Balon Greyjoy, the worst strategist ever?

[Frey Pie]

I totally agree with you.

Moreover do not forget few things:

• the Manderlys are enormously rich, so you should not crowd-out any mercenary force
• the North remembers: the IB are taugth, but the Nmen are no joke. There would have been rebellions against the invaders.
• The IB rose in rebellion at the begininnig of Robert's reign, so their soldiers must be way less than previous estimation. Despite Robert been of "kind heart" (according to Cersei) they should have suffered heavy losses (1/3 of warriors plus the totality of their fleet??).
• I feel that in the days of Harren the Black the population of the IB was larger because they had the harvest of the Riverlands to support them.

Was Theon the only one fostered "abroad"? I get the feeling that it could have happened to many other noble boys (and girls of course) and so the leaders and the "officials" of the Iron fleet would have been "weak".

Well we know I believe Baelor Blacktyde was taken to the mainland. It's possible others were also.

I get the feeling that the IB losses against Robert were very significant. His fleet and primary port were massacred. All major islands were taken. Pyke was brought down. All this before Balon would kneel. A third is probably being kind. That said I would say that Balon has around 20000 men to call upon, but only the IF and certain crews e.g Ashas would have any discipline which is key in war and battle

[LordOldNick]

Well, maybe even 20000 is exagerated. We know that Victarion left with 90 ships to Volantis, roughtly half of the IF. So we can suppose the IF being made of 250 ships. I feel that 80 crew members per ship on avearage is a bit too much, so I cut it to 50 men per ship.So, it would make 12.500 men. Considering also 1 over 5 men stayed at home (and I feel that it is exagerated) this would make a total number of IB warrios= 15.000.

[Shane the Llama]

Uh, are people reading the same book? :D Moat Cailin was the key to the north, thus, he sent Victarion and a large force there. Knowing Victarion is a beast of a fighter, and the main force of the North is with Robb, it is brilliant tactics. Just because it goes against the Starks doesn't make it stupid. For one, they could wrap 'tentacles' around the North and squeeze, while Robb lost men in the south. Also, Balon sent letters out to the throne and such, for alliances. If the Lannisters backed Balon; and Tywin would've married Cersei to Theon / Balon or Victarion, then yes... it was a pretty solid plan.

Balon dying, really, was the only reason the plan failed. Because the Kingsmoot made Victarion and a lot of strong warriors head back to Pyke.

Did you forget that Tywin explicitly rejected an alliance with Balon in the books? Balon's ultimate goal was independence, which makes his decision to attack his only possible ally incredibly stupid.

[The Raging Bull]

The thing that nags me is that he thought the north was enough. His plan was what? to keep reaving up and down the stony shore forever and think Tywin would just let him? If he really wanted to do things the old way he needs to be able to attack the whole of westeros. The plunder is poor in the north and the women and men few and spread out. He needed to be bold like Euron, attack the north and the safe like the real 'old way'.

[Chaircat Meow]

I don't get this whole Robb had to return because there wasn't the strength in the North to resist without the main army. Robbs capital has been taken and his heir killed. This is why he has to return, not because there isn't sufficient numbers.

But he thought Rodrick was on his way to take it back (as he says) ... Going back north won't bring Bran and Rickon back to life (if they'd really been slain). If Rodrick needed more men to wangle WF out of 30 men or so (a garrison that is too small for it) Robb only had to write to Manderly and order him to send reinforcements. Moreover, why on earth would Robb take the grave risk of assaulting the Moat from the south if a northern army could unblock it from the unfortified side?

Makes no sense if there were the forces left in the north to deal with Vic. All makes sense if there weren't.

How many ironborn were in the North?! 10k at best. In reality these men should be beaten by a Northern army in battle due to a lack of knowledge of the terrain and a lack of cavalry of any kind. Can Rodrick raise 10k?! Well he's got over 2500 if Ramsay joins him and Theon will be either dead or a hostage. The Umbers have another 1000 or so, the Karstarks 300, Mormonts a few hundred, Mountain Clans at least 3000, Manderlys at least another 2-3000. And there's a whole load of other men that will fight against tyrants who rape their wives and defile their gods. So yes 10k is very doable. No they won't be as good one on one as Robbs men or Vics but they will have the advantage I named above. On any case they can defeat Asha and Dagmer easily and attempt to bottle Vic up. The possible hammer and anvil. Balon could not win. His strategy went against his goal, and was unattainable hence he was a fool

Why are you relying on pulling details out of the air, wrt ironborn numbers and capability, when you have Robb's own judgment plain before you? Why are trying to make both Balon and Robb look stupid by insisting there are a load of other men who will fight against 'tyranny,' when there is no evidence of this. Can't you just stay grounded in the text.

