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"The Northerners will never forget this" - The long term strategic folly of the RW?


AegonTargaryen

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Brutality like that either completely deflates or galvanizes a cause.



Depends on the people in charge at the moment.



A bunch of Lysa Arryns? She's a coward, so the momentum is lost.



A gang of Catelyn Starks? She's a goon, so shit gets done.



And it all doesn't HAVE to be call the banners or go home.


It might be a long game ala Doran Martell.


Or a Faceless man hiring to butcher a Lannister wedding party.



Many ways to go about things.


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well yea but if tywin was still alive it would have been a warning for northerners who would want to rebel again. Heck all he had to do is send a message or picture of the KITN with a dire wolf head and play the rains of castamere and most notherners would be like F this, we all know what happened when we went south to mess with the throne.

Yes, but that whole issue is completely averted in the event of a northern rebellion though. If Robb Stark was King in the North, he would have probably survived since he would have no reason to go near the Twins or approach the Westerlands. But he was also King of the Trident, and that's how Tywin got to him.

A future Northern rebellion can take place in the winter time. The northmen don't have to attack the South at all, they can just wait for any morons who are foolish enough to invade the frozen wasteland and pick them off any survivors crannogman style. There's no reason to go 'south to mess with the throne' in this situation, it's more like, 'F the throne, we're doing our own thing; if you want to come get us, the door is wide open'.

So true.

You can't murder the whole world, Lannisters.

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well yea but if tywin was still alive it would have been a warning for northerners who would want to rebel again. Heck all he had to do is send a message or picture of the KITN with a dire wolf head and play the rains of castamere and most notherners would be like F this, we all know what happened when we went south to mess with the throne.

That's certainly what Tywin thinks, and he's wrong. It should have been obvious, as well: the north didn't fall into line after Ned Stark got killed, just the opposite in fact. Why would the Red Wedding, a fundamentally similar act, produce fundamentally different results? The northerners will just wait until they are strong enough, and then they'll punch back twice as hard.

There's a line in the show (I don't think it was in the books, but I take the sentiment at least to be canonical): "we [Lannisters] could establish a dynasty that will last for a thousand years." But things like the Red Wedding will still be remembered a thousand years later. It'll pass into legend and song and that hatred will fester. For a guy whose focus is on the long-term health of his family, Tywin seems to fatally overestimate how cowed and broken his defeated enemies are. It's not just the north either, he made the same mistake with Dorne.

After 400 years of "union" Scotland NOW has a strong independence movement, so I think that the demand for independence will be strong

Yeah but wasn't that just because of Braveheart? :D

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The Freys, Boltons, and Lannisters screwed themselves with the Red Wedding. The Boltons will likely be obliterated by the next book but the Freys and Lannisters are just to massive to wipe out all of them. It's unfeasable to think so. But some people are gonna give it an honest shot ;). Unfortunately the few good Lannisters and Frey will likely die and suffer as well as the bad ones. The Twins will likely be up for grabs for a noble house, and maybe even CasterlyRock if Tyrion doesn't get it.

Edit:

And what I find hilarious is that Walder Frey thought it would put his house in better standing cuz in reality it just magnified the animosity towards his house. They went from being looked down upon to being downright hated. Walder screwed the pooch and his house on this one and I really hope he figures that out before he dies in agony and misery.

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That's certainly what Tywin thinks, and he's wrong. It should have been obvious, as well: the north didn't fall into line after Ned Stark got killed, just the opposite in fact. Why would the Red Wedding, a fundamentally similar act, produce fundamentally different results? The northerners will just wait until they are strong enough, and then they'll punch back twice as hard.

There's a line in the show (I don't think it was in the books, but I take the sentiment at least to be canonical): "we [Lannisters] could establish a dynasty that will last for a thousand years." But things like the Red Wedding will still be remembered a thousand years later. It'll pass into legend and song and that hatred will fester. For a guy whose focus is on the long-term health of his family, Tywin seems to fatally overestimate how cowed and broken his defeated enemies are. It's not just the north either, he made the same mistake with Dorne.

Yeah but wasn't that just because of Braveheart? :D

this is why i think tywin wasnt that competent. He just kills and doesnt care about the consequences
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The Freys, Boltons, and Lannisters screwed themselves with the Red Wedding. The Boltons will likely be obliterated by the next book but the Freys and Lannisters are just to massive to wipe out all of them. It's unfeasable to think so. But some people are gonna give it an honest shot ;). Unfortunately the few good Lannisters and Frey will likely die and suffer as well as the bad ones. The Twins will likely be up for grabs for a noble house, and maybe even CasterlyRock if Tyrion doesn't get it.Edit:And what I find hilarious is that Walder Frey thought it would put his house in better standing cuz in reality it just magnified the animosity towards his house. They went from being looked down upon to being downright hated. Walder screwed the pooch and his house on this one and I really hope he figures that out before he dies in agony and misery.

