AGOT MAFIA 46

[House Mooton]

I'm not convinced that the Kingmaker revealing is a good idea. It could definately help in the later stages of the game but right now they'd just be putting themselves out as a target. Just because the Kingmaker wasn't killed in the last game doesn't mean they won't be killed this game - an exposed innocent seems like quite the temptation for the FM especially seeing as there aren't any all-powerful good roles.

Kingmaker - keep your ass hidden.

[House Thorne]

I'm not convinced that the Kingmaker revealing is a good idea.

What's your response to the fact that, if the Kingmaker is killed, he is simply replaced? A new roleless innocent is given the role.

You don't see the appeal of having a constant CI in the game?

[House Connington]

I meant to comment about the KM reveiling earlie but go distracted by RL.

If the KM reveals, I would hope he would have some sort of proof, like a post where he named the next king. Then when the new KotD is revealed, he can prove that he is indeed the KM. (all happening after the day has started, oc course)

[House Thorne]

I meant to comment about the KM reveiling earlie but go distracted by RL.

If the KM reveals, I would hope he would have some sort of proof, like a post where he named the next king. Then when the new KotD is revealed, he can prove that he is indeed the KM. (all happening after the day has started, oc course)

Why do you think an evil player would fake reveal as KM? They can be countered by the real KM at no cost. And there will always be a real KM to counterclaim - its not as if the fake could hope that he had already been killed. A fake claimant would be signing his own death warrant - he'd either be lynched right then, or he'd get the real KM lynched, and then he'd be lynched the next day after the CF revealed that the real KM was innocent. There wouldn't even be any benefit, because the real KM would just be replaced.

Meaning that it's doubtful that we'll ever get a fake claimant, unless we are in end-game (a situation I talked about in an earlier post).

[House Mooton]

What's your response to the fact that, if the Kingmaker is killed, he is simply replaced? A new roleless innocent is given the role.

You don't see the appeal of having a constant CI in the game?

I guess it would depend on who is Kingmaker.

Right now I don't see much of an advantage in knowing the name of one CI/PI when there's still a lot of people in the game... in the later stages of the game when numbers begin to matter more, definitely. Unless pressed with an execution I think the KM should stay silent for now.

[House Wythers]

I meant to comment about the KM reveiling earlie but go distracted by RL.

If the KM reveals, I would hope he would have some sort of proof, like a post where he named the next king. Then when the new KotD is revealed, he can prove that he is indeed the KM. (all happening after the day has started, oc course)

Hmm, just make sure it isn't too obvious. Would let the FM's know who is going to be king, and that's something they can use to their advantage. Plenty of ways that can be coded though, as long as it's done carefully.

[House Frey]

I hope when you come back you'll tell us why J. Lo is your top suspect. I hate being kept in suspense.

Congrats! I changed my mind! I was trying to figure out who my other suspect was (I keep getting the female celebs mixed up, and I keep forgetting Elton John exists) and then I re-read a bit and figured out it was you!

Why? Yeah, I know I was questioning Mariah earlier, but I don't buy your case on her at all. Who was it that said you were acting middle-of-the-road and opportunistic yesterday? I agree with that person. I feel like the case on Mariah is a total cop-out.

However...

I feel like you could potentially be the Kingmaker. If you're the one, can you tell me so I can spend a little time reformulating my suspicions? I don't want to waste my time here. Unlike Christina, I still think the Kingmaker should reveal. First of all, there are no cons, only pros. JBJ has outlined them well. Secondly, if we have a one-shot finder, and they investigate someone tonight, it would be a waste if they happened to investigate the game's one CI.

[House Wythers]

Congrats! I changed my mind! I was trying to figure out who my other suspect was (I keep getting the female celebs mixed up, and I keep forgetting Elton John exists) and then I re-read a bit and figured out it was you!

Why? Yeah, I know I was questioning Mariah earlier, but I don't buy your case on her at all. Who was it that said you were acting middle-of-the-road and opportunistic yesterday? I agree with that person. I feel like the case on Mariah is a total cop-out.

First of all, no one said that about me yesterday, it was about Cher. Secondly, a cop-out of what? I said yesterday I was worried about Cher, but before I could do a re-read of her, J-lo made a case. The point of my post wasn't to make an indictment case of Mariah. Rather, it was a presenting of behavior I found suspicious, so that I and maybe some others wouldn't get locked in on just one case.

[Kat]

Dammit.

[House Frey]

First of all, no one said that about me yesterday, it was about Cher. Secondly, a cop-out of what? I said yesterday I was worried about Cher, but before I could do a re-read of her, J-lo made a case. The point of my post wasn't to make an indictment case of Mariah. Rather, it was a presenting of behavior I found suspicious, so that I and maybe some others wouldn't get locked in on just one case.

