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deja vu

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Sellsword

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  1. I've always thought the N+A = J theory makes narrative sense. Poor Cat.
  2. George lives very near the Valles Caldera and is probably influenced by what he sees every day. That part of New Mexico is pretty arid. Not much crop farming, mostly livestock. Lots of acres needed per head of cattle.
  3. An example of myths in the making in a very short time is the myth-like tale of Sansa's role in Joffrey's death. At the Inn the Hound and Arya are told:
  4. A possible link between Nettles and Sansa is a connection with The Mountain Clans, perhaps especially the Burned Men. A previous post detailed Sansa's encounters with the Mountain Clans when both were in Kings Landing, which hint that Sansa would meet the Clans again and that the clans - specifically Timmet son of Timmet (Burned Men) and Chella (Black Ears) - would recognize Sansa as Sansa, not the assumed Alayne personna. From the Nettles Wiki entry: Maybe we'll see the cave or the "hidden valley" of the Nettles story through Sansa's eyes.
  5. Once I shared the thinking that The Vale would remain isolated from the rest of Westeros and internally peaceful long enough for an extended interlude of learning "at the feet of Littlefinger," which might have worked if GRRM had followed the "5 year gap" plan. With the accelerated pace of the story without the 5 year gap, thinking about the role of Chekhov's Mountain Clans and how they fit into Sansa's arc (the Vale story is Sansa's story since she is the only POV in The Vale) leads me to now think we will not be subjected to another long wait for Sansa to "gain agency" and be thrown back into the game. The gathering of most of the ruling elite and military strength of the Vale for a gala and decidedly non-defensive celebration at the imminent tournament are a perfect set-up for the Clans to stage a surprise attack. The surviving elites and knights will be captives. Sansa has a history of stepping forward at stressful moments. She will realize that she knows some of the Clansmen because of their service with Tyrion. How better to turn a one-sided hostage situation into a negotiation than to call on established loyalties with promises of further rewards? Which does not leave Littlefinger out of the picture. He's pretty good at assessing situations. He would see how much better his situation could be if he were to support Sansa, which would bring the clans into his camp and at the very least cause division among Lannister supporters. Littlefinger would be Sansa's Machiavelli, guiding her every move. One of the first would be leaving The Vale to attend the Frey-Lannister wedding (Red Wedding 2.0?) which could be at the Twins or, more likely, at Riverrun. Sansa would not want to go but, as Littlefinger will insist, if you're in the game there is no choice but to play. The outcome of making a claim on the Westerlands in Tyrion's name need not be wholly successful in taking over Casterly Rock to be successful in advancing the causes of The North (House Stark) and the Riverlands (House Tully and, for the moment, House Baelish), each of which has been so recently ravaged by Lannister forces and allies. I am in full agreement that Sansa's ultimate future is linked to The North, and I'm a long-time believer in the importance of Chekhov's whip marks. It's long been my opinion that Littlefinger gained so much influence over Joffrey by giving him Sansa's friend Jeyne Poole to use as he pleased. The things Joffrey couldn't do to Sansa he did to Jeyne Poole. In the show, I believe that Jeyne's fate in Kings Landing was partly written into the character Roz. Sansa will become fully aware of Littlefinger's role in the destruction of House Stark when she meets up with Jeyne Poole.
