What if the boar ran away and Robert learned the truth?

[Iona]

Cersei never plans contingencies - that's the one feature all of her plans share. Lancel doesn't mention any tricks he had up his sleeve - would have been difficult as well as a teenage squire.

Varys had an agenda and wanted to influence Ned into a certain decision. Taking anything he says for the utter truth is at least careless. Furthermore, he is oddly unspecific. Not "Lannister stooge XY was waiting in an ambush with a bow", but "woods are dangerous, something could have happen".

And Jaime was hundreds of miles away, with hundreds and thousands of armed men between him and Robert.

I'm sure no-one on this forum takes anything Varys says for utter truth, and since when has anything Varys says been anything else but oddly unspecific.

I was originally making a point that we do have at least one character that has somekind of an explanation to offer as to what could have happened if plan boar failed.

Jamie-card was an intented flip-off to Cercei and her ability to plan ahead, I thought the head-banging emoticon made sure the point would be taken, but it seems my plans are just as water-proof as Cercei's. :P

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Then I misunderstood you. My bad.

[Winter's Knight]

Jaime wouldn't have died because Jaime wasn't in KL.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Jaime wouldn't have died because Jaime wasn't in KL.

Neither was he at the other end of the world. And Robert had good cause to hunt him down.

[complexphoenix]

Those of you who are blithely saying that Jaime would have been executed - please remember that he was not in KL when this stuff went down. After his confrontation with Ned in the street that led to the death of Jory and the breaking of Ned's leg, Jaime left the city for Casterly Rock, planning to join in whatever plan his father had to get Tyrion back.

If Jaime, sitting at the Golden Tooth with his army, had received news that Cersei and the children had been killed by the king, I expect he would have gone mad with grief and immediately moved his army into the field to kill everyone who had even the smallest thing to do with it. Edmure would have been killed rather than captured and Jaime would have destroyed everything in his path as he moved toward KL in hopes of avenging Cersei. The North takes too long to mobilize so they wouldn't have arrived in time. Robert would have needed to muster the Crownlords and Stormlords in a hurry to have a hope of stopping Jaime in the field. Even then, Jaime's speed advantage from being already mustered might have allowed him to take KL.

If Robert died at that point, shit would get really nasty really fast. Renly and Stannis would have contested the succession, you'd have the North coming down, and soon there would be all-out civil war whose course would be hard to predict. If Robert didn't die, but fled to Dragonstone with Ned to regroup, I expect he would have had enough time to pull together the North, Riverlands, Crownlands, Stormlands and Reach to dispose of the Lannisters and retake his throne.

[Glenn of House Patrick]

And what could this teenager reasonably do? Stab Robert standing between Ser Barristan Selmy and Bronze Yohn Royce?

Varys wanted the Ned to delay the war.

Not saying Lancel would have succeeded, nor am I saying that had he successfully killed him he'd have gotten away with it. Varys had a point with what he said, whether you care to admit it or not.

[James Arryn]

Those of you who are blithely saying that Jaime would have been executed - please remember that he was not in KL when this stuff went down. After his confrontation with Ned in the street that led to the death of Jory and the breaking of Ned's leg, Jaime left the city for Casterly Rock, planning to join in whatever plan his father had to get Tyrion back.

If Jaime, sitting at the Golden Tooth with his army, had received news that Cersei and the children had been killed by the king, I expect he would have gone mad with grief and immediately moved his army into the field to kill everyone who had even the smallest thing to do with it. Edmure would have been killed rather than captured and Jaime would have destroyed everything in his path as he moved toward KL in hopes of avenging Cersei. The North takes too long to mobilize so they wouldn't have arrived in time. Robert would have needed to muster the Crownlords and Stormlords in a hurry to have a hope of stopping Jaime in the field. Even then, Jaime's speed advantage from being already mustered might have allowed him to take KL.

If Robert died at that point, shit would get really nasty really fast. Renly and Stannis would have contested the succession, you'd have the North coming down, and soon there would be all-out civil war whose course would be hard to predict. If Robert didn't die, but fled to Dragonstone with Ned to regroup, I expect he would have had enough time to pull together the North, Riverlands, Crownlands, Stormlands and Reach to dispose of the Lannisters and retake his throne.

