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"The Northerners will never forget this" - The long term strategic folly of the RW?


AegonTargaryen

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Tywin Lannister was a competent tactician (at the very least), and managed to win a war without ever winning a battle. On the surface it seems like the Red Wedding was a strategic grand slam -wipe out the enemy army, and murder the Northern King and his bannermen swiftly in one night. But long term it seems that the Red Wedding was bound to haunt the Iron Throne.



In my interpretation, Robb Stark was declared King in the North for a lack of better options. The lord of Winterfell was beheaded, the Northmen thus couldn't hold to Joff. The Baratheon brother with the weaker claim looked strongest, and the elder brother's prospects seemed bleak. So the Northmen said "fuck it, let's just declare ourselves a separate kingdom." By this point however, I don't think things were past a point of no return. If Joff had been deposed by Tywin, Tommen had ascended, the Stark girls returned, I suspect Robb Stark could have been brought to consider laying down his arms and ending the rebellion.



Similarly, If Renly had taken King's Landing, returned the Stark girls, sent the Starks Joff's head, Robb may have sworn fealty. Same deal with Stannis. The point I'm making is that after 300 years of union, before the RW I don't see Northern nationalism as having been as entrenched as it is at this point in the books. I simply cannot see the North bending the knee to anyone other than a Stark. *MAYBE to Jon if he took the throne, and MAYBE to Aegon if he took a Stark girl etc etc.



I think at this point the RW has become a catalyst for Northern ultra-nationalism, and has made a Lannister monarchy impossible. The struggle is no longer about avenging Eddard Stark, it's about independence. The North knows no king but the king in the North, whose name is Stark.



Thoughts? Any scenarios by which the Northerners can be brought back into the seven kingdoms without a half-Stark at the helm?



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If there were Dragons ie Targs, then the North may consider that they had some allegiance.



They will not yield to a Lannister.



Should Sansa or Arya marry the King of the IT (or Rickon/Jon/Bran marries Dany, then perhaps the North will swear allegiance



After 400 years of "union" Scotland NOW has a strong independence movement, so I think that the demand for independence will be strong


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I seem to remember the westermen, under lord Tywin's leadership, wining three big battles; the battle of Riverrun, the battle of the Green Fork, and the decisive battle of Blackwater Bay, along with lots of other small engagements like the Golden Tooth and Duskendale. But yes ... whatever.

The RW was a brilliant plan and Stannis and the Stark loyalists would be dead meat if lord Tywin was still alive. We know this because the lord of Sweetsister affirms he would have sent Davos back to king's landing if there had still been strong government there. With Davos a prisoner of the crown he can't go to White Harbour, Manderly can't prove his loyalty, leading to the release of his son, and, as a consequence, the likely catalyst in the Bolton defeat at Winterfell, the defection of the Manderlys, would not be able to occur.

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Tywin did the same when he screwed the Martells and when he screwed Tyrion (although Tyrion was himself to blame to an extent). This isn't exactly breaking news. He just couldn't take any affront to his pride.


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I seem to remember the westermen, under lord Tywin's leadership, wining three big battles; the battle of Riverrun, the battle of the Green Fork, and the decisive battle of Blackwater Bay, along with lots of other small engagements like the Golden Tooth and Duskendale. But yes ... whatever.

The RW was a brilliant plan and Stannis and the Stark loyalists would be dead meat if lord Tywin was still alive. We know this because the lord of Sweetsister affirms he would have sent Davos back to king's landing if there had still been strong government there. With Davos a prisoner of the crown he can't go to White Harbour, Manderly can't prove his loyalty, leading to the release of his son, and, as a consequence, the likely catalyst in the Bolton defeat at Winterfell, the defection of the Manderlys, would not be able to occur.

Is it any surprise that the most prepared combatant did the best from the outset?

Everyone else aside from Renly was reacting to the bloody suckerpunch the Lannisters delivered to the Tullys.

Tywin had the south well in hand, but the north remained bitter.

If Tywin were still alive, he's still got Varys and LF to unconsciously work against, and i'd choose them over him any day. He only won because he had the most devious man in the kingdoms working for him.

Meanwhile the Starks and Tullys had him working against them.

Once that changed, he lost his grandson, his claim to the north and his leverage.

Tywin ate well when Baelish offered treats. And Balon offered rank idiocy and incompetence.

Once Baelish closed the hand, Tywin's day got real shitty really fast.

