The Ides of Marsh

[The Mother of The Others]

You people are prejudiced. You like Jon and don't want to see him stabbed. I like Jon and don't want to see him get stabbed either. But why is your reaction to the stabbing of Jon "Hey, let's all share the same blind spot!" (Marching to war is marching to war. That Watch-ending violation remains the same no matter what dirt you dig up about Marsh wearing a pocket protector dipped in the jizz of snarks. If Marsh premeditated the assassination, does that proove anything when Jon had also been premeditating the act of violating the Watch's charter in numerous ways for just as long. So the Watch was ending that day no matter what. And the unpopular kid in school won the race to end the Watch, not the guy everybody wanted to see end the Watch in a different way so we could cheer for the popular kid to get away with it. So building a case for premeditated assassination as if that scores points is kind of like picking at your emotional scabs to mark time. Which is what this site is for. It just seems that there's a central truth we're ignoring while building a side case against the stabbers, one big dolphin of truth that's groping us inappropriately with its big long nose while we desperately pretend it's not there so we can continue gathering all these little damning details about the stabbers like so many minnows of of micro-truth. Look at the dolphin, people! Address it.

The same here. Funny how someone about to break his vows dwells on formalities.

about to keep his vows. so no contradiction. adheres to formalities large and small. so he's going to follow the guest rights tradition and will predictably have a tough time breaking bread with someone he doesn't think is doing the job right, especially if he thinks Jon's behavior is destined to bring them into conflict when Jon stops following the vows and the stabbers have to stab. this is congruent behavior, it's adherance to traditions. it's stuck in the mud behavior, but that's the kind of place the Wall has always been, an organization mired in tradition, so that's the kind of person you run into there.

The Raven steals Jon's bacon so that Jon does not eat pork.

Staying out of the ol' pork trap. That's new--regime change politics summed up in a meat metaphor. The Raven is like his personal trainer slapping the bacon out of his hand just like a fat person gets treated on NBC.

I think the NW men at castle black are screwed hence George coming up with reasons to send pip and grenn away

(french accent): ah haw ha! It would be fortuitous for them to not die along with the Watch who's too close to the wildling camp. Although, frankly, I think we'll be seeing all of these guys again who fall now, including Patrek.

I think we'll find that Jon's assassination ended up being a botched rush job, even if the act itself had been planned. The element of surprise can equally work against Bowen -- Jon planning to depart and necessitating the rush-job assassination could mean that Marsh hadn't fully prepared for the fallout.

It was the last chance to act while they still had a chance to effect the fate of the Watch. So maybe the groundwork was being laid for some time to get that stabber posse together for when the time came. But you can see how they didn't want to go through with it because they waited for, like I said, the last possible moment before things got completely out of their hands. Hence, the rushed aspect, because events moved so quickly in that chapter, so it's going to be thrown together and botchy whether it was premeditated or not because they're letting wen wen choose their battlefield for them for example. They no longer have even the slightest control over the situation, like whether they're about to live or die. So this act was premeditated only in the sense that Jon had long been premeditating a Watch-breaking break with tradition and they saw it coming, though not the exact form it would take when he went over the top into unforgivable territory.

And there's a reason Marsh is a steward, even if he's the chief one.

He's crappy, and on top of that has been dealt a terrible hand by fate, put into this position that's so hated by readers and northern countrymen alike. I wish he wasn't also justified in doing what he did. Because then, if he'd done it without justification, that'd make it easy for me to join in with the rest of you as you party on in the blind spot you're camped out in. I see you tailgating and I smell your BBQ.

[bemused]

Oh God that's right. What a friggin' moron.

:D:D.. Ahem... Well said ! .. ( now I can't stop snickering )

But this is why I don't think Bowen could be the one manipulating Selyse ( if anyone has been ).Mance knew his plan would work as soon as he eheard Bowen had been left in charge, and it's clear from his AGoT conversation with Tyrion, that Mormont didn't think Bowen was fit to take command. He just didn't have much choice when he left on his great ranging.

