Slaughter in Winterfell

[bemused]

Both the people who tied Barbrey to Roose are dead..I won't take this thread sideways, but it's very possible that Roose killed Domeric himself and had a hand in making sure Bethany died of her "fever".. Barbrey is playing Roose . Roose thinks he has her fooled but he has another think coming..

Don't believe a word she says to Theon.. including that she was Brandon's lover ( why would she confide in Theon that way ? She expects both Ramsay and Roose could ask him what she said.). Brandon may well have been Bethany's lover , and Domeric his son..

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/85429-roose-killed-domeric-and-barbrey-knows-it/?hl=%2Broose+%2Bkilled+%2Bdomeric%2C+%2Bbarbrey+%2Bknows

I think we'll find out that she hates Ramsay and Roose equally.

[The Broke Howard Hughes]

The bolded part is pure conjecture. She never says anything that gives this impression, at all. In fact, she seems confident that Roose will prevail against both Stannis and Manderly. She is an ally of Roose, people. Why are people so unwilling to believe this? My guess is that it's because many readers don't like Roose and can't stand the idea of a character liking him, and not liking their heroes the Starks.

Denial ain't just a river in Egypt, I guess.

I love how you attempt to pick apart my point byby saying it's conjecture but turn around and do the exact same thing.

I'm in need of a reread so bear with me but doesn't Lady Dustin warn Theon several times of how much trouble Roose is in because of Ramsay's acts with 'Arya' and him being surrounded by enemies? And here's where I may need reminding but where exactly does Lady Dustin bestow all this confidence in Roose's ability to maneuver through anything? You say we're in denial but blind faith in somebody who made a snap decision based on ego, delusions of grandeur, and ambition, who's luck has clearly run out is a better definition of being in denial isn't it?

[Ramsay Gimp]

I love how you attempt to pick apart my point byby saying it's conjecture but turn around and do the exact same thing.

I'm in need of a reread so bear with me but doesn't Lady Dustin warn Theon several times of how much trouble Roose is in because of Ramsay's acts with 'Arya' and him being surrounded by enemies? And here's where I may need reminding but where exactly does Lady Dustin bestow all this confidence in Roose's ability to maneuver through anything? You say we're in denial but blind faith in somebody who made a snap decision based on ego, delusions of grandeur, and ambition, who's luck has clearly run out is a better definition of being in denial isn't it?

Roose doesn't make "snap decisions." You guys clearly don't understand the character if you think he is rash or delusional. As for the scene you are asking about, it is during the feast when Lady Dustin sits with Theon. She says everyone is "Roose's playthings," because it is all a game to him. A game he will win.

Both the people who tied Barbrey to Roose are dead..I won't take this thread sideways, but it's very possible that Roose killed Domeric himself and had a hand in making sure Bethany died of her "fever".. Barbrey is playing Roose . Roose thinks he has her fooled but he has another think coming..

Don't believe a word she says to Theon.. including that she was Brandon's lover ( why would she confide in Theon that way ? She expects both Ramsay and Roose could ask him what she said.). Brandon may well have been Bethany's lover , and Domeric his son..

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/85429-roose-killed-domeric-and-barbrey-knows-it/?hl=%2Broose+%2Bkilled+%2Bdomeric%2C+%2Bbarbrey+%2Bknows

I think we'll find out that she hates Ramsay and Roose equally.

Roose doesn't get played. You're spinning ridiculous conspiracy theories with no evidence to back them up. Domeric Bolton was actually a Stark bastard? I'm sure you're on to something there :dunce:

[jarl the climber]

Let me put it this way. Lets say Davos brings Rickon back and Stannis takes WInterfell and lets also say that Bran makes his way back as well. At the end of the day Bran is 10 or 11 years old and a cripple, Rickon is 6 barely out of diapers. Stannis has been claiming he is the true King for 2 or 3 years, people have not flocked to him and the ones who have abandoned him after the Blackwater. I do not think even Roose will dispute Rickon and/or Brans claim to Winterfell but he will not bend the knee to them as his leige lord. He will continue to maintain that his house is now the paramount house of the North based on his greater expereince and the relative strength of his house compared to the Starks. The Dustins and the Ryswells will back him and perhaps some others wilingly or through coerscion(Flints of Flints Finger and the Tallharts). He also has his alliance with the Freys, the Lannisters are looking weak but there are other rebels ouit there he can align with(Euron, Aegon or Dany). Winterfell is not the key that people think it is for holding the North. Its a ruined castle and its peoples have been driven off. Stannis taking it does not mean he magically wins the war with Bolton unless Roose is stupid enough to stay there. Why would he? Ramsey has 600 or 700 of his own men, the Freys, the Manderlys, and perhaps the Cerwyns, the Hornwood men and maybe the Umbers. More than enough to defeat Stannis and his half starved army and to march on the Wall to get his wife back.

