If Varys had Aegon all along, why was he trying to get Daenerys on the Iron Throne along with Illyrio?

[Big Daddy Dave]

I'd love to get more clarification on Varys and Illyrio's plot in the next book. I'm leaning towards Aegon being real, simply because Varys talking to a dead man is akin to telling the readers the truth. I wouldn't bet everything on it, but that's always been my rationale.

But as far as how much they plotted with or against Dany/Viserys, or used them as tools, they were taking a big risk. Plots and schemes turn to crap all the time for people in ASOIAF. How many times have we seen one thing planned, only to have it fall apart or go another direction? What would they have done if Dany took a back seat, gave Drogo a child, and Viserys showed up in Westeros with a Dothraki army? What if Viserys turned out to be a competent military leader? There were so many ways he could have ruined all of Illyrio and Varys' plans for Aegon. And Viserys would NOT have been deterred by a legitimate Aegon trumping him in the right of succession. That guy would have killed Aegon to make himself next in line so his right of conquest would have been the final word. Varys and Illyrio were taking some BIG chances. They might have been better suited to quietly try to broker some marriages for the both of them that fit into their plans while appearing to be helping.

[Greymoon]

I think Illyrio expected both Dany and Viserys to die in the Dothraki sea. Illyrio knew the Dothraki better than Viserys. He'd have known that Dany was considered a "gift" by Khal Drogo and that a "gift" was given freely and not as an exchange against an army since he Dothrakis are used to receiving "gifts" because if you do not "gift" them with slaves and gold, they'd sack your city anyway. He’d have known, that the Dothraki would never willingly cross the narrow sea. He knew Visery's character as well, his impatience, and probably hoped that Viserys would make a fool of himself and provoke the Dothrakis. Illyrio underestimated Dany's resourcefulness however, though he was certainly aware through his contact with Varys that Robert planned to have her poisoned. Dany, while she was a guest under his roof, was only a shy and fearful girl. He did not expect her to adjust well to her marriage and to the Dothraki culture. But in the off chance that Viserys and Dany survived, Illyrio gave the Dragon eggs to Dany and showed himself in a positive light, so he could continue to spin his web of lies and pretend to have been loyal to them from the beginning.

In the mean time, having Dany and Viserys away traveling and occupied with the Dothraki Illyrio was free to prepare the conquest of Westeros and to prepare fAegon for his role as king, undisturbed. Illyrio didn't expect the dragons to hatch and miscalculated Jorah Mormont's loyalty. If not for Jorah and the dragons Dany would have died a multitude of times.

[Nucky Thompson]

I'd love to get more clarification on Varys and Illyrio's plot in the next book. I'm leaning towards Aegon being real, simply because Varys talking to a dead man is akin to telling the readers the truth. I wouldn't bet everything on it, but that's always been my rationale.

Nope, he was not talking to the dead man and the dead man alone. The children were there as well. It has been suggested that they are provided by Illyrio and are in fact his agents. That may be part of the reason Varys entertains Kevan with this particular story.

[Victor227]

I think Illyrio expected both Dany and Viserys to die in the Dothraki sea. Illyrio knew the Dothraki better than Viserys. He'd have known that Dany was considered a "gift" by Khal Drogo and that a "gift" was given freely and not as an exchange against an army since he Dothrakis are used to receiving "gifts" because if you do not "gift" them with slaves and gold, they'd sack your city anyway. He’d have known, that the Dothraki would never willingly cross the narrow sea. He knew Visery's character as well, his impatience, and probably hoped that Viserys would make a fool of himself and provoke the Dothrakis. Illyrio underestimated Dany's resourcefulness however, though he was certainly aware through his contact with Varys that Robert planned to have her poisoned. Dany, while she was a guest under his roof, was only a shy and fearful girl. He did not expect her to adjust well to her marriage and to the Dothraki culture. But in the off chance that Viserys and Dany survived, Illyrio gave the Dragon eggs to Dany and showed himself in a positive light, so he could continue to spin his web of lies and pretend to have been loyal to them from the beginning.

In the mean time, having Dany and Viserys away traveling and occupied with the Dothraki Illyrio was free to prepare the conquest of Westeros and to prepare fAegon for his role as king, undisturbed. Illyrio didn't expect the dragons to hatch and miscalculated Jorah Mormont's loyalty. If not for Jorah and the dragons Dany would have died a multitude of times.

What would the point of any of it though if he just wanted them to die? He could have had their throats slit at any time. What's more, he sent one of their 'exiled knight pawns' off to protect her specifically, with -orders- from Varys on the side to watch out for the poisoning attempt. If they were looking for her to die, and for Drogo to sack the Seven Kingdoms in revenge, it would have been easiest to just -let her die-. As far as they knew, they still had Viserys (as his death wasn't confirmed for a good long while). As well, he advised Viserys to stay in Pentos with him when the Dothraki left, which would have kept him relatively safe.

