Dorne, Aegon and the Faith Militant (WOW Spoilers)

[Northernmonkey]

For me, one of the most interesting chapters in ADWD is "the watcher", when we here about Doran's plans. There's a lot of very interesting things said.

We find out from Doran that "Dorne still has friends at court. Friends who tell us things

we were not meant to know." Does anyone have any theories to who these people are?

Doran also says "The time is not yet come for Dorne to openly defy the Iron Throne" and then after he's told Nym and Tyene that he's sending them to Kings Landing, he says "If certain things should come to pass, I will

send word to each of you. Things can change quickly in the game of thrones."

What does he mean when he says "If certain things come to pass"? I assume that these "certain things" are him allying with Aegon. We know from the WOW spoiler chapter that he's sent Arianne to meet with Jon Connington. I think Doran's pretty much decided about allying with Aegon, because just by meeting with Connington he's rebelling against the throne. If Cersei or Mace Tyrell found out about it, it would mean that Lady Nym could be imprisoned or even executed.

Then we come to the high septon. Doran sends Tyene to get close to him, but what if he's actually sent her to convince him to join Aegon's side? Cersei and Margaery are mired in scandal at the moment, and we know that Aegon has been raised in the faith of the seven. Would it be that hard to convince the faith militant to fight for Aegon?

If this is did happen, then it would mean that it would be much easier for Aegon and Dorne to take Kings Landing. With the Faith Militant, plus Dorne's secret friends in KL, plus whatever soldiers Nym takes with her, it might be possible for them to take KL from the inside, ready for Aegon when he arrives.

[AegonTargaryen]

I don't think that Doran is in league with Aegon yet. Doran is very sceptical of Aegon, and will be inclined to believe him to be a pretended. Until, that is, he is provided with some authentication that the boy calling himself Aegon Targaryen is indeed his nephew. So I don't think Doran is actively plotting for Aegon at the moment. His friend at court could be Varys though.

[Jessica Rogers]

I don't think anyone could imprison a sand snake and live to tell about, except Doran.

I think KL small council is about to get a rude awakening, Nym doesn't strike me as a women to be trifled with.

I think Doran is playing the long game like Varys and LF. It's viewed upon as inaction but when Dorne strikes its going to bloody and exact.

His armies are at full strength because he has yet to get involved in any of the battles and from Arianne's chapters they are all set to strike at a moments notice.

They were after all going to kill his son.

[Northernmonkey]

I don't think that Doran is in league with Aegon yet. Doran is very sceptical of Aegon, and will be inclined to believe him to be a pretended. Until, that is, he is provided with some authentication that the boy calling himself Aegon Targaryen is indeed his nephew. So I don't think Doran is actively plotting for Aegon at the moment. His friend at court could be Varys though.

But Varys wasn't in court at the time, so he shouldn't know about Cersei's plan to kill Trystane. I know he's still got his little birds, but Doran makes it sound like he's got friends literally in Kings Landing. Also, nobody would describe Varys as a friend.

[Jessica Rogers]

Yeah but Verys could be feeding them information because Aegon is going to need Dorne.

[Jon of the Dead]

The "certain things" bit could be Quentyn's deal with Dany, I think.

And the spies in court, well, yeah, could be Varys. And I'll say Taena too, just for kicks.

Did Cersei tell anyone about the plan to ambush and kill Trystane? I don't remember that she told anyone, but Doran found out about that.

[SanderOfTheFaith]

Dorne is allied with the Reach. The pretence of Dorne and the Reach hating eachother is a mascarade. Remember that Oberyn and Willas had a lot of contact. Those are his "friends at court"

[Northernmonkey]

Did Cersei tell anyone about the plan to ambush and kill Trystane? I don't remember that she told anyone, but Doran found out about that.

We don't hear anything about it from Cersei. I'm not even sure if Doran was telling the truth. It seems like an incredibly stupid plan, even for Cersei.

[Jessica Rogers]

We don't hear anything about it from Cersei. I'm not even sure if Doran was telling the truth. It seems like an incredibly stupid plan, even for Cersei.

Not really, she's power hungry sociopath and she's devolving rapidly.

I mean look at what she did to marg? What the hell was she going to do without the backing of Highgarden?

Also, when Tyrion arranged the marrage for Myrocella to Tyrstane Ceresi was against and did everything she could to get Myrocella home and the only way to get her out of the Marriage arrangement would've been to either severe ties with Dorne or Kill the boy.

[Fightbringer]

I think the favourite for dorans 'friend at court' is Taena Merryweather, she'd be in on a lot of cersei's plans, and notice her attempts at excuse making when cersei asks her to bring her son to court. It could also be Varys when you think about it, both of them seem to working for a targ restoration, at least on the face of it.

And i think the certain things that may come to pass doesnt refer to an alliance with aegon, because they already would know presumably if they formed an alliance, it would be all over the seven kingdoms, unless it was done in secret. Its more likely that when the alliance i forged he will 'send word' to take certain actions, as to what those actions, your guess is as good as mine

[Jon of the Dead]

Not really, she's power hungry sociopath and she's devolving rapidly.