Even if Stannis gets it Roose still has the Dreadfort, Barrowton, the Ryswell castles and perhaps others. He could hold out for years. With his alliance with the Freys and perhaps with someone of more of use like Euron he can hold what he has and let winter and the enemies from beyond the wall do his work for him. Thats not to say Roose has not been dealt a few blows. It looks like he has lost the Karstarks and will probaly have Winterfell taken by his foes and this victory will hearten them for a time. Still they will have take the Dreadfort, which is not an easy task then root out his allies in the Rills and Barrowton. My thinking is that if Ramsey comes back to Winterfell with Stannis's sword and his head, with his army supposedly defeated Roose has no real reason to stay there at this point, its Ramseys castle and getting his wife and Reek back as well as the other important persons at the Wall are his problem/ or task.

My thinking is that Roose had no more use for Theon after he gave away Arya at the wedding. He wrote Euron asking how much he would give to have Theon executed just like he advised Robb to do in ASOS. Euron probaly told him that he would not give half a groat for him but he might have a coin or two to spare for the Cleftjaw and some of the fighters at Torrhens Square. Getting the Ironborn out of there helps secure the Tallharts so if he thinks Winterfell is secure I think he has other things to do. Some of his men want to go home to their families as well. Its not like Roose is planning on his army spending the whole winter at Winterfell. Nor do I beleive that he intends to rule from there either. So I think he splits his army more or less with some going home and others going South to Torhenns Square to finish off or accept the surrender of the last remaining outpost that they, the Iroborn, maintain in the North.

[Ramsay Gimp]

^You raise some good points Jarl. I honestly don't think Roose will ally with Euron (they're just too far away to be of much help to each other) but you are correct that he still has options. Especially with the Dreadfort to fall back to. It's Ramsay who is clearly fucked at the beginning of TWOW

Look, to everyone I've been arguing with. I'm not saying Roose is going to finish the series as Warden of the North. He is definitely going to be taken down eventually. But these theories that he is actually an idiot being played/used/manipulated by everyone in Winterfell are bollocks. Manderly is operating against him, as are the Northmen with Stannis. But the rest are going with the flow, for now. That's all they can do unless a Stark boy shows up. Roose knows these men don't love him - he is a great judge of character. But he doesn't need their love. You think he doesn't know Manderly killed those Freys? Tisk Tisk.

[franbatista123]

Roose doesn't make "snap decisions." You guys clearly don't understand the character if you think he is rash or delusional. As for the scene you are asking about, it is during the feast when Lady Dustin sits with Theon. She says everyone is "Roose's playthings," because it is all a game to him. A game he will win.

You are correct in saying that he doesn't make "snap decisions", he did have assurances from Tywin (which actually planned to put Sansa and Tyrion's son/daugther as ruler of the North, but that's another story). However, he could not have known that Stannis would have gone to the North, which in turn gives more strenght to the remaining northerners who want to revolt against his rule, like Manderly and others (GNC). That's why he'll probably lose the game.

[jarl the climber]

^You raise some good points Jarl. I honestly don't think Roose will ally with Euron (they're just too far away to be of much help to each other) but you are correct that he still has options. Especially with the Dreadfort to fall back to. It's Ramsay who is clearly fucked at the beginning of TWOW

Look, to everyone I've been arguing with. I'm not saying Roose is going to finish the series as Warden of the North. He is definitely going to be taken down eventually. But these theories that he is actually an idiot being played/used/manipulated by everyone in Winterfell are bollocks. Manderly is operating against him, as are the Northmen with Stannis. But the rest are going with the flow, for now. That's all they can do unless a Stark boy shows up. Roose knows these men don't love him - he is a great judge of character. But he doesn't need their love. You think he doesn't know Manderly killed those Freys? Tisk Tisk.

Hey I could be completely wrong. Roose might stya in Winterfell and get caught with his pants down but I don't think so. He wanted to finish Stannis under the Walls of the Dreadfort initially and occupying Winterfell and forcing Stannis to march on him was plan B. If he is told that Stannis has been killed and his army routed, he has no reason to stay that I can see. He still has the Ironborn at Torhens Square to deal with so I think he goes there to wrap things up with them or he goes back to the Dreadfort.

The thing that gets me a little upset is that Roose and his men are sort of thrown in with the Freys. Roose and his men are Northmen and unlike the Freys they know winter and can fight in just as well as the other Northmen. These aren't Southrons we are talking about and they know the land just as well as Stannis's Northmen. I do not see them going down as easily as the Freys probaly will.

