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The Lyanna + Rhaegar = Jon Thread, Part II


Werthead

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I think Azor Ahai/TPwwP is pretty clearly Dany, but otherwise I agree with Sarella on this. Instead of Azor Ahai, I'd say the third head of the dragon is a suitable mystery, and there are plenty of others.

In the end, what is it that haunts Ned? He doesn't toss and turn in his thoughts because he fathered a bastard -- he tosses and turns because he's told a lie, or a number of lies, these last fourteen years. That's the interesting bit. His lying is a more immediate stain on his honor than any bastard that he allegedly fathered, at least in his own thoughts.

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My biggest objections to R+L=J are as follows:

1. It trivializes the character development of Ned Stark by making him a cardboard caricature of Honor, in much the same way it lends itself toward making Rhaegar a cardboard caricature of Noble. This was the big stain on his honor, that he fathered a bastard. Don't take that away from him. It also lends itself toward romanticizing Rhaegar and Lyanna (OMG Rhaegar was a Special Noble Person he wouldn't do such a thing it must have been sekritly WOMANCE) but since it doesn't necessarily have to do so, I won't list that as a separate fatal objection.

--I think it makes Ned more interesting; it keeps him from being a cardboard caricature. Here's this man to whom honor is everything and he is torn between what he owes his dead sister on the one hand and his living wife and Jon, all of whom he loves. He cannot keep faith with all of them. And so he "lives his lies for 14 years"--a man who is driven by honor--and is assumed by everyone to have fathered a bastard after his marriage and forced that child into his family when those are things he would never have done in ordinary circumstances.

2. It trivializes the hard choices made by Jon himself. In particular Stannis's offer of Winterfell has no bite if it wouldn't be Jon's by rights had he accepted.

--Jon is acting on what he knows about himself and his history. We see in his rise at the Wall the fact that someone with apparently no advantages can still do quite well.

3. Now that Jon's place is firmly established at the Wall, what pupose does it serve? Being his father's son has paradoxically allowed him to transcend being merely his father's son, if that makes any sense. At this point, his reaction to learning that he was Rhaegar and Lyanna'a chld would be near indifference. He's a man of the Night's Watch now.

--I hope you're right on that; I have had about enough of the "Jon must decide whether to keep his Night Watch vows" subplot.

4. In a world still haunted by prophecy and Others and the Doom of Valyria, to have the big mystery at the heart of the whole series be who secretly banged who seems so picayune.

--And yet that is often quite important in real life. I like it that this series is rooted in the past. When we begin reading GoT, we can tell at once that we are not in a sparkling new world; we are in a world in which important, painful, terrible, heroic things have happened that continue to affect the current generation--again, as is the case in real life. These people don't live in a vacuum; they must live with the graces and horrors of the past.

5. It doesn't really explain how Ned lost it so badly when Catelyn mentioned Ashara Dayne. Ned demanded that that name never cross her lips again -- hardly a response one would expect of the famous Frozenheart. He should have been if anything pleased that the rumors he sowed were bearing fruit. I think it was his unpleasant breakup with Ashara Dayne (possibly those fatal words "if you ever really loved me" were uttered) that drove him in a fit of passion and rage to Wylla, which helps explain 1) why he would be so angry ar Ashara even years later; 2) what extraordinary circumstances there could have ben "to make Ned Stark forget his precious honor"; 3) why Ned Stark's bastard had a mother who was just some woman (as most of them are).

--I don't think Ned EVER sowed rumors about Ashara. I think Wylla is the "fall woman" for the role of Jon's mother if one should be needed (if she really is his mother there's no reason not to tell Jon and the rest of the world). If Ned did fall in love with Ashara and then have to marry Catelyn to seal the Tully alliance, then I would expect him to be protective of his lost love's honor . . . especially if she is now dead. Another reason for his rage when Catelyn asks about Ashara is that he doesn't want to lie to her (it's ROBERT he told about Wylla). "He's my blood"--pretty obvious circumlocution.

Also, I think the fact that Jon has a direwolf at all suggests that he really is Ned Stark's son. Dun wolves for the trueborns, and one white as Snow. Dragons are black on red.

