The Ides of Marsh

[yolkboy]

Well, I guess we know who Jon's No1 fan in the Nightwatch might be...

Ha. yes, I'm slow today. I was thinking specifically of people that might have been stabbing him or in the vicinity, but there's obviously a certain Jon hater on a ranging mission right now.

[Light a wight tonight]

This is really interesting. The first point, not eating with Jon, and "guest right" popped into my head. If Marsh accepts Jon's hospitality he can't kill him, right?

[yolkboy]

Ad the title of the thread - do you think that GRRM knows about the wordplay? Or that he even chose Bowen's surname for this very reason? :-)

Who knows..., but perhaps Marsh indicates he is a crannog bastard?

[Ygrain]

Ha. yes, I'm slow today. I was thinking specifically of people that might have been stabbing him or in the vicinity, but there's obviously a certain Jon hater on a ranging mission right now.

- In other words, unaccounted for. Might as well turn out that he was hanging around elsewhere.

Who knows..., but perhaps Marsh indicates he is a crannog bastard?

:D That would be an offence to HR!

This is really interesting. The first point, not eating with Jon, and "guest right" popped into my head. If Marsh accepts Jon's hospitality he can't kill him, right?

The same here. Funny how someone about to break his vows dwells on formalities.

[yolkboy]

- In other words, unaccounted for. Might as well turn out that he was hanging around elsewhere.

Smart thinking, I'd never considered that. He guaranteed he'd return from that mission IIRC.

[The guy from the Vale]

This brings up a good point. Is there any protocol for a Lord Commander losing his position without dying and then continuing in the NW?

There is one precedent I can think of, but the circumstances have never been brought up. Brynden Rivers was LC after all, and he is still alive. But I can't think of any other case...

ETA: precedent for being alive after not being the LC any more; he doesn't seem to be a NW member any more even though he seems to keep an eye on them still.

[Ghost's Shadow]

- In other words, unaccounted for. Might as well turn out that he was hanging around elsewhere.

Who was going to let him through the gates, though, and which gate?

There is one precedent I can think of, but the circumstances have never been brought up. Brynden Rivers was LC after all, and he is still alive. But I can't think of any other case...

Lol, perhaps 2 of 2 Targ bastard-raised made it out alive. :lol:

[Lady Arya's Song]

In total agreement with Fire Eater's take on that meeting. I have looked at that meeting in detail a few times.

I also noticed that Yarwick did eat breakfast at Jon's invitation.( if guest right applies).

However as the conversation continued. We see Yarwick stabbing a sausage. Notice that Martin always writes that no one knows what is in 3-fingured Hobb's sausages. No pork?

Curious moments regarding pork. The Raven steals Jon's bacon so that Jon does not eat pork.

Jon also keeps ghost locked away so that Ghost will not attack Borroq's boar or eat the boar or hunt the boar.

It seems to me that Martin is writing to keep Jon from tasting or eating pork or boar which I believe is symbolic of being killed as a leader ie king Robert and how later Cersei ate the boar.

3 different conversations went on with 3 individuals at that meeting.

WunWun being offered to Yarwick and declined.

Leathers brought up by Marsh

Satin brought up by Septon Cellador. Cellador plotted against Jon in the past with Slynt.

Also Jon overheard Marsh plotting once in the bath house over who should be LC so this ties in with Mance also overhearing.

I am also in agreement with the Mully in the plot idea especially after Mully brings up summer friends sayings when Jon is meeting with Iron banker.

[kissdbyfire]

Great post, Fire Eater.

I still struggle with the notion that Ghost’s reaction to Mully is significant in and of itself, though. Ghost was acting ‘all wild like’ and he even bristles and bares his teeth to Jon. Moreover, Mormont’s raven is behaving oddly as well.

Outside the armory, Mully and the Flea stood shivering at guard. “Shouldn’t you be inside, out of this wind?” Jon asked.

“That’d be sweet, m’lord,” said Fulk the Flea, “but your wolf’s in no mood for company today.”

Mully agreed. “He tried to take a bite o’ me, he did.”

“Ghost?” Jon was shocked.

“Unless your lordship has some other white wolf, aye. I never seen him like this, m’lord. All wild-like, I mean.”

He was not wrong, as Jon discovered for himself when he slipped inside the doors. The big white direwolf would not lie still. He paced from one end of the armory to the other, past the cold forge and back again. “Easy, Ghost,” Jon called. “Down. Sit, Ghost. Down.” Yet when he made to touch him, the wolf bristled and bared his teeth. It’s that bloody boar. Even in here, Ghost can smell his stink.

Mormont’s raven seemed agitated too. “Snow,” the bird kept screaming. “Snow, snow, snow.” Jon shooed him off, had Satin start a fire, then sent him out after Bowen Marsh and Othell Yarwyck. “Bring a flagon of mulled wine as well.”

[TheTowerOfJoy]

I like this one. Excellent reasoning.

[Fire Eater]

"As they passed, each warrior stripped off his treasures... ... all yielded up and noted down by Bowen Marsh. One man surrendered a shirt of silver scales that had surely been made for some great lord. Another produced a broken sword with three sapphires in the hilt"

Here's Jon letting in some wildlings. This might be the moment Bowen decided to kill Jon. The silver scales invoke a sense of justice/judgement that Bowen felt - he was judging Jon and felt he should be sentenced to death. Then you have the sword which represents the NW, the sword in the darkness. Notice it's broken, alluding to Bowen's perception Jon broke his vows. Finally you have sapphires in the hilt of that sword, sapphires are used to denote secrets - so this might be 3 conspirators within the Night's Watch plotting against Jon. Wick, Bowen and maybe Alliser.

