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NFL Week 8: End of the Weeden Dynasty


sperry

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And you have to learn to laugh at some of the predictions you make. Like the fact that this year I predicted that the Giants would win the NFC East. If you can't laugh at that....

Yeah. I thought the Cowboys would win the division, but I wasn't really right. I thought they would actually be good, not that they would be the same mediocre team they always are but that would actually win the division this year.

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Here are Calvin Johnsons numbers as of today, about half way through his 7th season:

99 Games, 535 rec for 8657 yards, 16.2 yds per rec, 61 TDs and around 87.4 yards per game

Other WR we have been discussing after their first 7 seasons (and just remember that every one of these guys will have had ½ more of a season under their belts than Johnson because this season is still going on)

Jerry Rice

108 G, 526 Rec, 9072 yards, 17.2 Y/R, 93 TDs, 84 yds per game

Randy Moss

109 G, 574 Rec, 9142 yards, 15.9 per rec, 90 TDs, 83.9 yds per game

Lance Alworth

82 G, 394 Rec, 7973 Yards, 20 yards per rec, 73 TDs 97.2 Yards per game

Terrell Owens

106 G 512 Rec, 7470, 14.6 Y/R, 72 TDs, 70.5 Y/G

Andre Rison

110 G, 522 Rec, 7154 Yards, 13.7 Y/R, 63 TDs 65 Y/G

Michael Irvin

96 G, 416 rec, 6935 yds, 16.7 y/r, 40 TDs, 72.2 Yds per game

Andre Reed

106 G, 469 Rec, 6466 Yards, 13.8 Y/R, 49 TDs, 61 Y/G

Cris Carter

101 G, 327 Rec 4577 Yds, 14 Y/Rec, 42 TDs, 45.3 Yds per game

Tim Brown

96 G, 316 Rec, 4734 Yds, 15 y/rec, 36 Tds, 49.3 Yds per game

To belabor a point, I'd like to show Herman Moore's first 7 years.

The Forgotten Lion!!

102 G, 528 Rec, 7,484 Yds, 14.4 y/rec, 52 Tds.

Surpasses a lot of people on the list, but he peaked in his 7th year and injuries would only allow him to play 2 more full seasons.

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I do find it annoying that in the sports media there is no reward for success or demotion for failure.  You keep on prognosticating til the end of time regardless of your success or lack therof in actually making the predictions you're paid to make.

That sucks in a way but they aren't paid to be right. They aren't paid to be smart. They're paid to be entertaining

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And seeing as how we are at the halfway point of the season, how bout some Westeros prognostications that we can all put down in stone and refer back to at season's end? I'll go first if ya'll are game...

NFC West: S.F. as divisional champ with SEA as a wildcard

NFC East: DAL as divisional champ and no wildcard

NFC South: N.O. as divisional champ with CAR as wildcard

NFC North: GB and no wildcard

AFC West: KC as divisional champ with DEN as wildcard

AFC East: NE as divisional champ with no wildcard

AFC South: IND as divisional champ no wildcard

AFC North: CIN as divisional champ with BAL as wildcard

Alright I'll have a go at it, but knowing my prediction history I will be about 66.67% wrong.

NFC West: SEA as divisional champ with SF as a wildcard

NFC East: DAL as divisional champ and no wildcard

NFC South: N.O. as divisional champ with no wildcard

NFC North: GB as champs and DET wildcard

AFC West: DEN as divisional champ with KC AND SD as wildcards

AFC East: NE as divisional champ with no wildcard

AFC South: IND as divisional champ no wildcard

AFC North: CIN as divisional champ with no wildcard

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For a while I went back and looked at my predictions and rated myself - because while it's neat to see where you called it right, it's also really intellectually dishonest to only do it when you're right. I hate that folks like Clayton are completely not called on their wrong predictions and just move on like 'of course that's what I thought'.



So yeah, I predicted Wilson would be the starter of the Seahawks when he got drafted - but I also predicted crazy things like Oakland doing well and Denver sucking last year.





I think to have any credibility you gotta admit when you're wrong in addition to where you're right.