--or, as others have said, that he's a Stark but not through Ned. His direwolf wasn't with the rest.

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First of all just because a mystery lasts longer than another doesn't mean that the longest lasting mystery is the central mystery to the story, the theme of the story or anything else.

If the mystery of a secret killer's identity is revealed 200 pages from the end, but the mystery of which kid stole the peanut butter is not revealed until the last page of that same novel, I'd still feel like many mysteries prior to that were more involved in the narrative, more central to the theme, more important.

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First of all just because a mystery lasts longer than another doesn't mean that the longest lasting mystery is the central mystery to the story, the theme of the story or anything else.

If the mystery of a secret killer's identity is revealed 200 pages from the end, but the mystery of which kid stole the peanut butter is not revealed until the last page of that same novel, I'd still feel like many mysteries prior to that were more involved in the narrative, more central to the theme, more important.

But if the point of the story is more focused on the secret killer and that is answered with 200 pages left, what's going to keep me reading about the peanut butter unless the reader is able to determine it has a direct impact on the story?

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Ran, I'm really glad you're doing this! Your research is meticulous as usual.

I wonder, though, if people who suggest Wylla or Ashara as candidates for Jon's mother are doing so based on knowledge of people's whereabouts at the time Lyanna's child (if she bore one shortly before Ned found her) had to be conceived. 1) Do people in general know when Jon was born? You offer evidence that it's earlier than the time claimed as his birthdate and show where the crucial cast was during that time--but would people in Westeros be thinking Jon was conceived that early? If they're curious about Jon's origins, might they be considering a period a couple of months later? 2) Do people in general--like Catelyn, Cersei--know exactly where Ned, Ashara, Wylla were during the war? Catelyn may well know where Eddard was if he was writing her--but how would she know Ashara's whereabouts? 3) Is Ashara suggested because Cersei knows where both she and Ned were early in the war, or is it because of the mutual attraction that became evident at Harrenhal? Isn't Robert's belief in Wylla's motherhood (and as far as we know he never met her and probably never knew where she was aside from what Ned said) based on the fact that Ned apparently told him or at least allowed him to believe that she was Jon's mother?

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Shewoman,

I wonder, though, if people who suggest Wylla or Ashara as candidates for Jon's mother are doing so based on knowledge of people's whereabouts at the time Lyanna's child (if she bore one shortly before Ned found her) had to be conceived.

Complete mystery, really. Assuming Ned is lying about Wylla, it would seem strange for him to offer her up as a candidate if she's entirely implausible as Jon's mother -- surely he'd want the story to hold up under at least some level of scrutiny?

1) Do people in general know when Jon was born?

It certainly seems that people in Westeros at large mostly believe that Jon is concieved and born after Robb. The ADwD spoiler I've noted provides the first clear example of someone in Westeros saying that that's not the case at all.

2) Do people in general--like Catelyn, Cersei--know exactly where Ned, Ashara, Wylla were during the war? Catelyn may well know where Eddard was if he was writing her--but how would she know Ashara's whereabouts?

3) Is Ashara suggested because Cersei knows where both she and Ned were early in the war, or is it because of the mutual attraction that became evident at Harrenhal?

We basically know nothing of why Ashara is considered plausible. Is it all just a mix up based on the alleged attraction at Harrenhal, the apparent suicide at the end of the war, and Ned's returning from the south with a child? We're just stuck. The most we can say is that she was not at King's Landing, I think, based on GRRM's remarks.

I find it hard to credit that she would have been in the Vale or the North in the first three months of the war -- areas to which we can pin Ned down to with a high degree of confidence -- but it can't be disproved. After that, well, who knows what she may have been up to, or where Ned was.. Though, I've previously noted that our timeline of the war as the books give it to us suggests a distinct lack of action for Ned Stark -- other than the Battle of the Bells and the Trident, we don't know of _any_ battle during the war in which he played a part.

It seems highly unlikely, given this, that Ned was anywhere but the riverlands during the final months of the war. But perhaps GRRM has some tricks up his sleeve that we're unaware of.

