Stannis's huge victory at the wall.

[Nyrhex]

My objection the overrating of this victory is not that the wildlings were pushovers.

It's that by far and away the decisive factor was timing. Which was, unless I've missed something, completely a matter of chance. The wildlings were hit in an exposed flank when they were committed to the front.

GRRM has a lot of these, by the way. The Hammer and Anvil, ok. An unexpected flank attack saves a seemingly doomed but determined defence, arriving at just the right moment, leading to a rout.

But then at the Blackwater, a determined but apparently doomed defence is saved at the last second by...an unexpected flank attack by a third party. Completely uncoordinated with the defending army, and arriving by sheer chance at an opportune moment, leading to a rout.

GRRM is doing the same thing again in Mereen, where Barristan leads a sally he considers doomed, but which is, from what we hear last, saved because of an unexpected attack from the harbour by the completely uncoordinated IB landing, catching the enemy in an exposed flank and...well, we don't know if it's a rout yet.

Seeing a pattern?

Now as far as I understand it, Stannis' plan was land in the East. Head west along the Wall.

That's it, right? There was no coordination with the NW, no waiting for a day or so to pounce at the right moment. It just happens, completely by chance, at the right moment. And the wildlings try and mount a resistance but pretty quickly rout. Except for the giants.

As always, Stannis' men fight hard and fight well. Sign of a solid commander with solid subordinates. And his unit commanders show initiative in Cromwelling the giants. But nothing that Stannis does or about the attack is remarkable except the timing. It's pretty standard fare.

If you appear unexpectedly and hit an army hard enough in the flank, especially one conducting a siege, it will rout. That's pretty basic. And again, the essence of Stannis achieving that tactical surprise was, so farvascwe know, complete chance. His superior armament and training would help, but honestly I would expect a 7K army to route almost as quickly under similar circumstances.

Or did I miss something? It's pretty much exactly what Tywin/Garlan did to Stannis, except that at least required the coordination of 2 armies. This was 1, heading West.

Nothing remarkable except GRRM's go-to perfect timing by chance. Nothing Stannis has ever done as a commander has impressed me, strategically or tactically. He has very solid command and control, he seems to drill very well and his troops have excellent discipline and fight hard. All good stuff. But also pretty standard. He's no slouch, he shows no weak points as a commander, he's versatile. But nothing stands out, either. Nothing is unconventional. There's nothing he does that an ordinary solid commander wouldn't do about as well.

Hopefully Winterfell is his Austerlitz or w/e. But until that, he's down in my books as solid, dependable and tough...but beatable and conventional.

I hope I am not sounding too condecenting, but you have no idea what you are talking about.

“If you refuse,” Mance Rayder said, “Tormund Giantsbane will sound the Horn of Winter three days hence, at dawn.”

He could carry the message back to Castle Black and tell them of the horn, but if he left Mance still alive Lord Janos and Ser Alliser would

seize on that as proof that he was a turncloak. A thousand thoughts flickered through Jon’s head. If I can destroy the horn, smash it here and

now . . . but before he could begin to think that through (1), he heard the low moan of some other horn (2), made faint by the tent’s hide walls.

Mance heard it too. Frowning, he went to the door. Jon followed.

The warhorn (2) was louder outside. Its call had stirred the wildling camp. Three Hornfoot men jogged past, carrying long spears. Horses were

whinnying and snorting, giants roaring in the Old Tongue, and even the mammoths were restless.(3)

“Outrider’s horn,” Tormund told Mance.

“Something’s coming.”(3) Varamyr sat crosslegged on the half-frozen ground, his wolves circled restlessly around him. A shadow swept over

him, and Jon looked up to see the eagle’s blue-grey wings. “Coming, from the east.”(3)

When the dead walk, walls and stakes and swords mean nothing, he remembered. You cannot fight the dead, Jon Snow. No man knows

that half so well as me.

Harma scowled. “East? The wights should be behind us.”(3)

“East,” the skinchanger repeated. “Something’s coming.”

“The Others?” Jon asked.

Mance shook his head. “The Others never come when the sun is up.” Chariots were rattling across the killing ground, jammed with riders

waving spears of sharpened bone.(3)The king groaned. “Where the bloody hell do they think they’re going? Quenn, get those fools back where

they belong. Someone bring my horse. The mare, not the stallion. I’ll want my armor too.” Mance glanced suspiciously at the Wall. Atop the

icy parapets, the straw soldiers stood collecting arrows, but there was no sign of any other activity. “Harma, mount up your raiders. Tormund,

find your sons and give me a triple line of spears.”(4)

“Aye,” said Tormund, striding off.

The mousy little skinchanger closed his eyes and said, “I see them. They’re coming along the streams and game trails . . .”

“Who?”

“Men. Men on horses. Men in steel and men in black.”(4)

“Crows.” Mance made the word a curse. He turned on Jon. “Did my old brothers think they’d catch me with my breeches down if they

attacked while we were talking?”(4)

“If they planned an attack they never told me about it.” Jon did not believe it. Lord Janos lacked the men to attack the wildling camp.

Besides, he was on the wrong side of the Wall, and the gate was sealed with rubble. He had a different sort of treachery in mind, this can’t be

his work.

“If you’re lying to me again, you won’t be leaving here alive,” Mance warned. His guards brought him his horse and armor. Elsewhere

around the camp, Jon saw people running at cross purposes, (5) some men forming up as if to storm the Wall while others slipped into the

woods, women driving dog carts east, mammoths wandering west. He reached back over his shoulder and drew Longclaw just as a thin line

of rangers emerged from the fringes of the wood three hundred yards away.(6) They wore black mail, black halfhelms, and black cloaks. Halfarmored,

Mance drew his sword. “You knew nothing of this, did you?” he said to Jon, coldly.

