Slaughter in Winterfell

[franbatista123]

He also holds both Balon Greyjoy heirs...

Stannis holds them... and at one point Roose only had Theon, but not Asha.

[Lady Arya's Song]

Some extra detail. Sorry but its how I run..noticing the small details.

Davos POV He is with Lord Godric and is told that The Lionstar put in at Sisterton twelve days ago to fill her water casks. She was full of Freys making for WhiteHarbor.

In Davos POV he notices the warship named Lionstar (Lannister warship) in WhiteHarbor Manderly's port.

His next chapter in the court of Manderly. He notes the crowded court.

Near the top of the hall stood a dozen men in blue and silver-grey of House Frey.

His final chapter.

He is speaking with Manderly, Glover, and Wex. Lord Manderly is cluing Davos in about his real feelings regarding the Freys and Boltons. He has a scheme against the Boltons and the Freys. He tells Davos that by using the head of a common man he has convinced the Freys that he is sincere in his loyalty to them now. The Freys returned his son's bones on the ship Lionstar but he has been holding out until Wyis was returned to him alive and ok.

He then tells Davos the Freys came by sea..ie LionStar and they have no horses. He will present each one of them a horse as a guest gift.

So he actually gave out 12 horses, not three.

I am sure Rhaegar Frey, Symond Frey, Ser Jared did not just ride off as three, the entire group of Freys were mounted for safety sake.

And the wedding pie he brought ie the Frey pie is full of 12 Freys not 3. LOL

I have always wondered how only 3 men could feed the whole army in Winterfell but now a dozen Frey men could make for some huge pies.

Gotta love Lord Manderly and I have wondered how that all went down. Manderly's men killing a dozen Freys on the road and then taking the "meat" to the kitchens in WF? Or back to White Harbor's kitchens? Did the cooks actually carry the meat to WF's kitchens and then make the pie crust? To serve piping hot? Either way Manderly scored a dozen so far.

[The Broke Howard Hughes]

A so-so hand? He wipes out most of his rivals in one stroke, gets a Stark girl to cement his claim, gains the backing of the Iron Throne, and returns to the North with the most troops of any House by a large margin. That's a good hand. I'd have taken the deal too

Yeah but you're supposed to make sure the game is over afterwards, which it wasn't. Sure he wiped out his competition but he made enemies of nearly the entire North, how could he not see that coming? How could he not consider his future rests in the hands of Tywin being alive. Thats a huge gamble. I understand the gamble from an ambition standpoint. I think it was a stupid long term move and seems incredibly short sighted. But I get the notion of taking the gamble when the opportunity arises.

[jarl the climber]

He also holds both Balon Greyjoy heirs...

At this point Asha herself admits that she is more or less discredited because of the Kingsmoot and her loss at Deepwood Motte and Theon is a wreck of a man, someone whom the Ironborn would never follow at this point in time. I'm refering to Stannis

[jarl the climber]

An alliance with Euron is the last thing Roose would want. Making an alliance with the House that took the Tallhhart castle would be the quickest way to lose them. There is nothing to suggest that the Flints would back Roose, Robin Flint was murdered at the RW, by the Freys, who Roose is friendly with. Ramsay will bring his own men into battle, and that means fewer Bolton swords in Winterfell itself, and there are 500 men from Robb's host with Roose, some of whom were from White Harbor. We don't know how many men Manderly could raise but we do know he only has 300 in Winterfell, and Robett Glover is a proven general and capable of leading Manderly's forces. 50 men remain to guard the Dreadfort, and they have Winterfell's people inside. The Dreadfort may already have fallen

There are three branches at least of House Flint. Widows Watch on the East coast is held by one branch and Manderly beleives they will follow his lead. Then you have the First Flints who are the main trunk that the branches grow out of and they are all ready with Stannis. Then you have the Flints of Flints Finger on the West coast near Cape Kraken which is a complete mystery. I have no idea which of these houses Robin Flint was from but the Flints of Flints Finger could be merely distant cousins to the others branches.

The figure for the number of men holding the Dreadfort is speculative. I think it was given to us in a Jon PoV and the figure was given to Stannis from the Karstarks who were trying to lead him into a trap. I think its more likely that it has a larger garrison but its speculative. I can not prove this but its more consistent with Rooses cautious nature.