Most of my big predictions have been about players rather than teams. Trent Richardson made me wrong twice, both defending when the Browns drafted him and when the Colts gave up a first rounder for him. I never thought Eli Manning would amount to anything and I'm still shocked he did. My 2006 self would be absolutely shocked that both Vince Young and Matt Leinart are already out of the game and have been for years. I also remember being distinctly happy when the Redskins got Jason Campbell in the 2005 draft as opposed to those scrubs Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers. There was about a 3 year honeymoon where I was feeling totally justified with that while Smith sucked ( and Rodgers didn't play (and the one time he came in for Favre, he looked terrible). Good times.



The flip side is I had Mark Sanchez nailed before he was drafted. Had a really good sense of who all the 2012 QBs would be - wanted RGIII month before the Skins were in position to get him, Wilson was big time underrated, Weeden didn't seem like a franchise guy etc. And hey if Brock Osweiler ever amounts to something, I'll apologize. Also felt that virtually every decision Josh McDaniels made was insane from getting rid of Cutler (and Marshall) while trying desperately to bring in Matt Cassel and ultimately settling on Kyle Orton. From drafting Knowshon Moreno to Tebow to DeMaryius Thomas over Dez Bryant. Only the last one is really still up in the air though I still think Dez is more dynamic (certainly on the sidelines - hey-o!) But in a perverse way, the Broncos aren't where they are today if not for everything McDaniels did. His near total managerial incompetence paved the way for Peyton Manning and Von Miller and Wes Welker and half a dozen other guys who allowed them to reach peaks they almost certainly never would've if they'd kept Shanny and Cutler and had another string of 8-10 win seasons.



I guess the point is, you can end up right for the wrong reasons, like the Broncos did. It don't make you a genius.


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Alright I'll have a go at it, but knowing my prediction history I will be about 66.67% wrong.

NFC West: SEA as divisional champ with SF as a wildcard

NFC East: DAL as divisional champ and no wildcard

NFC South: N.O. as divisional champ with no wildcard

NFC North: GB as champs and DET wildcard

AFC West: DEN as divisional champ with KC AND SD as wildcards

AFC East: NE as divisional champ with no wildcard

AFC South: IND as divisional champ no wildcard

AFC North: CIN as divisional champ with no wildcard

My picks exactly. Although I will not be shocked if the Cardinals or the Panthers somehow end up as a WC team beating out the Lions.
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Watch out. Green Bay is 4th in the NFL in rushing. This ain't happened in a long time. Sure, it's partly by necessity, but they actually seem to have some game on the ground. Rodgers play-action is something y'all ain't really have had to ponder yet.

Offensively they're better than good, but it's their pass defense that concerns me. If they can tighten that up, then look out. That PA pass by Rodgers almost always results in a touchdown, and if they can get the necessary stops they'll beat anyone. And that run defense is quietly one of the best in the league as well.

The Packers this year remind me of the 2010 squad that was successful with the 'next man up' philosophy. That has resulted in some nice finds like Boykins as a playmaker, and Hyde as a promising special teams guy.

But yeah that rushing attack is legit. Any guy they plug in seems to have a big day, whether it be Starks, Franklin or Lacy - that's a good sign for the overall scheme. Anyway, what happened to Franklin? Aside from a key fumble in Cinci, he was pretty explosive and had an excellent outing. I think he could be a good piece moving forward.

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-I totally called Marc Sanchez. I have said - for years - that he was terrible.



-I said Russell Wilson was very bad.



-I said the Pats would win the 2007 SB.



-I said the Giants would win the 2011 SB AND ... predicted Tom Brady's stat line within 5 yards (kal actually called it "eerie")



-I have said - for like the last 6 years straight - that the Bills would finish in front of the Dolphins and/or Jets in the AFC East.



-I said both RGIII and Andrew Luck would be really good



-Although it predates these boards, I said Ryan Leaf would have a better NFL career than Peyton Manning. I guess time will tell on that one.



-Said that GB trading away Favre would NOT come back to haunt them and that they would be fine with Rodgers.



-Never ever believed in anything Tim Tebow was selling. Not once.


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-I said Ryan Wilson was very bad.

Who?

-Although it predates these boards, I said Ryan Leaf would have a better NFL career than Peyton Manning. I guess time will tell on that one.

:lol:

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Both you and Stego have always picked the Bills to do better than the Jets/Dolphins, pretty much ever since I've been on this board (6-7 years). It'd be uncanny if it weren't probably rooted in the fact that you guys hate those two teams while the Bills are so bad as to be unhateable.


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He did - but he had 14 1000-yard seasons in that time.