Slow as honey on a cold morning, the rangers swept down on the wildling camp, picking their way through clumps of gorse and stands of

trees, over roots and rocks. Wildlings flew to meet them(6), shouting war cries and waving clubs and bronze swords and axes made of flint,

galloping headlong at their ancient enemies. A shout, a slash, and a fine brave death, Jon had heard brothers say of the free folk’s way of

fighting.

“Believe what you will,” Jon told the King-beyond-the-Wall, “but I knew nothing of any attack.”

Harma thundered past before Mance could reply, riding at the head of thirty raiders.(6) Her standard went before her; a dead dog impaled on

a spear, raining blood at every stride. Mance watched as she smashed into the rangers.(6) “Might be you’re telling it true,” he said. “Those look

like Eastwatch men. Sailors on horses. Cotter Pyke always had more guts than sense. He took the Lord of Bones at Long Barrow, he might

have thought to do the same with me. If so, he’s a fool. He doesn’t have the men, he—”

“Mance!” the shout came. It was a scout(7), bursting from the trees on a lathered horse. “Mance, there’s more, they’re all around us, iron men,

iron, a host of iron men.”(7)

Cursing, Mance swung up into the saddle. “Varamyr, stay and see that no harm comes to Dalla.” The King-beyond-the-Wall pointed his

sword at Jon. “And keep a few extra eyes on this crow. If he runs, rip out his throat.”

“Aye, I’ll do that.” The skinchanger was a head shorter than Jon, slumped and soft, but that shadowcat could disembowel him with one

paw. “They’re coming from the north too,” Varamyr told Mance. “You best go.”

Mance donned his helm with its raven wings. His men were mounted up as well. “Arrowhead,” Mance snapped, “to me, form wedge.” Yet

when he slammed his heels into the mare and flew across the field at the rangers, the men who raced to catch him lost all semblance of

formation.(8)

Jon took a step toward the tent, thinking of the Horn of Winter, but the shadowcat blocked him, tail lashing. The beast’s nostrils flared, and

slaver ran from his curved front teeth. He smells my fear. He missed Ghost more than ever then. The two wolves were behind him, growling.

“Banners,” he heard Varamyr murmur, “I see golden banners, oh . . .” A mammoth lumbered by, trumpeting, a half-dozen bowmen in the

wooden tower on its back.(9) “The king . . . no . . .”

Then the skinchanger threw back his head and screamed.

The sound was shocking, ear-piercing, thick with agony. Varamyr fell, writhing, and the ’cat was screaming too . . . and high, high in the

eastern sky, against the wall of cloud, Jon saw the eagle burning. For a heartbeat it flamed brighter than a star, wreathed in red and gold and

orange, its wings beating wildly at the air as if it could fly from the pain. Higher it flew, and higher, and higher still.

The scream brought Val out of the tent, white-faced. “What is it, what’s happened?” Varamyr’s wolves were fighting each other, and the

shadowcat had raced off into the trees, but the man was still twisting on the ground. “What’s wrong with him?” Val demanded, horrified.

“Where’s Mance?”

“There.” Jon pointed. “Gone to fight.” The king led his ragged wedge into a knot of rangers, his sword flashing.

“Gone? He can’t be gone, not now. It’s started.”

“The battle?” He watched the rangers scatter before Harma’s bloody dog’s head. The raiders screamed and hacked and chased the men in

black back into the trees. But there were more men coming from the wood, a column of horse. Knights on heavy horse, Jon saw. Harma had

to regroup and wheel to meet them, but half of her men had raced too far ahead.(10)

“The birth!” Val was shouting at him.

Trumpets were blowing all around, loud and brazen.(11) The wildlings have no trumpets, only warhorns. They knew that as well as he did; the

sound sent free folk running in confusion, some toward the fighting, others away.(11) A mammoth was stomping through a flock of sheep that

three men were trying to herd off west. The drums were beating as the wildlings ran to form squares and lines(12), but they were too late, too

disorganized, too slow. The enemy was emerging from the forest, from the east, the northeast, the north; three great columns of heavy

horse,(13) all dark glinting steel and bright wool surcoats. Not the men of Eastwatch, those had been no more than a line of scouts. An army. The

king? Jon was as confused as the wildlings. Could Robb have returned? Had the boy on the Iron Throne finally bestirred himself? “You best

get back inside the tent,” he told Val.

Across the field one column had washed over Harma Dogshead. Another smashed into the flank of Tormund’s spearmen (13) as he and his sons

desperately tried to turn them. The giants were climbing onto their mammoths, though, and the knights on their barded horses did not like

that at all; he could see how the coursers and destriers screamed and scattered at the sight of those lumbering mountains. But there was fear

on the wildling side as well, hundreds of women and children rushing away from the battle(14), some of them blundering right under the hooves

of garrons. He saw an old woman’s dog cart veer into the path of three chariots(14), to send them crashing into each other.

“Gods,” Val whispered, “gods, why are they doing this?”

“Go inside the tent and stay with Dalla. It’s not safe out here.” It wouldn’t be a great deal safer inside, but she didn’t need to hear that.

“I need to find the midwife,” Val said.

“You’re the midwife. I’ll stay here until Mance comes back.” He had lost sight of Mance but now he found him again, cutting his way

through a knot of mounted men. The mammoths had shattered the center column, but the other two were closing like pincers.(15) On the eastern

edge of the camps, some archers were loosing fire arrows at the tents.(16) He saw a mammoth pluck a knight from his saddle and fling him forty

feet with a flick of its trunk. Wildlings streamed past, women and children running from the battle, some with men hurrying them along. A

few of them gave Jon dark looks but Longclaw was in his hand, and no one troubled him. Even Varamyr fled, crawling off on his hands and

knees.