Nice catch, although I think the broken sword refers to Bowen splitting from Jon with his own faction in the NW as the wildlings fractured are referred to as "a broken sword", and the men of the NW are "the sword in the darkness." I don't think Alliser is involved as he is beyond the Wall, outside their reach. I think the conspirators other than Bowen are possibly Cellador and Yarwyck, but those are just my guesses.

[King of Winters]

I like it Fire Eater. What do you think will happen after the major fight? Will the Queen's Men and NW beat the Wildlings and take over Castle Black?

[Roose The Weddingcrasher]

Looking forward to it. :commie:

You hypocrites! If Stannis was to do the turnings you would all be denying his justice! If I see one more post blaming Stannis for any execution... Ramsay will take another finger

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I think this makes a lot of sense, and I agree that the avoidance of specific "guest right" (i.e. hospitality coming from Jon himself) is intriguing.

Regarding the boar, this is an excerpt from the Food Code thread we had cooked (heh) up:

Borroq's boar gives Ghost (and Jon) fits on the Wall. Jon, however, tries to prevent Ghost from savaging the boar or fighting the boar. Interestingly, in the Shieldhall, which one might view as the "beginning of the end" of Jon's Wall regime, the boar is conspicuously ... absent.

The boar denotes regime or loyalty change. It shows up a lot: Robert's death, Winterfell before the ironborn sack, Arya and her friends before they get sent to Harrenhal, Roose at Harrenhal when he decides to betray Robb, Joffrey's wedding, Sansa's meeting with the Tyrells. We're talking at least a good half-dozen instances here. So I'd say the boar in Jon's chapter is fair game — and the above suggests that Jon will ultimately resist the change of his regime.

It’s that bloody boar. Even in here, Ghost can smell his stink.

Ghost senses that something is wrong, something is being done behind the scenes to undermine Jon. And if the raven — possessed at the very least and probably by Bloodraven himself — is agitated, then something's up.

Mostly though I like this analysis because it pretty easily contradicts the Marsh apologist argument of Jon being an awful deserter and poor Bowen had to do what was right and execute him for desertion. If the assassination had been planned and the only reason they did it was because of opportunity — an opportunity they'd lose if Jon left — then it pretty much blows a hole in the idea that Marsh is really the one being faithful to his vows here. For pete's sake, the guy's a simpering Lannister butt monkey who'd leave thousands of people on the other side of the Wall to die and return as wights that the Watch would eventually have to fight than make common cause with wildlings.

ETA: I am iffy though on the idea that Marsh will be able to successfully cow the queen's men or that the wildlings will take the brunt of the damage. I think that's up in the air.

[hecameburning]

Dont the wildlings severely outnumber the watch and the queens men?

[yolkboy]

ETA: I am iffy though on the idea that Marsh will be able to successfully cow the queen's men or that the wildlings will take the brunt of the damage. I think that's up in the air.

In the shield hall, right before the Patrek death distraction, we're reminded that the wildings have good numbers. The timing of this reminder seems suspicious.

The wildlings outnumbered the crows by five to one (in the hall)

Anyone know the wildling numbers vs. the queens men vs the NW at the wall?

Personally i think, given wildlings are opportunists and have been oppressed, they will take this chance to seize castle black, but id like to know the full numbers.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

In the shield hall, right before the Patrek death distraction, we're reminded that the wildings have good numbers. The timing of this reminder seems suspicious.

Anyone know the wildling numbers vs. the queens men vs the NW at the wall?

Personally i think, given wildlings are opportunists and have been oppressed, they will take this chance to seize castle black, but id like to know the full numbers.

I'm pretty sure that most of the men, certainly the ones capable of fighting, have already left with Stannis. Selyse has some queen's men with her but I doubt they outnumber the wildlings. The wildlings at this point would side with Jon, as would a substantial portion of the Watch, even now. I think you're likelier to see wildlings and loyal Watch brothers against Marsh's faction, with the queen's men staying out of it. Wun Wun killing Patrek is a wildcard, I admit. I hope Wun Wun doesn't get hurt. :(

[TepidHands]

Will Selyse do things without Mel's approval?

To paraphrase Nathan Arizona, Selyse wouldn't piss with her pants on fire without Mel's approval.

[Harlaw's Book]

I think Marsh will be keep the Wildings in check for as long as he has custody of Jon --creating a Defiance of Duskendale situation.

[yolkboy]

I'm pretty sure that most of the men, certainly the ones capable of fighting, have already left with Stannis. Selyse has some queen's men with her but I doubt they outnumber the wildlings. The wildlings at this point would side with Jon, as would a substantial portion of the Watch, even now. I think you're likelier to see wildlings and loyal Watch brothers against Marsh's faction, with the queen's men staying out of it. Wun Wun killing Patrek is a wildcard, I admit. I hope Wun Wun doesn't get hurt. :(

I think that's how it will start out, but surely if the wildlings are coming out on top, and Tormund (their temporary leader), realise they can gain power over a gaddam Castle (in their eyes its a proper castle), I think we'll see the wildlings take over. They have the numbers and tactics to win any skirmish in these conditions, they have just been religiously repressed, and opportunism is in their blood.

They are a proud people and when they realise they can gain power i dont expect much looking back. Tormund will of course initially side with Jon, but if Jon is temporarily 'dead' or incapacitated, with the NW maybe fighting each other, and the queens men religiously repressing them, what's he going to do? Think about his own people.