Ah, sorry about that. I misunderstood your point. Yes, fourteen 1,000 yard seasons is certainly impressive and, as you were alluding to, most NFL wide receivers would consider just playing in the league that long quite an accomplishment.

Megatron is actually averaging more yards per season over his first six and a half years than Rice did over his career but I still don't believe, as others have said, that Megatron will have Rice's longevity.

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You know, Ryan Wilson. He didn't do shit in the NFL.



Though it's Rockroi; he might have been talking about Brian Wilson. Rockroi was right about him too; he didn't do shit in the NFL either.



Also, I figured it out. Rockroi played scrabble and got stuck with a giant cache of E's. Chip Kelly goes to Chip Kelley. Drew Brees goes to Drew Breese. Eventually he'll get new letters and be stuck trying to spell the last name of the Oregon lineman


Andre Yruretagoyena. (and come on - everyone now wants him to be drafted on the Patriots and become a huge star)



Megatron is actually averaging more yards per season over his first six and a half years than Rice did over his career but I still don't believe, as others have said, that Megatron will have Rice's longevity.

That's true, but misleading. Rockroi's methodology of looking at the first 7 years of Rice's career is more illuminating; in that time Rice actually was averaging a full yard per catch more than Megatron.



In the 80s. When cornerbacks were not only legally allowed but legally required to carry handguns.


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Why would you say Harvin Marrison's name? Do you want to draw his attention or something?



Also, Kal, I don't know if the Scrabble E Theorem adequately explains the Rachede Caldwell Situation.


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Stupid Russell Wilson...



-I also oftentimes spell everyone's name wrong and get people's names wrong- not just Ryan Wilson but Marcus Russell, George Harrison and Muhammad Al-Shabazz Manning.



Back to Megatron



The gap in how I put the names together is in those unnamed receivers who started out on the same trajectory as a Carter, Brown, Owens, et and then after X years just imploded. That's sort of what Herman Moore shows- he was actually on a similar path right when injuries and "being a Detroit Lion" caught up with him. Sad, really.



I think that's where that next level of "tracking" is needed- wide receivers who mimicked the Megatron's trajectory and then- for whatever reason - fizzled.



What's also incredible is that if you look at Rice and Moss.... there is nobody who looked anything like that among even this "1% of NFL WR. Brown, Owens, even Steve Largent - NOBODY looked like them. And Megatron's numbers ... are close to those but definitely half-a-step back, especially from Rice (I found it shocking that Moss had such a relatively low Y/C and Y/G). Moss was a freak- his 7th season - 2004 was actually bad- he only played 13 games and would not have another really great season until 2007 with BRady (and that is an understatement). But before- 1998-2003 Moss averaged 1400 yards a season, 16 Y/r and 87.2 Y/G.... and 77 13 TDs... per season every season for 6 years. Fuck me....



BUt Rice's 6-year averages are even better than THAT - while total yards is off by appx 100 yards per season, his per game and per rec averages are even better. MEgatron's 6-year averages are REMARKABLY similar to Rice's .



Very quickly on Marvin Harrsion- his career after 7 years ALSO looks like Rice, Moss and Megatron 665 Rec, 8800 yards and 73 TDs. And what's really interesting is that HArrison predated MAnning so many of his stats in the early years are "meh" NBut for the "Manning YEars" he was unreal AND - much like Rice and Moss- had many good years a head of him -he had 1000 yards rec in each of his next 4 seasons (but truthfully nothing close to his 143 for 1722 season).



We also never touched upon the "QB issue" namely that the WR in question REALLY needs a good QB to throw to him for that career-time and that QB cannot degrade nor have injuries during that time.



But ONE thing has come clear- JOhnson has many many years of productivity left - and if he has a career similar to Rice and MOss there is a good chance his best years are ahead of him. While that may be a tall order because he JUST had a 1900+ yard season.... its not out of the question. The main thing is that he shows every sign of staying competitive and productive well into his 30s and if he dies that AND he and Stafford stay healthy, the guy is going to track into the Top 5 or Top 3.


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Can we also be clear that Megatron has been really really unlucky with QBs?



He came into the league in 2007 and this was his starting QBs for the first 4 years.



