GoT Mafia Game 69

[House Yronwood]

When did you leave the thread? From your comment on watching a movie and coming back with three hours to go I had the impression that you'd be around until the end of the day. You certainly didn't give the impression that you were leaving after you voted for Plumm.

Certainly didn't. Fell asleep. It happens.

[House Stokeworth]

As suspected, only rereading those with less than 10 posts wasn't a great idea. So I kept rereading people until I came to the first person on the list who I felt had contributed reasonably (not massively, but had at least made a contribution). This person was Cerwyn, so I'm adding Royce, Tyrell and Reyne to my list.

Royce: Has one substantial post (his suspicions of Plumm), everything else is joke, silliness, and complaining about other people's waffle. I actually think that some of the 6 posters have contributed more than Royce.

Tyrell: Has one unexplained vote on Tarth. He talks about cases, but mostly all he does is agree with folks.

Reyne: Nothing, nothing, nothing. Decent post about Tarth. Kill the quiet people. I still have a generally favourable impression of Reyne. He doesn't have undead hundred yard stare about him that a few others seem to.

So for me Royce and Tyrell fit fairly comfortably in my top group of suspicious low posters while Reyne is probably the least suspicious person I've reread so far.

Now, while I agree that we need to concentrate on the low posters (13/20 players posting too little content to get a decent read on them is really off), there are almost certainly Red Priests among the more vocal players. I don't know whether to suspect that there are zombies among the talkative folk as well. It seems like there ought to be a reasonable chance that there is, but with so many at the bottom end I'm wondering if there isn't some posting restriction that forces them down there. Also, at the moment I'm really only looking for play that seems off, it's obviously perfectly conceivable that someone might play a zombie with more skill than that.

[House Tully]

So what are your tiers at this point Stonetree? You have read everyone it seems.

[Lady Gaga]

I've had a bit of a catch-up, and for now my finger of suspicion is pointing towards Royce. What have we had from him? Some spam, some waffle, some wishy-washy comments about WIFOM, and a joke vote on Plumm that somehow stayed till the end of the day; I don't think he made a single post of substance yesterday, other than a vague jump onto the "we don't suspect Lannister" bandwagon, which is not saying that much at all.

I'm feeling best about Cerwyn, Lannister, Reyne and Baratheon at the moment, but I'll need to do some more thorough rereads before I can get full tiers out. And for the record, I've not actually played a game with a Finder (and no CF) before so forgive any lapses of etiquette there, but I thought that the healer/finder combo would be our best bet; if we lose either then we could be in trouble.

Edited to add Reyne to my list of least-suspected; he had posted so little I'd forgotten I'd read him, but nothing to cause suspicion there.

[House Targaryen]

It is day 2.

18 players remain: Baratheon, Cerwyn, Dondarrion, Hoare, Kettleblack, Lannister, Liddle, Martell, Myre, Piper, Plumm, Reyne, Royce, Stokeworth, Stonetree, Tarth, Tully, Tyrell.

10 votes are needed for a conviction or 9 to go to night.

2 votes for Piper ( Plumm, Baratheon)

1 vote for Liddle ( Stonetree)

1 vote for Martell ( Myre)

1 vote for Plumm ( Cerwyn)

1 vote for Royce ( Kettleblack)

12 players have not voted: Dondarrion, Hoare, Lannister, Liddle, Martell, Piper, Reyne, Royce, Stokeworth, Tarth, Tully, Tyrell.

[House Thorne]

Marginally? How about not at all.

Yeh, but I was putting it nicely for Lannister's benefit :)

interisting night kill but it doesn't tell us much. wifom and all that.

i agree with Plumm that Piper's psuedo-role claim and his bizzare theory that all innocent roles are controled by the same person seemed really off.

That's not what Piper's theory was, iirc.

I'm really sorry, but I don't have any more time today. I really want to be rereading, but I'm going to be away from the computer for another few hours. Lame, I know. However, I have resolved that I'd rather lynch a low poster today - if the high posters are to be killed at night, if we want an active and enjoyable game, we'd better not lynch them too (obviously unless we have good reason, but I'm not so convinced of the guilt of any top poster) So I'm going to remove vote

[House Stokeworth]

So what are your tiers at this point Stonetree? You have read everyone it seems.

It's a much smaller job than it actually sounds. :P

I thought I'd explained the way I'd divide the people I've reread, but just to make it clear.

I can easily break it into three groups.

Liddle, Tarth, Kettleblack, Martell, Myre, Royce, Tyrell. This group seems off to me.

Tully, Webber. I have next to no read on.

Piper, Stokeworth, Hoare. These guys give me the impression that they're the kind of low posters you'd get in a regular game. People who are busy or what have you.

That top group is a little large, but they really are difficult to separate. I will try to break them into two groups however. Also, Myre's contribution since I started rereading makes me inclined to move him down to the bottom group. So, a rough four tiers would be (from least to most trusted, baring in mind that I don't really "trust" the most "trusted").

