The Ides of Marsh

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

This, most possibly. While the assassination had been planned for some time, they had to act before Jon could organize the Wildlings and leave. It can play out in a number of ways but since, IMHO, the Wall is destined to fall, whether literally or figuratively, I don't think the outcome will be good.

Well I was mostly countering the argument that Bowen has some ironclad master plan to co-opt the queen's men and neutralize the wildlings. He might have such a plan on paper, but the assassination itself was sloppy, rushed and, dare I say, hesitant. Meaning, I don't think it follows that whatever Marsh had been planning up to this point will go through without a hitch. And there's a reason Marsh is a steward, even if he's the chief one.

[Victor227]

One thing I'd always wondered is why Selyse and the Queen's Men are so hostile with Jon, when Meli is so friendly. You'd think she'd have told Selyse that Jon had some vague, important role in what he was doing if she was so invested in him.

[Stoned Dragon]

<snip>

ETA: I also think that Bowen kept the pink letter from Selyse, and sent a message to the Boltons telling them to aid the NW against the wildlings, Jon is dead and Marsh will be willing to do anything to get on the good side of the Boltons and cooperate. I think that would even include handing Selyse, Shireen and their group over to the Boltons. Selyse would be oblivious to the fact that the LC she named is planning to screw her over.

I think Marsh is going to try and form an alliance with the Boltons, but that Stannis is going to win the Battle of Winterfell. Davos will arrive with Rickon and Stannis will install him as Lord of Winterfell, with Manderly as Lord Protector of the North. He'll receive Marsh's letter trying to form an alliance, and Stannis will march the combined forces of the North towards to Wall to end the coup, punish Bowen, and (probably) be on the frontline when the Wall falls and the Others make their move.

The most sensible explanation of the events concerning the Wall.

I also want to point out that in Storm of Swords, Tywin has this conversation with Pycelle. Jeor Mormont is slain, and Bowen Marsh has sent a letter to Tywin. And Tywin wants the Night's Watch to elect Janos Slynt as the new LC. And Tywin tells Pycelle to write a letter to Bowen Marsh saying 'give His Grace's fondest regards to Janos Slynt'.

And when Jon is beheading Janos Slynt in ADWD he says,

I think Bowen is working for Cersei. She had instructed Qyburn to get Jon murdered.

I have never really bought the idea that Jon's decision to march south somehow was the last straw for Bowen & co., it just didn't seem a big enough catalyst. I like the idea that Bowen was thinking about Cersei's letter when he planned the assassination, but I doubt they was anymore communication beyond that first letter. Bowen probably heard Jon read the Pink Letter and figured that the jig was up. Stannis was dead, his heir was a female child, and his cause could be effectively over. If true, that would mean the Lannisters were the only game in town, and his Lord Commander was going to march against their handpicked Warden of the North in the middle of a blizzard. Bowen & co. probably figured that killing Jon now would allow them to save face with the Lannisters.

[Free Northman]

The most satisfying outcome would be for Marsh to take over the Watch and for Jon to return in power, glory and fanfare in future to rip his guts out.

Martin's way, however will be for someone else to do for Bowen and for Jon to have no direct vengeance whatsoever.

See Ramsay inflicting all the suffering on Theon for no realistic reason whatsoever, while it was actually the Starks place to do so.

See others bringing Cersei and Tywin down when it was actually the Starks place to do so.

And see Stannis defeating the Ironborn when it was actually the Starks place to do so.

The list goes on. In short, Martin inflicts poetic justice on antagonists, but he unfortunately rarely leaves the antagonist in power for long enough that the wronged protagonist himself can exact vengeance directly and satisfyingly. Arya with the Tickler was a rare exception, which also makes it my favourite chapter in the books.

So in Marsh's case I expect him to bite the dust long before Jon's triumphant return, sadly.

[Fire Eater]

Well I was mostly countering the argument that Bowen has some ironclad master plan to co-opt the queen's men and neutralize the wildlings. He might have such a plan on paper, but the assassination itself was sloppy, rushed and, dare I say, hesitant. Meaning, I don't think it follows that whatever Marsh had been planning up to this point will go through without a hitch. And there's a reason Marsh is a steward, even if he's the chief one.

Well, when they found Jon was going to head South they knew it was now or never.

The one question in mind is what are Bowen and/or Selyse at CB going to do about Val?

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Well, when they found Jon was going to head South they knew it was now or never.

The one question in mind is what are Bowen and/or Selyse at CB going to do about Val?