This is a completely separate thing I'm posting here, and I've only given it a cursory glance to see if it fits any new details we picked up in AFfC. It was something written during discussions after ASoS, when I tried to lay out a brief timeline of events. It includes my speculation that Brandon and Benjen returned to the North after the duel with Littlefinger, only to come south again by way of the Vale. It might help sort out some of the details:

  • month 1: Great Tourney at Harrenhall
  • month 1-2: Brandon and Petyr duel at Riverrun, Brandon returns to the North (probably via Seagard and Deepwood Motte)
  • month 3: The wedding party leaves White Harbor.
  • month 4: A leisurely time in the Vale collecting more guests and moving on.
    ---------------------------------------------
    War of the Usurper
  • month 5: Brandon goes ahead, finds Lyanna gone, goes to KL. Messages sent to fathers
  • month 5-6: Deaths of Rickard, Brandon, and others. Aerys demands heads of Ned and Robert, Jon refuses and raises the banners. Ned goes to the North, Robert goes to Storm's End.
  • month 7: Robert reaches Storm's End and calls his banners. Summerhall -- possibly the start date for the war, as the first major battle, but that may in fact have happened earlier in the Vale when some royalists rebelled against the Arryns (GRRM indicates there was fighting in the Vale). The beginnings of the march. Ned reaches Winterfell and marches down.
  • month 8: Ashford. Continuation of the epic march. Siege of Storm's End. Ned south of the Neck, Jon Arryn out of the Vale.
  • month 8-9: Jon Snow conceived, to be born approximately 9 months later.
  • month 9: Battle of the Bells. Rhaegar is called up from "the south" (see Jaime's recounting of the loss) Marriages of Jon and Eddard to Lysa and Cat. Cat pregnant.
  • month 10-17: Gathering of armies again. Battles and skirmishes throughout Westeros but the allied main force seems to stay more-or-less in the Riverlands because, clearly, someone manages to convince Robert that he should wait for the royal army to come to him.
  • month 17-18: Battle of the Trident. Sack of King's Landing. Jon born around this time, give or take a month. Robb probably born as well, given nearness of age between the two. Eddard to Storm's End, then on to tower of joy.
  • month 19: Death of the Kingsguard, death of Lyanna, apparent death of Ashara Dayne.

The one thing I'll note is that I see I put Jon's conception slightly later -- 3-4 months into the war -- but that was with the idea that the war lasted exactly a year, whereas I think probably 'close to a year' really means something like 11 months. In that case, Jon being concieved 2-3 months into the war is likeliest based on what GRRM has stated.

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But if the point of the story is more focused on the secret killer and that is answered with 200 pages left, what's going to keep me reading about the peanut butter unless the reader is able to determine it has a direct impact on the story?

so the killer was revealed, they'd still have to catch him and kill him etc. if you think about it, the revelation of a mystery at some point is there only to develop or further the plot. Eventually, when a central mystery to the story is revealed, the reader is left with another. In this case, now that we know who the killer is, how can we catch him(her). This is really a continuation of the initial mystery, how can we catch the killer, step 1, find out who the killer is or find them in the act blah blah blah there is lots in that to make sense of what I said. However, the final point I can think of is that the identity of the killer might be revealed to the reader, but not to the characters of the story.

The 'mysteriousness' of the mystery keeps one interested and invested, especially if it is central to the story, however there are many good reasons that the mystery be resolved well before the conclusion of the story.

edit: especially if the story has as many threads to be followed to the end. any central mystery to the plot in martin's mind (and for the main protagonist) might not neccessarily be central to the story the reader cares about if that makes sense. some people might not even like jon. with a story of so many tengential characters, its possible the main protagonists be the least liked and still find enjoyment, although i have a hard time agreeing with people who would tell me Sam, Jamie, and Brienne are the most interesting LOL.

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If Ned did fall in love with Ashara and then have to marry Catelyn to seal the Tully alliance, then I would expect him to be protective of his lost love's honor . . . especially if she is now dead. Another reason for his rage when Catelyn asks about Ashara is that he doesn't want to lie to her.

