The Ides of Marsh

[im317]

Some evidence to support this . . .

1. In AFFC, Cersei plots to send Osney Kettleback to the Wall for being caught seducing Margeary Tyrell so he cal kill Jon Snow, however, that plan fails when Osney is tortured by the High Septon. Cersei is then arrested by the HIgh Septon and the rest is history.

2. Cersei, however unstable she may be, did not lack in cunning and may have had a plan B in case Osney was not up to the task or maybe thought he could not be trusted to carry out the job so she reached out to someone else at the NW (new recruits arrived, there was chaos at Castle Black, a spy or an enoy could have easily slipped in and delivered a message unnoticed).

3. When Bowen Marsh says "for the watch" while he stabs Jon Snow, I believe, was referring to some either military or financial compensation promised by the Iron Throne to the NW if Bowen was to murder LC Snow. As the first Steward of the NW, Bowen Marsh knew better than anyone that the supplies were not enough to last the winter and the NW desperately needed more men and resources if they were to survive the winter.

In my opinion, point 3 is the key. I always believed that "For the watch" was misinterpreted.

yes because the Watch really needs the thrones non existent gold now that they have the backing of the Iron Bank :bs:

[Arya Targaryen]

yes because the Watch really needs the thrones non existent gold now that they have the backing of the Iron Bank :bs:

But the Watch does not know of the Iron Bank - Jon didn't tell anyone. I never understood why.

[bemused]

I think she may be a moon singer, who have the powers to lead the bravosi to bravos, so she may have some inclination of the future

It may also link harhome, valyria, and the north/bravos

There may well be a connection , but I would imagine the evolution to go the other way. Valyria had slaves from many different places , and could certainly have had some from northern Westeros. So it may be that the Moonsingers evolved from slaves who practiced the religion of the old gods and had the same cultural practices that we see hinted at now in Val and Dalla. But the Moonsingers have no doubt evolved their own divergences as well.

If GRRM has based his version of whatever Val and Dalla are on the Norse Vala.. they were seers and finding propitious locations ,etc. was one of their well known powers. I think this is how Val knew where to find Tormund , and when Mance says he "met" Dalla on his way back from his last visit to Winterfell, I suspect it was Dalla who had identified him , through visions, as the leader she would tie her fate to and knew where to find him.. Of course, that all depends on how much or how little of the nature of the Vala GRRM intends to use..but I'm eager to find out.

I don't think Selyse would co-operate knowingly with Lannisters... and I don't think she was grief stricken about her kinsman being burnt. After all, he was trying to negotiate a deal for Stannis to bend the knee..and thereby deny her her place as rightful Queen. That couldn't have gone down well...But she's very gullible and all Bowen's insinuations and even the outright smears that are Thorne's stock in trade would easily take her in.

[Kevvy]

I think people are looking too far into this conspiracy, obviously it had been planned - but a few weeks in advanced at most; I don't think its dating back any great length of time. Nor do I think it was done out of anything other than a sense of duty - I think I'm the only person who actually sympathises with Marsh... if I were him, I'd probably have done the same. Here you see this new LC throwing away everything you believe your order stands for - inviting people you've been fighting your whole life to come over, inadvertently taking sides in a war, having to worry about feeding more people than you have the supplies for. Marsh didn't commit this act for money or part of a Lannister plot, he actually did it 'For the Watch', the tears streaming down his face gives it away that its not something he relished doing, but it was something that needed to be done.

As you can tell, totally in the Marsh camp on this one :commie:

[Mithras]

I think the assasination attempt can better be understood once we know whether the pink letter is genuine or delayed and altered to be delivered to Jon in the most proper time.

[Swordofthemornin]

I think that's how it will start out, but surely if the wildlings are coming out on top, and Tormund (their temporary leader), realise they can gain power over a gaddam Castle (in their eyes its a proper castle), I think we'll see the wildlings take over. They have the numbers and tactics to win any skirmish in these conditions, they have just been religiously repressed, and opportunism is in their blood.

They are a proud people and when they realise they can gain power i dont expect much looking back. Tormund will of course initially side with Jon, but if Jon is temporarily 'dead' or incapacitated, with the NW maybe fighting each other, and the queens men religiously repressing them, what's he going to do? Think about his own people.