I'm not sure why Val specifically is an immediate concern. Nor am I sure why Marsh, an obvious Lannister toadie, would attempt to work with or ally with Selyse. I think it's likelier that Marsh tries to round up the hostage list and acquiesce to Ramsay's demands, if he hasn't been dismissed with extreme prejudice by wildlings and/or Watch brothers in the meantime.

ETA: And yes clearly they knew it was now or never. That doesn't mean that whatever plan they may have been mapping out was ready for prime time.

[Fire Eater]

I'm not sure why Val specifically is an immediate concern. Nor am I sure why Marsh, an obvious Lannister toadie, would attempt to work with or ally with Selyse. I think it's likelier that Marsh tries to round up the hostage list and acquiesce to Ramsay's demands, if he hasn't been dismissed with extreme prejudice by wildlings and/or Watch brothers in the meantime.

ETA: And yes clearly they knew it was now or never. That doesn't mean that whatever plan they may have been mapping out was ready for prime time.

I'm just curious about Val's going to be doing before watching Jon be resurrected. I just think Marsh is going to be using Selyse, having her make him LC, just to be ready to hand her to the Boltons when they arrive at CB.

My guess is the Boltons are going to come to CB after they think Stannis is dead, feeling they have nothing left to worry about, telling Marsh to expect them. After Jon wakes up, and finds out the Boltons are headed towards CB that is when he goes out to meet them, my guess is Long Lake.

[Harlaw's Book]

I'm just curious about Val's going to be doing before watching Jon be resurrected.

My guess is that Val is going to be very busy. Sorry repeat myself, but I think Marsh has created a Defiance of Duskendale situtation. The Defiance ended when Barristan rescued Aerys from the Darklyns prison. At the Wall, IMHO, Val will be one the to be the Barristan analogue. One of the first things we know about Val is that she stole Jarl. Her big thing in ADWD is that she is able to find Tormund when seasoned rangers couldn’t. So GRRM seems to emphasizing that she is capable of stealth, she can go through enemy lines undetected, she’s can locate her target and bring the target back –the same skills Barristan needed when he went undercover to bring Aerys back. Thus, Val’s dressing in white may be foreshadowing that she is going play the role of a kingsguard.

So in Marsh's case I expect him to bite the dust long before Jon's triumphant return, sadly.

I agree that Marsh is going to be dealt with before Jon wakes up. But I’m ok with this because I think it will be Jon’s supporters that take Marsh out --in what appears to be a loose repeat of what happened between King Rickard Stark who took the Neck away from the Marsh King. King Rickard was the son of King Jon Stark. In Mormont’s speech when preparing Jon Snow’s class to take the oath, he states that the recruits are only sons the men of the NW will ever know. And it has been mentioned a few times that the king is the father of his people. So in that sense, Jon has a lot sons that are going to be itching to fight Bowen Marsh.

[bemused]

Harlaw's Book.. I think the thing about Val is that she will be revealed to be a seer.. It's not that she can slip through enemy lines undetected, or that she has great tracking skills ... it's that as she says , she knows where she must go, and she knows when to tell Jon to expect her back. She's confident no one will accost her , steal her ( beautiful though she is ) or harm her in any way.

About Bowen ,I don't have the time to say everything I'd like to right now, but the following is a post I made on another thread about what was , for me ,a recent find..

Before I had a speedy search function, I thought I remembered that Mormont talked about appealing to the 5 kings before leaving on his great ranging , but here's the scene , after Sam and Jon bring him the maps ( Sam has just left the room and Mormont's speaking to Jon )..

“Is that boy as big a fool as he seems?” the Lord Commander asked when he’d gone. “Fool,” the raven complained. Mormont did not wait for Jon to answer. “His lord father stands high in King Renly’s councils, and I had half a notion to dispatch him... no, best not. Renly is not like to heed a quaking fat boy. I’ll send Ser Arnell. He’s a deal steadier, and his mother was one of the green-apple Fossoways.”

“If it please my lord, what would you have of King Renly?”

“The same things I’d have of all of them, lad. Men, horses, swords, armor, grain, cheese, wine, wool, nails... the Night’s Watch is not proud, we take what is offered.” - ACoK

So, at that time , Mormont had sent Thorne to KL and intended to send Ser Arnell to Renly. In the same conversation , he tells Jon that Robb has been made king in the North, but says nothing of sending to him. At this point there's no mention of sending letters to the 5 kings....It's later , at the Fist, after Qhorin's men join them , that we read..

“True or false, the Wall must be warned,” the Old Bear said as Jon placed the platter between them. “And the king.”

