see who he picks and why. I'm of a mind that the Red Wedding 2.0 is a much smaller affair, with less casualties and Manderly-esque care not to break guest-right at the same time, but something's gonna happen!

The castle was yielded. So, Tullys will not host the RW2, therefore the laws of hospitality will not be broken if a group of outlaws sneak into the wedding and kill everyone. As long as no one working with the BWB actually eats or drink.. they should be ok

[Wynter Manderly]

thx,

Yeah, RW2 seems a bit lazy on GRRM. Another slaughter in a wedding i mean... But also highly poetic. There are small and few clues though that point in that direction.

To me the biggest one is actually the TV show (supposing the producers actually work with GRRM and know on a bigger picture where the books are going). There is a memorable conversation between Bolton and Walder post RW, which comes immediately after a scene in the Nightfort where Bran tells the story of the Rat cook (HUGE foreshadowing)

The differences with the books are notable.

1) Walder is Lord of Riverrun vs Emmon Frey lord of Riverrun

2) Catelyn kills Joyeuse Erenford (Walder´s wife) vs killing Aegon Frey

Roose Bolton: "you´ll be needing a new young girl"

Walder Frey: "yeah…got that to look forward to"

To me, it´s clear Walder will marry again, this time at Riverrun, his new castle. And the wedding will be a significant event. Whether the Brotherhood without banners actually kills everyone or not I can´t tell, but it is the leading theory.

nice catch! But if or when it (RW 2.0) happens, i doubt it will be like the first RW, it will be different, either the outcome or something else. Just like Bronn's Trial by combat, where light armor vs heavy armor, Bronn won. At Oberyn's Light Armor vs Heavy Armor, it was ALMOST the same outcome... until it was not.

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

nice catch! But if or when it (RW 2.0) happens, i doubt it will be like the first RW, it will be different, either the outcome or something else. Just like Bronn's Trial by combat, where light armor vs heavy armor, Bronn won. At Oberyn's Light Armor vs Heavy Armor, it was ALMOST the same outcome... until it was not.

True.

Perhaps the manner in which de BWB takes them out will be different. I thought poisoning the food, or the wine.

But then again poison would be a Purple Wedding deja vu.

:dunno: :dunno:

i think the outcome is guaranteed in regards as to killing Walder Frey. That one is doomed no matter what happens with the rest of the guests at RW2.

[Pearlthegirl]

It could just be Lord Walder alone, leaving the rest of the Freys warring amongst themselves. Something tho, something's gonna happen.

[Pearlthegirl]

The castle was yielded. So, Tullys will not host the RW2, therefore the laws of hospitality will not be broken if a group of outlaws sneak into the wedding and kill everyone. As long as no one working with the BWB actually eats or drink.. they should be ok

I would not expect the Tully's to host a Frey/Lannister wedding and the Frey's hosted the Red Wedding.

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

I would not expect the Tully's to host a Frey/Lannister wedding and the Frey's hosted the Red Wedding.

Of course.

I only meant that as long as the members of the BWB are not guest of the wedding, they are not bound by the laws of hospitality (they affect both host and guests).

Therefore the slaughter wouldn´t be a breach of guest rights, as it was in the mutiny at craster´s keep, where guests killed their host.

[Pearlthegirl]

Of course.

I only meant that as long as the members of the BWB are not guest of the wedding, they are not bound by the laws of hospitality (they affect both host and guests).

Therefore the slaughter wouldn´t be a breach of guest rights, as it was in the mutiny at craster´s keep, where guests killed their host.

Gotcha, my point was that care would be taken by the BWB to not break guest-right. They won't just not care about it like the Freys at the Red Wedding but will follow it to the letter and still seek vengeance, like Manderly and his pies.....post guest gifts!

[Jon of the Dead]

Do you guys think Jaime will play a part in this wedding? Since UnCat thinks he planned (or that at least he was involved) in the RW, maybe she thinks it would be poetic justice if she forces him to kill some Lannisters here. I don't think UnCat is simply planning to hang Jaime, she must have something more unpleasant in mind

[Bright Blue Eyes]

How would she force him? How could she force him? And even more importantly, how would she know that she can force him? And most important of all, why should she trust him?