But that doesn't explain why he wanted her to never mention Ashara's name again. A simple "No, Ashara Dayne is not Jon's mother" would do just fine.

--I don't think Ned EVER sowed rumors about Ashara. I think Wylla is the "fall woman" for the role of Jon's mother

Well, I meant the rumors about his having abandoned his honor to father a bastard more than anything really Ashara-specific. But there's really no need for any fall woman. All he has to say when asked is, "It doesn't matter, Jon's mother is dead. I'd prefer not to name her, to preserve her honor." It'll even be true.

Thomaswhigham, in the peanut butter analogy the second mystery is concurrent, it doesn't develop out of the solution to the murder. So there still has to be some way the peanut butter ties into the homicide, or as Greywolf pointed out, why keep reading about it?

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But that doesn't explain why he wanted her to never mention Ashara's name again. A simple "No, Ashara Dayne is not Jon's mother" would do just fine.

However, having once answered one of his wife's questions about Jon's parentage, even a negative one, she is gong to keep at him for ever after with more questions. If he does want to keep it a secret, brutally shutting her up is the only realistic way to go about it. As is quashing speculation going around his own men.

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Ran, thanks for the timeline.

Silent Speak: Ned doesn't tell Cat never to mention Ashara's name again; he tells her "Never ask me about Jon" and asks where she heard Ashara's name mentioned; after that the whispering stops. A's name is never mentioned again in Winterfell (GoT -p. 64, US paperback).

I agree with "a wildling"; it's easier to refuse to discuss an issue at all than it is to discuss it once and THEN say it's off limits.

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My biggest objections to R+L=J are as follows:

1. It trivializes the character development of Ned Stark by making him a cardboard caricature of Honor, in much the same way it lends itself toward making Rhaegar a cardboard caricature of Noble. This was the big stain on his honor, that he fathered a bastard. Don't take that away from him. It also lends itself toward romanticizing Rhaegar and Lyanna (OMG Rhaegar was a Special Noble Person he wouldn't do such a thing it must have been sekritly WOMANCE) but since it doesn't necessarily have to do so, I won't list that as a separate fatal objection.

I just wanna comment on this part.

First off, I agree with what others said about Ned's character building being all about his honor and the price he pays for it.

Second, I think there's more to this plotline than the price of honor, it's the price being paid for trying to do the right thing. Ned tries to hide the Baby from robert, takes it as a stain on his own honor, and raises Jon as his own son to take the best care of him. He could've just hidden the baby and not tell anyone about it. This story only ends when Robb loses his war and his life because he refused to father a bastard. Ironic, isn't it?

As for Rhaegar, it seems to me that the whole act was very far from Noble. He sacrificed his nobility and honor for the sake of his prophecy. Well, one doesn't go from very noble to suicidal lunatic in a few days.

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Pardon the length of the post, but I’m new here and would like to throw my thoughts into the discussion. Let me say, after reading through this thread and the one that preceded it, that it looks like people have very set opinions on this matter and have done extensive reading and re-reading of the texts over the so-called “L+R=J†debate. I am a comparative novice as I’m only in my second read of the series, and I freely admit I didn’t pick up on my own the possibility of Lyanna being Jon’s mother and Rhaegar being his father (the good folks over at the Tower of the Hand let me in on this idea.) What was clear in my first read was that something of vital importance to the story was behind Ned’s promise to Lyanna; it was also very unlikely that the resting place for her body had anything to do with it. Lastly, it was abundantly clear that the confrontation at the Tower of Joy was a critical back-story in the series. Anyway, here are my thoughts about the various permutations in this wonderful mystery surrounding Jon, Rhaegar, and Lyanna.

First, the idea that Jon is the bastard son of Eddard Stark and Wylla is, to me, the least likely possibility. It is true that Ned says this to Robert and the young lord Ned Dayne says the same to Arya, and it therefore has the virtue of having at least some of the characters believing this is true. However, about the only thing going for this theory is the application of Occam’s Razor to the story. It is the most simple and straightforward explanation, so why not accept it? In the real world this is an important principal of science and logic, but in the world of unraveling of fictional mysteries it makes for very, very poor writing. Imagine the Maltese Falcon in which Brigid O’Shaughnessy really was just looking for her lost sister and the idea of gang of cutthroat treasure hunters searching for a mysterious black bird is really just a red herring. That is about what Ned and Wylla as Jon’s parents would mean for our story.

