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Sophelia

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About Sophelia

  • Rank
    Unfinished

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  • Gender
    Female
  • Location
    North East England
  • Interests
    writing fantasy novels
    walking
    visiting historical sites and castles
    geeky computer stuff
    cognitive psychology and counselling skills
    Mentat
    learning Spanish (just started)

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  • Name
    Sophie

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13,151 profile views
  1. Sophelia

    UK Politics: The End of May

    Yes.
  2. Sophelia

    UK Politics: The End of May

    I know it's easy to be angry and frustrated, but it's not good to lump a whole load of people together and insult them. People are voting Brexit Party for all sorts of reasons, from anger and desperation at being ignored, to feeling that if you hold a referendum then the result should be respected (a view which is perfectly reasonable even if you disagree). However as I said in the EU thread, I do think that a lot of people have been voting in these MEP elections strategically on the Brexit/Leave policy only rather than looking at what other views the candidates might have. Indeed loads of reasonable and sensible people have been all over twitter and this board making that argument. I happen not to have taken that perspective myself, but both Remainers and Leavers have done so. Now I'm actually going to quote a UKIP candidate (Richard Elvin, according to the Guardian) talking about the main Brexit candidate in the North East who you might actually agree with:“When the people of the north-east wake up and find their chief representative is a Thatcherite Scottish Tory who lives in France they may regret it..."
  3. Sophelia

    UK Politics: The End of May

    My hope has died.
  4. Sophelia

    European Parliament Elections 2019

    EU elections visualiser (can be done by seats in the European Parliament or map by country): https://www.politico.eu/2019-european-elections/ Take care as it is currently based on 14 exit polls - small text near the top says how many actual results are in.
  5. Sophelia

    European Parliament Elections 2019

    Ah thanks for the clarification.
  6. Sophelia

    European Parliament Elections 2019

    Thanks for the commentary on what's happening in Germany. I didn't realise some actual results were out yet. It's good that climate change might be going up the agenda across many nations simultaneously...
  7. Sophelia

    European Parliament Elections 2019

    I'm reading that turnout for the European Elections has generally increased (more people voting in more countries), for example definitely up in Spain. It's good that more people are getting engaged, but I wonder if the vote will be polarised more between pro-EU and eurosceptic parties or whether that'll just be the UK.
  8. Sophelia

    European Parliament Elections 2019

    I'm extremely nervous about the results in the UK. We only got these elections by the skin of our teeth (if Brexit negotiations had been successful, we would have left the EU), and nobody really knows whether the MEPs elected now will take their seats or be members of the European Parliament for more than a few months. So I get the impression that most people have used the MEP elections as a proxy referendum to show their preference for Leave or Remain, rather than looking carefully at whether the candidates selected would attend and contribute well or would represent their views on other issues in the EU. Turnout is slightly up on last time, and some people have presented statistics suggesting that this is mainly in constituencies which voted Remain. If it turns out as a result that more people have voted for parties explicitly supporting Remain than parties explicitly supporting Leave, many people will take this as confirming the speculative polls which suggest that the population as a whole has on average shifted towards a Remain stance. However I think this would be a bit unfair, as I can imagine many Leave supporters may not have voted for MEPS at all, either in protest at the concept, or because they optimistically expect that the UK will leave the EU so the MEPs will be redundant. It's also muddied by Labour's ambiguous messages**. I voted Labour because in my area of the UK, our MEPs have worked really hard, are Remainers as individuals, and belong to the EU's Party of European Socialists and Progressive Alliance which I believe has the strongest chance of countering the more right-wing elements and the greatest chance of overtaking the European People's party faction. My second choice would have been Green, but they would be a bit more of an unknown, and I didn't want to treat this as a referendum or British general election. I have expressed my objections to Labour's Brexit position in a different way, by resigning my Labour party membership. I would be disappointed if my area loses one or both our Labour MEPs (we have two currently), though if a projected Lib Dem/Green surge does force Labour to reconsider its Brexit policy I'll take that as pretty good compensation. In my area we have three MEPS - the third one was a useless UKIP one. I assume he'll be replaced by a Brexit party MEP, just hoping not two of those - I wish none but that would be over-optimistic by all the projections I have seen. Overall I'm just really anxious about the number of Brexit Party* MEPs the UK might send to the European Parliament. My area will declare first, so I am bracing myself. *From what I gather unaligned in the EU, but if they turn up at all, likely to be rather uncooperative and Far Right. **And some EU UK residents being denied their right to a vote owing to various errors and delays.
  9. Sophelia