[Shane the Llama]

But he thought Rodrick was on his way to take it back (as he says) ... Going back north won't bring Bran and Rickon back to life (if they'd really been slain). If Rodrick needed more men to wangle WF out of 30 men or so (a garrison that is too small for it) Robb only had to write to Manderly and order him to send reinforcements. Moreover, why on earth would Robb take the grave risk of assaulting the Moat from the south if a northern army could unblock it from the unfortified side?

Makes no sense if there were the forces left in the north to deal with Vic. All makes sense if there weren't.

Why are you relying on pulling details out of the air, wrt ironborn numbers and capability, when you have Robb's own judgment plain before you? Why are trying to make both Balon and Robb look stupid by insisting there are a load of other men who will fight against 'tyranny,' when there is no evidence of this. Can't you just stay grounded in the text.

Rodrik took most of Winterfell's garrison because it was the quickest way to gather a force. He had to move quickly to deal with Dagmer's raiders at Torrhen's Square, and waiting for reinforcements from Manderly would have taken a long time. His decision was obviously foolish, but the idea of waiting for Manderly is not practical.

Robb had to return North to expedite the removal of the Ironborn. There were enough men in the North to expel the Ironborn, but Robb needed to deal with them before he could continue campaigning effectively. A king, like any other lord, must protect his people. Robb's following would dissipate if he continued to raid the West while the Ironborn rampaged across his own kingdom. In addition, returning with the army (and most of the more capable leaders) would make the reclamation of the North far less bloody for his side.

[Arthur Dayne's Honor]

What consequences? The Ironborn are doing absolutely fine.

not because of anything the IB have done. They are doing well because until now there have been other more important things to take care of. The remainder of Robb's forces, Stannis, the faith militant, the power struggle in KL.

[Chaircat Meow]

Rodrik took most of Winterfell's garrison because it was the quickest way to gather a force. He had to move quickly to deal with Dagmer's raiders at Torrhen's Square, and waiting for reinforcements from Manderly would have taken a long time. His decision was obviously foolish, but the idea of waiting for Manderly is not practical.

What does that have to do with what I said. I said if Rodrick needed help dislodging Theon, and maintaining a siege he could have been sent reinforcements from White Harbour. So there was no need for Robb to go himself. In any case though, levies were summoned from WH to help fight Dagmar. It was plenty practical too, as the point of fortifications is to buy time for a relief force to arrive. You don't respond to attacks on a castle like a yo yo.

Robb had to return North to expedite the removal of the Ironborn. There were enough men in the North to expel the Ironborn, but Robb needed to deal with them before he could continue campaigning effectively. A king, like any other lord, must protect his people. Robb's following would dissipate if he continued to raid the West while the Ironborn rampaged across his own kingdom. In addition, returning with the army (and most of the more capable leaders) would make the reclamation of the North far less bloody for his side.

Look, if it was easy to remove the ironborn from the Moat Robb would have sent the forces still in the north to do it. It really is that simple. Any other view makes Robb look a fool, as he'd have planned to assault, needlessly, a hitherto impregnable fortification, when he had a good army on the other side!

The ironborn were only known to be at the Moat, Deepwood, WF and raiding the Stony Shore (no remedy for the last, as no ships). No one denies Rodrick could have retaken WF if not for Ramsay, so that leaves the Moat. Rodrick is in a much better position to take it back, as he's on the right side of it, and it needs a very daring military operation to get north of it, from the south. So, the fact Robb decided to undertake such an operation means the northern forces must have been inadequate to deal with the ironborn.

[Usrnmhsnomning]

So, the fact Robb decided to undertake such an operation means the northern forces must have been inadequate to deal with the ironborn.

The Ironborn numbered what, 50? With no defenses north of Moat Cailin? You're arguing that 50 men were able to defend Moat Cailin from thousands of men attacking from the North and saying that Robbs intention to reclaim Moat Cailin proves it?

