Character Ages

[Lady Blackfish]

[quote name='Other-in-law' post='1551728' date='Oct 10 2008, 17.32']As of aGoT, I take it? The 3 or so years of the series come into play for the surviving characters.[/quote]
Yep during AGOT, when Ned is said to be thirty-five (AGOT Bran I). What I meant is that he can't be in his thirties yet, even in AFFC.

[Fireball07]

Sorry, wrong person.

It was Jaime who was around 32 or 33 in one of the books, and Tyrion is 8 years younger [I think], which would make him around 24 or 25.

I don't have the books with me so I can't be positive but I think it's something like that.

[Ran]

Jaime is 34 as of AFfC, I am about 99.5% certain. This makes Tyrion 24-25 as of AFfC.

[Jon Targaryen]

[url="http://p094.ezboard.com/How-Old-is-Everyone/fasoiaffrm6.showMessage?topicID=5.topic"]Here[/url] is a thread that may help, though there is not much as analysis as this one.

[SFDanny]

[quote name='Ran' post='1552250' date='Oct 11 2008, 12.00']Jaime is 34 as of AFfC, I am about 99.5% certain. This makes Tyrion 24-25 as of AFfC.[/quote]

I agree with the first - if you mean he and Cersei turn 34 in year 300, but I'm still trying to figure the way to prove it. I can show it works with all the clues I assemble, but haven't been able to rule out other possibilities - actually one other possibility. With Tyrion, he is 23 at a minimum in AGoT, so your estimate pushes the absolute limit of how young he is in 300. I think I have him at a year older than your estimate. I'll have a look and I'll post what I have later tonight or tomorrow. Perhaps together we can see something that the other is missing.

Thanks, JT. I've seen the thread before, but it's always useful to go over other people's work for any help available.

[Lady Blackfish]

[quote name='SFDanny' post='1539546' date='Oct 1 2008, 22.37']Now, we often guess that Ned’s age is thirty-five in the Year 298 after Aegon’s conquest, and therefore by simple subtraction he was born in Year 263. Right? Well, if Ned has a name day after we are told he is thirty-five but still in Year 298, then he was born in 262. If at the time we are told Ned’s age it is not Year 298, then everything is screwed up.[/quote]

I think you have demonstrated well that AGOT starts in 298, given Joffrey's age, timing of name day relative to the series' start, and wedding date. I would say that Ned has turned 35 in 298, and therefore was born in 263, for the following reasons (apologies in advance for the fact that I'm probably taking the long way here, but I'm slightly inebriated and it is 1:30 AM, I can only hope this isn't useless):

We know that Ned is 35 when the direwolves are found (AGOT p14 US PB) -- in 298 (deduced upthread).
We know that Petyr is shy of thirty when Catelyn arrives at King's Landing (AGOT p172 US PB) -- in 298 (deduced upthread).
We know that when Brandon Stark was 20, Petyr Baelish was scarcely 15 (AGOT p167 US PB).
We know that pregnancies in Westeros last 9 months (AGOT p695 US PB).

This means that the numerical difference between Brandon and Petyr's age needs to be able to be 5 at some point. The difference between Brandon's and Petyr's ages is thus [i]at most[/i] on a 5-6 year swing, and the difference between Ned's and Petyr's ages cannot be any greater since Ned is younger than Brandon. Thus Ned cannot have turned 36 by the time we are told Petyr is 29, so he is still 35 when Catelyn arrives at King's Landing. This means that the difference between Ned's and Petyr's ages is on a 5-6 year swing as well; Ned and Brandon are born between 9 and 12 months of each other.


Let's pretend Brandon had lived. We need to sequence Brandon's, Ned's, and Petyr's birthdays (regardless of the calendar, just talking about the pure sequence here). Is it Ned-Petyr-Brandon-Ned-Petyr-Brandon-etc, or Ned-Brandon-Petyr-Ned-Brandon-Petyr-etc?

It cannot be the latter --[indent]{1} Ned turns 35, Petyr is 29, Brandon is 35
{2} Ned is 35, Petyr is 29, Brandon turns 36
{3} Ned is 35, Petyr turns 30, Brandon is 36[/indent]-- because then the numerical difference between Brandon's and Petyr's ages is never 5, and we know it has to be at some point.