“Which king?”

“All of them. The true and the false alike. If they would claim the realm, let them defend it.”

And to Sam, who Mormont thinks is not made for fighting, he says..

If it happens that we’re attacked, don’t go trying to prove otherwise, you’ll just get in the way. You’re to send a message. And don’t come running to ask what the letter should say. Write it out yourself, and send one bird to Castle Black and another to the Shadow Tower.” The Old Bear pointed a gloved finger right in Sam’s face.

Sam gets the ravens off..

GRRM has kept the letters to the 5 Kings deliberately hard to follow. The one to Stannis is broken up by Davos' struggles with reading, and the one Tywin receives is paraphrased by Pycelle, but they appear to be copies of the same letter. Here's Stannis' letter with all Davos' stumblings and Pylos' corrections removed...

* To the five kings,..The King Beyond the Wall comes south. He leads a vast host of wildlings. Mormont sent a letter from the haunted forest. He is under attack. Other birds have come since with no words. We fear Mormont slain with all his strength.. *

Davos doesn't take note of who signed it.... And here's the scene with Tywin's...

“My lord Hand,” the old man said, bowing as deeply as he could without falling, “there has been another bird from Castle Black. Mayhaps we could consult privily?”

“There’s no need for that.” Lord Tywin waved Grand Maester Pycelle to a seat. “Tyrion may stay.”

Oooooh, may I? He rubbed his nose, and waited.

Pycelle cleared his throat, which involved a deal of coughing and hawking. “The letter is from the same Bowen Marsh who sent the last. The castellan. He writes that Lord Mormont has sent word of wildlings moving south in vast numbers.” ..( my underline )

“The lands beyond the Wall cannot support vast numbers,” said Lord Tywin firmly. “This warning is not new.”

“This last is, my lord. Mormont sent a bird from the haunted forest, to report that he was under attack. More ravens have returned since, but none with letters. This Bowen Marsh fears Lord Mormont slain, with all his strength.”

What stands out here , is that it's another bird from the same Bowen Marsh who sent the last . The castellan.... Oh, really ? ... If Mormont had changed his mind and sent letters to the 5 kings before he left , he would have signed the first letter , not Bowen.

What was Bowen doing , writing to KL as soon as Mormont was away ? He could have easily snuck one by Aemon , because he's blind.. and Clydas ,as a steward, is subordinate to Marsh ,and bound to obey him as acting LC anyway...

So Bowen could have been in unseemly contact with the Lannisters for quite a while... and this could be held over Clydas' head to get him to co-operate later , in intercepting the pink letter..

And there's this little quote from Bowen to Jon in ADwD..

" .... Take the high ground and win the battle, my uncle used to say. No ground is higher than the Wall, Lord Commander.”

I had quite forgotten about King Rickard and the Marsh King..but that could be an ancient animosity Bowen nutures.. but more importantly , I'd really like to know who is this uncle in his quote.. because he may be a maternal uncle , not a Marsh , and could be a clue to Bowen's loyalties.

I'll have to come back later, because while I think Bowen has been playing Selyse.. I don't think he's been shown to be suitably clever , or such an adept manipulator , himself. For that, I think we need to look at Thorne.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

<snip>

The thing about Bowen and the letters and the possibility that Bowen was off the reservation as early as Clash is incredibly intriguing. Really great find, if I'm reading it correctly.

The castellan thing is also interesting. Did Mormont specify that Marsh was the castellan in his absence? Did Marsh identity himself as the castellan, or is Pycelle calling him that erroneously? I ask because being a castellan involves a great deal of authority. If Mormont explicitly named Bowen as castellan or Pycelle made an error, that's one thing. But if Bowen, who is a STEWARD, tried to pass himself off as a castellan without leave to do so, a title that confers on him some authority, that's another thing altogether.

[Mithras]

King Stark vs. Marsh King comparison is very good. If that is the case, Bowen must be hating Benjen too. So is it possible that, in his last ranging uncle Benjen is betrayed by his ranger friends (who are under Bowen's command) just like another favourite uncle Gerion?

[Arya kiddin']

The thing about Bowen and the letters and the possibility that Bowen was off the reservation as early as Clash is incredibly intriguing. Really great find, if I'm reading it correctly.

The castellan thing is also interesting. Did Mormont specify that Marsh was the castellan in his absence? Did Marsh identity himself as the castellan, or is Pycelle calling him that erroneously? I ask because being a castellan involves a great deal of authority. If Mormont explicitly named Bowen as castellan or Pycelle made an error, that's one thing. But if Bowen, who is a STEWARD, tried to pass himself off as a castellan without leave to do so, a title that confers on him some authority, that's another thing altogether.