  6. Sansa is first forced to think about her claim and the consequences of her claim to Winterfell in the Kings Landing godswood. She tells Ser Dontos that she no longer needs to be rescued from Kings Landing because she is going to Highgarden to marry Willis Tyrell. Once Dontos points it out, she thinks about it a lot. “My claim” is Sansa’s first thought when Cersei tells her she is to marry Tyrion. Sansa thinks about it again when Tyrion offers to be replaced by Lancel if she would prefer. And again at the Baelish estate in the Fingers. When her Aunt Lysa offered marriage to Sweetrobbin, she adds a conclusion to her thought: that a marriage for love is not in her future. In addition to her own position as the presumed heir of Winterfell, Sansa is clearly aware of the rules of succession, the near immutability of vows made by members of the Kingsguard and the Night Watch to renounce lands and titles that impact succession, and how people can be manipulated through threats to their inheritance. GRRM is telling us that Sansa’s understanding of her own and other people’s claims is important. GRRM is also known for subverting expectations. Readers have been conditioned to expect that Sansa’s claim to Winterfell is a key plot point. BUT what if GRRM turns expectations upside down so that, instead of a husband who rules in Sansa's name, Sansa the wife rules in her husband's name. I’ve been trying to work out the role of The Vale plot in ASOIAF. This past December, in a post titled Sansa, the Mountain Clans, the “Ivy Special Ops Team,” and an Avalanche, I laid out the evidence that the Vale Mountain Clans know Sansa, and that their paths would cross again. While still betrothed to Joffrey Sansa spent a day in The Hand’s apartments when Tyrion was acting Hand, and was in the care of Timmet son of Timmet and Chella of the Broken Ears. How it will happen will be dramatic – I continue to like the theory of a Clan-induced avalanche during the upcoming tournament. The Clan’s goals are probably as unclear to them as to me, but presumably they will be looking for opportunities for looting and plundering and general mayhem. GRRM has used coming face to face with the past to help Theon overcome Reek and have Arya surface from Mercy and her other Faceless Men personalities. Following the pattern, on being confronted by people she knows from the past, Sansa will break through the Allayne persona. Sansa surely understands that Tyrion is the heir of Casterly Rock. The rules are that males inherit before females, and Jaime renounced his inheritance when he joined the Kingsguard. To divert the Clans from laying waste to The Vale, Sansa should come forward, remind the Clans of their past service with Tyrion, how well they profited from that service, and ask for their help in claiming Casterly Rock in her husband Tyrion’s name. She should promise them gold and treasure and plenty of action in return for their help. GRRM can have Sansa say something like “I am Lady Lannister, the Lady of Casterly Rock, and as you have heard Tyrion say, in his name, I promise you that a Lannister always pays his debts.” The plot possibilities that would be opened if Sansa were to claim Casterly Rock would impact most of the theories about where WoW is going. It would be a good fit for some theories. GRRM promised that the readers will get to “see Casterly Rock.” He didn’t say, but maybe we’ll see it conquered by a Stark via her marriage duties, upholding her husband’s claim. Among other things, taking Casterly Rock would add to Sansa's unequalled position in Westeros. Sansa has a claim to Winterfell, is second in line after Edmure’s (yet to be born) child to Riverrun, has a close ally in Peter Baelish, the Lord Paramount of the Riverlands, and another close ally in Robert "Sweetrobbin" Arryn, the Lord Paramount of The Vale. The Knights of the Vale have been itching for action - they would want to join the clans in fighting for Sansa's claim to the Westerlands. What does Cersei hold more dear than her Lannister heritage? Maggie the Frog’s prophecy to Cersei will be fulfilled. What about the charges of regicide for Joffrey’s death and patricide for Tywin’s murder? Sansa might be able to win the clans to her side with her insistence that both she and Tyrion are innocent, that there was a plot to deny Tyrion his rightful heritage. How, after all, could Tyrion have murdered Tywin while escaping from the dungeon 100s of feet below the well-guarded Hand’s quarters? The Clans witnessed first hand how poorly Tyrion was treated by his family and could be inclined to believe such a story. Even if they are skeptical, the Clans and the Vale armies are anxious to fight for something. Interested to hear your thoughts.