You know how you can tell Illyrio was lying when talking to Tyrion? His lips were moving. They lie about their own thoughts, and withhold truths about everything else while letting people make their own false conclusions. That's how Varys and Illyrio have operated so long. I think there's something else to it, something else to Aegon other than what has been concluded at face value.

[The guy from the Vale]

I'd love to get more clarification on Varys and Illyrio's plot in the next book. I'm leaning towards Aegon being real, simply because Varys talking to a dead man is akin to telling the readers the truth. I wouldn't bet everything on it, but that's always been my rationale.

You need to reread that epilogue then. Nowhere in it does Varys confirm that Aegon son of Rhaegar is coming back, just some "Aegon" whose background is still very much in doubt.

[Nucky Thompson]

This raises another question: how did those two careful planners let a wildcard like Tyrion interfere with their carefully laid out plan? Surely they must have anticipated that he would start pushing his own agenda and yet did nothing to prevent it. Either they are less competent than advertised, or this was their intention all along. Perhaps the hatching of the dragons is what made it necessary for them to make sure Aegon is sent invading as soon as possible. But if that was the case, could they really expect Tyrion's influence to be enough? Methinks that they have updated their orders to the leader of the Golden Company (forgot his name) and have thus made sure that Aegon did in fact invade Westeros as soon as possible. Tyrion, on the other hand, was planted to merely convince the king and make it look like as he was calling the shots. Keep in mind that the leader of the Golden Company didn't need much convincing and went along rather quickly. What is more interesting is did Varys and Illyrio have something to do with all the bullsh1t that Daenerys encountered in Slaver's Bay? Knowing her character, they might have provided the distractions or reinforced the existing ones in order to have her occupied safely away from Westeros...

[Victor227]

I think they've fallen into a bit of a pattern with Westerosi exiles. Prior to Tyrion, Varys has taken Jon Connington, Jorah Mormont, and Barristan Selmy under his wing, and they've all proven reliable thanks to that promise of going home/duty/honor. Illyrio was trying to break Tyrion out of his self-destructive rut and onto their team, so that he can follow their orders and march in lockstep with their other exiles, and their Golden Company of exiles. They needed a guy like Tyrion working with Team Connington to get things going. Say what you will about the little guy, but he's excellent at seeing shortcomings and improvising plans. The trouble is that Jon was too concerned with other things going on and left him to the halfmaester to escape.

[Fae Boleyn]

I think Illyrio expected both Dany and Viserys to die in the Dothraki sea. Illyrio knew the Dothraki better than Viserys. He'd have known that Dany was considered a "gift" by Khal Drogo and that a "gift" was given freely and not as an exchange against an army since he Dothrakis are used to receiving "gifts" because if you do not "gift" them with slaves and gold, they'd sack your city anyway. He’d have known, that the Dothraki would never willingly cross the narrow sea. He knew Visery's character as well, his impatience, and probably hoped that Viserys would make a fool of himself and provoke the Dothrakis. Illyrio underestimated Dany's resourcefulness however, though he was certainly aware through his contact with Varys that Robert planned to have her poisoned. Dany, while she was a guest under his roof, was only a shy and fearful girl. He did not expect her to adjust well to her marriage and to the Dothraki culture. But in the off chance that Viserys and Dany survived, Illyrio gave the Dragon eggs to Dany and showed himself in a positive light, so he could continue to spin his web of lies and pretend to have been loyal to them from the beginning.

In the mean time, having Dany and Viserys away traveling and occupied with the Dothraki Illyrio was free to prepare the conquest of Westeros and to prepare fAegon for his role as king, undisturbed. Illyrio didn't expect the dragons to hatch and miscalculated Jorah Mormont's loyalty. If not for Jorah and the dragons Dany would have died a multitude of times.

Illyrio says he expected Dany to die in the Dothraki Sea, but I don't believe him. One simple reason. He gave her the dragon eggs. Now, I'm not saying he thought they'd hatch. But we know from Viserys wanting to take them and Jorah trying to convince Dany to sell them and become a rich Essosi lady living in peace that they are highly valuable, all the more so due to their rarity. I could be wrong, but I think the three of them together were priceless just because they were a set.

However rich you may be, why by all the gods of every fantasy pantheon ever do you give them to someone you're expecting to die? More likely, I'd say the goal was that the inconvenient Viserys would get himself killed and then the Dothraki would join up with the GC just like the GC were at one point told to expect. And, at some point, Khal Drogo would end up dead because I really do think the plan to marry Blue Aegon to Dany is genuine because, regardless of Blue Aegon's true origins, he can't ever prove he's who he believes he is. Not really. Marrying Dany solidifies his claim.

Not sure what they would have done with Rhaego had he lived, though. Possibly found a way to kill him too.