As far as an alliance with Euron goes, its just a notion thats kind of started intriuging me a little. If Roose stays in the game what does he do? He's not going for Stannis, thats obvious. He has an alliance with the Lannisters but that has a lot less value to him now that he is the North, there enemity means little to Bolton at this point. As long as his Frey is alive and popping out heirs for him he has the Freys. Still they do him little good in the North. He could go with Connington/Aegon but he does not know if this boy of his is true and since they have the GC with them most of the choice lands and gold will end up going to them. They are also very far away just like the Lannisters. Then you have Euron and his Ironborn, who as a seapower are much closer then it might look.

Look at it this way, if Stannis takes Winterfell, it will not be secure as long as the Dreadfort is strongly garrisoned and left untaken. Nor can he really march South because it could threaten his supply lines. So the first thing Stannis has to do is put the Dreafort under siege and that is nto going to happen right away. His army will be exhausted after taking Winterfell. Supplies and fresh levies will be needed. And as we know there looks like there have been problems at the Wall that need to be settled. At this point I do not think Stannis can do anymore than put the Dreadfort under seige. He can not move against the Ryswells and the Dustins in the SE at the same time because he does not have the men at least not yet. So Rooses forces are on the defensive around the Dreadfort but in the SE he will probaly have a free hand til Stannis can start bringing in his sellswords, which will take at least a year if not longer.

So whats there for him to do in the SE. He has his alliance with the Freys, and they are close at hand. the Kingsroad through Maot Cailin might or might not be open to him but the Freys have Seagard and a few ships. They could probaly both start buliding ships but they are no match for the Ironborn at Sea. So why not throw in with Euron. The Reach will be fighting the GC and probaly Dorne. Their fleet must drive off Eurons then retake the Sheilds. So their bogged down. Then you have the Lannisters. Tywin and Kevan are dead, Cersei is alive but disgraced and cut off in KL along with her two kids(child lords are the bane of every house) Jaimie and the Imp have vanished. They have one army in the feild withering away in the Riverlands. The West is the richest prize in Westeros and its looking very weak right now. The few allies it has are distracted and the Lannisters lack a strong leader at this point. Do Frey, Euron and Bolton seem like the sort of guys to pass up an oppurtunity like that. With Eurons ships and sailors, Frey and Boltons Northmen they could pose a serious threat. Freys family has many marriages in the West(Crakehall, Lefford, Brax, Leyden off the top of my head) as well. The Farmans of Fair Isle seemed like they had an issue with Tywin not to long ago as well. So get some of these disgruntled bannermen to throw in with them and taking the West seems like a real possibility under the current situation.

Its also good propaganda for Roose. Hes made a peace/alliance with the Ironborn and an alliance with the Freys and is conquering the West just like Robb tried to and failed at. Hes attacking the Norths enemies while this King Stannis has the Northmen fighting each other at a great cost. On a practical level the loot and gold he might obtain in the West could be used to bring in sellswrds of his own to counter Stannis's. At the same time if things are going against him he could alway turn his cloak against Euron or the Freys, if he saw an advantage in it. Also unlike Robb he is backing someone for the throne, he would probaly have to come on board with Eurons plan to back/marry Danaerys. I do not know if he is going to buy into this or not or consider it a bunch of BS. Still if he can hold out a year or two and Dany comes with her dragons and Unsullied and he has been fighting her enemies(Starks, Stannis, Lannisters). I do not think Roose will hold a lot of stock in this, he will see Eurons dispatch of the Iron Fleet as him disposing of a rival by sending him on a wild goose chase half way across the world. Still as time goes by and if Dany starts coming closer and becoming more real it could start affecting his strategic thinking.

[Dead Wolf]

Let me put it this way. Lets say Davos brings Rickon back and Stannis takes WInterfell and lets also say that Bran makes his way back as well. At the end of the day Bran is 10 or 11 years old and a cripple, Rickon is 6 barely out of diapers. Stannis has been claiming he is the true King for 2 or 3 years, people have not flocked to him and the ones who have abandoned him after the Blackwater. I do not think even Roose will dispute Rickon and/or Brans claim to Winterfell but he will not bend the knee to them as his leige lord. He will continue to maintain that his house is now the paramount house of the North based on his greater expereince and the relative strength of his house compared to the Starks. The Dustins and the Ryswells will back him and perhaps some others wilingly or through coerscion(Flints of Flints Finger and the Tallharts). He also has his alliance with the Freys, the Lannisters are looking weak but there are other rebels ouit there he can align with(Euron, Aegon or Dany). Winterfell is not the key that people think it is for holding the North. Its a ruined castle and its peoples have been driven off. Stannis taking it does not mean he magically wins the war with Bolton unless Roose is stupid enough to stay there. Why would he? Ramsey has 600 or 700 of his own men, the Freys, the Manderlys, and perhaps the Cerwyns, the Hornwood men and maybe the Umbers. More than enough to defeat Stannis and his half starved army and to march on the Wall to get his wife back.