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I think there are a few things to consider here.



1. One answer to the OP's question lies in the numerous threads pertaining to the great northern conspiracy, which, in a nutshell, states that the northern lords will let the Bolton forces and Stannis's forces weaken each other so they can follow Robb's will and use their strenght to declare Jon King in the North and Rickon Lord of Wintefell. This would be in line with your "nationalist" argument.



2. My belief is simple. The last time the King in the North (and by extension, the northern lords)bent the knee, it was to Aegon the Conqueror and his 3 dragons. I don't see why it should be different this time around.


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Is it any surprise that the most prepared combatant did the best from the outset?

Everyone else aside from Renly was reacting to the bloody suckerpunch the Lannisters delivered to the Tullys.

Tywin had the south well in hand, but the north remained bitter.

If Tywin were still alive, he's still got Varys and LF to unconsciously work against, and i'd choose them over him any day. He only won because he had the most devious man in the kingdoms working for him.

Meanwhile the Starks and Tullys had him working against them.

Once that changed, he lost his grandson, his claim to the north and his leverage.

Tywin ate well when Baelish offered treats. And Balon offered rank idiocy and incompetence.

Once Baelish closed the hand, Tywin's day got real shitty really fast.

Do you even have a point wrt the rationality of the RW plan? Even with Sansa gone, Lannister catspaws, dependent on the Iron Throne for crucial hostages, are in charge in the north. Baelish didn't offer treats either, he just consistently did what was in his best interest (in his opinion). The Tyrell marriage was Tyrion's idea and LF only made the QoT aware of Joffrey's proclivities sooner than she would have discerned them anyway, in the ordinary course of affairs.
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Do you even have a point wrt the rationality of the RW plan? Even with Sansa gone, Lannister catspaws, dependent on the Iron Throne for crucial hostages, are in charge in the north. Baelish didn't offer treats either, he just consistently did what was in his best interest (in his opinion). The Tyrell marriage was Tyrion's idea and LF only made the QoT aware of Joffrey's proclivities sooner than she would have discerned them anyway, in the ordinary course of affairs.

Long term, meaning generations. Ask Tommen in 20 years. Or Tommen's grandson. Or great-great-grandson. If they'd be alive.

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Uh, yes? It was an idiotic plan that will get Westermen lynched for a millenium. And very likely cause the eradication of House Lannister should they ever need the mercy of anybody - something houses regularly need in a feudal society.

I think so.

Obviously Cersei determined to distance the Lannister cause from the Freys as soon as Tywin was out of the picture. It's very hard to know what Tywin himself had planned.

The trouble for the Lannisters is that they quite gave certain rewards to the Freys AFTER the wedding, including making a wedding pact and the lordship of Riverrun.

The whole realm is shocked over the event, and I don't think the Lannisters nor the Boltons are going to get away with their parts in it.

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I think so.

Obviously Cersei determined to distance the Lannister cause from the Freys as soon as Tywin was out of the picture. It's very hard to know what Tywin himself had planned.

The trouble for the Lannisters is that they quite gave certain rewards to the Freys AFTER the wedding, including making a wedding pact and the lordship of Riverrun.

The whole realm is shocked over the event, and I don't think the Lannisters nor the Boltons are going to get away with their parts in it.

No one involved will get away with it. We get that from the legend of the rat cook.

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Long term, meaning generations. Ask Tommen in 20 years. Or Tommen's grandson. Or great-great-grandson. If they'd be alive.

In my country one of the ancestors of the Queen took the kingdom by conquest, hacked the actual king into pieces on the battlefield, dispossessed the vast majority of the aristocracy of their lands, and committed a great genocide north of the river Humber. His heirs faced no rebellions from the conquered. Maybe the northmen will develop a revanche culture, or maybe they won't.

In any case, letting Robb march beyond the Twins back into the north perpetuated the war, and left the south open to invasion from forces from beyond Moat Cailin.

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Tywin Lannister was a competent tactician (at the very least), and managed to win a war without ever winning a battle. On the surface it seems like the Red Wedding was a strategic grand slam -wipe out the enemy army, and murder the Northern King and his bannermen swiftly in one night. But long term it seems that the Red Wedding was bound to haunt the Iron Throne.