In regard to numbers ,Toregg was among the wildlings already at CB.. after seeing Selyse ,Jon asks Leathers where he can be found.. but later in the chapter..

Tormund Giantsbane timed his arrival perfectly, thundering up with his warriors when all the shoveling was done. Only fifty seemed to have turned up, not the eighty Toregg promised Leathers

There must still have been quite a number of wildlings at CB full time , because Jon didn't have them all allocated yet. In his last chapter he tries to discuss the matter with Bowen and Othell...

Hoarfrost Hill and Rimegate still lacked garrisons, so Jon had asked their views on which of the

remaining wildling chiefs and war lords might be best suited to hold them. “We have Brogg, Gavin the Trader, the Great Walrus … Howd Wanderer walks alone, Tormund says, but there’s still Harle the Huntsman, Harle the Handsome, Blind Doss … Ygon Old-father commands a following, but most are his owns sons and grandsons. He has eighteen wives, half of them stolen on raids. Which of these …”

“None,” Bowen Marsh had said. “I know all these men by their deeds. We should be fitting them

for nooses, not giving them our castles.”

There's at least seven leaders ( excluding Howd Wanderer ) who would each have a following of fighting men themselves ( 10? 20? ..??) besides the 50 arriving with Tormund.

As to the capacity of the sheildhall ..

... it was large and long enough to seat two hundred, and half again that many if they crowded

close.

And...The wildlings outnumbered the crows by five to one, judging by how little black he saw.Fewer than a dozen shields remained, sad grey things with faded paint and long cracks in the wood. But fresh torches burned in the iron sconces along the walls, and Jon had ordered benches and tables brought in. Men with comfortable seats were more inclined to listen, Maester Aemon had once told him; standing men were more inclined to shout.

Since we do see at least some people standing , and subtracting the 1/5 NW brothers there still must be close to 200 Jon supporters right there. Actually, I'm sure not all the 40 or so NW would have been Marsh supporters, so that probably bumps the number up to well over 200.

And I find it intriguing that Morna White Mask isn't mentioned. Where was she ?

Jon remembers.. When he conferred Oakenshield on Tormund Giantsbane and Queensgate on Morna White Mask, Marsh pointed out that Castle Black would now have foes on either side who could easily cut them off from the rest of the Wall.

Morna is settled no further away from CB than Tormund , so she's one of the leaders you'd think would be there. Since the meeting was originally slated to make plans for the rescue of Hardhome , you'd think her inclusion in the mission ,or at least her advice would be valuable . As a witch herself, she might be expected to have some insight into how to approach Mother Mole.

I suspect George is just purposely not mentioning her, for now. She might have been in the shieldhall , or... (just my suspicion) she may have been with Val. If I'm right about Val being a Norse-style seer, when seeking a vision ,she might well be supported by another seer or witch on occasion, who knew the right songs, etc.

For such an important undertaking, you'd expect they would be looking for portents.. the most auspicious time to leave ,the best route to take , and so on.

Morna's immediate swearing to John ..the absolute nature of it.. before she had any experience of him , always made me think she'd "seen" something about him ( or trusted that Val had ) before it came to crossing through the wall.

I think Jon may also be at least partly wrong about Toregg's motives in spending so much time with Val. If she's a seer , she has to be secretive about it , being Stannis' prisoner and being in such close proximity to Mel. I'm thinking Toregg is acting as go-between , bringing the questions and concerns of the leaders to Val.

Mother of the Others ..No worries .. I'm quite sure your wish will be granted and Bowen will be proven not to be justified in the next book. Furthermore , if anything is being forecast, foreshadowed, alluded to in parallels, etc. it's that the oath itself has been corrupted from it's original form and intent..this will necessarily be corrected ..or none will survive.