Liddle, Tarth, Martell

Kettleblack, Royce, Tyrell

Tully, Webber

Piper, Stokeworth, Hoare.

Reyne <-- I'm happy to move you out of this group of characters. I feel you're more likely to be a Red Priest than a zombie at this point.

After reading through my notes in an attempt to split the big group I've decided to switch Martell and Kettleblack around from my original order.

Also, could we get an update on the status of Webber re: corporeality? Plumm's claim that zombies might not be modkilled is starting to look less ridiculous. :P

[House Thorne]

House Webber has been mod killed for inactivity.

[House Stokeworth]

Pfft. That's what I get for not reading the vote count posts properly. So you can take Webber out of my tiers.

[House Corbray]

I had a feeling that Lannister would make it through the night, since he was an obvious choice for heal/kill, because he was really active and wrote some of the things on which I (and a few more) had very similar views.

Lannisters's theory which required us to vote for him, and then remove votes, it could have been a cheap try to break the current voting but I don't find this very probable, as a matter of fact Lannister is not even on my suspect list, but i just wanted to mention it

Question is, what to do with Martell now?

Given the fact that Martell is pretty much very inactive, everything is possible, but he still remains my suspect, but i have some other more interesting suspects.

However, i feel obligated to explain my vote on Tarth, i would like to wait some more time, but i promise, it will be explained before the end of the day.

Unfortunately, i won't have access to internet for next 5 hours since there are some issues with my provider, but i will be here tonight and will give some of my theories.

[House Clegane]

By the end of the day, I want to do a reread of every player in the game and sort them into tiers in terms of how likely they are to be either zombies or red priests. For the record, I'm not going to give a free pass to players who were suspicious yesterday but have suddenly popped up out of nowhere with lots to say. For all I know, a red priest could be controlling them today. I'm looking for inconsistent, inexplicable behaviour, shifts in writing style, refusal to answer questions, odd timing of appearances or votes, and fake "helpful" comments that state the obvious. These are signs that an alt is either being controlled by several players, or that it doesn't have a coherent persona with consistent views.

However, since this will take me forever, I'd first like to ask everyone a question. Has anyone ever seen another player echo a thoughts post you sent in to the mods? The way I think Myre did with Martell? Actually, I've got an even stranger question. (This is just based on a paranoid conspiracy theory I have.) Did anyone send in an alt-guess for Liddle?

Plumm: I get what you think I might be trying to pull. I may totally suck as evil, but even I wouldn't be stupid enough to defend a partner this blatantly. So I don't expect anyone to think we might be FM partners. I'm not trying to set you up for a fall if I get investigated and turn up guilty--or the reverse, make myself look squeaky-clean if you turn up innocent. I know my trust in you seems strange, but I have reasons for it that I've posted in the thread. I'm still not 100% sure you're not a red priest, though.

Yeh, but I was putting it nicely for Lannister's benefit :)

My sensitive ego is wounded.

:cry:

[House Stokeworth]

Lannisters's theory which required us to vote for him, and then remove votes, it could have been a cheap try to break the current voting but I don't find this very probable, as a matter of fact Lannister is not even on my suspect list, but i just wanted to mention it

I find it odd that so many people didn't see what Lannister was up to immediately. We'd just been talking about the possibility that some alts couldn't vote or were limited in some way. I thought it was obvious that Lannister wanted people to vote and vote for the one person he knew wasn't an alt. The fact that none of the people who voted him seemed to understand why they were doing it actually makes me wonder if some of the confusion wasn't feigned. FM, after all, wouldn't want to look like they knew too much about how the alts worked. It looks like the people who claimed to not understand it were yourself, Baratheon, and Martell. Liddle also commented, but seemed to be saying more that he didn't think it would work than that he didn't understand it. Well that's a comforting list. Baratheon is probably the high poster who is bothering me most at the moment (though without a reread I couldn't say why), and the rest of you are my top zombie tier.

[House Dondarrion]

I will allow House Dondarrion to post until Lany returns. He still might be modkilled then.

Has a decision been made?

[House Stokeworth]

For all I know, a red priest could be controlling them today.

I've seen you hint at this a couple of times, though I've never seen you outright explain it. Are you suggesting that the FM may only have intermittent control over the alts? Also the suggestion that multiple FMs might be able to control the same alt... it just seems wrong to me, though I can't really say why.

[House Targaryen]

Has a decision been made?

Post til your heart's content. You were here within the alloted hours after being notified, so that means no mod kill...yet :devil:

I have also updated the time :)

[House Clegane]

I've seen you hint at this a couple of times, though I've never seen you outright explain it. Are you suggesting that the FM may only have intermittent control over the alts? Also the suggestion that multiple FMs might be able to control the same alt... it just seems wrong to me, though I can't really say why.