[Jasta11]

Tactically, his moves were sound enough, if basic. Take Moat Caitilin, and the King in the North is cutoff from his land. Taking forts strengthren Ironborn grip over the region.

Strategically, well, it depends on what his aims are.

1. If his aim is to fuck over the Starks right here, right now, then yes his plan is somewhat of a success. Taking the Moat ensures Robb is taken between the hammer and the anvil, and is a great detriment to his cause. Taking Winterfell and killing Bran and Rickon is far more, but it wasn't in the original plan and so is discarded from the discussion.

2. If, however, the aim is to ressurect the Old Way, as he tells Theon (to whom he has no reason to lie), then he's going at it via the absolute worst strategy possible. For the Old Way to ever work, the continent needs to be fractured, else any serious attempt to resume raiding and pillaging in earnest will result in curb-stomps like during his first rebellion. Robb is his ticket to continent-wide fracturation, as he's keeping the Iron Throne from having control of the Riverlands and the North. Aiding the IT in crushing the rebellion only ensures the consolidation of its power, at the expense of Balon's own. So he's already actively working against his long-term goal here. But let's assume he wants to earn Lannister trust (for some reason) and fuck over the Starks at the same time. Seems like he's taking the best way for that, right? So he's not as dumb as we say, right? Yes... Until he crowns himself. He just destroyed any sympathy anyone on the IT could ever have for his help into defeating the rebels. This, literally, a move that makes absolutely no sense whatsoever, even more than Robb's coronation. What Mr. ''Me-Smash'' Grejoy is doing here is ensuring the hostility of anyone who evers sits on the IT, as well as making an enemy of those who are against the IT at the same time. There is no possible way he could ever keep that crown now without the help of the North, bar events that are completely out of his control. The only reason he wasn't attacked is because the Lannisters consider it a waste of time; indeed, Tywin's strategy is basically to let them rot in the North and kick the snot out of them as Spring comes after they spend their forces holding strategically insignificant terrain. for no other reason than to stroke Balon's pride.

Since option 1 is a stupid long-term strategic goal, and option 2 is a total failure for Balon, we have to assume that, indeed, he's hardly the sharpest thing in the toolbox. And that's saying something considering the state of Westerosi leadership.

[Shane the Llama]

What does that have to do with what I said. I said if Rodrick needed help dislodging Theon, and maintaining a siege he could have been sent reinforcements from White Harbour. So there was no need for Robb to go himself. In any case though, levies were summoned from WH to help fight Dagmar. It was plenty practical too, as the point of fortifications is to buy time for a relief force to arrive. You don't respond to attacks on a castle like a yo yo.

Look, if it was easy to remove the ironborn from the Moat Robb would have sent the forces still in the north to do it. It really is that simple. Any other view makes Robb look a fool, as he'd have planned to assault, needlessly, a hitherto impregnable fortification, when he had a good army on the other side!

The ironborn were only known to be at the Moat, Deepwood, WF and raiding the Stony Shore (no remedy for the last, as no ships). No one denies Rodrick could have retaken WF if not for Ramsay, so that leaves the Moat. Rodrick is in a much better position to take it back, as he's on the right side of it, and it needs a very daring military operation to get north of it, from the south. So, the fact Robb decided to undertake such an operation means the northern forces must have been inadequate to deal with the ironborn.

I very clearly outlined the reasons for Robb to march North regardless of the strength of the forces already present.

1. It was Robb's duty to protect his people, so he could not continue to raid in the South while his lords (who provide almost all of his power) have their lands pillaged.

2. Robb's army contained most of the North's best soldiers and commanders, whose experience would speed up the removal of the Ironborn, and make it less costly for the Northerners.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

2. If, however, the aim is to ressurect the Old Way, as he tells Theon (to whom he has no reason to lie),

Of course he has reason to lie to Theon, he(at least in Balons eyes) is pretty much a soft Stark lapdog. This is a son who has spent more time in the court of the Starks than has been an Ironborn. Not only is Theon sent on the least important mission behind Asha and Victarion but on this 'command' he's put with Dagmar and Aeron who are both ahead of him.

If we look at the Kingsmoot where Asha outlines the plans were not just to raid the North but take land on the West coast and build a better future for the Ironborn not based on reaving. In the books it is quite clear that it Balon was grooming his daughter to succeed him so it is reasonable to suggest that this was Balons thinking as well.