Admittedly this relies on a estimate of the author’s skills rather than what is in the text, but it also just doesn’t get us anywhere in the telling of the story. What is one of the great unsolved questions of the series becomes no question at all. The identity of Jon’s mother, despite all the clues laid out for us to follow, becomes unimportant and a waste of time. If so, this is not a new twist in fiction writing, it is just bad writing - which is something I don’t think Martin has shown us.

Now, it is possible that Martin could make Wylla into a mother who has some importance to the story, but I think, at this point, it would be a little like the scene in Monty Python’s Life of Brian when the alien spaceship arrives just in the nick of time to save Brian for a fall to his death. It worked in comedy as a crazy unexpected surrealistic aside to the plot, but its equivalent doesn’t work in a work of High Fantasy that needs an intriguing and coherent story. What would we imagine Wylla as to further our story than simply Jon's mother? I would suggest nothing fits in this scenario.

That does not mean Wylla as one of only characters who knows the truth of Jon’s parentage won’t be important; it only means that a scenario of her as his mother would make no sense for plot development.

The second and more likely possibility of Jon being the bastard son of Ned Stark and Ashara Dayne is still lacking because, while it does have the virtue of giving a compelling story of romance between Ashara and Ned, it presumes timing problems are overcome outside the evidence so far. Jon is too young to be the child of the Harrenhal tourney and we have no evidence to suggest the two got together in the midst of Robert’s Rebellion to conceive a child. To accept this possibility either Jon’s age is a lie or Ned not only conceived a bastard child with Ashara, he probablly did so after he had married Catelyn and conceived a child with her. This is very unlike the honorable, indeed honorable to a fault, Ned we get to know in A Game of Thrones. Still, it is possible.

Yet if Jon’s mother is the deceased Ashara Dayne, why is it such a secret that Ned feels he must frighten his wife into never speaking of it again. Is Ned trying to cover a stain on his honor? If so, then why would he bring Jon to Winterfell in the first place? Is he trying to prevent a stain on Ashara’s honor? More likely, but we are dealing with a different culture in Dorne in which bastard children and the women who give birth to them are looked at very differently than the rest of Westeros. More over it presumes a cruel streak in Ned in his secrecy with Jon about his mother’s identity for which we have no reason given. It would make some sense for Ned to refuse to speak of Ashara with anyone else, but why not with Jon? Certainly a dead Ashara Dayne poses no threat to Ned and Catelyn's marriage, and a promise to keep Jon's origins a secret fits more into the story. In short, there seems to be much more to this mystery than can be explained by this scenario.

Which brings us to the actual thread topic. If Lyanna and Rheagar are lovers (married or unmarried) who are the parents of Jon Snow it brings together many of the unsolved questions in the books. We know who Jon’s mother is (and also who is his real father,) we likely know what is the nature of Ned’s promise to Lyanna on her deathbed, and we likely know the puzzle of why the three members of the King’s Guard are at the Tower of Joy. It also provides one solution as to the identity of the “prince who was promised†or the new “Azor Ahai,†the prophesied savior in the war against the Others. It is neat and utilizes a very old and very successful motif in myth and legends (going back at least to Moses, the Persian Empire, and others) of the unrecognized and hidden prince arising in a time of crises to lead his people to salvation from impending doom. It is a solution to each of the mysteries that advances the story in very important ways. Nothing in the text would make this scenario impossible, so what’s the problem? The problem is that, we are told by no less authority than Martin’s significant other, Parris, that it is too obvious.

Now I’m not sure what “too obvious†means, because it wasn’t obvious to me. I also don’t think it is too obvious to the hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of Martin’s readers who don’t frequent web sites such as this one. I think “obvious†only qualifies as an adjective for those who have spent many hours debating the possibility of Jon’s parentage. It makes much more sense to write for the millions of readers than for the thousands here.