  7. It has been years since I read a post on Westeros.org by @sweetsunray detailing her Giant’s Lance Avalanche theory. The evidence laid out in the essay is convincing in an “of course!” sort of way, but a key factor is missing: What – or rather, who – initiates the avalanche? Mountain people (and ski patrols) know about snow. They know when conditions are right for an avalanche and they know how to get one started. My first whirlwind read of the books left me thinking that the Mountain Clans had a role to play in Sansa’s story line, but it takes more than a breezy read to find supporting evidence. A more leisurely re-read finds me having just finished the last Alayne (Sansa) chapter in AFFC, I thought I’d re-visit Westeros.org to see what recent thinking has been about the Vale. Thanks to @Phylum of Alexandria (I lived there for 25 years and am okay with thinking about its residents as a distinct phylum) for including a link to Shadrich, Morgarth and Byron – Mythological weave of Ice & Fire (sweeticeandfiresunray.com) where SweetSunRay’s excellent work is compiled. The extended Shadrich, Morgath, and Bryon (nicknamed the “Ivy Special Ops Team”) essay is outstanding – love it all. But again, the role of the Mountain Clans is given short shrift. I’m posting here to point out GRRM’s clues that Sansa will meet the Mountain Clans again and what that might portend. To start at the beginning, As Tyrion and Bronn are leaving the Vale after the Trial by Combat, they are waylaid by the Clans in AGoT Tyrion VI. Tyrion makes the clans his allies through promises. Tyrion has clearly thought about how to achieve the most extravagant and vengeful promise, but “was never given the chance” to flesh out his plan. He introduces his father to the new allies in Tyrion VII (AGoT) Whatever Tyrion’s plans may have been then, bringing the clans into his orbit laid the groundwork for Sansa’s arc to intersect with the clans. The “Ivy Special Ops Team” theory speculates that Ser Byron is actually Sandor Clegane glamoured with the important role of being able to conclusively identify Sansa. Why not? But Sandor’s familiarity with Sansa is not unique in the Vale. In ACoK Sansa tells us numerous times that she works hard to look her best in public because Joffrey demands it. She is successful and it is noticed. In Tyrion VI (ACoK), Acting Hand Tyrion sits on the Iron Throne from which he can look over the crowd: On his return from Kings Landing, Ser Cleos Frey tells Catelyn: Although both Tyrion and Ser Cleos are talking about the same event, it’s likely that Sansa’s daily demeanor is studied by everyone at court because of her beauty, her care in making sure that she looks her best, and the gossip/news value of her relationship with Joffrey. In addition to her regular appearances at court, GRRM makes sure that the reader is aware that Sansa is specifically known to the clansmen. In Sansa III (ACoK), Joffrey has Sansa stripped and beaten in open court. The scene is well known because Tyrion puts a stop to it and the Hound covers her with his cloak. Both Bronn and Timett son of Timett are with Tyrion in the throne room. What happens next has not been as thoroughly discussed by the community. Sansa is brought to Tyrion’s (the Hand’s) apartments where she watched over by clansmen. In the Tower of the Hand Sansa is cleaned up, tended to by Maester Frenken, and falls asleep. When she wakes, she finds Chella of the Broken Ears clan guarding her door: Later, Tyrion offers clansmen as guards: Sansa refuses, returning to her own quarters, but the clues have been delivered: Sansa is recognizable to everyone who frequented King Joffrey’s court and, in particular, to clansmen of the Mountains of the Moon who also understand that “the halfman” thinks she’s important. The clans have returned home. There are no POVs to tell the reader for a certainty that the clans know that Tyrion and Sansa married or that both are now on the run, but both are topics of conversation among travelers and at every inn. In ASoS, Arya hears that the clans have become more dangerous since returning to the mountains: One of Sansa’s skills is understanding familial relationships and implications for inheritance: The likelihood that Timett son of Timett is the son of Elys’ and Alys’ fourth daughter has been theorized before. What is needed to make it clear that Timett’s claim supercedes Harry the Heir’s is bringing Timett and Sansa (and/or Littlefinger) together. Finally, after all these words, here’s my theory: · On the day of the Tourney, with the Vale’s