Walder thought he would be the Lord Paramount of the Riverlands. No one had any clue about Littlefinger.

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Walder thought he would be the Lord Paramount of the Riverlands. No one had any clue about Littlefinger.

doesnt matter. Who would marry one of their line to a tainted line like the Freys. Nobody and since one cannot legally force a marriage they would be screwed in marital ties. Their name is also now a household name for dishonor. He also pissed off every northern and Riverland house during the RW and the pure arrogance thinking they would buy some pure grade A bullshit story about how Robb and his men turned into werewolves and started killing everyone. LP status wouldn't mean shit at that point.
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I think the blame for the RW is firmly fixed on the Freys. They're the ones who violated guest-right, not the Lannisters.

My view is that if Tywin had lived, he'd have served up the Freys to the Northern lords, to win them over.

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I think, Red Wedding or not, the North would never have bowed to a Lannister monarchy. The return of the Stark girls would maybe be considered a gesture of good faith, but no way would they have ended the war over a mere gesture. They were following a King who would stop at nothing to see every last Lannister decimated, for both personal and moral reasons. All the RW ended up accomplishing was to push the north back until they had aquired a new leader who would no doubt comtinue their conquest. "The North Remembers" - those are words not to be taken lightly at all.

And as for the Renly situation, had he survived the Starks would have allied with him anyway, as that was what Cat was there for in the first place. If he would've taken the Iron Throne, there would have been Stark forces at his side, so there would be no need for offerings of fealty. And it would have had to have been Robb to take Jofferys head!

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It was an incredible stupid political move. Besides the whole Northern independence movement, Tywin delivered a direct attack on the whole feudal system. Walder Frey took his liege lord captive and got Riverrun by the Lannister Government; Roose Bolton killed his liege lord and was named Warden of the North.



So what next? Will the Lannisters encourage the Redwynes to kill Mace Tyrell? No House in the 7 Kingdoms will be safe as long as Houses Lannister, Frey and Bolton exist.



Edited for spelling


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The Red Wedding is not the only wrong that Iron Throne did to the Starks. Although under different dynasties, they kept harrassing the Starks amd the houses loyal to them for Three generations.

1) Lyanna Stark, "kidnapped" by Rhaegar Targaryen, The Crown Prince to the Iron Throne, Lord of Dragonstone.

2) Lord Rickard Stark of Winterfell and Warden of the North, burned to death in a trial by combat against fire; "The Champion of the Targaryens", picked by Aerys Targaryen, The Second of his name, King of the Andals, the Rhoynar and the First Men, Lord of the Seven Kingdoms and the Protector of The Realm. His company of 200 men were killed.

3) Brandon Stark, Heir to Winterfell, strangled to death while trying to save his father from burning, by orders of Aerys Targaryen, the Second of his name, King of the Andals, the Rhoynar and the First Men, Lord of the Seven Kingdoms and the Protector of The Realm.

4) Lady, the direwolf belonging to Sansa Stark, executed by Queen Cersei Lannister's orders on the Kingsroad.

5) The household of Eddard Stark in King's Landing: Arya Stark went missing, presuned dead, Sansa Stark kept hostage by the Lannisters engaged to Joffrey Baratheon, Jeyne Poole kept hostage by Littlefinger to be trained as a whore; the rest are murdered including Septa Mordane, Wayon Poole and Jory Cassel.

6) Lord Eddard Stark of Winterfell and Warden of the North, the Hand of the King to Robert Baratheon, the first of his name, King of the Andals, the Rhoynar and the First Men, Lord of the Seven Kingdoms and the Protector of The Realm, executed at the Great Sept of Baelor in King's Landing after being accused of treason on orders of Joffrey Baratheon, the first of his name, King of the Andals, the Rhoynar and the First Men, Lord of the Seven Kingdoms and the Protector of The Realm.

7) Noble Causalities during the War of the Five Kings.

8) The Northern Host that is killed by treachery of Ramsay Snow, the Bastard of Dreadfort.

9) The Red Wedding Causalities

-Robb Stark, the first of his name, King in the North and King of the Trident, killed by Roose Bolton, Lord of the Dreadfort and Warden of the North.

-Lady Catelyn Tully, Widow of Lord Eddard Stark, mother to Robb Stark.

-Smalljon Umber, Heir to the Last Hearth.

-Ser Wendel Manderly.

-Lady Dacey Mormont.