More and more men were pouring from the trees, not only knights now but freeriders and mounted bowmen and men-at-arms in jacks and

kettle helms, dozens of men, hundreds of men.(17) A blaze of banners flew above them. The wind was whipping them too wildly for Jon to see

the sigils, but he glimpsed a seahorse, a field of birds, a ring of flowers. And yellow, so much yellow, yellow banners with a red device,

whose arms were those?

East and north and northeast, he saw bands of wildlings trying to stand and fight, but the attackers rode right over them. The free folk still

had the numbers, but the attackers had steel armor and heavy horses. In the thickest part of the fray, Jon saw Mance standing tall in his

stirrups. His red-and-black cloak and raven-winged helm made him easy to pick out. He had his sword raised and men were rallying to him

when a wedge of knights smashed into them with lance and sword and longaxe.(18) Mance’s mare went up on her hind legs, kicking, and a spear

took her through the breast. Then the steel tide washed over him.

It’s done , Jon thought, they’re breaking. The wildlings were running, throwing down their weapons, Hornfoot men and cave dwellers and

Thenns in bronze scales, they were running. Mance was gone, someone was waving Harma’s head on a pole, Tormund’s lines had broken.(19)

Only the giants on their mammoths were holding, hairy islands in a red steel sea.(20) The fires were leaping from tent to tent and some of the tall

pines were going up as well. And through the smoke another wedge of armored riders came, on barded horses. Floating above them were

the largest banners yet, royal standards as big as sheets; a yellow one with long pointed tongues that showed a flaming heart, and another

like a sheet of beaten gold, with a black stag prancing and rippling in the wind.

Robert, Jon thought for one mad moment, remembering poor Owen, but when the trumpets blew again and the knights charged, the name

they cried was “Stannis! Stannis! STANNIS!”

Jon turned away, and went inside the tent.

The only person who can consider Stannis' arrival as the nick of time, is Jon Snow (1), who was in a position of "damn if you do, damn if you don't" right there.

The Battle of Castle Black was going on for quite some time now. Jon has been fighting for days now, and he just recieved an ultimatum from Mance, that the Night's Watch have 3 days to decide what to do. Stannis had an extra 3 days to get there before Mance could blow his fake horn, and it would'nt matter to anyone but Jon. So no, not exactly a last minute save.

Now, regarding the actual battle, I have bolded the parts that should interest us when looking at the battle. We have a POV from the center of the WIldling camp.

We see that the first thing is the warhorn. Why announce if you are going to carry a surprise attack? Because you want to get the other side to react to that announcment (3). Does Mance fumble for words, completly hapless as to what to do? No, he knows what to do, and how to react if someone is trying to sneak up on him (4). What he does'nt know, and his eye in the sky has'nt told him yet, is that there is a new party in town. The warhorn is not a courtesy, it serves a function. The wildlings now need to tilt thier entire formation 90 degrees east. This means that when Stannis attacks from the north-north east-east, he will not only be facing thier flank with his entire host, but thier lines would be disorgenised because they just needed to shift thier entire formation.(5)

Next up are the rangers. Fitting, and this is another reason for the use of the warhorn. The others don't use warhorns, the NW do. Mance already has the wrong impression of who he is fighting with. The NW attack the wildling camp, leading to the wildlings attacking in thier direction, and so slow down thier reaction time. But they were only the bait (7). Mance, realizing that he had been duped, leads a charge against the new threat (8).The mammoths, packing considerable fire power, move into play (9). The leading element of the wildlings is too invested in chasing the bait, it's too late for them when the new threat arrives (10).

Trumpets are used, both to signal the attack, but also for the psychological aspect of it. The wildlingsare not used to hearing trumpets. It send even more wildlings to flight, fearing the unknown. But not all. Some stand and start to form into squares (12).

The assualt picks up pace, and now the Wildlings, who have spent the last moments changing position from facing south, to east, now need to face north (13). The horsemen, and the panic caused in the confusion, leads to more and more wildlings running for thier lives (14). The strongest opposition are the mammoths, driven by giants, packed with bowmen. Easy to understand. The horses don't like them, and they rain arrows on all who come near. Meanwhile some of Stannis' archers are sending fire arrows to spread even more chaos in the wildling camp (16).

To keep momentum, Stannis sends the archers who have finished shooting fire arrows on thier horses, along with the rest of the light cavalry (17). Mance tries to rally his men one last time, but it's too much (18). He falls with his mare. Harma had been slain, and ironically her own head was mounted on a pole. Tormund's triple line of spears had broken by now (19), and the only ones still putting up a fight are the mammoths(20).

Stannis delivers the coup de grace with the last cahrge.

So, no. It was not a last minute save by an unexpected cavalry attack. It was a well planned attack by a combined force of light infantry, archers, and light and heavy horse, designed to accomplish the goal (removing the Wildling threat to the Wall and the North - Achieved 100%), with minimum casualties (roughlu a few dozen wounded, few killed), in a battle with a numerical disadvantage of 20-1.

But sure, write it off as plot device.

The latter sounds like a really good win, but nothing about it stands out strategically or tactically that we know of. It's basically Salamis without the feint and with inverted numbers. If it was described more, it might be more impressive, but as it it sounds pretty paint by numbers. I'm not saying it's not a credit, I'm saying nothing about the thinking that we have heard of speaks to a great commander.