So it is the former --[indent]{A} Ned turns 35, Petyr is 29, Brandon is 35
{B} Ned is 35, Petyr turns 30, Brandon is 35
{C} Ned is 35, Petyr turns 30, Brandon turns 36[/indent]-- and this way we can accommodate a numerical gap of 6 for Ned and Petyr, and a numerical gap of 5 for Brandon and Petyr (as the cited facts require).


Now we need to figure out which do and don't happen in 298. Brandon is at least 9 months older than Ned, so there is at most 3 months between {A} and {C}. Let's expand the sequence:[indent]{a} Ned turns 34, Petyr is 28, Brandon is 34
{b} Ned is 34, Petyr turns 29, Brandon is 34
{c} Ned is 34, Petyr is 29, Brandon turns 35
{d} Ned turns 35, Petyr is 29, Brandon is 35
{e} Ned is 35, Petyr turns 30, Brandon is 35
{f} Ned is 35, Petyr is 30, Brandon turns 36
{g} Ned turns 36, Petyr is 30, Brandon is 36
{h} Ned is 36, Petyr turns 31, Brandon is 36
[/indent]Only three consecutive points can happen in a year; we need to find the correct window of three consecutive points. We can rule out {a} from happening in 298, since Ned cannot be 33 and 35 in a given year. We can rule out {h} from happening in 298, since Petyr cannot be 29 and 31 in a given year. We can eliminate {g} since e-f-g would give us a window in which Petyr is not 29 in 298.
[indent]{b} Ned is 34, Petyr turns 29, Brandon is 34
{c} Ned is 34, Petyr is 29, Brandon turns 35
{d} Ned turns 35, Petyr is 29, Brandon is 35
{e} Ned is 35, Petyr turns 30, Brandon is 35
{f} Ned is 35, Petyr is 30, Brandon turns 36
[/indent]We know that Petyr is 15 at the time of the duel, which occurs before Lyanna's disappearance and the start of the war. The duel occurs within a year of Brandon's death (which shortly precedes the start of the war) since Brandon is 20 at both events. So the duel is either in 282 or 283. It is very close to Brandon's death in fact, since Ned needs to be 20 by the time Petyr turns 15 and Ned is at least 9 months younger than Brandon; i.e., Brandon is at most 3 months away from 21 during the duel. If the duel is in 282 when Petyr is 15, at some point in 298 he is 31; but we know this is impossible since he was 29 in 298 at one point, so the duel is in 283 (as must be Brandon's death). Since Petyr is 15 at some point in 283, he must be 30 at some point in 298. We can rule out {b} since this would give us a window in which Petyr does not turn 30 in 298.
[indent]{c} Ned is 34, Petyr is 29, Brandon turns 35
{d} Ned turns 35, Petyr is 29, Brandon is 35
{e} Ned is 35, Petyr turns 30, Brandon is 35
{f} Ned is 35, Petyr is 30, Brandon turns 36
[/indent]We know that Brandon died in 283 close to his 21st birthday. He must have died within the first 3 months of 283 in order to leave enough time for Robb's conception and birth, both of which must happen in 283 since Robb's birth surely does. Thus Brandon's 21st birthday would have been in 283. Had he lived he would have turned 36 in 298, so we can eliminate {c}.
[indent]{d} Ned turns 35, Petyr is 29, Brandon is 35
{e} Ned is 35, Petyr turns 30, Brandon is 35
{f} Ned is 35, Petyr is 30, Brandon turns 36
[/indent]
This is the sequence I started with but I think the elimination was necessary ... right? Whatever, I think we can conclude:

[b]Ned turns 35 in 298. His birth year is 263.
Petyr turns 30 in 298. His birth year is 268.
Brandon duels and dies at nearly 21 in 283. His birth year is 262.
In a calendar year Ned's birthday precedes Petyr's, which precedes Brandon's. These all occur within a 3 month span at most.[/b]

[Ran]

Let me correct myself. Me math was bad. ;) Tyrion would be 25-26, not 24-25 as of AFfC. This is based off the "8 or 9" thing that Oberyn mentions. Give or take half a year, as well.