Hopefully , none of us will have been too insulting to other people and their intelligence, even in hip-speak, to enjoy the discussion that will be sure to follow.

[Fire Eater]

:D:D.. Ahem... Well said ! .. ( now I can't stop snickering )

But this is why I don't think Bowen could be the one manipulating Selyse ( if anyone has been ).Mance knew his plan would work as soon as he eheard Bowen had been left in charge, and it's clear from his AGoT conversation with Tyrion, that Mormont didn't think Bowen was fit to take command. He just didn't have much choice when he left on his great ranging

As Robb showed, one can be a good military commander but a bad politican, the reverse is also true. Bowen is a bad military commander, but his skill in politics can be adequate.

Mother of the Others, what would you have expected Jon to do? If the pink letter was true, and Stannis was dead, then if Jon just stayed at CB the Boltons would eventually come and likely pose a danger to everyone at CB. As for mercy, these are the same Boltons who offered mercy to the men in WF's ruins if they helped to rebuild the castle, and then hanged them.

If Jon cooperated by handing over Selyse, Shireen, Gilly's babe, Val and the queen's men to the Boltons it would be sending them to their deaths. Val would likely be used for Ramsay's sport, and who knows what they would do with Shireen or Gilly's babe.

Jon saw it as his only way out.

[The Mother of The Others]

Well I'd hoped he wouldn't be so easily manipulated. His reaction to the letter was the letter-writer's wet dream. Whoever wrote the letter just totally won without firing a shot or losing a man. Jon just gave them their best case scenario by driving his car off a cliff all on his lonesome, thanks to just the easiest of nudges. (Words being wind and costing the writer little.... nothing in this case.) That's what I'd imagined Jon being smarter than. Well it turns out his red headed critic was right about him all along. (vis-a-vis "you know nothing.") He just got manipulated into acting like he indeed knew nothing. (Unless he and/or the red witch are actually doing some of their own manipulating of this situation that we don't know about yet).

He's basically damned if he do and damned if he don't. The key word being and. That's what people are ignoring. It's a lethal mistake to sit there and do nothing while death gathers around them from the south, but it's also a damning offense to turn the watch's blade southward against the realm. Under any circumstances, that should be a lord commander's last command. So to call the stabbers total shits as if there's no reason for what they did other than foul corruption is to miss the point of the whole Wall plotline. It's a tremendous bind Jon's in, and he didn't navigate it successfully. When the pressure reached the breaking point, he was the childish one who broke, yielding to his forbidden wishes to enter the war, successfully provoked into making his fatal (?) mistake by the letter writer. He was naked and alone without his fat accomplice to give him a better option. Sam would have counselled him down some compromise path that satisfied the bylaws of the Watch while also allowing them to start defending themselves. But he didn't have access to better counsel, so he went with what he had, which was..... not enough. He ran afoul of the way of things and the law won.

[Fire Eater]

When the pressure reached the breaking point, he was the childish one who broke, yielding to his forbidden wishes to enter the war, successfully provoked into making his fatal (?) mistake by the letter writer. He was naked and alone without his fat accomplice to give him a better option. Sam would have counselled him down some compromise path that satisfied the bylaws of the Watch while also allowing them to start defending themselves. But he didn't have access to better counsel, so he went with what he had, which was..... not enough. He ran afoul of the way of things and the law won.

Childish? Ramsay basically threatened the life of the LC. Jon didn't want to enter the war, as that isn't indicated in his POV, as he clearly had bigger things to worry about: integrating the wildlings with Tormund, saving the wildlings at Hardhome and of course, the Others.

Ramsay wanted Jon to be intimidated, and be willing to cave in to his demands given by the wording. I don't think Ramsay knows Jon well enough to manipulate him in the way you described as they have never met, and neither have Jon and Roose.

If Jon had died in battle, since the conflict was just between Jon and the Boltons, the Boltons might have tread easier with Jon's successor. If Jon managed to kill Ramsay and Roose, then the threat would have been eliminated.