[Frozentree]

Aegon is ahead of both Dany and Viserys in the line of succession, so they could pose him as their official claimant even with the two around. The original plan was to use them to bring the Dothraki to fight for Aegon along with the Golden Company. This got complicated after Viserys's death and they changed their plans. They changed their plans once again after the dragons hatched, this time wanting to marry Dany to Aegon so he can use the dragons.

[Lost Melnibonean]

He only brought them, or they fell into his lap, in Pentos six months before Game begins. He used Dany to secure support from Drogo. (Tristan Rivers tells us the Fat Man's first plan was to join 50k Dothraki and there was evidence that Viserys would be given nominal command of 10k.) He intended to use Viserys to vouch for Aegon. (Viserys was supposed to remain in Pentos bangin bedslaves and drinking wine until the time was right. Then Illyrio would have introduced Aegon and made Viserys an offer he couldn't refuse.

[Rooseman]

I'd love to get more clarification on Varys and Illyrio's plot in the next book. I'm leaning towards Aegon being real, simply because Varys talking to a dead man is akin to telling the readers the truth. I wouldn't bet everything on it, but that's always been my rationale.

There wasn't just Kevan, there were also the little birds. Plus, they were in the Red Keep.

Should he really say "Yeah, we have a Targaryen pretender, but he's really just a Blackfyre"? Even if he was 99,9% sure that his birds could be trusted and nobody else was listening? Would he really put more than two and a half decades of planning at risk, if he could just as well choose to be careful and stick to his lie?

Do you also think that Sansa is really Alayne, Littlefinger's bastard, just because they keep their game up even if they're alone?

What would they have done if Dany took a back seat, gave Drogo a child, and Viserys showed up in Westeros with a Dothraki army?

I think their plan really was, that Viserys would invade Westeros with the Dothraki. The conversation between Varys and Illyrio in AGoT points to that fact, because they say that the upcoming war is too early, since Drogo wouldn't move before his son by Daenerys is born.

To what end though, I have no idea. Some people proposed the idea, that Aegon should take Westeros from Viserys and the Dothraki savages, in order to be the shining hero... but really... that seems unnecessarily complicated to me. Why can't he just take the throne when the 7 Kingdoms are divided by war? Cut out the middle-Targ?

[spinelladude]

Yeah, I support the idea that Viserys and Dany were just distractions for Robert to focus on, and their deaths would've come before fAegon sat the throne, be they slaughtered by fAegon, or dying in his quest for the IT. The plan only changed when it was revealed that Dany had Dragons, at which point it became, have Aegon marry her, take her dragons, and claim her throne. Dany and the Dragons would've legitimized fAegon and removed all doubts of a Blackfyre pretender from him, and if Dany was as timid as she was when Illyrio and Varys had her, then she would be a great pawn/puppet to use, that is until she changed the game and took the Slaver Cities for herself, and founded her own army. Now the Mummer's plan dances to Dany's steps instead of the other way around, to the possible sorrow of Varys and Ilyrio's machinations.

[Iona]

Illyrio says he expected Dany to die in the Dothraki Sea, but I don't believe him. One simple reason. He gave her the dragon eggs. Now, I'm not saying he thought they'd hatch. But we know from Viserys wanting to take them and Jorah trying to convince Dany to sell them and become a rich Essosi lady living in peace that they are highly valuable, all the more so due to their rarity. I could be wrong, but I think the three of them together were priceless just because they were a set.

I always thought the dragon eggs were sort of like... hmmm.... Dany's "certificate of authenticity". Illyrio gave her the eggs to prove the greatest khal alive that this little girl he's been given to wife is not just some slut they found in some Lyseni back alley, but the real deal, the blood of the dragon. Might have also been a smart move to convince Drogo's khalasar too, since I have a feeling that a khal taking a non-dothraki bride is not something they see every day.

[Rooseman]

Yeah, I support the idea that Viserys and Dany were just distractions for Robert to focus on, and their deaths would've come before fAegon sat the throne, be they slaughtered by fAegon, or dying in his quest for the IT. The plan only changed when it was revealed that Dany had Dragons, at which point it became, have Aegon marry her, take her dragons, and claim her throne. Dany and the Dragons would've legitimized fAegon and removed all doubts of a Blackfyre pretender from him, and if Dany was as timid as she was when Illyrio and Varys had her, then she would be a great pawn/puppet to use, that is until she changed the game and took the Slaver Cities for herself, and founded her own army. Now the Mummer's plan dances to Dany's steps instead of the other way around, to the possible sorrow of Varys and Ilyrio's machinations.

Daenerys and Viserys just being used as distractions doesn't really fit with Varys' and Illyrio's conversation in AGoT

"[...] I warn you, the wolf and lion will soon be at each other’s throats, whether we will it or no.”