[SFDanny]

Wow, thanks Lady Blackfish, I will go over this and add it to my work. Thanks, for the great contribution!

I thought I should post what I have around the Twins name day and see if anyone else has more. Here it is is, please forgive the length:

[b]The "Three-Year Gap"[/b]

We are told Ned is 18 when he is going from the Eyrie to the tourney at Harrenhal ([i]AGoT[/i] 526,) and we are told Jaime is 15 when he takes his vows to be inducted into the Kingsguard at the same event ([i]ASoS[/i] 758.) So we know at that time there is a three year gap between the two characters.

Given that we know Ned's age is 35 in 298 ([i]AGoT[/i] 12), meaning he is either 34 turning 35, or he is 35 turning 36, in 298, we also know the various possibilities for the years he can be 18 - it comes down to a choice of either 280, 281 and 282. However because of the sequence necessary between Ned's, Brandon's, and Littlefinger's name days we know Ned is born in 263. This means he turns 18 in 281 and is still 18 in 282. These two years are the only possibilities for the Year of the False Spring based on Ned's name day.

In turn, because Jaime has to be 15 when Ned is 18 we can say that he turns 15 in Year 280, 281 or 282 - meaning his birth year is in 265, 266, or 267.

To sum up, the Year of the False Spring has to be in year 281 or 282 and Jaime has to be 15 in one of these years.

[b]"The One or Two Years before the Rebellion"[/b]

We are told by Martin the Year of the False Spring is a [url="http://”http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/1237/”"]"year or two"[/url] before the start of Robert's Rebellion. Unfortunately, this doesn't eliminate any of our options because, although we know the Sack of King's Landing takes place in 283 and the ending of the war shortly thereafter, we don't know when the Rebellion starts - other than a general timeline of the war lasting about a year. It is possible to stretch a "year or two" to include Year 280 if Robert's Rebellion starts in Year 282. So this test only really confirms what we know from the "Three-Year-Gap."

[b]"The Aurane Waters 10-year Gap"[/b]

Cersei tells us that Aurane Waters wants her, but more importantly she tells us he is ten years younger than her ([i]AFfC[/i] 243) When we combine this with an earlier statement that Waters is 22 years old when she names him to her small council ([i]AFfC[/i] 234-5) and we have Cersei being 32 years old in Year 300 when both of these events take place. Right? No, we can't accept that just yet. Cersei could be 32 turning 33 later in the year, or Aurane Waters could be 22 when he joins the council and 23 when Cersei lusts after him later on - which would make her 33 when our 10 year gap takes place. This also allows for the possibility that Cersei is 33 when the council meeting takes place, but she will turn 34 later in the year. So, what this really tells us is that Cersei, and therefore Jaime as well, could have their 32nd, 33rd, or 34th name days in Year 300.

How does this match up with our earlier tests? If Cersei is 34 in Year 300, then she turns 15 in 281. If she turns 33 in 300 she turns 15 in 282, and if she turns 32 in 300, she turns 15 in 283. Notice there is no possibility of Year 280 here - we can finally throw that out as an option. Notice also that our previous tests eliminate Year 283, so we are left with only the possibilities that the Twins turn 33 or 34 in Year 300 and they are born in either 266 or 267.

[b]"The Lannisport Tourney"[/b]

There is speculation that Prince Rhaegar was born the same night King Aegon V reign comes to an end; all amidst a calamity at Summerhall, quite possibly involving an attempt to bring forth dragons. If this is true, we have the year of Rhaegar's birth in the listings in [i]AGoT[/i] coinciding with Aegon's death in Year 259. This would put Rhaegar turning 17 in year 276 and places the grand tourney at Lannisport that Cersei describes ([i]AFfC 360-1[/i]) as taking place when she is ten in either 276 or 277. Both of these years correspond to our acceptable options of 266 or 267 as birth years for the Twins. So this qualifies as further support of these dates.