I agree that it also not clear how many men Manderly can raise or use to man his fleet.

Still if there is a sizable force in the Dreadfort area its harder for Manderly to deploy them away from home while this force exists. Right now Roose is at Winterfell to bait Stannis, his preference would have been to fight on his own lands at the Dreadfort. If he believes that Stannis is dead he has no reason to stay there. His men(about 3,000 or so) probaly want to go home and he still has Ironborn at Torhenns Square. I do not think the Ryswells or Lady Dustin are not really looking to stay any longer than they have to. The source we have for Stannis's death is the pink letter and its a very unreliable document, its veracity seems to be in question but its not totally at odds at what we know Stannis was thinking. We have seen Jons reaction to this news but what would be Boltons and if it is trap for Roose/Ramsey how long will it take to spring shut and if one or both of them are caught in it. Without the girl there is no legal claim to Winterfell, Ramsey treated her horribly, and Roose knows that there are trueborn heirs still alive possibly. It just seems like a mess, one that he would probaly leave Ramsey to clean up. I just think he wants to leave Winterfell as do others, Stannis's defeat gives him an excuse to do that.

Even if he gets caught in Winterfell and someone throws the gates open for the enemy, he has enough men to to try and cut his way out. I'm not sure who exactly is guarding the gates but security has proably improved since the incident with Theon and the girl. I think this sort of thing would be much harder to do while Roose, Dustin and the Ryswells are still there.

As far as the Tallharts go, there castle is held by the Ironborn. Most of the men seem to have been killed, it mostly women or children left if Roose takes the castle or it surrenders, it seems like he would be in a posistion to take hostages from the Tallharts and keep them on his side.

I've just come to see the Ironbon, the Freys and Bolton as the have-not powers of Westeros. If Stannis tries to oppose Euron with Theons claim and Bolton survives then him and Euron would have a common enemy. Bolton is also allied to the Freys by marriage and the Freys have just gained control of a port(Seagard) that is on Ironmans Bay. Black Walder is in command there. hes not a likable fellow but hes not stupid it seems like he would see the need of having some sort of policy regarding developments on the Iron Islands. Euron can destroy there trade and run off their fishing fleet or he can make them rich by selling his plunder there, filling its brothels and buying its timber. I don't think some sort of alliance developing out of this is ridiculous. Neither Frey or Bolton are represented on the Council. The Throne has refused to punish the sparrows criticising the RW. Lancle broke his marriage with Ami. Jaimie publicly humiliated Freys heir and made insolent demands regarding the prisoners. The Throne has refused to rule favorably on certian claims that have been made to it by Lord Frey. What we do not know is what the Frey reaction is or will be to Kevan death, Cerseis disgrace, Aegons invasion, we are not even sure how they regard the rise of Euron on the Iron Islands. Its hard to beleive that they would not start looking around and perhaps see that working with Euron might not be the best move at this point.

[kiasyd]

Stannis holds them... and at one point Roose only had Theon, but not Asha.

Right, that's precisely what I meant, it was a misquote on my part :-P

[Ramsay Gimp]

Yeah but you're supposed to make sure the game is over afterwards, which it wasn't. Sure he wiped out his competition but he made enemies of nearly the entire North, how could he not see that coming? How could he not consider his future rests in the hands of Tywin being alive. Thats a huge gamble. I understand the gamble from an ambition standpoint. I think it was a stupid long term move and seems incredibly short sighted. But I get the notion of taking the gamble when the opportunity arises.

You're acting as if Roose isn't aware of how the Northmen feel. Read his conversation with Ramsay, he knows he has to tread lightly. But with a fake "Arya" and the most troops, he would have been able to weather the storm if it weren't for some shitty luck. Let's say Ramsay impregnated "Arya" and they had a son. Are you saying the Northern lords would have killed Ned Stark's grandson just to get at Roose?