In my interpretation, Robb Stark was declared King in the North for a lack of better options. The lord of Winterfell was beheaded, the Northmen thus couldn't hold to Joff. The Baratheon brother with the weaker claim looked strongest, and the elder brother's prospects seemed bleak. So the Northmen said "fuck it, let's just declare ourselves a separate kingdom." By this point however, I don't think things were past a point of no return. If Joff had been deposed by Tywin, Tommen had ascended, the Stark girls returned, I suspect Robb Stark could have been brought to consider laying down his arms and ending the rebellion.

Similarly, If Renly had taken King's Landing, returned the Stark girls, sent the Starks Joff's head, Robb may have sworn fealty. Same deal with Stannis. The point I'm making is that after 300 years of union, before the RW I don't see Northern nationalism as having been as entrenched as it is at this point in the books. I simply cannot see the North bending the knee to anyone other than a Stark. *MAYBE to Jon if he took the throne, and MAYBE to Aegon if he took a Stark girl etc etc.

I think at this point the RW has become a catalyst for Northern ultra-nationalism, and has made a Lannister monarchy impossible. The struggle is no longer about avenging Eddard Stark, it's about independence. The North knows no king but the king in the North, whose name is Stark.

Thoughts? Any scenarios by which the Northerners can be brought back into the seven kingdoms without a half-Stark at the helm?

Well, they are currently tentative allies with a man who plans on restoring the Starks and has done nothing wrong to them. It's also important to remember that none of the Starks themselves particularly care about an independent North. They want find the rest of their family (at least those that know some of their family is alive), vengeance and/or justice against their enemies, and restore Winterfell. Should they decide to follow Stannis, Dany, Aegon, or whoever, I doubt the North would oppose them.

I think there are a few things to consider here.

1. One answer to the OP's question lies in the numerous threads pertaining to the great northern conspiracy, which, in a nutshell, states that the northern lords will let the Bolton forces and Stannis's forces weaken each other so they can follow Robb's will and use their strenght to declare Jon King in the North and Rickon Lord of Wintefell. This would be in line with your "nationalist" argument.

2. My belief is simple. The last time the King in the North (and by extension, the northern lords)bent the knee, it was to Aegon the Conqueror and his 3 dragons. I don't see why it should be different this time around.

2. Actually, Eddard did bend knee to Robert. He might have helped install him as king, but he did accept Robert's rule.

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2. Actually, Eddard did bend knee to Robert. He might have helped install him as king, but he did accept Robert's rule.

Ned Stark was not King in the North, he was the Lord of Winterfell. The last King in the North to bend the knee was Torrhen Stark.

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In my country one of the ancestors of the Queen took the kingdom by conquest, hacked the actual king into pieces on the battlefield, dispossessed the vast majority of the aristocracy of their lands, and committed a great genocide north of the river Humber. His heirs faced no rebellions from the conquered. Maybe the northmen will develop a revanche culture, or maybe they won't.

In any case, letting Robb march beyond the Twins back into the north perpetuated the war, and left the south open to invasion from forces from beyond Moat Cailin.

I take it you're English.

I agree with Bright Blue Eyes and I think the OP was thinking long term.

But to your point, Jon, Bran, Sands and Arya have all pretty much accepted defeat. They haven't thought about restoring Winterfell and have accepted their fate. That has actually disappointed me. In Jon's defense, as a sworn brother there's not much he can do.

Fortunately for the Starks, the rest of the North remembers.

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Yes I was talking long-term. The point I was making is that the North won't lose a home game, and if the IT wants to rule the North it will require some level of consent. Butchering the Northern King and the Northern aristocracy at a wedding feast, and then rewarding the perpetrators was a recipe for disaster in my opinion.



Sure, with Tywin alive, Stark loyalists aren't too eager to rebel. But Tywin knows he's not going to live forever, and lo and behold, shortly after Tywin's death, the Northern lords are plotting another rebellion against the Boltons/Freys/Lannisters. And what are the Lannisters going to do this time? Fight the Northmen, in the North, during winter?



IMO Tyrion's grim reaction to the RW in the show was the right one. "The Northerners will never forget this." Beheading the Northern King and parading him around afterwards, are you kidding me? Almost every great Northern family lost someone at the RW. How could you expect the North to hold to a Lannister king in the long-run?


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well yea but if tywin was still alive it would have been a warning for northerners who would want to rebel again. Heck all he had to do is send a message or picture of the KITN with a dire wolf head and play the rains of castamere and most notherners would be like F this, we all know what happened when we went south to mess with the throne.


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