-Donnel Locke

-Robin Flint

-Owen Norrey

-Lucas Blackwood

-Grey Wind

10)Red Wedding Captives

-Lord Greatjon Umber

-Lord Edmure Tully

-Patrek Mallister

-Ser Marq Piper

After all these treacherous acts and murders, there is no way for the North to forget, or to forgive, the Iron Throne.

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It doesn't matter if Tywin would have been able to juggle around the different unstable regions in the Kingdom for years to come. The nature of of the massacre and the pretext that it was carried out was extremely profane when considering the culture of the Seven Kingdoms. A region/people that hold to somewhat different customs, but share many others with their neigbors, is going to look much closer at what sets them apart from their neighbors if they are treated like that.


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It doesn't matter if Tywin would have been able to juggle around the different unstable regions in the Kingdom for years to come. The nature of of the massacre and the pretext that it was carried out was extremely profane when considering the culture of the Seven Kingdoms. A region/people that hold to somewhat different customs, but share many others with their neigbors, is going to look much closer at what sets them apart from their neighbors if they are treated like that.

Not only the Northern lords were affected by it, the other Riverland lords like Blackwood, Mallister etc. were affected by it, too. The Lannisters managed to turn two regions against them for centuries to come.

On a side note: I do not comprehend, how Walder Frey imagined to repair relations with the other Riverlords after the Red Wedding. If it is true, that he thought his family would be made Lord Paramount of the Riverlands, then he must have anticipated, that vassal lords, whose families and troops have been taken captive/killed while he gave them a sacred promise of protection (guest right) would not be vassals he could rely upon in the future.

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I think the blame for the RW is firmly fixed on the Freys. They're the ones who violated guest-right, not the Lannisters.

My view is that if Tywin had lived, he'd have served up the Freys to the Northern lords, to win them over.

I think, that it was for both Roose Bolton and Tywin Lannister impossible to distance himself from the Red Wedding after certain events had taken place.

-Roose Bolton like a miracle survives the Red Wedding with his whole host intact. Then he gets named Warden of the North by the Lannisters and they give him (a fake) Arya as a bride in order for him to claim Winterfell.

-After the Red Wedding the Freys get Riverrun and Darry, two important seats in the Riverlands and two important Lannisters (Devan and Lancel) marry or are engaged to Frey brides.

Then three Freys travel to White Harbour on board of the "Lion Star" (a ship clearly in posession of House Lannister) in order to accept fealty from White Harbour for the Iron Throne.

The only one, who actually thinks, that some Freys should be punished for their role in the Red Wedding is Cersei Lannister (one of her brighter notions). Besides, all of the Riverlords know, that Walder Frey is too cautious, to do something massive like the Red Wedding without protection from some highter authority and the Blackfish even remarks that the Red Wedding "smells like Tywin Lannister".

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I believe Northern independence, is a certainty. The northerners will not trust the Tyrells or the Lannisters. What was done broke the customs and rites in their society and that is a huge deal. It cannot be repaired. Stannis and most of his host are made up of northerners they will help him win the price will be their independence.


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The Red Wedding is not the only wrong that Iron Throne did to the Starks. Although under different dynasties, they kept harrassing the Starks amd the houses loyal to them for Three generations.

1) Lyanna Stark, "kidnapped" by Rhaegar Targaryen, The Crown Prince to the Iron Throne, Lord of Dragonstone.

2) Lord Rickard Stark of Winterfell and Warden of the North, burned to death in a trial by combat against fire; "The Champion of the Targaryens", picked by Aerys Targaryen, The Second of his name, King of the Andals, the Rhoynar and the First Men, Lord of the Seven Kingdoms and the Protector of The Realm. His company of 200 men were killed.

3) Brandon Stark, Heir to Winterfell, strangled to death while trying to save his father from burning, by orders of Aerys Targaryen, the Second of his name, King of the Andals, the Rhoynar and the First Men, Lord of the Seven Kingdoms and the Protector of The Realm.

4) Lady, the direwolf belonging to Sansa Stark, executed by Queen Cersei Lannister's orders on the Kingsroad.

5) The household of Eddard Stark in King's Landing: Arya Stark went missing, presuned dead, Sansa Stark kept hostage by the Lannisters engaged to Joffrey Baratheon, Jeyne Poole kept hostage by Littlefinger to be trained as a whore; the rest are murdered including Septa Mordane, Wayon Poole and Jory Cassel.

6) Lord Eddard Stark of Winterfell and Warden of the North, the Hand of the King to Robert Baratheon, the first of his name, King of the Andals, the Rhoynar and the First Men, Lord of the Seven Kingdoms and the Protector of The Realm, executed at the Great Sept of Baelor in King's Landing after being accused of treason on orders of Joffrey Baratheon, the first of his name, King of the Andals, the Rhoynar and the First Men, Lord of the Seven Kingdoms and the Protector of The Realm.

