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What if the boar ran away and Robert learned the truth?


LordPathera

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I expect Cersei would have fled with her children once she realized her plot to kill Robert had failed. But if she didn't flee, she would have been dead. Robert would have killed her in a rage, and probably the kids too. Then there would have been war. The Lannisters would have been pretty much alone, so Jaime's head would be on a spike before very long, though he might get some revenge by killing Edmure first. Tywin might have survived if he'd played his hand right and disowned his twins, but if he wasn't willing to do that, the Rock would have been besieged until it fell and he'd be a dead man too. Tyrion is clever enough that he'd probably escape.



If Ned managed to convince Robert to show mercy, then he might have allowed Jaime, Joffrey, and Tommen to take the black. But Cersei's only chance of survival was to run.


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Cercei's goose would have been cooked. Tywin would have sought allies or atleast felt out the situation. The "miraculous" assasination of Robert is so full of plot armor for Cersei and her incestuous userpation of the throne for her "offspring" it is almost rediculous.


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Heads, spikes, walls. Jaime, Cersei, Joffrey for sure, Tywin, Tyrion, Kevan, Myrcella and Tommen most likely, otherwise they'd have to take the Black (or Grey for Myrcella).



Margaery for Queen. Or maybe Robert would say "enough" and give up the throne, for Ned or Stannis, or a Great Council.






Being nice doesn't get you off punishments. If Joffrey was executed because he was born of incest, Tommen and Myrcella would be as well. And if Tommen and Myrcella aren't killed for being born of incest, Joffrey won't be. Joffrey also hadn't done anything worth of a death sentence before Robert died.




Mycah, Lady, the trouble with Ned. Robert would blame him for it.





I do not know, how Tywin would have reacted to all of this. During the books he seemed to have completely denied the truth of Joffrey's parentage, so he probably would have believed his daughter the victim of some slander. I do not know, whether he would have gone to war, since he basically had no allies in Westeros and he would not have been able to win a war against the Crownlands, Stormlands, Riverlands, North, Vale and the Reach with only sellswords.




That's exactly the situation where he went to war. That everything would work itself out was not to be expected when he invaded the Riverlands.



Tywin isn't what you'd call rational when he feels insulted.


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My guess is:



Cersei and Jaime would be executed. This would lead to a very unhappy Tywin, and since the crown is in debt to the Lannisters, well... strip them of their titles and lands, safe perhaps Casterly Rock itself (from noble to knightly house), confiscate their treasures for the crown and instate another Western house in their stead perhaps? I can't see anyone keeping status quo, just minus the twins.



The three children would be sent to wherever the other Lannisters go, or if they could keep the Rock, then that's where.



My hunch is he would name on of his bastards heir over Stannis, just because. Perhaps Gendry, since that is the one Ned found out about, and he is male and almost of age already. Though I guess one of his more noble bastards would be more likely.



So far for the plan, but I guess the Lannisters would not simply lay down and let it happen, so a war, assassination attempts, and all the good stuff would most likely go on anyways.


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1. Cersei and Jaime would be executed.


2. Joffrey and Tommen sent to the Wall, Myrcella - to the Silent systers.


3. All Lannisters would be stripped of their lands, people, and titles.


4. All the Lannisters would be forbidden to keep any honorable position for 100 years or something.


5. Robert would search for a new wife, in the hope to produce a new heir.


6. Varys and/or Littlefinger would search for a suitable candidate for Robert's wife, to manipulate him.


7. Lannisters' castles and lands would be granted to a relatives (brother, uncle) of Robert's new wife.


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Heads, spikes, walls. Jaime, Cersei, Joffrey for sure, Tywin, Tyrion, Kevan, Myrcella and Tommen most likely, otherwise they'd have to take the Black (or Grey for Myrcella).

Margaery for Queen. Or maybe Robert would say "enough" and give up the throne, for Ned or Stannis, or a Great Council.

Mycah, Lady, the trouble with Ned. Robert would blame him for it.

That's exactly the situation where he went to war. That everything would work itself out was not to be expected when he invaded the Riverlands.