[The Mother of The Others]

Childish? Jon didn't want to enter the war, as that isn't indicated in his POV.

Well, that says it right there. He got duped into doing what he didn't want to. He's reduced to that guy who tried to run off in the night long before to avenge Ned or whatever until his friends caught up with him and talked some sense into him. So to be that guy again as Lord Commander, that's a loss. In the Tywin style war of wills and quills, he just let the enemy set the agenda. Didn't keep his wits about him. The first to lose his cool loses. The letter makes it sound as if Ramsay (?) already lost his cool, so Jon felt it was okay to join in, since the battle had already been "joined" by Rams. But in reality, that's not what happened. The letter didn't commit Ramsay to anything, and in fact Jon is the one who flew off the handle first, as intended/hoped.

Hence childish, because he got goaded out of his cerebral LC self into lashing out wildly. Any hunter worth his... (salt, is it?) will then be able to easily anticipate and take advantage of prey that's been reduced to a rushing beserker blinded by rage into only simple direct lunges, since that's the mentality of a 4th grader swinging away and running straight into a well-measured backfist or tripping maneuver. If it wasn't the Watch themselves, it would have been Ramsay that caught him in a trap. Because thrashing around when you're on thin ice gets you sunk. Immediately. The Boltons eliminated the Wall as a concern in one fell swoop and can focus on other threats now. (Until the biggest threat descends on them all through the hole they just opened up in the wall).

Well, I don't go in for those pages-long back and forths, so anyone who wants can have the last word on this as I'm done disturbing the topic's flow. The intent was to rock the boat constructively, not to just throw poo, by the way. There may well have been premeditation, or "preparedness to stab", so it's good of you to find these clues. And it is ironic if they were more organized to attack Jon than to fight the Others. I get that. But that was the "emergency" they were more able to prepare for. Who can prepare adequately against the walking dead? No one's had to worry about that for generations. But a plan to deal with a wayward LC is more within the realm of human experience. You can at least try to cover that base. Adieu.

[Fire Eater]

Well, that says it right there. He got duped into doing what he didn't want to. He's reduced to that guy who tried to run off in the night long before to avenge Ned or whatever until his friends caught up with him and talked some sense into him. So to be that guy again as Lord Commander, that's a loss. In the Tywin style war of wills and quills, he just let the enemy set the agenda. Didn't keep his wits about him. The first to lose his cool loses. The letter makes it sound as if Ramsay (?) already lost his cool, so Jon felt it was okay to join in, since the battle had already been "joined" by Rams. But in reality, that's not what happened. The letter didn't commit Ramsay to anything, and in fact Jon is the one who flew off the handle first, as intended/hoped.

Jon isn't described as flying off the handle, and Ramsay didn't want to dupe him into fighting but intimidating and submitting him into handing over the described people in the letter. He does seem to consider his actions carefully, albeit with the thoughts on his sister. And again, I would put it as unfair as comparing to him going off to meet Ramsay to him AGoT going off to help his family, would you expect Jon to wait until the Boltons come to CB and pose a danger to everyone there? Jon was also likely considering the safety of people at CB. This is the same Ramsay who nailed the flayed corpses of Ironmen who surrendered on posts along the kingsroad.

The intent was to rock the boat constructively, not to just throw poo.

I guess that explains the smell then. I was wondering where that was coming from.

[Pod The Impaler]

Nice catch, although I think the broken sword refers to Bowen splitting from Jon with his own faction in the NW as the wildlings fractured are referred to as "a broken sword." I don't think Alliser is involved as he is beyond the Wall, outside their reach. I think the conspirators other than Bowen are possibly Cellador and Yarwyck, but those are just my guesses.

I think Alliser is involved. Marsh is too much a blinkered coward to mastermind it. Thorne could also have come back without being noticed (not necessarily to Castle Black, but another part of the Wall).