Oh FFS, in the latest top commander thread you placed Robb in first place for "brilliance" in using a large mounted force to destroy one army by luring it's cavalry component, who was led by an idiot, into a trap, therby freeing Robb's 6,000 cavalry to destory ~8,000 infantry who were not expecting anything from the direction thier CO just went with near 2,000 cavalry of his own. The other was that he found a hidden goat track and again, used 6,000 cavalry to destroy a force of ~10,000 raw recruits.

There is nothing at all about Robb's two battles that shows briliance. It's favouritism. It has nothing to do with the actual events in the books, as long as you like the chartacter enough.

[Draco_Dracul]

Pretty much this.

It's a good victory, but it's by no means impressive, it's about as impressive as Tywin defeating Stannis on the Blackwater if you ask me.

EDIT: His victory over Victarion is a much more impressive victory, probably the high point of his military career.

I agree.

Holding Storm's End says absolutely nothing about Stannis in terms of strategic and tactical ability (neither good nor bad, just nothing at all). It says plenty about his will and stubbornness, but when you are fighting an enemy that specifically wants a surrender and are unwilling press an assault, not surrendering is a tactic Hodor could figure out. People have covered the battle with the Wildlings far better than I could. But beating the Iron Born at sea is very impressive.

[James Arryn]

Nyrhex-

I hope I am not sounding too contesenting, but you have no idea what you're talking about.

Well, yeah, a little condescending by definition, but don't worry about it. I've disagreed with Stannis fans before, and I know how personally some of you take this. Just promise me you're not grinding your molars or burning religious dissidents and we're good. :)

The only person who can consider Stannis' arrival as the nick of time, is Jon Snow (1), who was in a position of "damn if you do, damn if you don't" right there.

The Battle of Castle Black was going on for quite some time now. Jon has been fighting for days now, and he just recieved an ultimatum from Mance, that the Night's Watch have 3 days to decide what to do. Stannis had an extra 3 days to get there before Mance could blow his fake horn, and it would'nt matter to anyone but Jon. So no, not exactly a last minute save.

Ok, first off, about that massive quote. I just spent forever scrolling up and deleting it because it wouldn't let me format quote. That's the longest quote I've ever seen, so you've got that going for you. I'm not entirely sure about the wallpaper, though. For example, in the midst of what I assume you meant to blue-phasize as indicative of it not being a surprise attack, you somehow skipped past lines like "but they were too late, too slow, too disorganized" which would seem, to those of us who don't know what we're talking about, an indication of tactical surprise in effect. I suppose you didn't highlight that because you thought me already confused enough.

Anyhoo, onto your point above. I don't understand all that Jon stuff you're saying, tbh. What does Mance's ultimatum and the 3 day thing have to do with achieving complete tactical surprise on an exhausted and completely front-facing enemy by hitting them in the flank when they had no idea you were there? Seriously, what does all that 3 day/ultimatum stuff have to do with it? The passages you quote are an illustration of a flank attack achieving tactical surprise. With good discipline and so forth, as stipulated. To be honest, I had downplayed the advantage in troop quality myself, but your re-read emphasized it more than I thought. Basically, aside from the giants, Mance had an army of skirmishers. Another ( unhighlited!) line about "the wildlings had the numbers but the attackers had steel armor and heavy cavalry horses" as an example. Thanks for the reminder.

Now, regarding the actual battle, I have bolded the parts that should interest us when looking at the battle. We have a POV from the center of the WIldling camp.

We see that the first thing is the warhorn. Why announce if you are going to carry a surprise attack?

Okay, quick answer: lack of cell phones or similar. Have you ever had an outdoor conversation with 1500 people?

A surprise attack means achieving tactical surprise. It doesn't mean they're caught in their beds. A lot of the phrasing you are using yourself...caught trying to shift positions, etc...is the language of tactical surprise. Just want to clarify that because I think you're spending a lot of energy on a strawman, and it may be unintentional.

Because you want to get the other side to react to that announcment (3). Does Mance fumble for words, completly hapless as to what to do? No, he knows what to do, and how to react if someone is trying to sneak up on him.

That's your alternative? Honestly?

In real life, tactical surprise is rarely demonstrated by behaving like a moron. I'll give you a few quick examples of complete tactical surprise from history. Doing this off memory, so forgive me if some of my numbers are hazy:

Teutoburg Wald. Arminians achieves one of the greatest ambushes in history, wiping out three Roman Legions. The surprise attack took place over a few days. The initial attack was spread out along several miles and the Romans had time to build a night camp. Most of the killing happened on the second and third day.

Stamford Bridge. Harrold Godwinson achieved complete surprise by appearing on the horizon when the Vikings had no idea they were in the vacinity. They were on two sides of the river, and not fully kitted out. They managed to get most of their 9000 men onto one side of the river as Harold descended, and he and Hardrada (enemy leader) had a brief conference about Harold's brother Tostig, to no avail. The Vikings formed their famous shield wall, a couple of heroes held the bridge for a while, and then the Saxons forced the crossing and battle began in earnest.

Waterloo. Blucher achieves complete tactical surprise by appearing late in the day on Napoleon's right flank when it was thought that a) he had been driven back the day before at Lingy, and in any event b) should have been accounted for by a column sent in pursuit of them. As things occurred, however, Derlon and co. lost contact and just wandered about, do Napolron's army only had a few hours notice that they were even in the area.

Now, perhaps you are seeing a trend? Tactical surprise to an army is not the same as to an individual person. You aren't actually looking the other way when they hit you. Because it takes a VERY LONG TIME to redeploy thousands of men with any kind of cohesion, tactical surprise means to effectively arrive before your enemy has time to organize an ordered response and put it into affect. You won't see people walking about speechless having no idea what to do. I mean, the assumption is that whoever's in charge actually knows what he's doing. The actual problem for the surprised party is that they are caught without sufficient time to react properly, they are overcommitted on another direction, that their counter move is hasty and disorganized.

