Jump to content

Who would win in an allout war between Westeros and the Free Cities?


Doc Tor Do

Recommended Posts

Hi guys, new member here ^_^

I realise this thread has already been done, but I was wondering what allies each side would have and how this would affect the outcome of the battle - which side (if any) would the Dothraki, Slaver's Bay, Yi Ti, Summer Isles, the various wildling and skagosi forces, Asshai .etc join?

If it ended up as a free-for-all between all the factions we know about (apart from "magical" ones), who do you think would end up as the victor?

Could the Seven Kingdoms or the Free Cities even manage to stay as united factions?


Link to comment
Share on other sites

To me the starting point would be to arrive at an accurate assessment of the comparative population numbers of the two areas.



There are nine Free Cities. I'm not in the camp that believes they all dwarf the cities of Westeros. I think that Braavos and Volantis are at around twice the size of King's Landing, but I believe that most of the others fall somewhere between Lannisport and Oldtown in size.



So if we give Volantis a population of 1 million, and Braavos 750,000, then the other seven would probably average around 250,000 in size. Meaning a total urban population of around 3.5 million. Now, unlike Westeros, I believe the rate of urbanisation in the Free Cities is quite high. For example, even if Braavos has 750,000 people, I don't believe that there are 20 times that many people living in its countryside. Instead, the bulk of the population seems to be inside the city, with food supply being generated by fishing, clamming, and imports. In other words, there is not a huge rural population to add to the 750,000 urbanites.



These are city states, with apparently very little political power over territories more than a hundred miles away from the city itself. Except for Volantis, which seems to still have some remnant of its imperial history left in its sphere of influence.



So this brings us back to the population question. If the Free Cities have a combined 3,5 million urban population, what is their total population size, including surrounding countryside under their direct control? I believe the answer is less than 10 million people. Certain less than 15 million.



In contrast, Westeros has an urban population of maybe 1.5 million (including large towns), but a total population around 40 million.



So about a 3-1 numerical advantage for Westeros.



That is the extent of my initial thoughts. The Free Cities have the technological advantage, but if you have a truly united Westeros then I think the Free Cities would be in for a hell of a fight. Especially if you can count on the wealth of the Lannisters, Redwynnes and Hightowers combined. Remember that Paxter Redwynne has more ships than the entire Thirteen of Qarth, or Tourmaline Brotherhood, of Guild of Spicers. Likely as many ships as the entire Braavosi navy.



And Tywin Lannister has uncountable millions in gold reserves. He basically makes money out of nothing in seemingly inexhaustible quantities. He is probably a match for the Iron Bank in his own right, in terms of wealth.


Link to comment
Share on other sites

Welcome to the forums :cheers:



If (part of) Essos is waging war against (part of) the Seven Kingdoms, it will probably be behind Dany. So they would have Dargons and win.



Now, I don't understand why would this happen at all.



Most people seem to believe that without Dragons Westeros would be able to deffend itself.


Link to comment
Share on other sites

Recall also that in the days after the Doom, Volantis - then the most powerful Free City by some margin - tried to enlist the Storm King's help in re-establishing a new Valyrian Empire over the territory that is now the Free Cities. I don't recall the details, but the attempt failed, I believe because the Targaryens opposed it.



Now, if the Storm King on his own can make a significant difference in the Free City sphere of influence, imagine what the entire Westeros, with 10 times the Storm King's numbers, could achieve.



Also, it depends on whose territory the fighting is taking place. The Free Cities don't have a hope in hell of conquering Westeros from North to South. But Westeros probably would struggle to conquer the Free Cities too. Although if they can take down Braavos first in some way, I believe the others would topple quite easily in the face of a concerted, united campaign by the entire Westeros.


Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm inclined to say the Free Cities would win. The Braavosi can build a warship in a single day and the Free Cities hire mercenary soldiers with more experience than the Westerosi soldiers. I don't really know though.