Even if Stannis gets it Roose still has the Dreadfort, Barrowton, the Ryswell castles and perhaps others. He could hold out for years. With his alliance with the Freys and perhaps with someone of more of use like Euron he can hold what he has and let winter and the enemies from beyond the wall do his work for him. Thats not to say Roose has not been dealt a few blows. It looks like he has lost the Karstarks and will probaly have Winterfell taken by his foes and this victory will hearten them for a time. Still they will have take the Dreadfort, which is not an easy task then root out his allies in the Rills and Barrowton. My thinking is that if Ramsey comes back to Winterfell with Stannis's sword and his head, with his army supposedly defeated Roose has no real reason to stay there at this point, its Ramseys castle and getting his wife and Reek back as well as the other important persons at the Wall are his problem/ or task.

My thinking is that Roose had no more use for Theon after he gave away Arya at the wedding. He wrote Euron asking how much he would give to have Theon executed just like he advised Robb to do in ASOS. Euron probaly told him that he would not give half a groat for him but he might have a coin or two to spare for the Cleftjaw and some of the fighters at Torrhens Square. Getting the Ironborn out of there helps secure the Tallharts so if he thinks Winterfell is secure I think he has other things to do. Some of his men want to go home to their families as well. Its not like Roose is planning on his army spending the whole winter at Winterfell. Nor do I beleive that he intends to rule from there either. So I think he splits his army more or less with some going home and others going South to Torhenns Square to finish off or accept the surrender of the last remaining outpost that they, the Iroborn, maintain in the North.

An alliance with Euron is the last thing Roose would want. Making an alliance with the House that took the Tallhhart castle would be the quickest way to lose them. There is nothing to suggest that the Flints would back Roose, Robin Flint was murdered at the RW, by the Freys, who Roose is friendly with. Ramsay will bring his own men into battle, and that means fewer Bolton swords in Winterfell itself, and there are 500 men from Robb's host with Roose, some of whom were from White Harbor. We don't know how many men Manderly could raise but we do know he only has 300 in Winterfell, and Robett Glover is a proven general and capable of leading Manderly's forces. 50 men remain to guard the Dreadfort, and they have Winterfell's people inside. The Dreadfort may already have fallen

[bemused]

Just because I say Barbrey is playing Roose doesn't mean I think Roose is a dimwit at all. Far from it. It means I think she's playing a very dangerous game,and that she's very brave to be doing so...but she is the one person among all the northern lords who can believably get close enough to him to perhaps be able to get a clue of what moves he might make ... as long as she can convince him that she has no suspicions of him.

I'm sure I am onto something about Domeric and I'm not alone. But whether or not he actually was Brandon's son , the point is that Roose may have had his doubts, hinted at by the way he compares Domeric's riding to Lyanna's ( while Lady Dustin says Brandon and Lyanna were like a pair of centaurs)..and by the peculiarity of that comparison, since Domeric was never old enough to be riding at the same time as Lyanna..

Like Manderly, Barbrey's willing to risk her life for the northern cause. She and her husband had no children, and at her death , the line will fall to the nearest Dustin relative ( whoever that is ), so if she's discovered, House Dustin's next in line won't pay the price.

Roose has no northern allies, just his own men and the Freys. Roose may be much smarter than the next guy, but really , no one should think that any of the northern houses buy the Frey version of the RW, or that they haven't noticed how their forces were decimated while under Roose's command while his own troops went relatively unscathed.

I think Roose will probably win back to the Dreadfort, and live to plot on , but in a weakened state. I don't think Stannis will either die , or take WF.. I think the Northmen themselves take WF for the Starks and Stannis will be able to rest his men there as guests, only.

[Truly Just Man]

Roose made a deal with the Lannister's when it was worth to make a deal with them. They are nowhere near the power they had at the time He has to face Stannis.

Things just didn't go his way. Not to mention He isn't expecting any Stark heirs to pop up.

Somebody said Roose died during the Red Wedding. Indeed He did, although It didn't look like this right after the Red Wedding. Things just changed for much worse for him.