Iow, exactly what you described. Or are about to describe again below:

4). What he does'nt know, and his eye in the sky has'nt told him yet, is that there is a new party in town. The warhorn is not a courtesy, it serves a function. The wildlings now need to tilt thier entire formation 90 degrees east. This means that when Stannis attacks from the north-north east-east, he will not only be facing thier flank with his entire host, but thier lines would be disorgenised because they just needed to shift thier entire formation.(5)

Right. We seem to be agreeing now. Not sure how this fits into your point, but I am interested in the developments.

Next up are the rangers. Fitting, and this is another reason for the use of the warhorn. The others don't use warhorns, the NW do. Mance already has the wrong impression of who he is fighting with. The NW attack the wildling camp, leading to the wildlings attacking in thier direction, and so slow down thier reaction time. But they were only the bait (7). Mance, realizing that he had been duped, leads a charge against the new threat (8).The mammoths, packing considerable fire power, move into play (9). The leading element of the wildlings is too invested in chasing the bait, it's too late for them when the new threat arrives (10).

Trumpets are used, both to signal the attack, but also for the psychological aspect of it. The wildlingsare not used to hearing trumpets. It send even more wildlings to flight, fearing the unknown. But not all. Some stand and start to form into squares (12).

The assualt picks up pace, and now the Wildlings, who have spent the last moments changing position from facing south, to east, now need to face north (13). The horsemen, and the panic caused in the confusion, leads to more and more wildlings running for thier lives (14). The strongest opposition are the mammoths, driven by giants, packed with bowmen. Easy to understand. The horses don't like them, and they rain arrows on all who come near. Meanwhile some of Stannis' archers are sending fire arrows to spread even more chaos in the wildling camp (16).

Yeh, exactly.

I'm not sure what you think I'm arguing, by the points you're making. You are illustrating my point for mr. I'm going to assume you think I was saying Mance was rendered Gormless with shock and awe as he was hit in the back by Lightbringer. As I think I've demonstrated, that would not be the point I was making.

To keep momentum, Stannis sends the archers who have finished shooting fire arrows on thier horses, along with the rest of the light cavalry (17). Mance tries to rally his men one last time, but it's too much (18). He falls with his mare. Harma had been slain, and ironically her own head was mounted on a pole. Tormund's triple line of spears had broken by now (19), and the only ones still putting up a fight are the mammoths(20).

Stannis delivers the coup de grace with the last cahrge.

Right. Like I said, solid workmanlike job. I think you actually missed the best bit, the Cromwell cavalry move I gave them credit for. (Based in what O. Cromwell did and Rupert didn't, btw).

So, no. It was not a last minute save by an unexpected cavalry attack. It was a well planned attack by a combined force of light infantry, archers, and light and heavy horse, designed to accomplish the goal (removing the Wildling threat to the Wall and the North - Achieved 100%), with minimum casualties (roughlu a few dozen wounded, few killed), in a battle with a numerical disadvantage of 20-1.

It's not really central to our disconnect, but I didn't specify 'surprisecavalry attack'. I said surprise attack, and only got specific to cavalry about how they effectively dealt with the giants. Maybe you were thinking cavalry because that would be the bear minimum of speed needed to achieve this 'Hey, where'd they go?' Strawman special attack you thought I was describing?

But sure, write it off as plot device.

Ok.

Oh, by the by, I think the ratio is roughly half what you're suggesting. Still, a solid job, even with the significant advantage in equipment that I had previously underrated.

Oh FFS, in the latest top commander thread you placed Robb in first place for "brilliance" in using a large mounted force to destroy one army by luring it's cavalry component, who was led by an idiot, into a trap, therby freeing Robb's 6,000 cavalry to destory ~8,000 infantry who were not expecting anything from the direction thier CO just went with near 2,000 cavalry of his own. The other was that he found a hidden goat track and again, used 6,000 cavalry to destroy a force of ~10,000 raw recruits.

Getting all worked up again, are we? Again, I will accept no dental bills.

I disagree in the main with most of your adjectives and descriptive nouns above. Jaime's not an idiot. He was just caught by...say it with me now...surprise by a force he had no reason to believe was even in existence in his corner of the world. See how effective it was? Although I missed the part where Grey Wind is in the backseat when Jaime checks the rear view mirror, do perhaps I overestimated how surprising it all was.

But among the differences were that in this case it was completely by design, premised on an extended plan devised way back at the Twins, and carried out to perfection against a respected general leading troops with real armor and everything. But not to belabour the point, he then went on a string of victories, and never faced a defeat. Yes, I would call that brilliant

You do not, but of course your version is based on knowing what you're talking about and my not. Right?

There is nothing at all about Robb's two battles that shows briliance. It's favouritism. It has nothing to do with the actual events in the books, as long as you like the chartacter enough.

Interesting hypothesis. For the record, own that recent rank your 5 favourite characters, Robb ranked 0th out of 5 for me. Which, given your hypothesis, is troubling. In fact, I rated several characters from my best generals list well above my top generals. In fact, the only one of my favourite characters who even made the top 8 was Jaime, at 6th. Interesting, given your conviction that it's all about favourites, and how that clouds our judgment of their military talent.

Where would Stannis rank among your favourite characters, by the by? I ask this with no reference to your avatar.

Cheers for now.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Favourites. The same reason one person can say that Robb Stark was the Alexander the Great of Westeros, or that Tarly is the best because of Ashford, or that Dany, or Ramsay are, because they never lost a battle. Combine that with Jon Snow's contempt for the southerners, how he knocks them down in the books with Godry and the running giant, and people look at it like a "one thousand elite knights against a rabble, no surprise". It's not elite knights, it's not a rag-tag rabble. And it's definatly not a simple example of cavalry shock charge. Still would'nt matter to people.