I am inclined to agree with you, but I don't think there is enough info on the Free cities imo. I guess it depends on the quality of the ships, but in naval terms Im guessing Braavos would trump whatever Westeros had to offer (Iron Fleet, Redwyne Fleet, Lannister/Royal Fleet which I think is still nonexistant). Maybe westeros could hire pirates again like Aurane Waters or Sallador though I doubt it'd help. Mercenaries are not trustworthy, they could betray when a higher price is offered I think.

To me the starting point would be to arrive at an accurate assessment of the comparative population numbers of the two areas.

There are nine Free Cities. I'm not in the camp that believes they all dwarf the cities of Westeros. I think that Braavos and Volantis are at around twice the size of King's Landing, but I believe that most of the others fall somewhere between Lannisport and Oldtown in size.

So if we give Volantis a population of 1 million, and Braavos 750,000, then the other seven would probably average around 250,000 in size. Meaning a total urban population of around 3.5 million. Now, unlike Westeros, I believe the rate of urbanisation in the Free Cities is quite high. For example, even if Braavos has 750,000 people, I don't believe that there are 20 times that many people living in its countryside. Instead, the bulk of the population seems to be inside the city, with food supply being generated by fishing, clamming, and imports. In other words, there is not a huge rural population to add to the 750,000 urbanites.

These are city states, with apparently very little political power over territories more than a hundred miles away from the city itself. Except for Volantis, which seems to still have some remnant of its imperial history left in its sphere of influence.

So this brings us back to the population question. If the Free Cities have a combined 3,5 million urban population, what is their total population size, including surrounding countryside under their direct control? I believe the answer is less than 10 million people. Certain less than 15 million.

In contrast, Westeros has an urban population of maybe 1.5 million (including large towns), but a total population around 40 million.

So about a 3-1 numerical advantage for Westeros.

That is the extent of my initial thoughts. The Free Cities have the technological advantage, but if you have a truly united Westeros then I think the Free Cities would be in for a hell of a fight. Especially if you can count on the wealth of the Lannisters, Redwynnes and Hightowers combined. Remember that Paxter Redwynne has more ships than the entire Thirteen of Qarth, or Tourmaline Brotherhood, of Guild of Spicers. Likely as many ships as the entire Braavosi navy.

And Tywin Lannister has uncountable millions in gold reserves. He basically makes money out of nothing in seemingly inexhaustible quantities. He is probably a match for the Iron Bank in his own right, in terms of wealth.

I like your reasoning! I don't think raw population matters so much, as a lot would be women/children/untrained. As for the techie advantage, wouldn't the Citadel be useful? (i think they had a hand in dragon-slaying as well iirc). Navally, I think teh Free Cities has the advantage, the Royal Fleet is heavily depleted, Paxter can only match Braavos at best, and the other free cities probably have many other large navies as well. Financially, I think the Iron Bank has more influence, solely on how much they are owed. Though I guess The Faith, Hightower and the Tyrells are probably very rich as well.

Welcome to the forums :cheers:

If (part of) Essos is waging war against (part of) the Seven Kingdoms, it will probably be behind Dany. So they would have Dargons and win.

Now, I don't understand why would this happen at all.

Most people seem to believe that without Dragons Westeros would be able to deffend itself.

Even with dragons, can't dragons be slain? If they couldn't, why write songs about brave knights taking down dragons? (I guess part of the point of ASOIAF is to show that said songs are nearly always false) I think the Citadel had a hand in slaying some dragons as well! I wonder what the FM would do in such a situation when Braavos enters such a war under Daenerys, didn't the FM hate Targaryens?

Recall also that in the days after the Doom, Volantis - then the most powerful Free City by some margin - tried to enlist the Storm King's help in re-establishing a new Valyrian Empire over the territory that is now the Free Cities. I don't recall the details, but the attempt failed, I believe because the Targaryens opposed it.

Now, if the Storm King on his own can make a significant difference in the Free City sphere of influence, imagine what the entire Westeros, with 10 times the Storm King's numbers, could achieve.

Also, it depends on whose territory the fighting is taking place. The Free Cities don't have a hope in hell of conquering Westeros from North to South. But Westeros probably would struggle to conquer the Free Cities too. Although if they can take down Braavos first in some way, I believe the others would topple quite easily in the face of a concerted, united campaign by the entire Westeros.