Still, perhaps there is more to this scenario than what is proposed by the formula “L+R=J.†I like the possibility of a “L+R=J+†solution to our little mystery. While this can be reduced and ridiculed, as it was in the first thread, as a “Luke and Leia†scenario, I think there is more here than that. First, I wonder why after Jon’s birth at the Tower of Joy Ned would continue south to Starfell with his precious and secret cargo instead of heading north to Winterfell? We are told that he returns Arthur Dayne’s sword and we are also led to believe by Ashara’s death that perhaps Ned has gone to tell her of his marriage. However, it has been quite sometime since Ned was married (at least a little over nine months) and it is unlikely that the Elia's former handmaid does not know about some of the events surrounding the war.

The marriage pact of Ned to Catelyn and Jon Arryn to Lysa is not a small private event. This is a political alliance that shapes the opposition against Aerys’ rule. Can Ashara not know about it already? If she does, then is the return of the Ser Arthur’s sword, as awe inspiring as it is, enough to explain why Ned goes to Starfell?

Perhaps the reason is that there is a second child, a fraternal twin to Jon, who has all the traits of a Targaryen? If Eddard shows up in Winterfell with such a child, his ability to hide its true parentage is highly suspect. Indeed there is only one place in all of Westeros that such a child could be raised without raising suspicion from the new regime in King’s Landing. That place is Starfell, among a family who carries some of the same traits as the Targaryens. And by luck we may have just such a individual in the person of Ser Gerold Dayne, the Darkstar. The Darkstar has the silver hair of the Targaryens and he also would fit the role of a “anti-Jon†who,perhaps knowing his heritage, is set on revenge. Thus his attempt on Myrcella’s life. He may also carry another famous trait of the Targaryens - madness. For this to be true Ser Gerold must obviously be the same age as Jon and as yet I can’t find any mention of how old he is in the text. Anyway I throw it out as a possibility not yet debated in this thread (I’m sorry I haven’t read through the archived discussions.)

Another possibility for the Darkstar is as Aegon, the possibly long lost son of Rheagar and Elia. In this crackpot variation, Aegon could have been switched with a Dayne child to safeguard the heir to the throne. Unfortunately a bastard child of Ned and Ashara, conceived at the Harrenhal tourney, might fit the timeline for such a child and would more adequately explain Ashara’s suicide. Here Ned would travel south to deliver the horrible news of their child’s brutal death at the hand of Ser Gregor. I find this scenario unlikely, but still possible not knowing the Darkstar’s age. No matter how crackpot the last two scenarios are, one thing that must be said of them is that they are not too obvious while maintaining the virtues of what “L+R=J†does for Martin’s wonderful series.

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SFDanny,

It also provides one solution as to the identity of the “prince who was promised” or the new “Azor Ahai,” the prophesied savior in the war against the Others.

I suppose... but I believe it was settled by Maester Aemon, who believes (rightly, I think) that Dany is the Prince who was Promised. Jon is almost certainly one of the heads of the dragon, however.

The problem is that, we are told by no less authority than Martin’s significant other, Parris, that it is too obvious.

No we aren't. ;) You're referring to this. She answered the question with another question, which is a very different thing from actually telling us something. The answer to her question could indeed be, "Yes."

Parris has been known to be playful with the fans. I think she's also happy to mess with our heads, because she knows we eat it up. ;) You may need to meet her to really get this, however. I do agree with you that this theory is not as obvious as detractors claim. It's well-accepted in this community and a few others, but there are people out there who really don't know even after reading four books. In fact, I suspect the majority of the readership hasn't even considered the possibility.

I wonder why after Jon’s birth at the Tower of Joy Ned would continue south to Starfall

The most common theory is that Jon was born at the tower, but was not there when Ned arrived, having been spirited away to Starfall while Lyanna proved unable to be moved from the ultimately fatal childbed fever.

If she does, then is the return of the Ser Arthur’s sword, as awe inspiring as it is, enough to explain why Ned goes to Starfell?

Starfall. :) And yes, I'd say so, though obviously I think there are other motives in his going. Ned admired Dayne, and given that he was heir to an heirloom sword as well -- and an honorable man -- I could see him personally returning Dawn to its rightful owners.