:agree:

[E-Ro]

Ok, first of all, Nyrhex and bbe bless your hearts. You guys have been fantastic in this thread. Just to chime in on this though, im going to re post some points I made from another thread so much of this post will be copy pasted.

Stannis uses the men of Eastwatch to guide him and his thousand men to castle black. He launches a phenomenal three pronged assault on the wilding horde. He attacks the wildling soldiers and Mance tries to put up an effective defense, but it’s too little too late. Stannis has three columns of heavy horse assault Mances men. Stannis knows he can’t hope to take Mance in a pitched battle, Mance has too many men it’s simply not feasible at all. So he plays to his strengths, he knows that individually his men are better equipped and trained then your average wildling so he launches a daring and bold lightning attack designed to capture or kill the enemy commander or cause as much chaos and discord in the enemy ranks as possible getting them to break or accomplishing both tasks (which he does). Mance also had unconventional wepons in the form of giants and mammoths. No other commander in westeros has ever fought anything like this before, it was stannis’ first time against them as well. They manage to perform very well against the armored column sent against them. But the failure of one column did not affect the other two, now that is a damn good showing of Stannis’ leadership. This is imo, Stannis’ most impressive victory. Mance is himself no slouch at leading his men, he jumps right into action as soon as he hears the trumpets blaring, it’s too bad for him that Stannis planned this attack in such a way that it would have been extremely hard for Mance to win. The battle was not lost because of mances incompetence; it was lost because Stannis played to his strengths. He smashed an army far larger then his, and the wildlings had unconventional weapons in the form of giants and mammoths. We see how he split his heavy horse into 3 separate columns to surround, encircle, and crush mances hosts ability to fight back. His assault on the wildings completely demoralized them and crippled their ability to respond. He accomplished all of his objectives here, the complete and utter destruction of the wildlings ability to wage war, and the capture of the king beyond the wall.

Let me now address some common point’s people who don’t really know what they are talking about in regards to medieval warfare use to lessen this accomplishment.

1. The wildings had only a few thousand warriors!

That’s not true. Mances horde is placed at 100k people. Now the rate of fighting men in the wildling society is far greater then that of most other places. This is due to their lifestyle and their values. Its an extremely warlike society and only the strong survive for long. Even some of their women fight. These people will be big, strong, and fierce. We also have this quote by stannis on the wildling host.

Stannis bristled at that. "I defeated your uncle Victarion and his Iron Fleet off Fair Isle, the first time your father crowned himself. I held Storm's End against the power of the Reach for a year, and took Dragonstone from the Targaryens.

I smashed Mance Rayder at the Wall, though he had twenty times my numbers. Tell me, turncloak, what battles has the Bastard of Bolton ever won that I should fear him?"

Twenty times his numbers is not accurate if Stannis is counting all the wildings in the horde, if hes including the old men, children, and woman who don’t fight the wildings have 100 times his numbers(he has 1k men the wilding host is 100k strong) so Stannis is counting only the wilding warriors. The ones that actually fight.

2. The wildings are ill equipped and have no formal training at arms!

This is true; they don’t have training by a master at arms fight with lesser weapons and are not very disciplined. But they are fierce, savage and have a huge number of fighters compared to stannis. I also find it troubling that people use the fact that stannis’ men are better equipped than the wildings as a way to lessen this victory. That’s nonsense. A good commander uses his men’s strengths to his advantage, and he tries to downplay their weaknesses. That’s precisely what makes him a good commander. Furthermore, you won’t hear any historian ever say how a better equipped forces leader is not good because his men had better equipment. Think about it, no one bitches about the romans having better equipment and training then 90% of their enemies, same for alexander the great his men were far superior to what he was fighting, yet no one says “lol brah he sucks because his men were better than the enemy” Also, let’s put some of you guys saying this about the wildlings in some plate or mail, give you a steel weapon and put you up against 5 screaming savages intent on killing you and see how long it takes them to knock you down and kill the shit out of you.

Anyway, yeah, people who dismiss this battle are the same people that complain about Stannis in every other topic. This is just another chance for them to bash him. The fact is he defeated an army of 20k WARRIORS and broke about 60 thousand kids women, and elderly folk. The battle was a flawless victory that went perfectly and just as he planned it. His enemy had numbers, knew the terrain, is far more accustomed to fighting in the north, and had weapons no westerosi army in the books has ever faced. As for the wildings discipline people need to reread the jon chapter when stannis attacks, mance has his men well in hand and issues orders to his subordinates very well. Dismissing this fight because "lol teh wildlings had no armor" is nonsense. Jon says it himself of one of the wildlings, hes better with a stone axe then most knights are with castle forged steel. Credit were credit is due people. This victory is impressive whether you like it or not.

[Tetrarch42]

I wonder if GRRM would ever way in on these "best commander" issues. To me the book makes a rather clear cut case that Stannis' victory at the Wall is an example of him being a brilliant and versatile commander. Even if others argue against Stannis' quality as a general the book appears to clearly indicate that this was a stunning victory.

[E-Ro]

I wonder if GRRM would ever way in on these "best commander" issues. To me the book makes a rather clear cut case that Stannis' victory at the Wall is an example of him being a brilliant and versatile commander. Even if others argue against Stannis' quality as a general the book appears to clearly indicate that this was a stunning victory.

Yeah, agreed. Some of these people go on as if other leaders in the series (or the person writing the post themselves, which is the most laughable part) could have done the same thing stannis did only better. It was a well thought out and well planned attack that went exactly as he wanted against foe that was numerically superior and had weapons none of his men had ever even seen before. The wildling warriors all rush to fight him and they put up a good showing, but he planned the attack too well and struck too hard for them to recover. It is his finest moment. Even more so then fair isle.