knights, gentry, commons, assembled at the base of the Giant’s Lance, the Mountain Clans precipitate an avalanche that descends on the Gates of the Moon. Many people die – including Harry - and many are trapped beneath the snow such as those on the Lord’s viewing stand – Sweetrobin, Sansa, Littlefinger, the Royce’s and other Lords Declarant. · It seems likely that the “Ivy Special Ops Team” survives as well – maybe their pavilion is located well away from the base of mountain. · If Sansa’s warging/skinchanging ability is ever to develop this is the time. It is widely accepted that sensory deprivation, particularly sight, is key - Bran’s time in Winterfell’s crypts, Arya’s blindness at the House of Black and White. Sansa could reach out to John Arryn’s favorite falcon to help pinpoint where rescuers should dig. · Whether helped by telekinesis or not, those on the Lord’s viewing stand are rescued after some period of time. · The clans are wildlings – they steal women. · Sansa is recognized and conversations ensue. Tyrion tells us that Sansa “is good at this” – “this” being soothing and flattering people, making them feel special – and she’s been tutored in statecraft by Littlefinger as well as by observation. She can suggest marriages - Timett and Miranda seems like a pretty good match for example. The aftermath of all this is that Sansa helps bring about an alliance of the Vale powers that be and the wildlings, much as John Snow tried to do at the Wall. Marriages are made, the forces of the Vale are integrated, Team Ivy is strengthened by the inclusion of the Special Ops Team, maybe the Blackfish shows up and helps pull the forces together. The Vale becomes perhaps one of, if not the, most powerful military force in Westeros. Littlefinger remains an important player, but Sansa’s star is rising. She doesn’t fully understand about Littlefinger until she meets up with Jeyne Poole. He has until then. But that’s a story for another day. What do you think?
  8. It has been years since I read a post on Westeros.org by @sweetsunray detailing her Giant’s Lance Avalanche theory. The evidence laid out in the essay is convincing in an “of course!” sort of way, but a key factor is missing: What – or rather, who – initiates the avalanche? Mountain people (and ski patrols) know about snow. They know when conditions are right for an avalanche and they know how to get one started. My first whirlwind read of the books left me thinking that the Mountain Clans had a role to play in Sansa’s story line, but it takes more than a breezy read to find supporting evidence. A more leisurely re-read finds me having just finished the last Alayne (Sansa) chapter in AFFC, I thought I’d re-visit Westeros.org to see what recent thinking has been about the Vale. Thanks to @Phylum of Alexandria (I lived there for 25 years and am okay with thinking about its residents as a distinct phylum) for including a link to Shadrich, Morgarth and Byron – Mythological weave of Ice & Fire (sweeticeandfiresunray.com) where SweetSunRay’s excellent work is compiled. The extended Shadrich, Morgath, and Bryon (nicknamed the “Ivy Special Ops Team”) essay is outstanding – love it all. But again, the role of the Mountain Clans is given short shrift. I’m posting here to point out GRRM’s clues that Sansa will meet the Mountain Clans again and what that might portend. To start at the beginning, As Tyrion and Bronn are leaving the Vale after the Trial by Combat, they are waylaid by the Clans in AGoT Tyrion VI. Tyrion makes the clans his allies through promises. Tyrion has clearly thought about how to achieve the most extravagant and vengeful promise, but “was never given the chance” to flesh out his plan. He introduces his father to the new allies in Tyrion VII (AGoT) Whatever Tyrion’s plans may have been then, bringing the clans into his orbit laid the groundwork for Sansa’s arc to intersect with the clans. The “Ivy Special Ops Team” theory speculates that Ser Byron is actually Sandor Clegane glamoured with the important role of being able to conclusively identify Sansa. Why not? But Sandor’s familiarity with Sansa is not unique in the Vale. In ACoK Sansa tells us numerous times that she works hard to look her best in public because Joffrey demands it. She is successful and it is noticed. In Tyrion VI (ACoK), Acting Hand Tyrion sits on the Iron Throne from which he can look over the crowd: On his return from Kings Landing, Ser Cleos Frey tells Catelyn: Although both Tyrion and Ser Cleos are talking about the same event, it’s likely that Sansa’s daily demeanor