What I love about these forums is that almost every character no matter how minor is viewed and thought of in a complex way except when it comes to Balon and the Ironborn when it's all 'hur hur dumb viking pirates' . :dunno:

[Shane the Llama]

Of course he has reason to lie to Theon, he(at least in Balons eyes) is pretty much a soft Stark lapdog. This is a son who has spent more time in the court of the Starks than has been an Ironborn. Not only is Theon sent on the least important mission behind Asha and Victarion but on this 'command' he's put with Dagmar and Aeron who are both ahead of him.

If we look at the Kingsmoot where Asha outlines the plans were not just to raid the North but take land on the West coast and build a better future for the Ironborn not based on reaving. In the books it is quite clear that it Balon was grooming his daughter to succeed him so it is reasonable to suggest that this was Balons thinking as well.

What I love about these forums is that almost every character no matter how minor is viewed and thought of in a complex way except when it comes to Balon and the Ironborn when it's all 'hur hur dumb viking pirates' . :dunno:

So Balon came up with an intentionally stupid plan for the sole purpose of lying to Theon about it? How would that benefit him in any way?

[Jasta11]

Of course he has reason to lie to Theon, he(at least in Balons eyes) is pretty much a soft Stark lapdog. This is a son who has spent more time in the court of the Starks than has been an Ironborn. Not only is Theon sent on the least important mission behind Asha and Victarion but on this 'command' he's put with Dagmar and Aeron who are both ahead of him.

If we look at the Kingsmoot where Asha outlines the plans were not just to raid the North but take land on the West coast and build a better future for the Ironborn not based on reaving. In the books it is quite clear that it Balon was grooming his daughter to succeed him so it is reasonable to suggest that this was Balons thinking as well.

What I love about these forums is that almost every character no matter how minor is viewed and thought of in a complex way except when it comes to Balon and the Ironborn when it's all 'hur hur dumb viking pirates' . :dunno:

That's one big extrapolation of yours. He trusts Theon enough to assign a command to him, however how minor, and it's not like he benefits from misdirecting him in any sort of way.

Furthermore, the Ironborn were ''building a future''... out of one of the most barren, dirt-poor, worthless land in Westeros? While being beset by enemies? In extremely hostile territory, a few years before winter? Their campaign, in Asha's own words, brought them little else than turnips and the hatred of a people they're not numerous enough to control and way too warlike to accomodate in any sort of way. They weren't ''building'' anything at all. You also assume that Asha's ideas of reform come from Balon, which has 0 textual evidence; indeed, at the Kingsmoot Victarion is the one who wants to continue with his brother's plan; Asha makes it clear her ideas are a departure from her dad's, and is mocked as such. Your line of thinking is not reasonable at all and has very little textual evidence.

You also fail to address the whole rest of my post. Alright, let's assume he did lie to Theon for whatever reason; what was his plan then? How does antagonizing the Starks, then crowning himself to antagonize the rest of Westeros a good idea in any way? What strategy is served by this?

As for the Ironborn being stupid vikings, well I'm sorry but that's the characterization they were given. Their king utterly fails at strategy. His son is a smug, arrogant prick. Their greatest commander is dumber than a sack of bricks. Their only ambition is to burn, rape and pillage everything in sight, in contrast to real-life vikings/Norse which were remarkably civilized people. The only smart Ironborn we see are the Reader (who's widely mocked), Asha (who's the only likeable one, and she still isin't no genius) and Euron ('nuff said). Said Euron also plays the lot of them like a harp. One minute they hated him, then he makes some vague speech about finding dragons and conquering Westeros and it seems any sort of critical thinking and intelligence evaporates; regardless of how silly it seems, Euron promises more loot, so we vote Euron. How is that not a show of how dumb the whole lot is?

[Sullen]

That's one big extrapolation of yours. He trusts Theon enough to assign a command to him, however how minor, and it's not like he benefits from misdirecting him in any sort of way.

He gives Theon a chance to prove himself without giving him much power.

Should Theon prove false, Dagmer and Aeron are there to take his place.

[TheNorth's1stKnight]

balon is an idiot it was stupid to attack the north. taking fishing villages, moat cailin and deepwood motte is nothing compared to taking lannisport and casterly rock.