[Truly Just Man]

You're acting as if Roose isn't aware of how the Northmen feel. Read his conversation with Ramsay, he knows he has to tread lightly. But with a fake "Arya" and the most troops, he would have been able to weather the storm if it weren't for some shitty luck. Let's say Ramsay impregnated "Arya" and they had a son. Are you saying the Northern lords would have killed Ned Stark's grandson just to get at Roose?

You know "Arya" isn't Arya, right? Therefore her child isn't Ned Starks' grandchild. This shall most probably become a well-known fact for pretty much the whole realm at some point.

[Dead Wolf]

There are three branches at least of House Flint. Widows Watch on the East coast is held by one branch and Manderly beleives they will follow his lead. Then you have the First Flints who are the main trunk that the branches grow out of and they are all ready with Stannis. Then you have the Flints of Flints Finger on the West coast near Cape Kraken which is a complete mystery. I have no idea which of these houses Robin Flint was from but the Flints of Flints Finger could be merely distant cousins to the others branches.

The figure for the number of men holding the Dreadfort is speculative. I think it was given to us in a Jon PoV and the figure was given to Stannis from the Karstarks who were trying to lead him into a trap. I think its more likely that it has a larger garrison but its speculative. I can not prove this but its more consistent with Rooses cautious nature.

I agree that it also not clear how many men Manderly can raise or use to man his fleet.

Still if there is a sizable force in the Dreadfort area its harder for Manderly to deploy them away from home while this force exists. Right now Roose is at Winterfell to bait Stannis, his preference would have been to fight on his own lands at the Dreadfort. If he believes that Stannis is dead he has no reason to stay there. His men(about 3,000 or so) probaly want to go home and he still has Ironborn at Torhenns Square. I do not think the Ryswells or Lady Dustin are not really looking to stay any longer than they have to. The source we have for Stannis's death is the pink letter and its a very unreliable document, its veracity seems to be in question but its not totally at odds at what we know Stannis was thinking. We have seen Jons reaction to this news but what would be Boltons and if it is trap for Roose/Ramsey how long will it take to spring shut and if one or both of them are caught in it. Without the girl there is no legal claim to Winterfell, Ramsey treated her horribly, and Roose knows that there are trueborn heirs still alive possibly. It just seems like a mess, one that he would probaly leave Ramsey to clean up. I just think he wants to leave Winterfell as do others, Stannis's defeat gives him an excuse to do that.

Yes, Bolton has no reason to stay at WF once Stannis is defeated, but the other lords have no reason to hold back once the battle's over. Roose and Ramsay wil have lost hundreds, maybe thousands, of Dreadfort men. The Freys will have suffered losses as well. Roose is weakest right after the battle, and the northern lords are only in WF because they have no choice, and they hate him. Manderly knows what happened at WF, Stout hates Ramsay, Locke cast his lot with Manderly, Whoresbane is only there to keep his nephew alive and is very angry at the Freys for killing his kin, the Hornwood men hate Ramsay and don't forget, Lady Hornwood was a Manderly before she was married. If the storm is still raging, leaving the castle is a very bad idea. Winterfell is also running out of food, but the nearest castle is Castle Cerwyn, and the Cerwyn's aren't like to shelter the man who's responsible for Cley Cerwyn's death. Roose also brought men from Robb's host with him, who saw men they'd fought with and befriended cut down mercilessly by Bolton men, and came from the lands of some of the lords in WF, White Harbor included.

[C0bR]

That 'Arya' is not Arya is probably as good of a secret as the Stark boys being alive.

[Dead Wolf]

I love how you attempt to pick apart my point byby saying it's conjecture but turn around and do the exact same thing.

I'm in need of a reread so bear with me but doesn't Lady Dustin warn Theon several times of how much trouble Roose is in because of Ramsay's acts with 'Arya' and him being surrounded by enemies? And here's where I may need reminding but where exactly does Lady Dustin bestow all this confidence in Roose's ability to maneuver through anything? You say we're in denial but blind faith in somebody who made a snap decision based on ego, delusions of grandeur, and ambition, who's luck has clearly run out is a better definition of being in denial isn't it?

"Roose is not pleased, tell your bastard that... Dressing the girl in grey and white serves no purpose if the girl is left to sob. The Freys may not care, but the northmen... they fear the Dreadfort, but they love the Starks"