[b]"The Red Viper's Tale"[/b]

Prince Oberyn Martell of Dorne entertains Tyrion on their ride back to King's Landing with a tale of his visit, along with his sister Elia, to Casterly Rock shortly after Tyrion was born. Combined with the reminisces of his older brother, Doran Martell, after the Red Viper's death we get some fascinating clues about the ages of all the Martells, the Twins, and Tyrion.

Doran Martell is either 51 turning 52 in 300 or 52 turning 53 in that year. Meaning he is born in either 247 or 248. If he is born in 247 the latest Elia can be born is 257 before Doran's name day, and the latest Oberyn can be born is 258 before Doran's name day. If he is born in 248, the latest Elia can be born is 258 before Doran's name day, and the latest Oberyn can be born is 259 before Doran's name day. [b]Which means the absolute latest Oberyn can turn 15 is in year 274. He can, however, still be 15 in 275 before he turns 16. So the latest this encounter can take place is in year 275. The earliest it can happen is when he is 14, so given a 247 birth year for Doran and 257 birth year for Oberyn that equals 271 as the earliest date we can have for matching the Red Viper's age to his story. This would mean the range of possibilities goes all the way from 271 to 275, but not all of those years fit with Oberyn's tale regarding the Twin's ages.[/b]

If we look at when the Twins turn both eight and nine given years 266 and 267 as possible birth years this restricts the options for the meeting further. They would turn 8 in either 274 or 275, and they would turn 9 in either 275 or 276. We would have to add the possibility of 277 if we are just looking at the Twins ages because the meeting could theoretically take place in 277 before they turn 10. However, by overlapping the two sets of possible age ranges for the Twins and for Prince Oberyn we get only ages that fit both are 274 and 275. Obviously neither of these years eliminate either 266 or 267 as possibilities.

Looking at Tyrion's age we have to add the year previous, 273, to a possible birth year for him because it is possible that he is born in the year previous to the visit and the Martells arrive in Casterly Rock after the year turns.

[b]"The 18-year-gap contradiction"[/b]

One of the things that has bothered me for quite some time is the apparent contradiction in two quotes from the Lannister brothers. First,

[quote name='A Storm of Swords']"'Casterly Rock,' he declared in a flat cold dead tone. And then, 'Never.'
The word hung between them, huge, sharp, poisoned.
[i]I knew the answer before I asked[/i], Tyrion said. [b]Eighteen years since Jaime joined the Kingsguard,[/b] [i]and I never once raised the issue. I must have known. I must always have known.[/i]" ([i]ASoS[/i] 53)[/quote] bold emphasis added

and next,

[quote name='A Storm of Swords']"The room was round, its walls of whitewashed stone hung with white woolen tapestries. It formed the first floor of the White Sword Tower, a slender structure of four stories built into an angle of the castle wall overlooking the bay. The undercroft held arms and armor, the second and third floors the small spare sleeping cells of the six brother of the Kingsguard.

[b]One of these cells had been his for eighteen years,[/b] but this morning he had moved his things to the topmost floor, which was given over entirely to the Lord Commander's apartments" ([i]ASoS[/i] 750)[/quote] bold emphasis added

The first comes from a discussion between Tyrion and Tywin after the Battle of the Blackwater and [b]is most certainly in year 299[/b] (it is after Joffrey's 13th name day and before his wedding.) The second is after Jaime comes back to King's Landing from his captivity in Riverrun and [b]takes place after Joffrey's death in Year 300.[/b] So both brothers think of Jaime becoming a knight of the Kingsguard and think of it as happening eighteen years ago, [i]but do so in different years.[/i] Clearly they are not taking the year they are in and subtracting the year Jaime joined the Kingsguard and coming up with the same answer. They both can add and subtract. Then why doesn't Jaime think in terms of nineteen years? Or Tyrion in terms of seventeen? It can be a few answers but only one makes sense to me.