Remember how it said in the setting that the RPs had to keep a tight rein on the zombies, or else they would attack people at random? I think Greyjoy had the same theory about the red priests having only intermittent control over them. I've told you that I think a few of the alts may be mod-controlled--partly because of the Myre thing. But I guess I can't really prove anything. I've just seen behaviour that makes me think that the zombies are not acting with any element of self-preservation, or doing a very good job of furthering an evil agenda. Example: Martell's posts. And some of the players seem to be attacking people at random.

Either way, I'm in the middle of writing a case based on links between zombies. (Just to warn you, though, it may take...um, a while for me to finish.)

[House Dondarrion]

I've read through the thread (although I can't surf as much at work as i'd like, so it has genuinely taken me about 7 hours....), and most of what i've read has been fairly useless role speculation.

Is there any hard evidence that anyone has multiple alts? Is there any hard evidence that the mods are controlling alts?

No, surprisingly high signups are not evidence.

And no, Lannister, someone using the same phrase you've just sent to the mods is not evidence. Why would the mods be taking players thoughts and posting them on-thread? That would definitely be an evil mod game. And it does happen - I has having very similar thoughts about Royce's joke votes to Kettleblack, but he posted it first (yes, I suspect Royce).

If there's nothing definite, can we please just...stop. This speculation is getting us nowhere. We need to be treating this more like a normal game, and finding the killers like we normally would.

And I haven't got that many thoughts about suspicious people myself yet, sorry. I'll re-read everyone individually tonight, i'll have a few hours free to play. :)

For now, Royce.

[House Tully]

However, since this will take me forever, I'd first like to ask everyone a question. Has anyone ever seen another player echo a thoughts post you sent in to the mods? The way I think Myre did with Martell? Actually, I've got an even stranger question. (This is just based on a paranoid conspiracy theory I have.) Did anyone send in an alt-guess for Liddle?

So you had the same thought, big deal. I mean, do you honestly believe that a mod is playing Myre, saw your thoughts post and said "Oh why don't I just post the same thing!" Really?

[House Stokeworth]

Remember how it said in the setting that the RPs had to keep a tight rein on the zombies, or else they would attack people at random? I think Greyjoy had the same theory about the red priests having only intermittent control over them. I've told you that I think a few of the alts may be mod-controlled--partly because of the Myre thing. But I guess I can't really prove anything. I've just seen behaviour that makes me think that the zombies are not acting with any element of self-preservation, or doing a very good job of furthering an evil agenda. Example: Martell's posts. And some of the players seem to be attacking people at random.

Either way, I'm in the middle of writing a case based on links between zombies. (Just to warn you, though, it may take...um, a while for me to finish.)

I saw Greyjoy's suggestion, I even commented on it and agree with it. It just sound more like you were suggesting that the priests only had control over a small group of zombies and that this group rotated on a regular basis. I was imagining Greyjoy's scenario as being something like, the priests have control over all the zombies to begin with, but if some zombie doesn't achieve a certain post count, or goes too long without posting, they pass out of the priest's control and simply run amok.

Take you're time with your grand theory. I'm in no rush. Though I probably won't be around much longer.

[House Tully]

I've made this post before but it was at the end of the day so it was pretty much ignored. Or maybe it was ignored because I was on to something. I don't know. But anyway, I'm reposting it with my vote because I believe strongly that Tarth is guilty.

Tarth

Reason being, his last post.

Finshed my reread. The main theme while I've been away has been the discussion between Plumm and Greyjoy. I agree with those who say that Plumm's logic has some loopholes. I basically agree with what Stonetree said:

I slightly disagree with Reyne:

I think it is not very likely that the mods control some alts, but it's not impossible. I still did not see a convincing explanation how a scenario like this should wwork for the innocents, but this does not mean we should completely rule out mod controled alts. After all there is a twist in this game.

My suspects are Royce, Tully, Tyrell and Hoare. They all give me the impression of a middle-of-the-road player. Martell also gives me some headaches. Either Lannister is right about him or he really is that careless. Finally I didn't like the way how Plumm disappeared. Sounds like a cheap excuse to keep his vote where it is. Piper and Stokeworth have to post more, seriously.

In the first paragraph, he tells us that he agrees that Plumm's logic has some loopholes.

He then disagrees with me on a point that is completely nonsensical. Why would we actually seriously consider mod's controlling alts? I know Lannister believes it but how does that help us at all at this stage in the game? And really, who wants to play a game where alts are controlled by mods? It takes away the point of the game entirely. So I don't like someone keeping this option alive, especially in the way he did it.

And finally, he tells us his suspects, which as you'll note, does not include Plumm. However, he also throws in another stab at Plumm. So in his post, he rips into Plumm twice, once for the logic loopholes, once for disappearing with a vote on yet he's not a suspect. It feels far too much like someone making sure his option is open to vote him but throwing out other suspects so he doesn't look like he's following the crowd.

My question to you Tarth is how Royce, Tully, Tyrell and Hoare are playing middle of the road?