1. Selyse isn't the one behind the idea, Bowen is.

I actually do think Selyse is involved as well.

Marsh acted, but I suspect Thorne and Selyse may be behind it.

[bemused]

As Robb showed, one can be a good military commander but a bad politican, the reverse is also true. Bowen is a bad military commander, but his skill in politics can be adequate.

------------------------------------------------

I don't know what's up with the quote function... but from here on out is the reply. ;)

Well, I wouldn't say this is impossible , but I don't think it's likely, because I don't see Bowen as being particularly bright. To me, he's always displayed the characteristics of a follower .. I don't just mean someone who will follow orders .. I mean the kind who always has to have someone to look up to . His defence of Thorne to Tyrion in AGoT smacks of hero worship , a bit.

Tyrion says,

"... I have seen dead men with more humor than your Ser Alliser.”

“Not so,” objected the Lord Steward, Bowen Marsh, a man as round and red as a pomegranate. “You ought to hear the droll names he gives the lads he trains.”

I mean ,I don't say he can't conspire , obviously I think he can. I just don't think he can truly lead. He's naturally timid , made more fearful after the Bridge of Skulls. I can't see him as very intelligent , or the logic of depriving the Others of more potential wights would not be lost on him.

Now Thorne is another matter .. he was goading Slynt into executing Jon , and he was the one who quickly came up with the idea for the suicide mission when the first attempt failed.

We don't know who Thorne's friends at court were, or who it was that Bowen wrote to in the first letter..perhaps there's someone common to both, who would have a direct line to the Lannisters..we don't know.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I actually do think Selyse is involved as well.

Marsh acted, but I suspect Thorne and Selyse may be behind it.

Thorne, maybe. I can at least see that. Selyse, no. Like I've pointed out before, Bowen is by all evidence a straight-up Lannister butt monkey. Why then would he be in collusion with Selyse Baratheon, Stannis's wife. The guy who is right now the Lannisters' biggest enemy. Bowen's likelier to round up Selyse, Shireen, Val and the baby and ship them down to Ramsay than he is to work with Selyse to assassinate Jon.

[Mad Monkey]

Selyse is angry at Jon but I'm not sure that it's reached the tipping point yet. I think Jon's only major mistake here was not letting her know about her position re: Ramsay. She may not understand that Ramsay has asked the NW to help him massacre her entire family and that Jon is the person who is trying to prevent this. If she realized this, she might beef up her own personality security and withdraw any (theoretical) support she might give to a coup against Jon.

[Eira Seren]

Not to mention that Bowen named Ser Wynton Stout in charge of CB when he left, simply because Stout was the only knight in CB, ignoring the man's senility as exemplified by almost drowning in his soup.

With Jon's observation that Marsh is fond of calculating weights and measures, this just makes more and more sense (NOT as in sensible decision-making). Marsh, like our dear departed friend Royce from the Prologue of AGOT, is about to get really shown up. He's just the type to "go postal."

He adheres to the hierarchy of command (at least outwardly, the way he is accustomed to it working), but the situation calls for more common sense measures, ones that Marsh is having trouble imagining because they are outside of his weights and measures and because of the flaws in his character. So maybe GRRM has dealt him a bad deal, but the NW survival is going to require something far different than the established order of things.

.

[bemused]

I 've come to think Selyse has at least picked up on Bowen's whinging..and she may have been led by him.. but if so , on Thorne's instructions...

I'll be very brief with this next bit, since I've gone into it at length on threads I've started ( and others ;)) I think it's likely that Alliser Thorne is a CB, having returned through the Black Gate, been smuggled back to CB by Marsh ( with or without Yarwick's knowledge ) and has been staying in the little cell that Sam found in the wormways just before he left CB ( or another cell like it ).