I agree! Wouldn't Westeros find it a bit difficult getting through the Dothraki Sea, having to fight off all the tribes (unless they paid them off)? Tbh I don't think either side could hold an alliance for long enough and would both split apart like the Soviet Union :P

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm not sure what they would fight all-out for. The right of fishing in the narrow sea?

Fish is good for you! I think there was a minor fishing dispute between India and China which nearly escalated xD

I think I just wanted to know who would be victorious if utter chaos spread throughout the known realms. I know the situation in the books atm is pretty chaotic, I can't help but feel a tad underwhelmed (I think I read too much Malazan and am expecting too many battles xD)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The main problem with this idea is that the Free cities would never work together as an organised force, and the Iron throne wouldn't go to war with the free cities.


But this is a what if question, so we have to suspend all of that and look at the statistics. Since the dragons are dead, air-travel is not invented, and the 2 continents are not connected the only way for one to attack the other is through ships. This is a problem for Westeros, even with the Iron fleet, royal fleet, and Redwyne fleet they would still be easily outmatched by Braavos; which has the most powerful navy in the world.


This means that it is incredibly difficult for the seven Kingdoms to attack the free cities, and means that the free cities can raid the shores of westeros with impunity.


The next thing to consider is ground forces. Neither the free cities or Westeros have much of a standing army, but they are both capable of raising vast armies. In Westeros through lords and knights and their men-at-arms and peasants who come because they are called, the free cities use free companies or slave soldiers.


This presents a problem for the free cities, they rely too much on mercenaries, and there is enough wealth in westeros to ensure that mercenaries fight for them as well, whereas the feudal westerosi society will ensure that few knights will fight for the other side. "A man who fights for coin is loyal only to his purse" and wouldn't run away when defeat seems likely.


The free cities would likely have support from slavers bay, as if they were to lose, and be conquered by, or economically ruined by westeros, the demand for slaves would decrease drastically.


In conclusion i don't think either side would have the strength to win decisively, and neither could ever conquer the other, although i think that the free cities would do more damage, as they have the naval power to attack westeros.


Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am inclined to agree with you, but I don't think there is enough info on the Free cities imo. I guess it depends on the quality of the ships, but in naval terms Im guessing Braavos would trump whatever Westeros had to offer (Iron Fleet, Redwyne Fleet, Lannister/Royal Fleet which I think is still nonexistant). Maybe westeros could hire pirates again like Aurane Waters or Sallador though I doubt it'd help. Mercenaries are not trustworthy, they could betray when a higher price is offered I think.

I like your reasoning! I don't think raw population matters so much, as a lot would be women/children/untrained. As for the techie advantage, wouldn't the Citadel be useful? (i think they had a hand in dragon-slaying as well iirc). Navally, I think teh Free Cities has the advantage, the Royal Fleet is heavily depleted, Paxter can only match Braavos at best, and the other free cities probably have many other large navies as well. Financially, I think the Iron Bank has more influence, solely on how much they are owed. Though I guess The Faith, Hightower and the Tyrells are probably very rich as well.

Even with dragons, can't dragons be slain? If they couldn't, why write songs about brave knights taking down dragons? (I guess part of the point of ASOIAF is to show that said songs are nearly always false) I think the Citadel had a hand in slaying some dragons as well! I wonder what the FM would do in such a situation when Braavos enters such a war under Daenerys, didn't the FM hate Targaryens?

I agree! Wouldn't Westeros find it a bit difficult getting through the Dothraki Sea, having to fight off all the tribes (unless they paid them off)? Tbh I don't think either side could hold an alliance for long enough and would both split apart like the Soviet Union :P

I don't see the need to go through the Dothraki Sea at all? We are only talking about the Nine Free Cities. Not the entire Essos.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The main problem with this idea is that the Free cities would never work together as an organised force, and the Iron throne wouldn't go to war with the free cities.

But this is a what if question, so we have to suspend all of that and look at the statistics. Since the dragons are dead, air-travel is not invented, and the 2 continents are not connected the only way for one to attack the other is through ships. This is a problem for Westeros, even with the Iron fleet, royal fleet, and Redwyne fleet they would still be easily outmatched by Braavos; which has the most powerful navy in the world.

