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Horza

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About Horza

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    of what use was the rule?

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  1. Horza

    International thread 2

    This is odd, I thought we'd actually hit common ground on the understanding that the US had agreed on a policy of trying to "end" Maduro's government by any means short of war and assassination. You seem to think that should preclude speculation about covert action and I can't think why, as on any assessment of the history of policies like this, covert action frequently appears as a tool of statecraft. It'd be quite exceptional if that wasn't the case here. Naturally we can't know what form that takes, and I agree that any speculation as to the extent or nature at this point wouldn't be productive, but your argument is that speculation that covert action is part of this policy has no fundamental basis in fact. Arguing that history is inadmissible and absent some spectacular disclosure we must assume a government whose Secretary of State tweets about power outages like he's holding Gotham City to ransom is a tabula rasa for US Latin American policy is quite something. And by the way: Spockydog speaks for himself. Cheers. *whoosh* There's a lot of douchebags out there, it's true. You're strawmaning here and I don't get why. All I've maintained in this exchange is that the US government has a policy to overthrow the Venezuelan government by all means short of invasion or (likely) assassination. You at one point agreed with that. For reasons yet unexplained, you don't think such a policy amounts to attempting a coup and keep on bringing up assassination conspiracies.
  2. Horza

    International thread 2

    I don't see the relevance of modern international relations terminology to the argument that doing everything short of invasion or assassination to overthrow a government is not the same thing as staging a coup. It's strange that you're even adding external military action to the criteria for a coup, and it's odd that you've left covert action out of the picture. More worrisome for who, exactly? (That's a note-perfect Megan McCardle parody, by the way. Chapeau). Dan Davies, like I said, a smart guy. Well worth reading on almost any subject and currently has a book out on dodgy lying scoundrels. Here, I'll excerpt the important bit: Not really tangential. It's the same people, with an even less competent president. From what I understand the logistics really don't stack up for an invasion, but there are so many other ways measures short of war can result in a disastrous conflict and no reason to believe this crowd would stop short at the threshold of a military coup and civil war.
  3. Horza

    International thread 2

    I think military action and assassination are unlikely, but I really don't see the distinction between doing anything short of those things to "end" a government and staging a coup. And when it comes to ruling out reckless and downright murderous pathways to that goal, the personnel involved in this policy are more than a just a "concern". As a smart guy said about many of the same people fifteen years ago: These people have no human rights track record worth the name and have built their careers on the stubborn pursuit of grandiose visions of regime change abetted by uh, kinetic solutions. They've earned their reputation and I think we shouldn't withhold due credit.
  4. Horza

    International thread 2

    Depends on the standard of proof. I don't know how someone reads that Pompeo tweet about the blackout without coming away with the impression that this is an administration committed to removing Maduro one way or another. It's not going to seal the deal in court but taken with everything else, I'm sort of baffled at why anyone would require anything further to regard it as quite likely that the US government has decided on a policy of the overthrowing the Venezuelan government if feasible.
  5. Horza

    International thread 2

    You mean beyond ramping up oil sanctions on an economy in crisis, the appointment of Elliott Abrams, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo tweeting like a supervillan?
  6. Horza

    UK Politics: Deal, or No Deal. To May and Beyond.

    From my distant perch I don't see where this certainty about now or never comes from. May is running out of time to find something that will satisfy the DUP, but as of this week she still has threads to cling to. In a few weeks they'll be snipped off by Barnier et al, and she'll have to go to a vote and lose, which to me seems like a pretty good time to ask the DUP how they feel.
  7. Horza

    UK Politics: Deal, or No Deal. To May and Beyond.

    Cos they hadn't prised away the DUP, no? Without whom a confidence vote was going to fail. The margin might be pyrrhic, but even if it isn't, it's unlikely to be large enough to stave off a big loss whenever she puts her plan to parliament, and when that happens she'll again be in a hopeless cul-de-sac. A victory today is almost certainly going reflect the absence of confidence in alternatives to her incumbency, not its renewed credibility.
  8. Horza

    UK Politics: Deal, or No Deal. To May and Beyond.

    This is the moment your entire political class turns into reality TV contestants. There's no going back. Once they get a taste, it's all politicians and the hacks who cover them are going to want for the rest of time. And with a whole PMQs scheduled and this Brexit thing as a subplot the spectacle is going to be *kissing fingers motion*. From the Antipodes, buon appetit!
  9. Dutton's sorta finished, imo. Even without an s44ing he's on a tight margin in Dickson and his prospects of becoming Opposition Leader after the Coalition gets bodied in May are terrible given that he's the champion of the boofhead wing and its credibility as voice of the Silent Majority is suddenly in question. If he somehow managed win over the survivors there's also the fact that he's got no record of appealing to anyone who isn't rusted on.
  10. Horza

    US Politics: Paradise Lost

    I did that deliberately because it's what the Trump people want, it's what the Clintonian triangulators know they want - hence that concession to 'issues of cultural identity' - and nothing short of delivering that (and probably not even that) will satisfy them. They want the white picket fence world they remember from childhood or imagine their grandparents lived and they think that will come back when there's no shady outsiders wandering into frame. That's their selling point, and centre-left triangulators will keep on losing this auction because there will always be another bidder offering more. That was obvious in the 90s, long before Libya when Le Pen pere, Jorg Haider and Pim Fortuyn were playing this game. It was obvious in 2010 when places like Alabama with hardly any immigrants at all started passing 'papers please' deportation laws. You and I agree that the way the world is going we can't leave immigration politics to the far right, but that's what this proposal does. Every attempt to meet people's Very Real Concerns by cutting intake, restricting benefits, policing status has entrenched the politics of the wall and encouraged the right to bid higher still. We fight this by telling the real story on what really happened to everyone's quality of life, not trying to tell the far right's out of one half of our mouth.
  11. Horza

    US Politics: Paradise Lost

    What is it about the above two examples that makes you think this anti-immigrant upsurge is related to immigration levels, or that centre-left parties moving to heavily restrict nonwhite immigration is going to be effective at undermining this movement?
  12. Horza

    US Politics: Paradise Lost

    They weren't lifetime appointees, however.
  13. Horza

    US Politics: Paradise Lost

    Is this a joke post or are you really endorsing a war that has millions of on the brink of starvation because it brings defence industry jobs?
  14. Horza

    Congratulations brook and karaddin!

    Late to the party, but congratulations to you both and best wishes! (For the record it was a nice sunny arvo and then an enigmatic dusk, with sea and sky each other's mirror as wyverns and manticores frolicked betwixt the silhouetted towers.)
  15. There's nothing in the rules or convention preventing December or January elections, just basic common sense. The crossbench won't vote down this government cos "stability" so May it is. The only thing that would change this equation is if the Libs and Nats just can't keep it together and more people quit the party or resign. It might happen, cos it seems like the right and the moderates will keep flinging turds at each other for the rest of the term, but you'd think self preservation would stop them short of absolute mayhem.
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