Selyse arrived determined to move on to the Nightfort, then suddenly stopped asking about it. In the meantime, Bowen and Yarwick have been stalling Jon about the Nightfort ,and refusing the help of wildlings in speeding the effort up. ( Nothing to see here..)

There. So now I'll move on...

We hear Selyse parrot Bowen's arguments about the food shortage, so we know they've been discussing things..But it's far more sinister when she hints that Jon won't return from his mission to hardhome. I don't really think she's in their plot ( Apple Martini's point about plotting with Stannis' faction is well made ).. but I think the way has been paved for their original plan, which was to kill Jon on the ranging and put it down to wildlings ( exactly as Thorne accused Jon of planning for him ). And Selyse has been being prepared , manipulated into a co-operative state . I'm sure they're playing on her frustration at not being free to rule as she will.

I think Mel has made the mistake of paying little to no attention to Selyse. Well the woman is tedious. We see Mel making excuses to get away from her after Alys' wedding.. No doubt she did look for a vision of Stannis , but she was very quick to use that to escape Selyse. She sees Selyse as ineffectual ( though she , of all people ,should know how easy Selyse is to use ). Now that Mel's in with Stannis.. let Selyse amuse herself with dressing up Gerrick Kingsblood and marrying off his daughters ..

So, I don't think Mel was aware of the immediate nature of Selyse's plans for more weddings , or didn't realize the effect it would have on Ser Patrek. We don't know if he acted on his own , or at Selyse's prompting.. but I felt , when Selyse told Jon to send Val to her, she meant right away ( the Queen commands )..and when Val didn't turn up , she decided it was her right to go over Jon's head.

[Ser Pollo Loco]

:D:D.. Ahem... Well said ! .. ( now I can't stop snickering )

But this is why I don't think Bowen could be the one manipulating Selyse ( if anyone has been ).Mance knew his plan would work as soon as he eheard Bowen had been left in charge, and it's clear from his AGoT conversation with Tyrion, that Mormont didn't think Bowen was fit to take command. He just didn't have much choice when he left on his great ranging.

In regard to numbers ,Toregg was among the wildlings already at CB.. after seeing Selyse ,Jon asks Leathers where he can be found.. but later in the chapter..

Tormund Giantsbane timed his arrival perfectly, thundering up with his warriors when all the shoveling was done. Only fifty seemed to have turned up, not the eighty Toregg promised Leathers

There must still have been quite a number of wildlings at CB full time , because Jon didn't have them all allocated yet. In his last chapter he tries to discuss the matter with Bowen and Othell...

Hoarfrost Hill and Rimegate still lacked garrisons, so Jon had asked their views on which of the

remaining wildling chiefs and war lords might be best suited to hold them. “We have Brogg, Gavin the Trader, the Great Walrus … Howd Wanderer walks alone, Tormund says, but there’s still Harle the Huntsman, Harle the Handsome, Blind Doss … Ygon Old-father commands a following, but most are his owns sons and grandsons. He has eighteen wives, half of them stolen on raids. Which of these …”

“None,” Bowen Marsh had said. “I know all these men by their deeds. We should be fitting them

for nooses, not giving them our castles.”

There's at least seven leaders ( excluding Howd Wanderer ) who would each have a following of fighting men themselves ( 10? 20? ..??) besides the 50 arriving with Tormund.

As to the capacity of the sheildhall ..

... it was large and long enough to seat two hundred, and half again that many if they crowded

close.

And...The wildlings outnumbered the crows by five to one, judging by how little black he saw.Fewer than a dozen shields remained, sad grey things with faded paint and long cracks in the wood. But fresh torches burned in the iron sconces along the walls, and Jon had ordered benches and tables brought in. Men with comfortable seats were more inclined to listen, Maester Aemon had once told him; standing men were more inclined to shout.

Since we do see at least some people standing , and subtracting the 1/5 NW brothers there still must be close to 200 Jon supporters right there. Actually, I'm sure not all the 40 or so NW would have been Marsh supporters, so that probably bumps the number up to well over 200.