2007: Jon Kitna


2008: Orlovsky, Culpepper, Kitna


2009: Stafford, Culpepper, Stanton


2010: Hill, Stafford, Stanton



The first 4 years of his career, he had on average, 3 different starting QBs per season, some horrible, and he was also the only weapon on that team during that time.



When Stafford was finally healthy for 16 games in 2011-2013, he went from averaging 75 ypg to 115 ypg.



I get that Rice and Moss are the gold standard. I agree with that. But just comparing stats tells part of the story. It ignores the fact that Rice played with 2 HOF QBs for the first 15 years of his career, one who's arguably the best who ever played. Rice is a stud, 100% and will likely always be the best WR of all time, especially given the time he played, but Megatron is not far behind in ability and when he started getting some consistency at QB, he became utterly dominant. There isn't a WR that I've ever watched who has consistently beaten triple teams as much as Megatron. The only one close that I remember is Moss.



If Megatron can play at a high level well into his 30s, he'll put up some ridiculous numbers and while they might not reach Rice's level, they will put him in the conversation of Top 3 all time.


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I think that's where that next level of "tracking" is needed- wide receivers who mimicked the Megatron's trajectory and then- for whatever reason - fizzled.

Very quickly on Marvin Harrsion- his career after 7 years ALSO looks like Rice, Moss and Megatron 665 Rec, 8800 yards and 73 TDs. And what's really interesting is that HArrison predated MAnning so many of his stats in the early years are "meh" NBut for the "Manning YEars" he was unreal AND - much like Rice and Moss- had many good years a head of him -he had 1000 yards rec in each of his next 4 seasons (but truthfully nothing close to his 143 for 1722 season).

But ONE thing has come clear- JOhnson has many many years of productivity left - and if he has a career similar to Rice and MOss there is a good chance his best years are ahead of him. While that may be a tall order because he JUST had a 1900+ yard season.... its not out of the question. The main thing is that he shows every sign of staying competitive and productive well into his 30s and if he dies that AND he and Stafford stay healthy, the guy is going to track into the Top 5 or Top 3.

Might you say those WR's...frizz-geralded? Oh, my combination of sports interest, ladyparts, and prescription painkillers make me so adorably punny!

I'm glad you brought up ole' Marv (it's cool for me to call him that, 'cause on accounts o' bein' a fan o' his team I knows him personal likes) he was the most consistent WR of the early/mid 2000's and set the standard for #1 WR's. He's also my personal favorite player of all my time (followed by Reggie Wayne, Kurt Warner, Edgerrin James, Peyton Manning, Ed Reed, and Jeff Saturday) because he was just GOOD. He did his job, then went home and was a gangster (a real gangster, like Chalky White (is that racist?)). Also, he went to Syracuse which is where Adam Sandler's character in 'Big Daddy' went to lawschool.

On a more serious note, I started watching the Colts with my dad every Sunday in 2002. The first game of the season, Marvin caught 4 passes for 34 yards and 1 TD. I remember asking if he was any good and my dad looked at me and said "eh, I think he's pretty good." Marvin Harrison would then go on to catch 143 passes (shattering the previous record of 123 which is now shared #2 between Herman Moore and Wes Welker) for 1722 yards and 11 touchdowns. That's NINE catches a game, NINE! Let that sink in...

Marvin was incredible, and though he lacked the physicality of Randy Moss, T.O., or Megatron, his highlights are even cooler because of his tenacity. In a period when the NFL and the WWE became infected with guys who wanted to prove they were the coolest/most important person on earth, Marvin was a professional.

This is not me debating anything about ranking WR's, I'm just high, bored, and I really like Marvin Harrison.

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Can we also be clear that Megatron has been really really unlucky with QBs?

The other factor is up until Reggie Bush this year, I think you can argue that Megatron has never played with a single above average offensive weapon, either in the passing game or the running game. Imagine what his stats would be if you had to put 8 men in the box ever or couldn't comfortably shade 3 different DBs his way?

Even outside two of the greatest QBs of all time, Jerry Rice played with a who's who list of 80's and 90's and early 2000's Probowlers on offense. (Again, that career).

Again, not to say Megatron will have a better career than Jerry Rice, because after all Rice was a pretty unanimous #1 greatest football player of all time, but just that what we're seeing from Megatron at his peak these last two years is very comparable to, and I would argue slightly more dominant than, Jerry Rice's best years. I don't think Rice, or any other receiver, could put up the numbers Megatron does with the attention he draws.

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