[Sullen]

balon is an idiot it was stupid to attack the north. taking fishing villages, moat cailin and deepwood motte is nothing compared to taking lannisport and casterly rock.

Safer to take fishing villages and small castles from undefended lords in open rebellion to the Throne and led by a green boy than attack one of the strongest fortresses on the continent (A castle and city that belong to one of the most dangerous men in the lands, it needs to be said) while your men have zero siege experience and that no candidate sitting the Iron Throne would ever let you hold, ever.

Balon's stupidity lies in declaring independence, and thus doom all prospects of alliance, not in his choice to attack the North.

[Ramsay Gimp]

The Ironborn numbered what, 50? With no defenses north of Moat Cailin? You're arguing that 50 men were able to defend Moat Cailin from thousands of men attacking from the North and saying that Robbs intention to reclaim Moat Cailin proves it?

Huh?? Before Balon's death there were at least 5,000 Ironborn at Moat Cailin. Probably more. The entire Iron Fleet was parked there

[Mountain Tribesman]

Compare that with the risk had he sided with Robb. If I remember correctly, the Lannisters and Tyrell fleets weren't really involved in the war against Robb, leaving them free to attack the Iron Islands. It's a massive risk and what for - the independence that they pretty much have anyway (I don't think the crown interfered with the Iron Islands very much).

I strongly disagree. There wasn't much of a Lannister fleet at all... my understanding is that it had been destroyed during the Greyjoy Rebellion a decade prior. As for the Tyrell fleet, if you'll recall it was sorely needed over in the Narrow Sea, in order to take Dragonstone and Storm's End from Stannis. That's why there was no Tyrell fleet to protect the Shield Islands later on.

Simply put, Balon was an idiot of monumental proportions. This is primarily proven by the Greyjoy Rebellion itself, when the gigantic moron decided to declare independence from a fully unified Seven Kingdoms and to attack parts of it (Westerlands, Riverlands). He got his ass handed to him and was lucky that Robert was foolish enough to accept his kneeling without imposing some REAL consequences for his actions. Robert should've left a garrison to watch the Islands and banned Ironborn construction of warships, with the promise that if they so much as raided Westeros again the Islands would be wiped off the map.

Balon's stupidity lies in declaring independence, and thus doom all prospects of alliance, not in his choice to attack the North.

Nope, declaring independence might have worked... but ONLY if he joined sides with Robb! His alliance was right there. Two breakaway kingdoms fighting side by side would've greatly increased the likelihood of both surviving their declarations of independence. Balon instead decided to stab his only friend on the continent in the back, attacking a huge region which he could NOT hold in the long term, even with Moat Cailin in his hands. Balon SHOULD have hit the Westerlands with all he had alongside Robb, as the two of them would have taken Lannisport/Casterly Rock, fatally weakening Tywin and, by that token, the Iron Throne itself.

In fact, Balon and Robb should've taken it even further... encouraging Dorne, the Reach and the Vale to become independent as well! A complete decentralization of Westeros, with each seceding region entering an alliance with the others to prevent the IT from conquering any of them. They would've been unstoppable together.

[Petyr Patter]

Even before Stannis attacked King's Landing, Balon had sent a message to Cersei/Tyrion requesting to draw borders and perhaps for an alliance. Let's look at that again, Balon was looking for an ally. Robb offered him an alliance, Balon refused and turned around and asked the Lannisters for an alliance. Tyrion, and later his father, ignored the request for pretty much the same reason. Balon wasn't offering much (the Iron Island navy was in no position to reinforce King's Landing in time), and the price was half the kingdom.

Balon's plan tactically was certainly sound. The North was lightly held, and a complete surprise attack could capture Moat Caitlin and seperate the King and his kingdom. If Balon was only concerned with risk/reward ratio, then this was a fine plan. It worked even better than planned thanks to Theon's insane/brilliant plan to take Winterfell and Bolton treachery.

Yet, taking is not holding. Whether Stannis, Renly, or Lannister, none of them wanted an independent Iron Islands, and weren't going to give them the North. Mace Tyrell would have been willing, because he's a fool and what not, but Balon never asked Highgarden for an alliance. Robb did, and he smelled weakness and attacked. I think Tywin had a similar reaction in a Storm of Swords.