And I find it intriguing that Morna White Mask isn't mentioned. Where was she ?

Jon remembers.. When he conferred Oakenshield on Tormund Giantsbane and Queensgate on Morna White Mask, Marsh pointed out that Castle Black would now have foes on either side who could easily cut them off from the rest of the Wall.

Morna is settled no further away from CB than Tormund , so she's one of the leaders you'd think would be there. Since the meeting was originally slated to make plans for the rescue of Hardhome , you'd think her inclusion in the mission ,or at least her advice would be valuable . As a witch herself, she might be expected to have some insight into how to approach Mother Mole.

I suspect George is just purposely not mentioning her, for now. She might have been in the shieldhall , or... (just my suspicion) she may have been with Val. If I'm right about Val being a Norse-style seer, when seeking a vision ,she might well be supported by another seer or witch on occasion, who knew the right songs, etc.

For such an important undertaking, you'd expect they would be looking for portents.. the most auspicious time to leave ,the best route to take , and so on.

Morna's immediate swearing to John ..the absolute nature of it.. before she had any experience of him , always made me think she'd "seen" something about him ( or trusted that Val had ) before it came to crossing through the wall.

I think Jon may also be at least partly wrong about Toregg's motives in spending so much time with Val. If she's a seer , she has to be secretive about it , being Stannis' prisoner and being in such close proximity to Mel. I'm thinking Toregg is acting as go-between , bringing the questions and concerns of the leaders to Val.

Mother of the Others ..No worries .. I'm quite sure your wish will be granted and Bowen will be proven not to be justified in the next book. Furthermore , if anything is being forecast, foreshadowed, alluded to in parallels, etc. it's that the oath itself has been corrupted from it's original form and intent..this will necessarily be corrected ..or none will survive.

Hopefully , none of us will have been too insulting to other people and their intelligence, even in hip-speak, to enjoy the discussion that will be sure to follow.

I think she may be a moon singer, who have the powers to lead the bravosi to bravos, so she may have some inclination of the future

It may also link harhome, valyria, and the north/bravos

[Pod The Impaler]

Thorne, maybe. I can at least see that. Selyse, no. Like I've pointed out before, Bowen is by all evidence a straight-up Lannister butt monkey. Why then would he be in collusion with Selyse Baratheon, Stannis's wife. The guy who is right now the Lannisters' biggest enemy. Bowen's likelier to round up Selyse, Shireen, Val and the baby and ship them down to Ramsay than he is to work with Selyse to assassinate Jon.

Selyse intensely dislikes Jon, seeing him as primarily a bastard who is disobedient to her king and cause. (Like with Davos, but worse.) She respects the independence of the Watch even less than Stannis, and thinks the Wildlings are vermin. She is the most eager to sacrifice people to Rhillor, more to prove a point than for anything magical. In other words, she is dangerous and not the least bit averse to bumping off people she doesn't like.

Now, all this does not mean she would openly conspire with Lannister loyalists, but then again, she probably does not understand that Marsh and Thorne would be aligned that way. She is fundamentally an ignorant person, and as long as they kow-tow to her, she probably does not care to question their motives.

As well, let us not forget how Selyse covets all of Melisandre's attention - the fact that Melisandre clearly seems to like Jon Snow probably makes her jealous too.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Selyse intensely dislikes Jon, seeing him as primarily a bastard who is disobedient to her king and cause. (Like with Davos, but worse.) She respects the independence of the Watch even less than Stannis, and thinks the Wildlings are vermin. She is the most eager to sacrifice people to Rhillor, more to prove a point than for anything magical. In other words, she is dangerous and not the least bit averse to bumping off people she doesn't like.

Now, all this does not mean she would openly conspire with Lannister loyalists, but then again, she probably does not understand that Marsh and Thorne would be aligned that way. She is fundamentally an ignorant person, and as long as they kow-tow to her, she probably does not care to question their motives.