Tywin isn't what you'd call rational when he feels insulted.

I do agree, that the odds were not good for Tywin, when he attacked the Riverlands, but IMO in this scenario there are two big differences, which would make it near impossible to win the war, had Robert survived:

-instead of three different fractions (North+Riverlands, Stannis, Stormlands+the Reach) the different regions would likely work together, since Robert is still alive and therefore the brothers would not squabble over who would become king

-if Robert had married Margaery (which would have been the only logical solution, since he needed new heirs and the power of the Reach) the Reach would have been involved nearly from the start in the war and not only later

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I do agree, that the odds were not good for Tywin, when he attacked the Riverlands, but IMO in this scenario there are two big differences, which would make it near impossible to win the war, had Robert survived:

-instead of three different fractions (North+Riverlands, Stannis, Stormlands+the Reach) the different regions would likely work together, since Robert is still alive and therefore the brothers would not squabble over who would become king

-if Robert had married Margaery (which would have been the only logical solution, since he needed new heirs and the power of the Reach) the Reach would have been involved nearly from the start in the war and not only later

When Tywin first attacked the Riverlands, Robert was very much alive and Ned Stark very much the Hand of the King.

Even after Robert's death, the winning coalition of Robert's Rebellion was expected to stick together, just with the Stormlands exchanged for the Iron Islands and the Vale and the Riverlands united compared to RR - which would have been even worse for lonely Tywin since the Ironborn could attack the Westerlands undefended coast.

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Robert would have slain every Lannister he could find! To paraphrase "His will be the FURY!" Period.

Think about it. Robert probably blames Cersei for how much he hates being King. I know Robert wouldn't have been all that interested in the tedium of ruling, but Cersei made his life a living hell like only a loveless marriage can do. Then the thought that the great Robert Baratheon was cuckolded by the KingSlayer might be worse for his reputation than if he was actually slain by Jaime? All the kids will be killed as they would be a threat to any trueborn heirs Robert may have afterwards and would be walking/talking symbols of his shame. Robert wouldn't believe or wouldn't trust that Tywin didn't know or wouldn't rise in rebellion sooner or later.

You have to think, Robert is a new King establishing new dynasty. A scandal like this might ruin his ability to rule as men will see him as weak and foolish and having no true born heirs to continue the fledgling dynasty.

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My hunch is he would name on of his bastards heir over Stannis, just because. Perhaps Gendry, since that is the one Ned found out about, and he is male and almost of age already. Though I guess one of his more noble bastards would be more likely.

Edric Storm, since he's noble on both sides and had been fostered at Storm's End. Unless Robert did marry Margaery and sire a son with her ...

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What if the boar didn't kill Robert?

Varys seems to have a list of good ideas about what might go wrong in Ned's last chapter:

Ned Stark laid his head back against the damp stone wall and closed his eyes. His leg was throbbing. “The king’s wine... did you question Lancel?”

“Oh, indeed. Cersei gave him the wineskins, and told him it was Robert’s favorite vintage.” The eunuch shrugged. “A hunter lives a perilous life. If the boar had not done for Robert, it would have been a fall from a horse, the bite of a wood adder, an arrow gone astray... the forest is the abbatoir of the gods. It was not wine that killed the king. It was your mercy.”

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Varys seems to have a list of good ideas about what might go wrong in Ned's last chapter:

Ned Stark laid his head back against the damp stone wall and closed his eyes. His leg was throbbing. “The king’s wine... did you question Lancel?”

“Oh, indeed. Cersei gave him the wineskins, and told him it was Robert’s favorite vintage.” The eunuch shrugged. “A hunter lives a perilous life. If the boar had not done for Robert, it would have been a fall from a horse, the bite of a wood adder, an arrow gone astray... the forest is the abbatoir of the gods. It was not wine that killed the king. It was your mercy.”

Varys lies, or rather let Ned come to the wrong conclusions intentionally. There isn't a single clue that Cersei had anything else prepared - and good reasons against it. Lancel was her only tool.