This means that it is incredibly difficult for the seven Kingdoms to attack the free cities, and means that the free cities can raid the shores of westeros with impunity.

The next thing to consider is ground forces. Neither the free cities or Westeros have much of a standing army, but they are both capable of raising vast armies. In Westeros through lords and knights and their men-at-arms and peasants who come because they are called, the free cities use free companies or slave soldiers.

This presents a problem for the free cities, they rely too much on mercenaries, and there is enough wealth in westeros to ensure that mercenaries fight for them as well, whereas the feudal westerosi society will ensure that few knights will fight for the other side. "A man who fights for coin is loyal only to his purse" and wouldn't run away when defeat seems likely.

The free cities would likely have support from slavers bay, as if they were to lose, and be conquered by, or economically ruined by westeros, the demand for slaves would decrease drastically.

In conclusion i don't think either side would have the strength to win decisively, and neither could ever conquer the other, although i think that the free cities would do more damage, as they have the naval power to attack westeros.

Very true.

Although, if we are talking about a hypothetical united Westeros with all its resources dedicated to the campaign, well, I can see the naval inferiority being addressed fairly quickly. Wyman Manderly built 50 warships in a year, in total secrecy.

Throw in all of Tywin Lannister's gold and the Hightowers and Redwynnes resources as well, and Westeros could build a navy of thousands of ships in no time. And that's excluding the naval strength of the Ironborn.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The main problem with this idea is that the Free cities would never work together as an organised force, and the Iron throne wouldn't go to war with the free cities.

But this is a what if question, so we have to suspend all of that and look at the statistics. Since the dragons are dead, air-travel is not invented, and the 2 continents are not connected the only way for one to attack the other is through ships. This is a problem for Westeros, even with the Iron fleet, royal fleet, and Redwyne fleet they would still be easily outmatched by Braavos; which has the most powerful navy in the world.

This means that it is incredibly difficult for the seven Kingdoms to attack the free cities, and means that the free cities can raid the shores of westeros with impunity.

The next thing to consider is ground forces. Neither the free cities or Westeros have much of a standing army, but they are both capable of raising vast armies. In Westeros through lords and knights and their men-at-arms and peasants who come because they are called, the free cities use free companies or slave soldiers.

This presents a problem for the free cities, they rely too much on mercenaries, and there is enough wealth in westeros to ensure that mercenaries fight for them as well, whereas the feudal westerosi society will ensure that few knights will fight for the other side. "A man who fights for coin is loyal only to his purse" and wouldn't run away when defeat seems likely.

The free cities would likely have support from slavers bay, as if they were to lose, and be conquered by, or economically ruined by westeros, the demand for slaves would decrease drastically.

In conclusion i don't think either side would have the strength to win decisively, and neither could ever conquer the other, although i think that the free cities would do more damage, as they have the naval power to attack westeros.

Hehe I'm a sucker for hypothetical situations ^_^ Even if they had dragons, I doubt theyd be able to carry more than 10~15 people at a time. The question wasn't well thought out, I'll give you that xD I have to stop before I do a Wildlings vs Dothraki thread :O

I don't see the need to go through the Dothraki Sea at all? We are only talking about the Nine Free Cities. Not the entire Essos.

True, but wouldn't the Dothraki want to get a piece of the action? Since the Free Cities have paid them off many times, the Dothraki might be inclined to harass "the men in iron suits".

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Very true.

Although, if we are talking about a hypothetical united Westeros with all its resources dedicated to the campaign, well, I can see the naval inferiority being addressed fairly quickly. Wyman Manderly built 50 warships in a year, in total secrecy.

Throw in all of Tywin Lannister's gold and the Hightowers and Redwynnes resources as well, and Westeros could build a navy of thousands of ships in no time. And that's excluding the naval strength of the Ironborn.

Still, a warship a day for Braavos is 365 a year, and thats not including the other free cities! Manderly is relatively rich (I think?) and there aren't that many lords around his wealth (I think?) so even with the few billionaires, it would be quite a challenge

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...