[b]I believe they are thinking of Jaime's age and subtracting to when he was fifteen and took his vows.[/b] What this means is that Jaime is the same age when both quotes take place. Or putting it another way, Jaime's name day for Year 299 takes place before Tyrion's quote, but his name day in Year 300 has not taken place yet. Now, this is what makes this realization great (in my obsessed eyes anyway) - it means that Jaime is not only the same age from the time in 299 to 300 that these quotes span - it also means that Jaime is the same age over the same time period in the Year of the False Spring - i.e. Jaime has turned fifteen in the Year of the False Spring before he takes his vows, and does not turn sixteen until the following year. Because we knew Jaime was fifteen at the Harrenhal tourney when he takes his vows, we had two choices:

[indent]{a} He was 14 turning 15 in the Year of the False Spring, or



{b} He was 15 turning 16 in the Year of the False Spring.[/indent]

The realization above eliminates option "b" as a possibility. because if it's "b" Jaime would be thinking in terms of 19 years because his 34th name day would have had to have already come and gone in 299. The fact it hasn't come yet in Year 300 also tells us something about when his name day falls in the year if we can estimate how much time has passed between Joffrey's death and Jaime's quote. However, because the time period is not very long it doesn't tell us very much.

All of which, in turn means we can subtract 18 years from Year 299 (the year Jaime turns the age both brothers are working off in their calculations) and get the year Jaime's age turns 15 - [b]or Year 281. Which tells us Jaime is 32 turning 33 in Year 299 and he was born in Year 266. [/b]

This also fits the straight forward interpretation of Jaime's entry in the White Book when it says, "Chosen for the Kingsguard in his 15th year by King Aerys II Targaryen." ([i]ASoS[/i] 753)

But before accepting this explanation and it's consequences it needs to be checked to see if any other explanation fit these clues - particularly if other explanations can both explain all the other clues and the "18 year gap contradiction."

edited to reflect Lady Blackfish's information [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=31414&view=findpost&p=1552796"]above[/url]

Note* - In the [url="http://www.suvudu.com/2010/04/cage-match-2010-championship-5-rand-althor-versus-15-jaime-lannister.html"]Suvudu cage matches[/url] Jaime has his age listed as 34. Not that I take this as canon, but it is nice to see that it agrees with my attempts to figure it out. I like to think this was posted with information approved by GRRM, but don't have anything to say that it is so.
[quote][b]Jaime Lannister
The Kingslayer
Age: 34
Race: Human
Weapons / Artifacts: Sword (Valyrian steel; borrowed from Tommen)
Special Attack: “Call Tyrion”[/b][/quote]

[Fireball07]

I just want to make the point, that there is a distinct possibility that GRRM made a few continuity mistakes. It is possible, at least.

Also, excellent thread, good work by SFDanny and Lady Blackfish in particular.

[SFDanny]

[quote name='Firebll07' post='1552929' date='Oct 12 2008, 07.18']I just want to make the point, that there is a distinct possibility that GRRM made a few continuity mistakes. It is possible, at least.

Also, excellent thread, good work by SFDanny and Lady Blackfish in particular.[/quote]

Thanks for the kind words. To your point, I admit it is entirely possible that Martin made such mistakes, but unless we can isolate them by showing where he makes a mistake I think we have to operate on the idea that what he says he means. Otherwise, there is no making sense of any of this. I would throw in the possibility of "unreliable narrators" as well, but, again, unless we can show that one of the characters just doesn't know what they are talking about on a given subject, I suggest we work on the basis they do. To do anything else just makes my head spin trying to figure anything out.

If you want nominations for who might be unreliable, I'd put Cersei and her "ten-year-gap" at the top of my list. If you want my thoughts about possible continuity mistakes, I'd put the Lannister brothers' 18 year contradiction as the most likely candidate.