As well, let us not forget how Selyse covets all of Melisandre's attention - the fact that Melisandre clearly seems to like Jon Snow probably makes her jealous too.

It might make her jealous, sure, but equally, I think she respects Melisandre's power and authority enough to know that undermining one of her favorites is bad news.

[jarl the climber]

Thorne, maybe. I can at least see that. Selyse, no. Like I've pointed out before, Bowen is by all evidence a straight-up Lannister butt monkey. Why then would he be in collusion with Selyse Baratheon, Stannis's wife. The guy who is right now the Lannisters' biggest enemy. Bowen's likelier to round up Selyse, Shireen, Val and the baby and ship them down to Ramsay than he is to work with Selyse to assassinate Jon.

I do not see Marsh as a but monkey but he does think that its likely that Tommen will end up consolidating his control of the throne. When that happens the Watch could be doomed if it seen as supporting Stannis. Marsh refused to attend Alys Karstarks wedding so I think his wish to distance himself from Stannis and his people is well known. Personally I think Thorne is still North of the Wall, but I agree that Marsh would want to give up the people that Ramsey asked for.

[jarl the climber]

It might make her jealous, sure, but equally, I think she respects Melisandre's power and authority enough to know that undermining one of her favorites is bad news.

She puts up with Davos even though her kinsman was passed over as Hand and the other relative who was Davos's predecessor was arrested and killed. As far as we can see Mel is determined to win Jon over not conspire to kill him.

[thewingedwolf]

Like I've pointed out before, Bowen is by all evidence a straight-up Lannister butt monkey.

Some evidence to support this . . .

1. In AFFC, Cersei plots to send Osney Kettleback to the Wall for being caught seducing Margeary Tyrell so he cal kill Jon Snow, however, that plan fails when Osney is tortured by the High Septon. Cersei is then arrested by the HIgh Septon and the rest is history.

2. Cersei, however unstable she may be, did not lack in cunning and may have had a plan B in case Osney was not up to the task or maybe thought he could not be trusted to carry out the job so she reached out to someone else at the NW (new recruits arrived, there was chaos at Castle Black, a spy or an enoy could have easily slipped in and delivered a message unnoticed).

3. When Bowen Marsh says "for the watch" while he stabs Jon Snow, I believe, was referring to some either military or financial compensation promised by the Iron Throne to the NW if Bowen was to murder LC Snow. As the first Steward of the NW, Bowen Marsh knew better than anyone that the supplies were not enough to last the winter and the NW desperately needed more men and resources if they were to survive the winter.

In my opinion, point 3 is the key. I always believed that "For the watch" was misinterpreted.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Some evidence to support this . . .

1. In AFFC, Cersei plots to send Osney Kettleback to the Wall for being caught seducing Margeary Tyrell so he cal kill Jon Snow, however, that plan fails when Osney is tortured by the High Septon. Cersei is then arrested by the HIgh Septon and the rest is history.

2. Cersei, however unstable she may be, did not lack in cunning and may have had a plan B in case Osney was not up to the task or maybe thought he could not be trusted to carry out the job so she reached out to someone else at the NW (new recruits arrived, there was chaos at Castle Black, a spy or an enoy could have easily slipped in and delivered a message unnoticed).

3. When Bowen Marsh says "for the watch" while he stabs Jon Snow, I believe, was referring to some either military or financial compensation promised by the Iron Throne to the NW if Bowen was to murder LC Snow. As the first Steward of the NW, Bowen Marsh knew better than anyone that the supplies were not enough to last the winter and the NW desperately needed more men and resources if they were to survive the winter.

In my opinion, point 3 is the key. I always believed that "For the watch" was misinterpreted.

Well I think the biggest piece is simply that Bowen makes a fuss about what Tywin will think and throws his weight behind Slynt, who is the Lannisters' pick as LC.