I agree, I think this will be the end of the NW, Wildlings will go to war with the culprits of Jons demise. What happens to the Queens men? unsure, they may stay out of it, else they will likely be done for aswell.

[Fire Eater]

I think people are looking too far into this conspiracy, obviously it had been planned - but a few weeks in advanced at most; I don't think its dating back any great length of time. Nor do I think it was done out of anything other than a sense of duty - I think I'm the only person who actually sympathises with Marsh... if I were him, I'd probably have done the same. Here you see this new LC throwing away everything you believe your order stands for - inviting people you've been fighting your whole life to come over,

Inviting people you've been fighting your whole life? So instead of joining forces against the Others one would rather have them come back as wights? Stannis let everyone through the Wall the first time, and as Jon pointed out what would one have him do, take up swords against Stannis? Stannis has thrice the fighting swords the NW has.

You agree with planning to murder the LC? Marsh killed Jon for the watch akin to the way Varys killed Kevan for the realm.

[kissdbyfire]

I think people are looking too far into this conspiracy, obviously it had been planned - but a few weeks in advanced at most; I don't think its dating back any great length of time. Nor do I think it was done out of anything other than a sense of duty - I think I'm the only person who actually sympathises with Marsh... if I were him, I'd probably have done the same. Here you see this new LC throwing away everything you believe your order stands for - inviting people you've been fighting your whole life to come over, inadvertently taking sides in a war, having to worry about feeding more people than you have the supplies for. Marsh didn't commit this act for money or part of a Lannister plot, he actually did it 'For the Watch', the tears streaming down his face gives it away that its not something he relished doing, but it was something that needed to be done.

As you can tell, totally in the Marsh camp on this one :commie:

Potato, potatoe. What you call a 'sense of duty' I call deep-rooted prejudices and narrowmindedness.

Everything you [Marsh] believe your order stands for doesn't necessarily mean everything your order does stand for.

And I'm sorry... leaving people to die of exposure and starvation because you don't have enough to feed them is better than say, getting a loan from a bank (!) and keeping everyone fed and warm? And having garrisons on all the abandoned castles - the cherry on the sundae.

[bemused]

Kevvy .. The trouble with Marsh is that he's either too stupid to see Jon's well reasoned argument about the dead becoming wights , or too stubborn to admit it , because he disapproves of Jon as LC , and he has outside political affiliations... Even the Flint and the Norrey , whose clans have been the target of wildling raids for generations ,can see the logic of Jon's reasoning and seem satisfied with the precautions he's taking (e.g. hostages).

The watch cannot go back to the way things were. Even without Jon..there would still be Stannis to deal with , and more than 4000 wildlings already south of the wall ( a great number of whom have declared personal loyalty to Jon ). Bowen doesn't even have the certain loyalty of the rest of the Watch. Tywin is dead. Even if he thinks the Lannisters will send the Boltons to support him , that can't be done quickly enough to do much good.

His tears are ,to one degree or another ,for himself. This is a fearful man . Now that he's been forced to act publicly , he knows he's not going to escape unscathed.He tried warning Jon that he could be killed on the ranging ( but Jon is a braver man than Bowen )... The same point has been made to Selyse , by someone ..presumably Bowen , himself.

OTOH, if Thorne is involved.. I don't think he really cares what happens to Bowen, or the Watch... He says 15 years of his life have been squandered in the Watch. I think deep down, his resentment at being there is only exceeded by his hatred of Jon and Starks ( for reasons yet to be given by GRRM ). If he's calling the shots , Bowen's choices would likely be either act , and possibly be killed , or don't act and be killed for sure by Thorne.

ETA; It's true , they may believe Stannis to be dead ..but then why not let Jon and the wildlings run off and be dealt with by the Boltons ?.. They must have some doubts of Stannis' death , themselves ,to risk public execution of their LC.

[Ygrain]

Potato, potatoe. What you call a 'sense of duty' I call deep-rooted prejudices and narrowmindedness.

Everything you [Marsh] believe your order stands for doesn't necessarily mean everything your order does stand for.

And I'm sorry... leaving people to die of exposure and starvation because you don't have enough to feed them is better than say, getting a loan from a bank (!) and keeping everyone fed and warm? And having garrisons on all the abandoned castles - the cherry on the sundae.

