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lancerman

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Everything posted by lancerman

  1. The Mad King has gone too far this time and the Lords of the realm must band together to stop him from wreaking havoc
  2. Texas is kind of a must win state for Biden. If Sanders takes California and Texas he is dead
  3. If the delegate leader and the popular vote leader are different you actually have a clear case for contested convention. That is very different from a scenario where someone is the clear leader going in but the party is trying to outmath them with super delegates and other candidates pledged delegates. In that scenario it's the purpose of a contested convention. In the other it's basically just the party not liking who got the most support and finding a reason to take it away. And no if Sanders has the popular vote and not the delegates, he ran a campaign with the metric being delegates. His supporters would have to move on. Honestly Sanders probably has a better shot at beating Trump because his coalition is made up of people who usually don't turn out and are less likely to turn out if he's not the nom. It's the magical youth vote that Democrats always chase. But that's besides the point. The best case scenario for the Democrats is that somebody gets a clear victory in delegates and popular votes going into the primary and they walk out with the nom. Maybe even saying the other person is VP to consolidate support
  4. It has to be a compelling argument for the voters or else it's an auto Trump win. And make no mistake a very small percentage of Sanders supporters didn't back Hillary Clinton in 2016. Less defected from her than Hillary supporters that defected from Obama. They need Sanders supporters to vote for them or they lose. If they really do that, they will hand the election to Trump. If Biden or anybody else wants the nom, come in with more votes and delegates than Sanders. If you can't, if you walk out with the nom you will be the second person to lose to Trump
  5. If Biden + Bloomberg > Warren + Sanders BUT Sanders has the lead, then Trump wins. And no it's not a compelling argument that the person with the plurality should lose the nom. It will destroy the Democratic party.
  6. There’s not enough data to credibly to model all that’s happened in 3 days. It could be anything from minimal change to game changing
  7. I am. People have things to do. I am booked all day tomorrow. I would not be voting if I couldn’t vote early. Blame people like Buttigieg and Klobuchar who were callous and waited last minute
  8. I don’t think either will unite the Party. I’ve also heard the song about Republicans defecting. Never happens. They’ll slam Biden on the Ukraine and shit and that will be their excuse
  9. Those taxpayers will still get their 1000 a month so they can complain but everyone’s going to say “why are you taking it then”
  10. Apparently it's in Florida now too, so it's basically all over the country
  11. Trump could just fear monger and say he's banning all foreigners from coming in and then the Democrats would be stuck arguing against it
  12. Exactly. Trump had scandal after scandal on his way to the Presidency. At the end of the day he is going to be an incumbant with a strong economy going against an extremely fractured Democratic Party.
  13. Companies would complain and not everyone would get it. It's a safety net for your worst case situation and a supplement for everyone else. It woud be a game changer for the homeless population, Pretty much everyone in the middle class wouldn't be living paycheck to paycheck and it would stimulate the economy. And rich people would get it so they couldn't complain about it being welfare. UBI is better because it's universal and it doesn't require anything. Nobody is going to realistically want to live off that alone if they can help it. And it allows everyone else to build a safety net for themselves in case of an emergency.
  14. The pundits on CNN used to say the same thing about Trump’s opponents when he ran
  15. Most polls on the matter describe that as the situation.
  16. His support was pretty even between Warren, Sanders, and Biden and he was tanking nationally. I think this will most likely just separate Sanders and Biden more from Bloomberg and Klobuchar further and might have a small chance of keeping Warren on some life support
  17. UBI guarantees a bare bones minimum standard and then you supplement that with your actual job. It would basically cover most or all of the rent the middle class pays.
  18. Basically based The issue Biden faces more than anything is that while Sanders is winning mosts states, Biden isn't even placing in third in some of them. Like in , California he might not be viable for him. Then Sanders is leading Massachusetts, Colorado, Utah, Virginia, Texas, Vermont, Maine, and Virginia. Sanders and Biden are in a tight race in North Carolina, and then Sander's is in 2nd in Minnesota with Klobuchar there and Biden is under 10 points. Then Bloomberg might screw Biden out of Oklahoma and Arkansas. Which really is going to leave him with with realy Alabama and Tennessee as his most likely states o Super Tuesday. Even if he gets alot of breaks he could have a very bad night and it could end with Sanders in a huge lead. Also if Bloomberg has 100 something delegates he's not leaving. I think the real question is whether people stay for a contested convention
  19. There's a zero percentc hance Bloomberg drops out prior to Super Tuesday when he spent all his money on Super Tuesday. Also funnily enough I could see a situation where only Warren drops out after Super Tuesday (because she might lose MA) and that kinda helps Bernie.
  20. If I was Joe Biden, I'm calling in every favor have with Obama for that. Because right now he just showed some life, but he's poised to take a bit of a butt whooping in several days that's going to make people forget about tonight. An Obama endorsement would be a game changer for him
  21. It'll be interesting to see how much this effects the race. It certainly helps Biden, but Super Tuesday is in a couple of days and Sanders is poised to win California, Colorado, Massachusetts, Virgina, Utah, and Texas. If he pulls that off, that could be game set match. More interestingly, Biden is only really competetive in Texas of those states. The rest even if Sanders gets upset, it's not going to be by Biden. It's going to be by someone else which will give someone else credibility to stick around, which I think the more people in this race, the more it hurts Biden.
  22. It's the South and he's gay. These states were always going to be a hurdle for him.
  23. From MA. It's super liberal in the cities and more importantly out in the middle of the state with Amherst/Northampton. Suburbs are somewhat moderate/conservative and the then there are little Kennedy strongholds that still remain. Also people don't vote on total ideology. Obama's still popular and he was a Democrat, that helps Biden there. Things like that.
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