“Too soon, too soon,” the voice with the accent complained. “What good is war now? We are not ready. Delay.”

[...]

“Nonetheless, we must have time. The princess is with child. The khal will not bestir himself until his son is born. You know how they are, these savages.”

[Greymoon]

Maybe, Viserys was the distraction, the planned sacrifice, we don't know that Viserys would have been safe with Illyrio back in Pentos. Then, with Viserys out of the picture, Illyrio would have expected Dany (known to him only as an innocent and lonely girl, desperate for a family) to support fAegon's claim.

It might be that Dany was meant to live, but I doubt Illyrio would have bothered to keep Viserys alive for much longer since he'd have been the most direct threat to Aegon's claim.

[Welease Woger]

I'm not fully convinced by this Blackfyre theory. As nobody can attest that Aegon is legit, I think it would make more sense to betroth Daenerys to him, rather than to a barbarian warlord, this way even even if people questioned Aegon's identity, he would still be married to an uncontested Targaryen heir.

Betrothing her to Khal Drogo in order to have his khalasar invading Westeros in order to provide a distraction seems like a terrible idea, as they couldn't rely on the Dothraki to attack Westeros whenever they wanted, since Drogo would go Westeros only when he wanted and if he wanted, so it's difficult to time their attack with a civil war in the 7K. What if Drogo took 10 years to attack Westeros? What if the 7K were strong and united when he decided to go there? And how would they convince Aegon to have such patience?

It's not plausible that Illyrio really relied on the Dothaki to do anything useful other than simply keeping Daenerys and Viserys distracted or killed, but there are easier and cheaper ways to eliminate them -- I know Illyrio is super-rich, but 3 dragon eggs are a very expensive gift that could have suited Aegon better if Illyrio wanted him and him alone in the Iron Throne. And he could have bullshited Aegon in order to make him believe that he had nothing to do with their demises. Moreover, Varys has been loyal to the Targaryens during Robert's Rebellion and he warned Aerys not to open KL's gates to Tywin, that't difficult to explain if he were completely anti-Targ.

I have a different opinion on what is Illyrio's and Varys' plan. In Daenerys' very first chapter in the very first book it is heavily implied that Illyrio is a follower of the Lord of Light, but not much more was told about that later on. Well, I think Illyrio most be much more religious than it appears, and he was helping Viserys, Daenerys and Aegon because he believes on the prophecies: there were three Targaryen descendents of Aerys and Rhaella and he probably believed that one of them was Azor Ahai reborn, for that reason he tried to help all of them. He was putting his eggs in different baskets.

TL;DR:

BF theory is BS.

Illyrio (and maybe Varys) follows the Lord of Light and could possibly believe in the prophecies.

Aegon, Daenerys and Viserys are all descendents of Aerys and Rhaella and could be AAR or TPTWP.

[Iona]

I have a different opinion on what is Illyrio's and Varys' plan. In Daenerys' very first chapter in the very first book it is heavily implied that Illyrio is a follower of the Lord of Light, but not much more was told about that later on. Well, I think Illyrio most be much more religious than it appears, and he was helping Viserys, Daenerys and Aegon because he believes on the prophecies: there were three Targaryen descendents of Aerys and Rhaella and he probably believed that one of them was Azor Ahai reborn, for that reason he tried to help all of them. He was putting his eggs in different baskets.

I brought the Lord of Light thing up in some other thread some time ago, since I thought it was passing queer that Varys seems to hate magic and all those who practice it, but Illyrio was talking about the Red God in AGOT. I don't think I got any satisfactory explanations for that.

[complexphoenix]

I think Varys was planning to have Viserys invade with the Dothraki, then if Viserys and Drogo didn't die in battle he'd arrange their deaths once they'd outlived their usefulness. Then he'd have Aegon marry Dany and rule.

[Rooseman]

I brought the Lord of Light thing up in some other thread some time ago, since I thought it was passing queer that Varys seems to hate magic and all those who practice it, but Illyrio was talking about the Red God in AGOT. I don't think I got any satisfactory explanations for that.

Red Priests aren't per se sorcerers, keep in mind that magic was pretty dead before the red comet, so the Red Faith was pretty much just another religion.

Of course there are examples of people who practiced blood magic before that - but they're the exception. Melisandre isn't your typical Red Priestess, she's a sorceress who happens to follow R'hllor.

[Lost Melnibonean]

I brought the Lord of Light thing up in some other thread some time ago, since I thought it was passing queer that Varys seems to hate magic and all those who practice it, but Illyrio was talking about the Red God in AGOT. I don't think I got any satisfactory explanations for that.

I've wondered about this too. Currently I'm of the opinion that Illyrio was just speaking in platitudes. But that red priest who was fatter than Illyrio in Drogo's manse bugs me. Was that Moqorro and if so why was he there?