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Someone (either Varys or LF) mentioned that had it not been a boar, it'd have been a stray arrow, or a horse mishap, or anything else. Robert was not coming out of those woods alive. Now, if Renly or someone else realized what Lancel was doing then we have a very intersting scenario playing out. That's the only way I can see Robert finding out about any deception.


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Varys lies, or rather let Ned come to the wrong conclusions intentionally. There isn't a single clue that Cersei had anything else prepared - and good reasons against it. Lancel was her only tool.

Someone (either Varys or LF) mentioned that had it not been a boar, it'd have been a stray arrow, or a horse mishap, or anything else. Robert was not coming out of those woods alive. Now, if Renly or someone else realized what Lancel was doing then we have a very intersting scenario playing out. That's the only way I can see Robert finding out about any deception.

It's not like this is a novel concept or anything, we have Randyll Tarly planning a hunting accident as well. Lancel might have had more tricks up his sleeve, like the stray arrow, we can't really make the assumption here that Varys is just lying, there could very well be some truth to this.

And, if all else fails Cercei always had the one invincible "get-out-of-jail-card" - Jaime will kill him. :bang:

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It's not like this is a novel concept or anything, we have Randyll Tarly planning a hunting accident as well. Lancel might have had more tricks up his sleeve, like the stray arrow, we can't really make the assumption here that Varys is just lying, there could very well be some truth to this.

And, if all else fails Cercei always had the one invincible "get-out-of-jail-card" - Jaime will kill him. :bang:

Cersei never plans contingencies - that's the one feature all of her plans share. Lancel doesn't mention any tricks he had up his sleeve - would have been difficult as well as a teenage squire.

Varys had an agenda and wanted to influence Ned into a certain decision. Taking anything he says for the utter truth is at least careless. Furthermore, he is oddly unspecific. Not "Lannister stooge XY was waiting in an ambush with a bow", but "woods are dangerous, something could have happen".

And Jaime was hundreds of miles away, with hundreds and thousands of armed men between him and Robert.

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I am unsure if the other ways of killing Robert would have worked. He was surrounded by people like Renly and Bronze Yohn. They aren't security against unknown drugging, but they'd be pretty good at noticing/ stopping Lancel from other more direct means.

Are we to assume the forest was alive with assassins that day? Seems a stretch.

Otoh, death by boar is hardly foolproof, so if GRRM wants Robert dead, he's dead.

I think people have pretty much nailed the sequence of events. I think Cersei, Jaime dead or fled. The kids...could go either way. Dead or sent off on disgrace. Margery new wife. Renly probably eventually replaces Ned as Hand, reflecting his connections with new power family, his superior political skill, and Ned's desire to be at home.

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Cersei never plans contingencies - that's the one feature all of her plans share. Lancel doesn't mention any tricks he had up his sleeve - would have been difficult as well as a teenage squire.

Varys had an agenda and wanted to influence Ned into a certain decision. Taking anything he says for the utter truth is at least careless. Furthermore, he is oddly unspecific. Not "Lannister stooge XY was waiting in an ambush with a bow", but "woods are dangerous, something could have happen".

And Jaime was hundreds of miles away, with hundreds and thousands of armed men between him and Robert.

Lancel was instructed to juice Robert up on the sauce as heavily as possible. I'm sure if Lancel failed, he'd have at least tried to do somethig else. I'm sure his instructions were clear: make sure Robert dies. And what incentive would Varys have to lie to Eddard about this piece of information? Robert was already dead, and they were already sure Cersei was to blame.

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Lancel was instructed to juice Robert up on the sauce as heavily as possible. I'm sure if Lancel failed, he'd have at least tried to do somethig else. I'm sure his instructions were clear: make sure Robert dies. And what incentive would Varys have to lie to Eddard about this piece of information? Robert was already dead, and they were already sure Cersei was to blame.

And what could this teenager reasonably do? Stab Robert standing between Ser Barristan Selmy and Bronze Yohn Royce?

Varys wanted the Ned to delay the war.

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