I told you I get the female stars mixed up. My re-read of you definitely read as 'middle of the road', so I guess I must have been thinking of my previous thoughts, not someone else's.

I dunno. I still think Mariah was one of the easiest people to find suspicious behavior in. She definitely goes against the grain. I guess she's the type of person I like to have on hold when I'm evil, because if I don't have anything else to say and I need to post something, well, there's generally someone like Mariah around.

So basically, you're acting the way I do when I'm evil, and therefore I find you suspicious.

[House Mooton]

Let's not all talk at once shall we?

I hope night ends soon.

[House Wythers]

I told you I get the female stars mixed up. My re-read of you definitely read as 'middle of the road', so I guess I must have been thinking of my previous thoughts, not someone else's.

Strangely enough, my re-read of you was pretty middle of the road too, but not overly suspicious. I play more based on logic, rather than gut-feelings, so if I can't find anything on someone, I just make a note and read them again later.

I dunno. I still think Mariah was one of the easiest people to find suspicious behavior in. She definitely goes against the grain. I guess she's the type of person I like to have on hold when I'm evil, because if I don't have anything else to say and I need to post something, well, there's generally someone like Mariah around.

So she was easy to find suspicious behavior in, and I go to the top of your list because I called her on it? I mean, going by your own logic, I should have kept her on hold, because I don't think I really had a need to post something, did I? I wasn't under any pressure, until now that is.

So basically, you're acting the way I do when I'm evil, and therefore I find you suspicious.

Well, fair enough there. Pot and kettle and all that?

[House Wythers]

Ok boring people, see you in the morning.

[House Pommingham]

Just spent 1.5 hours on the phone with AT+T tech support to be finally told that the problem was not my modem but that they are having a "service event in my area."

I'm catching up on the thread but won't be up for much longer.

[House Pommingham]

I don't particularly like to hash out cases during night when the NK will likely change the focus anyway.

I will try to check in first thing tomorrow but I have serious RL commitments early so that may not be possible.

[House Baratheon]

decided she liked the idea of a random lynch,

You definitely should understand the difference between "random lynch" and "random no-voter lynch".

Doesn't really give an answer.

Yeah? I thought Jacko was satisfied with my answer.

I don't know if she was talking about my alt or the way I post, but I find it strange that if she wanted the king to lynch me, she didn't vote for me, and instead left a dangling vote on Springsteen based on nothing.

It had nothing to do with you. You aren't guilty that Hoff gave you name of Madonna. I definitely didn't want you to be lyched... though I won't object this either.

Maybe her contributions on day 2 will be a little more substantial.

Still night...

[House Mooton]

Well nothing's really happening here. I'll be back tomorrow. Same Christina time. Same Christina channel.

[House Targaryen]

After a long, drug-free (for most of you) night, morning arrives.

There is a bit of a mess in the corner where Jacko was singing Beat It while thinking about Britney and Christina Bitch being on The New Mickey Mouse Club.

Elton John is still trying to play with Eminem's dynamite, Eminem isn't having any of it though as he's trying to find Mariah's pot of gold.

Once you realize that sunlight is streaming in through the windows again (and that it doesn't bother you - not being hungover), you look around to find that:

SPOILER: death

Christina Aguilera (Halo/Demoniac) has been fired because her test has been positive.

You also see the J Lo has a shiny gold crown on her brow (she is todays King).

It is day, 12 players remain: Britney Spears, Bruce Springsteen, Cher, Elton John, Eminem, Gwen Stefani, Jennifer Lopez, Jon Bon Jovi, Madonna, Mariah Carey, Michael Jackson and Michael Stipe.

[House Thorne]

Okay, clearly 1 of 2 things happened last night. Either:

1) The FM forgot to send in their night action; or

2) The FM targeted the Drug Veteran (bullet-proof)

Option 1 requires me to believe that the FM are complete morons. Or that they consist of a combination of...maybe Gwen Stefani and Britney Spears? Some pair that is completely uninterested and/or uncoordinated? It seems fairly unlikely. The only point in favor of this option is that night lasted the full 8 hours. But there are other explanations that could account for that. Maybe some other roled player forgot to send in his night action. Or forgot that he even had to send one in (i.e. Finder or Martyr didn't realize that he had to send in a PM, even if he wasn't taking any action). Maybe the mods just weren't around to end night on time. Who knows.

Bottom line is that Option 1 is possible, but unlikely.