Finally, I'd say that Darkstar is pretty clearly older than Jon/Aegon, a fully adult man -- it's been suggested he may even have been roughly of an age with Arthur Dayne (given his dislike of him, which some read as personal), which would put him into the early 40's. My guess is that he's at least in his late 20's, and probably in his 30's. Aegon (were he alive) would be ~17-19 at this time.

If Darkstar were Jon's age, we would have been told this by someone -- he would have been called a youth, or it would have been remarked (note how often Loras Tyrell, another dangerous young knight, is so often associated with his youth).

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Ran,

thanks for the thoughtful and informative response. I'm going to keep my mind open to the many possibilities for the forth coming books, but I agree the Daenerys as the PwwP makes a lot of sense - I'm just not ruling out Jon. I'm also sticking to my crackpot ideas about Darkstar and who he might really be, at least until his age is verified and blows my suggested scenarios out of the water. Let me add one more.

It seems very likely that Lyanna would have had a maester (and a wetnurse - Wylla?) with her if she is expecting a child. I've been looking for who this might be, and at the same time considering the reason Jaqen H'gar would be in the citadel in Oldtown. Could it be the two are related? Someone (Littlefinger?) is searching for a maester, who may have delivered a Targaryen heir or at least is informed that a maester was with Lyanna at the end, in order to silence him, gather more information, and/or find and kill the heir? I'm a firm believer in the idea that Littlefinger is playing the "Game of Thrones" to put himself in power and that means eliminating any serious claimant. I also think he has embezzled a fortune to, among other things, pay for faceless men to assassinate targets he thinks may get in his way (Balon Greyjoy and perhaps Varys?) If my speculation is correct then the likelihood is that the maester's identity is still unknown and Jaqen is looking for verification of his target. Marwyn seems the most likely candidate.

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Ran, I think the article looks great. Thanks for the link.

SFDanny, I agree that Ned + Wylla makes little sense. Any theory of Jon's parentage has to explain (in addition to his Stark looks and Ned's claiming fatherhood) why Ned won't reveal the mother's identity when his silence causes such problems in his own family and how it happened that he returned to Winterfell from the South with Jon.

I agree that there was probably a wet nurse at ToJ and that it was probably Wylla (she obviously has some connection to the whole thing which must be explained if she's not Jon's mother). I don't know about a Maester; Rhaegar seems to have wanted to be as secretive as possible about this whole thing since he took Lyanna somewhere off the beaten track and for a Maester to vanish for several months would surely have attracted attention.

I'm hoping Jon isn't a twin. I quite like Star Wars but that doesn't mean I want a replica of it. If Ran's right and Darkstar's too old to be a candidate for Jontwin, and if you're right that this twin has the Targ look, there are an annoying lack of known candidates. Aegon, if alive, would be 9-12 months older than Jon--not an insurmountable obstacle but still an issue. Ned Dayne is several years too young and I can't remember if he inherited the similar-to-Targs Dayne look anyway. The only non-Dayne I can think of who might fit is what's-his-face--Daario?--whom Dany runs into in Storm of Swords.

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SFDanny, I agree that Ned + Wylla makes little sense. Any theory of Jon's parentage has to explain (in addition to his Stark looks and Ned's claiming fatherhood) why Ned won't reveal the mother's identity when his silence causes such problems in his own family and how it happened that he returned to Winterfell from the South with Jon.
Thanks, for your response and in this regard we certainly agree.

I agree that there was probably a wet nurse at ToJ and that it was probably Wylla (she obviously has some connection to the whole thing which must be explained if she's not Jon's mother). I don't know about a Maester; Rhaegar seems to have wanted to be as secretive as possible about this whole thing since he took Lyanna somewhere off the beaten track and for a Maester to vanish for several months would surely have attracted attention.