I mean look at what she did to marg? What the hell was she going to do without the backing of Highgarden?

Also, when Tyrion arranged the marrage for Myrocella to Tyrstane Ceresi was against and did everything she could to get Myrocella home and the only way to get her out of the Marriage arrangement would've been to either severe ties with Dorne or Kill the boy.

This is true, the plan definetely sounds like Cersei, but as northernmonkey says, Cersei never tells anyone and she doesn't even think about it. All she thinks is that Ser Balon is going to Dorne with another, secret mission.

I think Cersei's real plan is to smuggle Myrcella out of Dorne. I think that's what Balon Swann was up to, and that's why he was so nervous in that chapter. Cersei wants her children close now that she's all paranoid.

I think what Doran said about the plan to kill Trystane was just a lie to get the Sand Snakes on his side

[I S**t Gold]

Snip.

If we look at the potential possibilities of allies in King's Landing there aren't that many options really, and some of them I feel like you can rule out logically speaking. Anyway here's my thoughts on the likely candidates.

1. CERSEI'S COURT - I don't find Pycelle likely, although he could certainly be forgiven for fraternising with the enemy by dint of how much he has suffered for his Lannister association. He'd also be useful as a spy, he's been privy to a lot of the goings on behind the scenes.

Ms Merryweather seemed to get out of her problems with the High Septon awfully easily considering how implicated she was in the whole affair. That implies to me she may have been conspiring with the Tyrell's though.

Qyburn is an enigma of sorts, but I don't find him likely as his status in King's Landing is almost entirely bound up in Cersei favouring him. If Cersei goes, Qyburn has the most to lose.

2. THE HIGH SEPTON - If Doran was colluding with the High Septon, it seems pretty pointless to send Tyene to infiltrate them. That implies to me that the HS is a danger to Doran's plans rather than an ally. Tyene is not going to build up the level of trust with the HS necessary quickly enough to influence his plans to the extent that he decides to side with Aegon, but whatever the HS does decide, Tyene should have a birds eye view.

3. THE TYRELLS - This possibility should be impossible, but I still like it a little bit more than I should. The Tyrells and Martells are at odds over the crippling of Willas, but again this incident seemed to be an accident and Willas and Oberyn became pen pals afterwards.

If you believe the theory that Loras wasn't melted and the Tyrells are covering that up, if you take into account the Joffrey poisoning, it's clear that the Tyrells are not strangers to subterfuge.

There's another thing that bugs me about this particular feud. If you believe Oberyn poisoned Tywin before Tyrion got to him that is (and I do). That night Varys tells us that Oberyn, Mace and Tywin are all drinking together. Tywin ends up on the bog and Mace doesn't. This on it's own doesn't mean they're secretly friends of course, but it does mean that Oberyn passed up a great opportunity to take out the head of a family who are considered enemies.

At the moment the Tyrells and Martells, whether independently or not, do seem to have mutual goals and similar ways of doing things. The Joffrey poisoning was executed in a manner Oberyn would have been proud of. In addition Doran refers to his 'friends' at court, which is a plural. There's only one other person I think could be conspiring with Doran, so the Tyrell angle might make some sense from that perspective. In any case there's a lot of synergies between the way the Tyrell and Martell plots are developing.

4. VARYS - Varys is my pick, although there's not a lot of evidence, and I know, I looked for it. By process of elimination he seems the most likely of the candidates I've listed, and again as a subscriber to the Tywin-being-poisoned theory it was supremely convenient for Dorne that Tyrion turned up at the perfect moment to settle things with his Dad, as presumably Pycelle has the expertise in poisons to diagnose the cause of death if they found him on the privy.

I know Varys begs Tyrion not to do anything, he claims Tyrion is ruining him, that he's doomed him. However saying that, the consequences of all this don't seem to affect Varys' master-plan very much.

With Varys (presumably) being an Aegon loyalist, his motivation for conspiring with Doran is pretty much obvious.

As a final note, I should say that I think the Arianne marriage proposal angle is possibly a matter of Doran hedging his bets. The two biggest threats to Dorne are arguably Dany and the GC, and Doran has sent two of his siblings out to propose. This means that Aegon and Dany are both likely to think of Dorne as friends and less likely to invade and try to destroy them. I'm not sure Doran cares who sits on the Iron Throne as long as it's good for Dorne, and I suspect he might prefer a Dornish king to Aegon in any case.

[Hippocras]

Here is an alternative theory:

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/104634-spoilers-littlefinger-dorne-and-the-sparrows/

Basically, I think Littlefinger is the better bet as Dorne's informant. He has a long-term familial alliance with the Corbrays - Targ loyalists who fought their own liege lord Jon Arryn at the start of Robert's rebellion, and his game is a better fit with the character and progress of Dorne's. ie - playing sides against each other, appearing non-threatening while sending out vipers, keeping the Vale and Dorne out of the war.

If Doran was working in any way with Varys, do you not find it strange that Varys would keep Aegon secret from him? Doran is hardly a gossip so the secret would have been safe. Doran has been plotting revenge for the deaths of Aegon, his mother and sister from the moment it happened, so why on earth would Varys not tell him the boy was alive. Even a fake Aegon absolutely needs Dorne to be accepted as legitimate. Leaving them out of his upbringing completely puts his legitimacy at risk and Varys would not do that by choice.