This is one of the moments when I really miss the Like button. Not being able to grasp that the people you have been fighting your whole life are now allies against a merciless common enemy? That's supposed to be right? Men like Marsh, Thorne or septon Cellador perfectly demonstrate how low the Watch has fallen.

[Ser Greg of House House]

Nice thread. 999th and probably the last one.

[Ghost's Shadow]

Bemused, I couldn't deduct if you know or not, but I read once that Thorne's hatred stems from the fact that the Starks won the rebellion, and he, as a Targ loyalist, could chose for his death or the Wall?

So yeah, hatred for Jon right there, not knowing that he's possibly hating his (in his Targ loyalist eyes) King. :lol:

[Muggle]

If Marsh is able to convince Selyse and her men to side with his faction of the NW it wont matter. Selyse is still Mel's creature and Mel is becoming more and more aware of how valuable Jon is. Mel also is aware of Jon and Val's / Tormund's relationship. The wildlings accept and respect Tormun and Val, Mel is the key to settling the dispute and bringing peace to the event. By using Val and Tormund to ease the wildling's and using Selyse to ease the queen's men. These two factions will work with the Jon loyal NW to root out Marsh and his faction.

I believe Jon is AA and thus i believe Mel is extremely important in the next two books helping Jon along the way and also helping jon get threw this event in healing him making his flesh of fire or turning him into an Un Jon, Or helping Jon warg one of the dead bodies locked up in the ice cell. Also helping Jon with the political side of the event. By taking charge when Jon is unconscious settling the dispute as above.

[Mithras]

Normally as a Targaryen royalist, Thorne should be hating Tywin hell more than Starks. He is the one who sacked KL by treachery. He is the one who sent him to the Wall. Tywin's men butchered the royal children and Tywin's son killed the king. The only reasonable explanation of his hatred to Starks may be due to he is jealous of Benjen.

I also agree that Marsh is very stupid. He thinks that once the gates are sealed, no creature can pass the Wall regardless of their numbers. GRRM will prove him deadly wrong. I think he will get all the doors sealed. Val will take Jon through the Gorne's way to Bloodraven. Mel and co. will follow them.

[Ghost's Shadow]

Tell that to Thorne? :lol:

Even after 15 years on the Wall he's not even made himself useful.

About Marsh: I can't decide if he should die right now, or later when they're invading and he can see how they crawl over the Wall (see Jon's possibly prophetic vision). Though other times I reserve that 'keep them alive for a while longer' for Cersei so she can meet the Wights/Others.

[The Mother of The Others]

I guess that explains the smell then. I was wondering where that was coming from.

[i was going to apologize in case some stink wafted your way from that first post, because I did kind of let it all go there. What you're smelling is a combination of grilled onions, hamburger meat, a side order of correctness, chili beans, a dash of haughtiness followed by more, and the gentler notes of a hot apple dessert thingee from Stouffers. I'll turn the fan on.]

Jon isn't described as flying off the handle,

[um, all I can do is suggest you try another of the rereads you guys are always doing. ]

and Ramsay didn't want to dupe him into fighting but intimidating and submitting him into handing over the described people in the letter.

[my reading of the letter is just better: It wasn't intended to get the results it demanded. It was intended to get the kind of results it got---undermine Stannis' influence at the wall by removing Stannis' LC. Rattle Jon into making a misstep. Create ructions within the already strained Watch. Now Stannis will have no home base there to go back to and the Boltons are less surrounded than they were at day's start. Fortunately, Bolton's troops are about to fall through the thin ice too, more lethally than Jon did.]

would you expect Jon to wait until the Boltons come to CB and pose a danger to everyone there? Jon was also likely considering the safety of people at CB. This is the same Ramsay who nailed the flayed corpses of Ironmen who surrendered on posts along the kingsroad.

[this again. It doesn't matter what I expect him to do about the 2nd threat coming (Bolton troops) if he never even makes it through the 1st threat (losing his cool) because he mishandled it so badly that his reign as LC won't survive long enough to face the 2nd threat with an intact Watch. Also, the second threat wasn't real, the troops aren't coming anytime soon; the only real test was the one he failed. True, there was no way for him to know for sure it was a bluff, but there was a way for him to pass that first test and then worry about crossing the next bridge when they came to it.]

Some evidence to support this . . .

When Bowen Marsh says "for the watch" while he stabs Jon Snow, I believe, was referring to some either military or financial compensation promised by the Iron Throne to the NW if Bowen was to murder LC Snow.