Uh, you'd better believe in that situation the Vale would be coming down hard, in that the twincest becoming public knowledge would be confirmation that the Lannisters murdered their beloved Lord.

I don't get why Jaime would have the time to mobilize, conquer the RL and cross the continent before the CL, SL, Vale and North would have time to mobilize.

Additionally, either by Robert's direction or just out of opportunism, the Reach marches north through the undefended Westerlands in your scenario. Guaranteed.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Not saying Lancel would have succeeded, nor am I saying that had he successfully killed him he'd have gotten away with it. Varys had a point with what he said, whether you care to admit it or not.

Sort of a point. It wasn't a reasonable threat.

[bebeber]

Did Ned not give Cersei the chance to flee with the children before he told Robert?

Is there any reason why that offer wouldn't stand?

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Did Ned not give Cersei the chance to flee with the children before he told Robert?

Is there any reason why that offer wouldn't stand?

Ned offered. If she ran before Robert returned.

[EstEst]

Jaime wouldn't have died because Jaime wasn't in KL.

Those of you who are blithely saying that Jaime would have been executed - please remember that he was not in KL when this stuff went down. After his confrontation with Ned in the street that led to the death of Jory and the breaking of Ned's leg, Jaime left the city for Casterly Rock, planning to join in whatever plan his father had to get Tyrion back. <snip>

Thank you both, you're right of course, I didn't think of that. This would change a lot.

[complexphoenix]

Uh, you'd better believe in that situation the Vale would be coming down hard, in that the twincest becoming public knowledge would be confirmation that the Lannisters murdered their beloved Lord.

I don't get why Jaime would have the time to mobilize, conquer the RL and cross the continent before the CL, SL, Vale and North would have time to mobilize.

Additionally, either by Robert's direction or just out of opportunism, the Reach marches north through the undefended Westerlands in your scenario. Guaranteed.

Jaime was already mobilized at the time Robert died in the books. His army was sitting at the Golden Tooth, all pumped and ready to go, facing down Edmure's host on the other side of the pass. After Robert died, Jaime attacked and defeated Edmure, and he and Tywin conquered most of the RL before the North arrived. In the book they stayed in the RL, Jaime besieging Riverrun while Tywin cut through the rest; in this scenario Jaime would march on KL as quickly as he could via the River Road. Tywin might or might not be joining him via the Gold Road, depending on how his grief and pride balanced against his calculating realism and desire to not be completely destroyed.

You're right about the Reach attacking the Westerlands. But although Tywin would care, Jaime would not. Remember, Jaime is not a man who likes to think, he's a man who likes to kill. And in the severe emotional state he'd be in after hearing of his beloved Cersei's death, his only thought would be of vengeance.

[bebeber]

Ned offered. If she ran before Robert returned.

Would she not find out the plan to kill him failed before he arrived back?

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Jaime was already mobilized at the time Robert died in the books. His army was sitting at the Golden Tooth, all pumped and ready to go, facing down Edmure's host on the other side of the pass. After Robert died, Jaime attacked and defeated Edmure, and he and Tywin conquered most of the RL before the North arrived. In the book they stayed in the RL, Jaime besieging Riverrun while Tywin cut through the rest; in this scenario Jaime would march on KL as quickly as he could via the River Road. Tywin might or might not be joining him via the Gold Road, depending on how his grief and pride balanced against his calculating realism and desire to not be completely destroyed.

You're right about the Reach attacking the Westerlands. But although Tywin would care, Jaime would not. Remember, Jaime is not a man who likes to think, he's a man who likes to kill. And in the severe emotional state he'd be in after hearing of his beloved Cersei's death, his only thought would be of vengeance.

Maybe Jaime would successfully attack KL. Maybe he even killed Robert. Wouldn't matter in the long run, because everybody would dogpile the Westerlands and kill everybody involved.

And his men would be less likely to stick around for that.