Option 2 is much more realistic. Which brings me to my decision. I'm going to reveal my role. I'm the Drug Veteran.

It really shouldn't be a surprising revelation to anybody who was paying attention to how I was playing on Day 1. I made certain that I was the center of attention. I was extremely aggressive. I indicated that I am an experienced player. I did everything possible to make the FM see that I was a threat.

Well, there was a reason for all of that. I was trying to draw the night kill. So that I could buy us an extra day in the game. Now, we should have an extra lynch...which could be huge for us, in our effort to win the game.

So I think my plan to draw the night kill probably worked. The only problem now is that the FM now know my role, and they know that my power is used up. Leaving me with the decision of whether or not I should reveal.

If the FM targeted me last night, then I can't see any downside to me revealing. Better to get the information out there, than to keep it secret. More importantly, I CAN see an upside to revealing. If the FM know my role, and they know its used up, and they don't see me reveal the role, then they could just kill me, get me out of the way, and have one of them reveal my role. Become a PI, and lead the innocents to a loss. I think it's important for me to cut off that possibility right now.

The only problem, of course, is tied back into the Option 1 that I mentioned at the start of the post. What if the FM just forgot to send in their kill? What if I still have my power? If thats the case, then I'm basically neutralizing my power by revealing it. Which is certainly not what I want to do.

My response is...yeah, it's bad if I create a situation where my power will never be used. But its not as bad in this scenario as it would be in most other conditions. 1) I'd be CI, and I'd be unkillable (unless the FM want to spend 2 nights trying to get rid of me, in which case, my power ends up being used after all), and 2) in that situation, we've already gained a day due to the FM's incompetence, and the outcome is exactly the same as if I had been targeted...so there isn't much of a loss. Yeah, we'd lose a chance to gain a 2nd day, but at least we will have gained one, either way.

Anyway, like I said before, I think Option 1 is unlikely. To the point where I think the greatest concern is preventing the FM from fake revealing my role later in the game, once I am already dead and won't be able to counterclaim.

Now, onto the other issue at hand. I would have preferred to not reveal immediately, and spend the day provoking people and asking a whole lot of questions. If I was targeted, then 2 of the other players would have known my secret. And I would have known that they knew....leading to an interesting game of cat and mouse. I can't be certain that they would have messed up, but it's certainly possible that it would have been difficult for them to treat me the same way as they had before, knowing that I was secretly the bulletproof player, and that they had failed in trying to kill me the night before.

Unfortunately, I am going to be offline for almost all of tomorrow. I have to be out of my office from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. central time - all day. And then I have a work holiday party until about 10 p.m. I'm going to be able to check in very briefly in the morning, and then again 14+ hours later, before I go to sleep. I'm not going to be around to participate much. So it's fairly unrealistic for me to expect to catch anybody in the type of trap that I'd love to set for the FM.

I am going to make one request. I'd like it for J-Lo to hold off on ending the day until Thursday. I know the delay would suck, but as the only CI currently in the game (and yeah, I do think you should consider me to be CI after all of this), I do think it's important for me to weigh in on the events of the day before it ends. I'll try to provide an in-depth opinion on Wednesday night (central time), but I can't make any promises....I'm probably going to be pretty tired. And J-Lo's time pattern indicates that she'll be offline by then anyway. If we can hold the end of the day off until Thursday morning, or even Thursday afternoon, then I'll be able to contribute much more than if we decide to end the day in 24 hours.

[House Sunglass]

Wow, this is a lot for me to assimilate. I think I can agree that JBJ is at least VPI for the moment, while other people are decidedly less so. I still think that Mariah is the most suspiscious of the bunch, since her comments were basically an attempt to get a two-day pass, something that I absolutely despise. Cher is, and always has been, a cantidate for an FM, as I believe I said earlier in the game. Her middle of the road non-confrontational play is absolutely typical of the blend-in style FM. I'm also getting a feeling that something is off about Jacko, although I haven't had time to go through his posts in detail like the other two. J-Lo's posting and general attitude make me think her more as an innocent than an FM, especially after the recurring spat with JBJ. She strikes me as a moderately agressive player acting based on facts rather than feelings and has had no problem putting her thoughts and feelings right out for all to see, things I'm not used to seeing in a FM.

So, after all that, Mariah once more earns my vote and my ire.

Finally: I agree, JBJ, revealing was the best option for you at this point in time. If nothing else, you had to reveal today or risk being NKed tomorrow night and having the FM claim your role, which would have been highly unfortunate. I doubt that staying unrevealed would have helped you gain any answers, as if the FM did use their kill on you last night they would know you are the BP and act accordingly.