They've had to endure some very unprofessional kinging lately, with kings running around doing all kinds of unwise stuff that'd make the Watch nervous to be allied with a losing power like Stannis, sure, because the Lannisters have shown themselves petty enough to send a battallion to the Wall to knick off the heads of any traitor types they can round up. And news of Stan's death in the mail would mean they'd now be counting the days until the crown's reprisal came to find them undefended by the army that got them in trouble to begin with, potentially. So it's a great time to make a public show of how the Watch is righting its own ship and throwing off the taint of Stannis on its own, getting rid of the LC who threw in with Stannis. This in the hopes that the crown will see them as loyal French resistance fighters who reclaimed the neutrality of the Watch as soon as they could after Stannis so rudely captured the Wall.

I don't think Selyse would co-operate knowingly with Lannisters... .

Selyse reminds me of that guy who was living in Nicole or O.J.'s poolhouse when the murder went down. She's primarily concerned with getting the hot tub working in time for the party and moving into a better mansion as soon as possible, picking nits here and there socially to keep herself entertained in the meantime. She may not be part of any big conspiracy, since conspirators would probably do best to tunnel right around her rather than involve her.

The upshot of all the upheaval at the Wall is that we probably will see a changed Watch emerge with a more capable & united leadership group who'll respond better when the crisis (FINALLY!) comes.

[bemused]

Ghost's Shadow..yes, I knew how Alliser came to be at the wall. He and Jaremy Rykker were sent at the same time by Tywin and the choice was that they would be executed by the end of that very day ,if they did not take the black..so there would be no appealing to Robert, who would be more inclined to forgive , so long as they bent the knee.

Thorne definitely doesn't like Tyrion when he visits..yet there he was later on,supposedly supporting Tywin's man at the wall. I doubt that was genuine support because he was obviously manipulating Slynt. It was taking advantage of Slynt's own anti-Stark sentiments. If Tywin planned to take Jon out as a precaution , I don't think he'd had a chance to suggest it to Slynt yet. Tyrion had already sent Slynt to the wall before Tywin arrived in KL, and Tywin's first step was to get Slynt elected.

This makes me feel that there's more to it than just fighting on opposite sides of the rebellion. Jaremy Rykker shows no signs of the same resentment. Jealousy of Benjen ? ..that's not enough for me , either.

Thorne has never been ranging . He doesn't have a ranger's skills. He was actually given a senior position right away ( Master of Arms)..one that would put his skills to best use , and could have earned him a lot of respect and friendship . Look at the way Robb and Jon , and even Theon ,to an extent, think of Rodrik Cassel.

Compare this to the way Thorne's charges feel about him.

We can imagine Benjen's own attitude by what he tells Jon - he will have to earn any position he hopes to attain . His family will mean nothing. This doesn't lead us to think Benjen was instantly given a senior position.

Thoren Smallwood was friendly with Alliser, and he was jealous of Benjen, but I can't see Thorne developing the level of hatred he displays over someone else's imagined slights.

With hindsight, it seems like the same old pattern, to me. Thorne will identify someone with an axe to grind against the Starks and nuture it through smears and insinuation and playing on their rancour.

So I think we'll find out more about the source of Alliser's animosity.

[Starks Among Us]

Don't the Wildlings outnumber the NW? So if a rumble does take place, won't the Wildlings have the numbers????

[Fire Eater]

Don't the Wildlings outnumber the NW? So if a rumble does take place, won't the Wildlings have the numbers????

But Bowen will have the element of surprise, and the wildlings lack unity and discipline.

Mother of the Others, Ramsay did believe Stannis was dead at the time of the letter. At the Battle of Ice, Stannis and Manderly concoct a plan. When Ramsay arrives, Manderly will have the heads of men resembling Stannis and his followers along with Stannis's sword, Lightbringer. Ramsay thought Jon would be intimidated now that Stannis is dead, and Jon has no one else to turn to. We didn't see Jon losing cool, flying into a rage so to speak, he seemed calm.

[Mithras]

Alliser's enmity to Starks may not exist at all. We know nothing of him before Jon came except that he is full of mockeries and insults to the recruits. This is his way of training the future NW brothers and Jon screwed all it up. He still hates Lannisters but he hates Jon above everything else.