Would she not find out the plan to kill him failed before he arrived back?

Maybe. But a couple of hours is cutting it awfully close, especially if she didn't even have a ship prepared to set sail at a moment's notice.

[complexphoenix]

If Cersei managed to escape, and Jaime got news at the Golden Tooth that she had fled, I expect he'd head to Lannisport to get a ship to go and join her. Tywin would be apoplectic, but Jaime doesn't care about the things his father cares about, he just wants to be with Cersei. So in this scenario, we probably avoid a war, because while Tywin would be really, really, really pissed off at his daughter being cast out with her children disinherited and his son attainted, he would probably be smart enough to see that he couldn't defeat Robert and would make his peace.

Once Jaime reached Cersei, he'd probably marry her and father some more children on her. That's what he secretly always wanted, after all.

[Petyr Patter]

I'm sure no-one on this forum takes anything Varys says for utter truth, and since when has anything Varys says been anything else but oddly unspecific.

I was originally making a point that we do have at least one character that has somekind of an explanation to offer as to what could have happened if plan boar failed.

I suspect the back up plans including a "Stray arrow" are real, only they belonged to Varys not Cersei. Varys is trying to create a Targaryan restoration, which is difficult to do with the popular Robert on the throne backed by his still popular alliance. So, Varys needed Robert dead and an unpopular monarch on the throne, enter Joffrey. What better time to kill a king when everyone, including Cersei, will think Cersei did it?

In contrast, if Robert learns and believes that Joffrey, Myrcella, and Tommen are bastards... then he would quickly eliminate the traitors, forge a new alliance with High Garden by wedding Margaery, and suddenly the throne is in an even stronger position. Even Dorne is less likely to join Aegon the Maybe's rebellion with the Lannister influence in court gone.

[complexphoenix]

I suspect the back up plans including a "Stray arrow" are real, only they belonged to Varys not Cersei. Varys is trying to create a Targaryan restoration, which is difficult to do with the popular Robert on the throne backed by his still popular alliance. So, Varys needed Robert dead and an unpopular monarch on the throne, enter Joffrey. What better time to kill a king when everyone, including Cersei, will think Cersei did it?

In contrast, if Robert learns and believes that Joffrey, Myrcella, and Tommen are bastards... then he would quickly eliminate the traitors, forge a new alliance with High Garden by wedding Margaery, and suddenly the throne is in an even stronger position. Even Dorne is less likely to join Aegon the Maybe's rebellion with the Lannister influence in court gone.

True. Varys didn't want all-out war to break out until the Targs were ready, but he would want to ensure that the crown was in a weak enough position that he could trigger the necessary war when the time was right.

[Jasta11]

I doubt if Robert would differentiate. He'd view all three of them as abominations.

Joffrey would die as Bob hates him, Tommen and Myrcella I'm not certain. I know Ned thinks so, but I'm not certain Robert would want children dead (unless they were Targaryen, a special case, and even then he only went after Viserys/Dany once the latter was pregnant). In the heat of the moment, certainly, but after cooling off I'm positive Ned would have been able to rein him in. While I don't have a high opinion of old Bob, I don't think he's a child killing monster.

Apart from that; heads, spikes, walls, and lots and lots of other lives are saved. Renly probably convinces Robert to marry Marge (who's probably going to be watched closely too, I wouldn't envy her) and business continues as usual until Varys cooks up something to render the 7 kingdoms unstable I'd wager. Tywin would be furious, but there's little he can do against a united Westeros.

[Light a wight tonight]

After killing Cersei Robert repudiates the debt to the Lannisters and demands that Tywin and Jaime report to KL. He might be angry enough to do an Aerys and roast one while strangling the other if the obey. If they don't he declares them traitors and sends an army to seize them. An army with a big Dornish contingent led by Oberyn.

After settling Tywin and Jaime he sets Tyrion up as lord of Casterly Rock.

[James Arryn]

If the Lannisters full out rebelled and their lords went along, I could see Stannis, Renly or Garlan Tyrell set up as head of the new House of Casterly Rock afterwards.