[Dead Wolf]

Roose made a deal with the Lannister's when it was worth to make a deal with them. They are nowhere near the power they had at the time He has to face Stannis.

Things just didn't go his way. Not to mention He isn't expecting any Stark heirs to pop up.

Somebody said Roose died during the Red Wedding. Indeed He did, although It didn't look like this right after the Red Wedding. Things just changed for much worse for him.

Actually based on Theon's chapter in Barrowton, he was expecting at least one of the Stark boys to pop up

[Truly Just Man]

Actually based on Theon's chapter in Barrowton, he was expecting at least one of the Stark boys to pop up

Probably missed that, thanks for pointing it out :cheers:

Anyway He wasn't expecting so much to change for worse since He made a deal with Tywin. I just can't see a happy ending for him

[Dead Wolf]

Probably missed that, thanks for pointing it out :cheers:

No problem :cheers:, and I agree, Roose was dealt a bad hand just like Robb

[The Broke Howard Hughes]

Roose went all in at the World Series of Poker with a so-so hand and and the cards didn't fall his way. I don't blame luck, I blame him for his predicament. If book history teaches us anything its that even if he survives somehow it won't be as Warden of the North. Too many people in the North want him dead, anybody who stands with him will either die or switch sides. I don't doubt he has allies now but they don't care enough about him or his cause to stand beside him when the other shoe drops.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Roose doesn't get played. You're spinning ridiculous conspiracy theories with no evidence to back them up. Domeric Bolton was actually a Stark bastard? I'm sure you're on to something there :dunce:

I don't think Domeric was Brandon's son, but I'm also pretty comfortable saying that Barbrey is not Team Bolton.

[Lord Artos Llyn]

Roose went all in at the World Series of Poker with a so-so hand and and the cards didn't fall his way.

Exactly. True, of course he couldn't predict that Tywin was going to die or that Stannis would take his forces north. That doesn't change the fact that he was going to end up with a hundred northern knives aimed at his back regardless. He personally participated in a plan that saw the extermination of a line that the north had been loyal to for 8000 years, the deaths of dozens of sons and other family members of prominent houses and the slaughter of thousands of northern soldiers. In one night he turned nearly the entire north against him, nobles and commoners alike, and unlike his newfound 'friends' - who are a thousand miles away, strained by war already and of dubious trustworthiness as proved by the very plot he participated in - these enemies are going to be the ones who surround him on all sides. Because let's face it, Stannis and other developments that have happened since the Red Wedding are still not even as great a threat as the ones that have been with him all along. Stannis might very well freeze to death before he can even engage Bolton while on the flipside most of the prominent northern houses - Glover, Mormont, Reed - have refused to accept his rule from the beginning and the most powerful house that's 'loyal' to him is eating his allies under his own roof.

So, no, Roose's plans weren't guaranteed to fail. He got some bad luck as pretty much every character in the series that isn't named Baelish has had. But it was still a massive gamble and for someone who is portrayed as cold and calculated it seems somewhat out of character for him, which is why I think he was somewhat delusional. He got greedy plain and simple. Tywin certainly wouldn't have taken those odds.

[Ramsay Gimp]

I don't think Domeric was Brandon's son, but I'm also pretty comfortable saying that Barbrey is not Team Bolton.

I know, we've argued at length about it before. I think most of what she says to Theon is true. She admires and is fond of Roose, loathes Ramsay, and hates Ned Stark. We'll just have to see where the chips fall

[Ramsay Gimp]

Roose went all in at the World Series of Poker with a so-so hand and and the cards didn't fall his way. I don't blame luck, I blame him for his predicament. If book history teaches us anything its that even if he survives somehow it won't be as Warden of the North. Too many people in the North want him dead, anybody who stands with him will either die or switch sides. I don't doubt he has allies now but they don't care enough about him or his cause to stand beside him when the other shoe drops.

A so-so hand? He wipes out most of his rivals in one stroke, gets a Stark girl to cement his claim, gains the backing of the Iron Throne, and returns to the North with the most troops of any House by a large margin. That's a good hand. I'd have taken the deal too

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I know, we've argued at length about it before. I think most of what she says to Theon is true. She admires and is fond of Roose, loathes Ramsay, and hates Ned Stark. We'll just have to see where the chips fall

And what is the point of saying those things to Theon? Why is she doing that? And I mean it's not like anyone in this series ever lies or misrepresents themselves ...

[kiasyd]

A so-so hand? He wipes out most of his rivals in one stroke, gets a Stark girl to cement his claim, gains the backing of the Iron Throne, and returns to the North with the most troops of any House by a large margin. That's a good hand. I'd have taken the deal too

He also holds both Balon Greyjoy heirs...