[Guest Other-in-law]

This is maybe getting a bit on the obscure side, but some possibly useful passages I just noticed, Pycelle in aGoT:
[i]"Near forty years I have been Grand Maester of the Seven Kingdoms," Pycelle replied. Under our good king Robert, and Aerys Targaryen before him, and his father Jaehaerys the Second before him, and even for a few short months under Jaehaerys' father, Aegon the Fortunate, the Fifth of His Name."[/i]

and in aFfC:
[i]"How old are you?" Cersei asked abruptly.
"[b]Four-and-eighty[/b], if it please Your Grace."
"A younger man would please me more."
His tongue flickered across his lips. "I was but two-and-forty when the Conclave called me. Kaeth was eighty when they chose him, and Ellendor was nigh on ninety. The cares of office crushed them, and both were dead within a year of being raised. Merion came next, only six-and-sixty, but he died of a chill on his way to King's Landing. Afterward King Aegon asked the Citadel to send a younger man. He was the first king I served."[/i]

Those are of course rough, round numbers, but less than 40 years as Grand Maester when Ned was Hand in aGoT, to 42 some time in 300 in aFfC.

[Fireball07]

That is a mistake, plain and simple, IMO.

Unless someone can up with another meaning?

[Ran]

You have to factor in the propensity of people to round figures in Westeros. That is to say, Aurane Waters being "ten years" younger is not necessarily literally ten years -- it could be twelve or so and she's rounded it down to ten. This is actually fairly common behavior in the series, in good part because George himself prefers the ambiguity of rounded numbers -- it gives him more fudge factor. So while the deductions are really very well done, you have to accept that we're never going to be absolutely sure when it comes to anything that needs really small margins. If you've pinned something to a fairly broad range, the fudge factor shouldn't be an issue ... but I think whenever you try and pin things down to within six months or less, that's going to be tough.

I don't really see a contradiction in Pycelle saying "almost 40" (when it's, say, 39 and 10 months) and then saying 42 (when it's 41 and 6 months) at another point in time, in any case.

[Fireball07]

[quote name='Ran' post='1554268' date='Oct 13 2008, 20.48']You have to factor in the propensity of people to round figures in Westeros. That is to say, Aurane Waters being "ten years" younger is not necessarily literally ten years -- it could be twelve or so and she's rounded it down to ten. This is actually fairly common behavior in the series, in good part because George himself prefers the ambiguity of rounded numbers -- it gives him more fudge factor. So while the deductions are really very well done, you have to accept that we're never going to be absolutely sure when it comes to anything that needs really small margins. If you've pinned something to a fairly broad range, the fudge factor shouldn't be an issue ... but I think whenever you try and pin things down to within six months or less, that's going to be tough.

I don't really see a contradiction in Pycelle saying "almost 40" (when it's, say, 39 and 10 months) and then saying 42 (when it's 41 and 6 months) at another point in time, in any case.[/quote]


Off-topic: Ran, could you do me a favour? For some reason, the r in my named between the b and the l never appeared when I first signed up. Could you remedy this, please?

[Guest Other-in-law]

Yeah, I admitted that the numbers are probably rounded. Still, that establishes not only Pycelle's age, but those of no less than 3 other Grand Maesters!

[SFDanny]

[quote name='Other-in-law' post='1554358' date='Oct 13 2008, 16.09']Yeah, I admitted that the numbers are probably rounded. Still, that establishes not only Pycelle's age, but those of no less than 3 other Grand Maesters![/quote]

Thanks, Other-in-law, I think this nails down Pycelle's age, and I'll add it to the OP to reflect that fact. This is how I see it, but correct me if I'm wrong:

Both of the following have to be true:

[indent] (1) - If he has already turned 84 in 300 then he was born in 216, or he was born in 215 and is turning 85 in 300 after the quote in [i]AFfC[/i].

(2) - Pycelle also has to be 42 when he is chosen, and because he served Aegon only for "a few short months" he has to be 42 between a few months before the end of Year 258 to anytime in 259 (we know this is the last year of Aegon's reign, but we don't know [i]when[/i] in 259 Egg dies.) This gives us three possibilities based on this clue alone: {a} he is born in 215 and turns 42 in 257 and turns 43 in late 258 after he is chosen, {b} he is born in 216 and he turns 42 in late 258 (in this scenario he can be chosen anytime after he turns 42 in either 258 or 259,) or {c} he is born in 217 and turns 42 in 259. However, the fact he is 84 in 300 eliminates "c" as a possiblility as this option would have Pycelle turning both 83 and 84 in the same year. For both "a" and "b" we have Pycelle's name day happening late in the year, which means in option "a" he turns 85 late in the year, and option "b" has him turn 84 late in the year. The timing of the quote in ([i]AFfC[/i] 542) eliminates option "b" as Pycelle is already 84 much earlier than the last two or three months of Year 300 (e.g. [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=31411&view=findpost&p=1539244"]Errant Bard[/url] has it in the fourth turn of the moon in 300 - perhaps EB can help with this, but I don't see how to stretch the time to put the last quote 5-7 months later in time.)[/indent]