is studied by everyone at court because of her beauty, her care in making sure that she looks her best, and the gossip/news value of her relationship with Joffrey. In addition to her regular appearances at court, GRRM makes sure that the reader is aware that Sansa is specifically known to the clansmen. In Sansa III (ACoK), Joffrey has Sansa stripped and beaten in open court. The scene is well known because Tyrion puts a stop to it and the Hound covers her with his cloak. Both Bronn and Timett son of Timett are with Tyrion in the throne room. What happens next has not been as thoroughly discussed by the community. Sansa is brought to Tyrion’s (the Hand’s) apartments where she watched over by clansmen. In the Tower of the Hand Sansa is cleaned up, tended to by Maester Frenken, and falls asleep. When she wakes, she finds Chella of the Broken Ears clan guarding her door: Later, Tyrion offers clansmen as guards: Sansa refuses, returning to her own quarters, but the clues have been delivered: Sansa is recognizable to everyone who frequented King Joffrey’s court and, in particular, to clansmen of the Mountains of the Moon who also understand that “the halfman” thinks she’s important. The clans have returned home. There are no POVs to tell the reader for a certainty that the clans know that Tyrion and Sansa married or that both are now on the run, but both are topics of conversation among travelers and at every inn. In ASoS, Arya hears that the clans have become more dangerous since returning to the mountains: One of Sansa’s skills is understanding familial relationships and implications for inheritance: The likelihood that Timett son of Timett is the son of Elys’ and Alys’ fourth daughter has been theorized before. What is needed to make it clear that Timett’s claim supercedes Harry the Heir’s is bringing Timett and Sansa (and/or Littlefinger) together. Finally, after all these words, here’s my theory: · On the day of the Tourney, with the Vale’s knights, gentry, commons, assembled at the base of the Giant’s Lance, the Mountain Clans precipitate an avalanche that descends on the Gates of the Moon. Many people die – including Harry - and many are trapped beneath the snow such as those on the Lord’s viewing stand – Sweetrobin, Sansa, Littlefinger, the Royce’s and other Lords Declarant. · It seems likely that the “Ivy Special Ops Team” survives as well – maybe their pavilion is located well away from the base of mountain. · If Sansa’s warging/skinchanging ability is ever to develop this is the time. It is widely accepted that sensory deprivation, particularly sight, is key - Bran’s time in Winterfell’s crypts, Arya’s blindness at the House of Black and White. Sansa could reach out to John Arryn’s favorite falcon to help pinpoint where rescuers should dig. · Whether helped by telekinesis or not, those on the Lord’s viewing stand are rescued after some period of time. · The clans are wildlings – they steal women. · Sansa is recognized and conversations ensue. Tyrion tells us that Sansa “is good at this” – “this” being soothing and flattering people, making them feel special – and she’s been tutored in statecraft by Littlefinger as well as by observation. She can suggest marriages - Timett and Miranda seems like a pretty good match for example. The aftermath of all this is that Sansa helps bring about an alliance of the Vale powers that be and the wildlings, much as John Snow tried to do at the Wall. Marriages are made, the forces of the Vale are integrated, Team Ivy is strengthened by the inclusion of the Special Ops Team, maybe the Blackfish shows up and helps pull the forces together. The Vale becomes perhaps one of, if not the, most powerful military force in Westeros. Littlefinger remains an important player, but Sansa’s star is rising. She doesn’t fully understand about Littlefinger until she meets up with Jeyne Poole. He has until then. But that’s a story for another day. What do you think?
  9. I think the entire KL-centered Iron Throne story represents "how we got here" background to the central story of "Ice and Fire," which is a story of the North and the Long Night and the Old Gods and Winter. If this is the case, action is moving north for the last two books. So if Sansa were to return to KL it would put her out of the main trajectory of the story. Maybe that will happen to preserve her to take part in post-War of Winter rebuilding. Or maybe she goes North because she and her remaining siblings have a role to play when Winter has come.
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