[Nyrhex]

Nyrhex-

Well, yeah, a little condescending by definition, but don't worry about it. I've disagreed with Stannis fans before, and I know how personally some of you take this. Just promise me you're not grinding your molars or burning religious dissidents and we're good. :)

So, if I say that I hope I am not condecending, you take it as a Q to take a jab at Stannis fans? Realy?

I am not saying this as a Stannis fan. I am saying this as someone who does have experiance in command, as someone who did need to coordiate with large groups of people in silent (to answear your question. Usually hand signals or flags. Sometimes runners), as someone who understands that Blackwater, Wall, and Meereen's reinforcements are not at all the same, and that timing was not just luck in all three.

Blackwater was timing for Tyrion and the Lannisters, not for Garlan. He won the battle with numbers. The battle against Tyrion took from late afternoon till dusk. The battle against Garlan, from first clash till last ship left the shore, took all night. And that is when Galan has three times the men Stannis has, before half of Stannis' host re-follows "Renly". The tactical surprise is dwarfed by the massive advantage in numbers, and the confusion that is caused by Renly's armor, with more then half of Stannis' force attacking the other half.

At the Wall Stannis won with tactics, where timing was not luck, it was planned. It was not an exhasted enemy. Jon even calls it out. The NW is near exhausted, the wildlings can send fresh men every time. Stannis arrived days before the NW even needed to answer the ultimatum, and that is without even counting that Mance was bluffing. A man running from the undead is not going to tear down the magical defense against them, even if the horn is real, just because he wants to pass south and still be king. It's bullshit. Timing was only importent for Jon, who had to decide if he is going to kill Mance and be killed, or go to Slynt and be killed. For Slynt and the Eastwatch reinforcements on the Wall, it was a (admittingly, prety lame) tuesday.

At Meereen plot device that is the cartoonish villians who use slaves on stilts to defend thier siege engines and sellswords who muse "they still don't understand why the Second Sons and Storm Crows deserted them..." will win the day for Dany loyalists, not Victarion with reavers.

Your argument is that lucky timing was more importent than tactics or any other element. I strongly disagree.

The Blackwater was numbers, and confusion due to Renly's armor.

The Wall was due to a proper feint and coordination with light infantry, archers, heavy and then light horse to perform different tasks.

The battle to conclude the Siege of Meereen would be won by Dany loyalists because the slavers are a joke.

The Battle of the WW and the Camps was basic manuvering and an idiot in charge of the other camp.

Oxcross was a lucky finding of a goat track. The rest was again, basic assault on an unsuspecting enemy.

Tarly arrived at Duskendale in time because Roose told Tywin everything he needed to know.

Timing was not the deciding factor in any of those. It was the deciding factor for other people, like Tyrion and Jon, but not for the outcome of the battles.

[E-Ro]

Another thing I don't get. You people do realize that the wildlings aren't this hippie peace loving anti war culture right? Its not like this was a peaceful march on the wall asking nicely to get past. This was an INVASION by a warlike culture that lives in the farthest reaches of the north. They raid and fight amongst each other constantly, they will be hunting for food far more often the the peasants south of the wall, they will all have incredible survival skills and be better equipped to live off the land. Not all of them will have armor sure, but dismissing them because of that is bs.

[danm_999]

I'd be more ameniable to the notion Stannis' manoeuvers at the Wall were tactical flukes if we didn't have previous examples of him doing similarly impressive things when on other enemies home turfs.

This is the guy who ambushed the Ironborn at sea, after all. At a certain point, you have to give credit where it's due.

[Kungsmurfen]

Pretty much what E-Ro said. It's an impressive victory and shouldn't be ignored like it was nothing.

[Bloodraven's Lost Eye]

I don't really get where you're coming from, it's obviously a great victory, from a readers pov. From the pov of people in KL, yes they shrug it off as a cheap victory, but we, the readers, know better.

To james arryn, the timing of both stannis and tywin is not some stroke of luck, deus ex machina ploy by grrm. Both of these 'flanking' situations were strokes of genius by two of the best commanders at war.

[Lummel]

Meh.

Mormont was confident that he could cut the wildling column to threads with 300 night's watchmen. Stannis had at least five times more troops, some at least more heavily armoured, guided in to attack the wildling flank by Nights watch rangers and with magical tactical support from Melisandre . For him to have lost would have been amazingly shocking. Victory was to be expected.

It is a fairly limited victory - the ability of the wildlings to continue to fight was not compromised, at least two large groupings managed to draw off intact and the number of prisoners was low considering that most of the wildling horde were very slow moving and on foot.

[Señor de la Tormenta]

Another thing I don't get. You people do realize that the wildlings aren't this hippie peace loving anti war culture right? Its not like this was a peaceful march on the wall asking nicely to get past. This was an INVASION by a warlike culture that lives in the farthest reaches of the north. They raid and fight amongst each other constantly, they will be hunting for food far more often the the peasants south of the wall, they will all have incredible survival skills and be better equipped to live off the land. Not all of them will have armor sure, but dismissing them because of that is bs.

Battle of briedge of skulls. Marsh abd Endrew Tarth took all the remaining resorces in caste black to fight an equaly sized wilding group. Dressed in irion, fighting with iron. A bloody victory losing as many men as the wildings. Isnt this enought evidence that they are for real????

[Tetrarch42]

Meh.

Mormont was confident that he could cut the wildling column to threads with 300 night's watchmen. Stannis had at least five times more troops, some at least more heavily armoured, guided in to attack the wildling flank by Nights watch rangers and with magical tactical support from Melisandre . For him to have lost would have been amazingly shocking. Victory was to be expected.