[b]Therefore Grand Maester Pycelle was born in Year 215, sometime in the last two or three months of the year.[/b]

[Guest Other-in-law]

[quote name='SFDanny' post='1554766' date='Oct 14 2008, 04.20']This is how I see it, but correct me if I’m wrong:[/quote]
Oh, I'm not nearly good enough at this sort of number crunching to be able to competently judge it, but I'm happy to dig up the odd quote that you might be able to work with!

[Lady Blackfish]

Well unfortunately, I think I've come across a problem. I was looking at Errant Bard's timeline and realized that (if his figuring is correct), Ned and Petyr's birthdays are at least 5 months apart in a calendar year, and that doesn't jive with my figuring. I'm thinking the problem is Catelyn's "scarely fifteen" when she recalls Petyr's age during the duel, she may be rounding. I'll work on it, I guess? Sorry, I should've checked a few more things before I posted, I'm going to see what happens if I assume the duel was late 282 instead, and go from there. If I can't come up with something then I'll try to see which piece information is the least trustworthy, if nothing else.

[Errant Bard]

[quote name='SFDanny' post='1554766' date='Oct 14 2008, 10.20'][url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=31411&view=findpost&p=1539244"]Errant Bard[/url] has it in the fourth turn of the moon in 300 - perhaps EB can help with this, but I don't see how to stretch the time to put the last quote 5-7 months later in time.)[/quote][quote name='Lady Blackfish' post='1560423' date='Oct 19 2008, 00.16']Well unfortunately, I think I've come across a problem. I was looking at Errant Bard's timeline and realized that (if his figuring is correct), Ned and Petyr's birthdays are at least 5 months apart in a calendar year, and that doesn't jive with my figuring.[/quote]
It can be wrong, and inconsistencies already exist, too, as I noted. :)

This being said, I don't think any chapter could be wrong by more than a few weeks except the last two Sam chapters, the last Arya chapter, and the first Dany chapter, as they are all interdependent, and if I were to try to shift one by such a margin, I would end end shifting the whole timeline, which, of course isn't possible considering we have the date of Joffrey's wedding.

If you want to try some tweaking, I have given a link to the spreadsheet I used in the original post, so you can see which chapter depends on which (though there are usually secondary constraints like making Cat capture Tyrion before Jaime attacks Ned to take into account) and try to play with the numbers between them.

[Kevin_Lannister]

[quote name='Ran' post='1554268' date='Oct 13 2008, 15.48']You have to factor in the propensity of people to round figures in Westeros. That is to say, Aurane Waters being "ten years" younger is not necessarily literally ten years -- it could be twelve or so and she's rounded it down to ten. This is actually fairly common behavior in the series, in good part because George himself prefers the ambiguity of rounded numbers -- it gives him more fudge factor. So while the deductions are really very well done, you have to accept that we're never going to be absolutely sure when it comes to anything that needs really small margins. If you've pinned something to a fairly broad range, the fudge factor shouldn't be an issue ... but I think whenever you try and pin things down to within six months or less, that's going to be tough.

I don't really see a contradiction in Pycelle saying "almost 40" (when it's, say, 39 and 10 months) and then saying 42 (when it's 41 and 6 months) at another point in time, in any case.[/quote]

Yes remember he did make that first mistake about Viserys II being a son instead of Aegons brother in the orginal AGOT. He does do this time to time but the people who work with him spot these things. Thats why he has them there, and after all this success and money, I think the amount of people doing this will grow and less errors made by him actually going to publication will still exisit. Safe to say, by now, hes been successful enough to were he can afford not to have these errors, even if he himself doesnt want to do the math.