From ASOS

“That old man?” Harma’s tone said she did not believe it. “He came himself ? Then who commands at Castle Black?”

“Bowen Marsh.” This time Jon answered at once. You must not balk, whatever is asked of you.

He was given command of Castle Black, and I think it is as good as being made castellan officially.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

From ASOS

He was given command of Castle Black, and I think it is as good as being made castellan officially.

Ah, thank you.

[Arya Targaryen]

As I read it, mostly everyone takes it for granted that Bowen stabbed Jon because he either let the wildlings in, or he decided to go south after the Pink Letter.

I think Bowen tried to kill Jon because he just learned Stannis died, and therefore they are screwed. That means I think that after the Pink Letter he would have tried to kill Jon even if he does not react and stays in Castle Black (or goes to Hardhome).

That being said, the assasination couldn't have been planned for long, though probably Bowen had some friends with whom he discussed the situation before anything happened. I'n nor sure the builder guy is in on it. And definitely not the most of the NW at CB.

Someone mentioned above that Bowen could fight the wildling hordes with only a few seasoned ranger and stewards he has. Well, I don't think Bowen stands a chance leading rangers against the wildlings, as they always were pro-Jon.

IIRC Toregg came to CB with about 50 wildlings, less, than Jon expected. I don't know how much Tormund had with him in the final chapter.

[diskoerekto]

about Marsh not eating/drinking, please see my earlier topic. That also drew my attention.

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/91264-somebody-put-something-in-jons-drink-crackpotish/?view=findpost&p=4631816

[SeanF]

When Marsh is listening to Mel, singing to R'hllor, while he's chained to a stake, it'll suddenly occur to him that siding with the Lannisters was less than optimal.

[Fire Eater]

snip

Very nice catch, I had completely missed that. I think with all the rangers disappearing in the North, Marsh suspected Mormont might die in what he felt might be a suicide misison, if not by the Others than by Mance Rayder. Bowen decided to lead the NW in the Battle of the Bridge of Skulls likely to show that he was capable as a military commander and leader.

about Marsh not eating/drinking, please see my earlier topic. That also drew my attention.

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/91264-somebody-put-something-in-jons-drink-crackpotish/?view=findpost&p=4631816

Not a bad theory, but I think Marsh's decision to kill Jon was rushed, and maybe the blade Wick used was poisoned.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Very nice catch, I had completely missed that. I think with all the rangers disappearing in the North, Marsh suspected Mormont might die in what he felt might be a suicide misison, if not by the Others than by Mance Rayder. Bowen decided to lead the NW in the Battle of the Bridge of Skulls likely to show that he was capable as a military commander and leader.

And let it also be said that the Bridge of Skulls incident, while a victory on paper, was still pretty stupid and does not speak well for Bowen's abilities as a commander.

1. The entire idea of Mance's was to have raiding parties hit several different points on the Wall to lure the strength of Castle Black away. Bowen took the bait.

2. The Watch lost something like 100 men in a battle that was only ever meant as a distraction from the main force that was hitting the crossing point at Castle Black.

3. Because of those heavy losses and Bowen's own injury, that garrison wasn't able to make it back in time to Castle Black when the real attack came, leaving the forces still at the castle to take heavier losses than they might have otherwise trying to defend it.

[Fire Eater]

And let it also be said that the Bridge of Skulls incident, while a victory on paper, was still pretty stupid and does not speak well for Bowen's abilities as a commander.

1. The entire idea of Mance's was to have raiding parties hit several different points on the Wall to lure the strength of Castle Black away. Bowen took the bait.

2. The Watch lost something like 100 men in a battle that was only ever meant as a distraction from the main force that was hitting the crossing point at Castle Black.

3. Because of those heavy losses and Bowen's own injury, that garrison wasn't able to make it back in time to Castle Black when the real attack came, leaving the forces still at the castle to take heavier losses than they might have otherwise trying to defend it.

Not to mention that Bowen named Ser Wynton Stout in charge of CB when he left, simply because Stout was the only knight in CB, ignoring the man's senility as exemplified by almost drowning in his soup.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Not mention that Bowen named Ser Wynton Stout in charge of CB when he left simply because Stout was the only knight in CB, ignoring the man's senility as exemplified by almost drowning in his soup.

Oh God that's right. What a friggin' moron.