Speculation, but I think Varys's actions in the later years of king Aerys's reign mean Doran doesn't trust him in the least and would never work with him. As for Varys, he is working for the Blackfyre branch, the very ones who threatened Dorne first with invasion via the Stepstones in the War of the Ninepenny Kings.

Varys and Doran working together seems quite implausible.

[Hippocras]

Taena Merryweather is clearly an informant, but she is not the principle one. She is one of a network of agents. She arrived too late in the game to be the principal one. Note that she arrived just as Littlefinger was leaving.

And the way that Taena and Qyburn tag-teamed to hint to Cersei about Tyrell involvement in Joffrey's murder says to me that they are working together. Qyburn never actually produced any coin, and Taena never showed Oleana's supposed trunk of Gardener coins. Cersei just wants to believe.

[Hippocras]

We find out from Doran that "Dorne still has friends at court. Friends who tell us things

we were not meant to know." Does anyone have any theories to who these people are?

Doran also says "The time is not yet come for Dorne to openly defy the Iron Throne" and then after he's told Nym and Tyene that he's sending them to Kings Landing, he says "If certain things should come to pass, I will

send word to each of you. Things can change quickly in the game of thrones."

What does he mean when he says "If certain things come to pass"? I assume that these "certain things" are him allying with Aegon. We know from the WOW spoiler chapter that he's sent Arianne to meet with Jon Connington. I think Doran's pretty much decided about allying with Aegon, because just by meeting with Connington he's rebelling against the throne. If Cersei or Mace Tyrell found out about it, it would mean that Lady Nym could be imprisoned or even executed.

Then we come to the high septon. Doran sends Tyene to get close to him, but what if he's actually sent her to convince him to join Aegon's side? Cersei and Margaery are mired in scandal at the moment, and we know that Aegon has been raised in the faith of the seven. Would it be that hard to convince the faith militant to fight for Aegon?

If this is did happen, then it would mean that it would be much easier for Aegon and Dorne to take Kings Landing. With the Faith Militant, plus Dorne's secret friends in KL, plus whatever soldiers Nym takes with her, it might be possible for them to take KL from the inside, ready for Aegon when he arrives.

1. I think Doran's informant is Littlefinger and his network of agents. I think clues on who is part of that network in KL have been dropped in extremely subtle ways here and there - including a dinner in King's Landing where Balon Swann made a joke about the 5 kings. My guess is that dinner was a gathering of many of those agents. Littlefinger tells us directly that he placed the Kettleblacks in KL in key posts. We know they are his spies. However we know Littlefinger ALSO recommended Balon Swann for the Kingsguard, and Mandon Moore was probably Littlefinger's suggestion also. Adding to that list some other suspects: Taena Merryweather and Qyburn. Qyburn was a plant in the Brave Companions first, feeding Littlefinger info on troop movements and events in the Riverlands. Both Taena and Qyburn came after the Battle of the Blackwater to King's Landing just as Littlefinger was preparing to leave - he knew he was going to be gone a while and needed new well placed agents. Especially with Mandon Moore dead.

2. "If certain things come to pass" could mean anything really. But I am pretty sure that Doran knows Aegon is probably a fake. Arianne's mission is too find evidence for that. He told her directly that he had suspicions. I don't think he will make an alliance with Aegon, personally, but if he does it is more likely a tactic for stalling and information than real acceptance of Aegon. I would not interpret a simple meeting as outright defiance as you have - we saw several meetings of lords deciding between Renly and Stannis that were not seen that way. King's Landing would simply demand information from Nym about the meeting and about Aegon, which she would provide.

3. I think, personally, that the High Sparrow is already working with Dorne. The various Sand Snake missions were about giving them something to do under supervision, not demonstrations of Doran's suddden full trust in them. Obara's Darkstar mission is quite likely a goose chase, Tyene is being placed with the High Sparrow so she can get close to, and poison Tommen since he is surrounded always by nuns and his food is always tested. There is no direct evidence that Doran is working with the Sparrows, but the Shame Walk they made Cersei do screamed "sweet Dornish revenge" to me, and there is a strong parallel between the faith pestering Cersei for a confession and Oberyn pestering Gregor for a confession during Tyrion's trial by combat.

4. It will certainly make it easier for whoever the Sparrows are working with to take power - the Faith Millitant has already actually captured King's Landing. However I do not think that they are working for Aegon. Aegon is a black dragon rusted over - a Blackfyre made to seem to be Elia's son. Dorne HATES the Blackfyres - the whole conflict with the Blackfyre branch started when the Targaryen Princess married a Martell to seal the alliance and Dorne's entry into the Seven Kingdoms. Dorne was in constant conflict with Blackfyre pretenders from that moment forward. It has been hinted the Blackfyres may somehow have been responsible for the tragedy at Summerhall, where majority of the descendants of Daeron II and Myriah Martell died. It would not at all surprise me if Dorne's obsession with revenge is much older and deeper than Elia and actually dates back to the very beginning and the Blackfyres.