My thinking is that Rhaegar knows Lyanna is pregnant with his child and is very unlikely to risk her or the child's health through not taking the precaution of having this world's equivalent of a competent doctor on hand. Unless there is some unexpected event that takes place that makes it impossible for this to happen it would be a normal part of the birth of any aristocrat, indeed all of Catelyn and Ned's children are delivered by Maester Luwin (AGOT p.52,) and this would most especially be true of a royal heir. Now, I take your point that secrecy is important for Rheagar and Lyanna, but is it logical to assume that Lyanna is left to birth her children on her own? A wet nurse would not be of much help and it is probable to assume a midwife or a maester would be on hand, if at all possible.

I'm hoping Jon isn't a twin. I quite like Star Wars but that doesn't mean I want a replica of it. If Ran's right and Darkstar's too old to be a candidate for Jontwin, and if you're right that this twin has the Targ look, there are an annoying lack of known candidates. Aegon, if alive, would be 9-12 months older than Jon--not an insurmountable obstacle but still an issue. Ned Dayne is several years too young and I can't remember if he inherited the similar-to-Targs Dayne look anyway. The only non-Dayne I can think of who might fit is what's-his-face--Daario?--whom Dany runs into in Storm of Swords.

While I'm not much of a Star Wars fan, I don't object to similar motifs being used in other stories, as long as it isn't done in a clumsy manner or is a simple rip off of the Lucas' rather simple story. I don't think Martin is going to do any of that. My thoughts on why Martin might go in this direction has more to do with clues in the story and behavior of some of the characters. Specifically, that the Dayne family is the only family in all of Westeros that share with the Targaryens unique physical traits, that Ned goes directly to Starfall - the seat of house Dayne - after his confrontation at the Tower of Joy and his conversation with the dying Lyanna, that there is at least one character we know of who could fit the description of a secret Targaryan child with Targaryan traits, the actions of that character (Darkstar) show a particular hatred for at least one member of the usurper's family, and lastly, the suicide death of Ashara Dayne has never set well with me unless there is more to it.

I'm fully aware that these ideas are quite possibly just crackpot musings. But I thought it worthwhile to throw into the discussion. Thanks for taking the time to respond to them.

The most common theory is that Jon was born at the tower, but was not there when Ned arrived, having been spirited away to Starfall while Lyanna proved unable to be moved from the ultimately fatal childbed fever.

Ran, if this is the case, why are all the remaining King's Guard (aside from the Ser Barriston and Jaime) at the Tower of Joy when Eddard and company arrive? If Lyanna is still there and dying, I can see one or two staying, but not one travels with the new heir(s) to the throne? I like the idea of returning Ser Arthur's sword much better.

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  • month 17-18: Battle of the Trident. Sack of King's Landing. Jon born around this time, give or take a month. Robb probably born as well, given nearness of age between the two. Eddard to Storm's End, then on to tower of joy.
  • month 19: Death of the Kingsguard, death of Lyanna, apparent death of Ashara Dayne.

I always assumed Lyanna's bed of blood was from dying right after childbirth... If your timeline here is correct, than L+R=J is false (by a month or two).

ETA: MY sister in law had complications during her first birth (bleeding). If not for being in a modern hospital, she would've died within hours.

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It's an approximation. But besides this, I note that it's give-or-take for Jon's birth date, and really the events listed as 'month 19' could just as well be 'month 18' as well. For that matter, an event happening in 'month 18' could be at the end of that month, while the events of 'month 19' could be right at the beginning.

So, it's an approximation. I think it's fair to say that if the theory is correct, that Jon was born no more than three weeks prior to Lyanna's death.

It's noted that Lyanna died from a fever (this is what Ned thinks to himself), rather than from immediate blood loss. See earlier discussions of puerperal fever (aka childbed fever) that can lead to death days or even weeks after the childbirth. One symptom is abnormal vaginal bleeding, the blood generally foul due to sepsis.

SFDanny,

Specifically, that the Dayne family is the only family in all of Westeros that share with the Targaryens unique physical traits,

Untrue. The Velaryons do.

At the Event Horizon chat, I asked GRRM if the Daynes were of Targaryen or Valyrian lineage due to their appearance, and he basically responded that they were neither of Valyrian or Targaryen descent.

I do think it leaves open the possibility that they are of proto-Valyrian descent, though. ;)

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