7) Noble Causalities during the War of the Five Kings.

8) The Northern Host that is killed by treachery of Ramsay Snow, the Bastard of Dreadfort.

9) The Red Wedding Causalities

-Robb Stark, the first of his name, King in the North and King of the Trident, killed by Roose Bolton, Lord of the Dreadfort and Warden of the North.

-Lady Catelyn Tully, Widow of Lord Eddard Stark, mother to Robb Stark.

-Smalljon Umber, Heir to the Last Hearth.

-Ser Wendel Manderly.

-Lady Dacey Mormont.

-Donnel Locke

-Robin Flint

-Owen Norrey

-Lucas Blackwood

-Grey Wind

10)Red Wedding Captives

-Lord Greatjon Umber

-Lord Edmure Tully

-Patrek Mallister

-Ser Marq Piper

After all these treacherous acts and murders, there is no way for the North to forget, or to forgive, the Iron Throne.

Well said !!!

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Tywin's plan does seem to be in line with Machiavellian thinking about conquered Kingdoms. The North centres around the Starks and his idea was to continue the Stark line in union with the Lannisters. He didn't know about Rickon and Bran, so the Stark/Lannister hybrid would be rightful ruler of Winterfell.



According to 'The Prince' his plan makes perfect sense, but other players ruined it. The Red Wedding would be a permanent black mark, but assuming the future Lord Stark remains close to his cousin the King how would the North deal with that? Do they turn on the Starks? Do they try and get the future Lord Stark to turn on his father and cousins for the act committed by them against an uncle he never knew?


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According to 'The Prince' his plan makes perfect sense, but other players ruined it.

Machiavelli says that while it's ideal to be both feared and loved being feared is safer, but the prince should inspire fear in a way that doesn't lead to him being hated. What is Tywin if not hated? His own son killed him because Tywin chose not just to end Tyrion's marriage but to do so by means of a traumatising gang-rape. The Martells plotted against him in his lifetime and hate him enough to want his innocent grandchildren dead. Manderly is eating Tywin's allies the Freys and merrily feeding them to the Boltons because the Red Wedding made Frey/Bolton/Lannister rule an unacceptable proposition. Tywin ruined things for himself by being short-sighted and inspiring hate because his ego and fear of laughter meant that he "had to" commit atrocities like Tysha's rape, the brutal murder of Elia and her children, the unleashing of Gregor on the Riverlands, and the Red Wedding. He was begging for the northmen to turn on the hypothetical child of Sansa/Tyrion by associating it not with marriage alliance and peace negotiations but the absolute humiliation and blasphemous slaughter of not only the Starks but just about every single northern house.

Being hated may work as long as you hold on to absolute power. But it's foolish to assume that such a state of things can last forever. If you slip, especially when the memories of your crimes are still fresh, people will be lining up at McManderly's for their slice of no-holds-barred revenge.

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Tywin's plan does seem to be in line with Machiavellian thinking about conquered Kingdoms. The North centres around the Starks and his idea was to continue the Stark line in union with the Lannisters. He didn't know about Rickon and Bran, so the Stark/Lannister hybrid would be rightful ruler of Winterfell.

According to 'The Prince' his plan makes perfect sense, but other players ruined it. The Red Wedding would be a permanent black mark, but assuming the future Lord Stark remains close to his cousin the King how would the North deal with that? Do they turn on the Starks? Do they try and get the future Lord Stark to turn on his father and cousins for the act committed by them against an uncle he never knew?

If Tyrion really had raped Sansa and gotten a boy on her, the Northerners would probably regard this child more as a grandchild of Tywin Lannister than a grandchild of Eddard Stark. I do not think, that the Northerners would have followed this child, especially if Robb's fear had come true and the Lannisters had killed Sansa Stark after the birth. Remember, that this child would only have one Northern grandfather, while having two Lannister grandparents and one Tully grandmother and would probably have spent a lot of his early years in the South.

The child would probably be the rightful ruler, but what use are laws if you cannot enforce them.

This situation reminds me of Emmon Frey, who waved his sheep of paper proclaiming him the rightful lord of Riverrun and noone cared.

There is a reason, that the North was the only region, that the Andals were not able to conquer. Look at Stannis' knight, who by all acounts die in large numbers, because they are not able to deal with the cold.

IMO, the Northern lords would probably declare one of their own families, who has Stark blood (probably the Karstarks) as rightful lords of Winterfell and the Iron Throne could have either accepted it or faced some bloody secession war, that they probably would have lost.

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