It is a fairly limited victory - the ability of the wildlings to continue to fight was not compromised, at least two large groupings managed to draw off intact and the number of prisoners was low considering that most of the wildling horde were very slow moving and on foot.

No, Thoren Smallwood thought that a couple hundred Night's Watchmen could cut the Wildlings to ribbons. Qhorin Halfhand called Thoren a fool.

[Señor de la Tormenta]

No, Thoren Smallwood thought that a couple hundred Night's Watchmen could cut the Wildlings to ribbons. Qhorin Halfhand called Thoren a fool.

A hundred Night watchmen fighted a cuple of houndred wildings. Most of them died....

But lets keep Mormonts quote against an actual battle if it serves to say Stannis victory was a pofcake...

[E-Ro]

Meh.

Mormont was confident that he could cut the wildling column to threads with 300 night's watchmen. Stannis had at least five times more troops, some at least more heavily armoured, guided in to attack the wildling flank by Nights watch rangers and with magical tactical support from Melisandre . For him to have lost would have been amazingly shocking. Victory was to be expected.

It is a fairly limited victory - the ability of the wildlings to continue to fight was not compromised, at least two large groupings managed to draw off intact and the number of prisoners was low considering that most of the wildling horde were very slow moving and on foot.

Im looking for the passage now, but I am pretty sure it wasnt mormont who said that. I am also pretty sure it was immediately brushed off as an idiotic plan. Another issue I have with your post is that you say Stannis had "at least five times as many fighters" 300 times 5 is 1,500. That is the absolute upper max of what Stannis would have had when he attacked the wildlings. It was most likely closer to a thousand then one thousand five hundred. Remember he has men still holding dragonstone and storms end, its not like he took everything he had with him to the wall. I aslo find your assertion that victory was to be expected highly incorrect. When you are outnumbered victory is NEVER to be expected with 100% certainty. As well no one in stannis' army had faced mammoths or giants before so no one knew how they would perform, they were a wildcard in the fight. Whats more they performed very well, shattering one of the columns like glass. As such I dont see how on earth this victory was to be expected.

You are also wrong in that the ability of the wildlings to fight was not compromised. They had just lost most of their leaders and best fighters and were stumbling through the woods starving and scared. They did not have the ability to launch another attack on the wall and after breaking no one could have rounded up all the survivors into another army. The wildlings ceased being a threat to anyone after the battle.

In short, your post is pretty much false.

[Nyrhex]

Meh.

Mormont was confident that he could cut the wildling column to threads with 300 night's watchmen. Stannis had at least five times more troops, some at least more heavily armoured, guided in to attack the wildling flank by Nights watch rangers and with magical tactical support from Melisandre . For him to have lost would have been amazingly shocking. Victory was to be expected.

It is a fairly limited victory - the ability of the wildlings to continue to fight was not compromised, at least two large groupings managed to draw off intact and the number of prisoners was low considering that most of the wildling horde were very slow moving and on foot.

1. The Wildlings were on the move, not in battle formation.

2. The NW did not fully know the composition of the Wildling army.

3. Mormont assumed heavy casualties on his side, or even complete destruction of his force.

4. Mormont did not know that his men were getting ready to kill him and desert becase they did not have faith in him.

5. Stannis had maybe 5 times the men, but only 800 horses.

6. The magical tactical support from Mel only cancealed the magical eye in the sky. If anything, it proves that Mormont had no idea what he was getting into.

7. Victory is never expected when you lead a band of sellswords, pirates, Stromlords, Crownlanders, and Reachmen, fresh from a defeat and low on morale, all the way across the Wall, and further north than any of you have been to, to face an unknown enemy based on a months old warning that said that the last 300 people who tried to look for them were not heared from again. That is a rediculus statement.

8. It is not a limited victory. The wildlings for all intend ant porpuse cannot mount the same attack. They have scattered all across the lands beyond the Wall, with Tormund leading the largest group, with less than a 1,000 fighters. He cannot climb the Wall, nor can he resume the siege on any of the three gates.

9. The numbers of prisoners is irrelevent. Who cares about prisoners if the enemy has no hostages and no coin or will to ransom them? The goal was to break and scatter the enemy. This was accomplished.

[danm_999]

Meh.

Mormont was confident that he could cut the wildling column to threads with 300 night's watchmen.

Umm...

“We’ll hit hard and be away before their horsemen can form up to face us,” Thoren Smallwood said. “If they pursue, we’ll lead them a merry chase, then wheel and hit again farther down the column. We’ll burn their wagons, scatter their herds, and slay as many as we can.

Mance Rayder himself, if we find him. If they break and return to their hovels, we’ve won. If not, we’ll harry them all the way to the Wall, and see to it that they leave a trail of corpses to mark their progress.”

“There are thousands,” someone called from behind Chett.

“We’ll die.” That was Maslyn’s voice, green with fear.

“Die,” screamed Mormont’s raven, flapping its black wings. “Die, die, die.”

“Many of us,” the Old Bear said. “Mayhaps even all of us. But as another Lord Commander said a thousand years ago, that is why they dress us in black. Remember your words, brothers. For we are the swords in the darkness, the watchers on the walls . . .”

[Tetrarch42]

And again, it wasn't Mormont who said that the Night's Watch could get in among the massive wildling host and cut them apart. It was Thoren Smallwood. Thoren Smallwood's tactical sense should be called into question given that Qhorin called him a fool.

Thoren Smallwood is also the guy who charged headlong into a giant and suffered a quick death for it.

Basically, attacking the wildlings with a few hundred Night's Watch men would have been a bad idea.