    UK Politics: Awaiting MV3

    If you choose your area on this website, you get quite a nice interactive tool down the bottom to see how many seats go to who if you change the percentage votes by reducing one and increasing another. https://www.bestforbritain.org/vote I didn't actually find it that useful for working out who to vote for, but it was a good visualisation of the tipping points for different outcomes.
  10. Sophelia

    UK Politics: What Goes DUP Must Come Down

    OK, does anyone know how many Conservatives are in the Cabinet? Looking at the MP list it looked like 32 Tories didn't vote, but some of those might have been just absent or non-committal. A BBC page from last November suggests 22 plus Theresa May. Just trying to work out what the most popular options are. From today: People’s Vote on whatever deal: 268 votes for, 295 against (27 votes short) - but missing Cabinet Customs Union: 264 votes for, 272 against (8 votes short) - but missing Cabinet Previously: Theresa May’s deal 2nd go: 242 votes for, 391 against (149 votes short) So looking at these results, it seems to me that the closest result is Custom's Union - that would presumably be a greater difference if the Cabinet had voted too (against), but there are a lot of MPs who abstained, who might be persuadable maybe. I don;t know exactly the full details of that form of Brexit* but it would be a softer one. *because it just says any form of Brexit would have to include it (would also be fulfilled by Remaining, though doesn't say that explicitly)
  11. Sophelia

    UK Politics: What Goes DUP Must Come Down

    Well, nothing bad happened, but nothing good happened either (except ratifying the A50 short extensions). The Guardian has a nice table where you can check what your MP voted on the 8 proposals.
  12. Sophelia

    UK Politics: What Goes DUP Must Come Down

    I quite liked this tweet: Gah - can't work out how to embed it, link here, quoted below: "So if I understand the situation, Theresa May doesn't have enough support to resign successfully." <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-partner="tweetdeck"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">So if I understand the situation, Theresa May doesn&#39;t have enough support to resign successfully.</p>&mdash; Liam Kirkaldy (@HolyroodLiam) <a href="https://twitter.com/HolyroodLiam/status/1111016366063136768?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 27, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
  13. Sophelia

    UK Politics: What Goes DUP Must Come Down

    Haha - who knows. I guess it depends what motivates her - if she is really all about what is best for the party she may then think it is better to stay on than let one of the others take over (kind of my view too - she is horrendous but the alternatives seem worse) - but if she is thoroughly fed up of the whole thing and feels she has done her bit and there is nothing more she can do, and that someone else could take over without risking a General Election, she might resign anyway (but I would guess not since she has been so absolutely adamant so far - kind of like Corbyn really).
  14. Sophelia

    UK Politics: What Goes DUP Must Come Down

    Good. That would be a relief. Though it still means worse things are possible (No Deal),. but I would hope Parliament saves us from that at least.
  15. Sophelia

    UK Politics: What Goes DUP Must Come Down

    That's an interesting bit of psychology, NHS (heh). That would I think would fall under a 'sunk cost' fallacy - once people have put a lot of money/effort into something they have difficulty admitting/realising that it would be better to get out of it than continue. I don't get the Labour party either (I'm still in it currently!) in that I don't understand why they would abstain on whether the fallback position should be Revoke or No Deal (I may have totally misunderstood this). As I understood it, only a minority in Parliament (mainly Tories) were willing to go for No Deal at all, as it is such a destructive outcome. It seems to me that after all this time there is no satisfactory solution and in order to avoid No Deal happening by accident (or on purpose), and to prevent something hasty being put forward because of the impending deadline, it would be better to Revoke, take the time-pressure off and be able to reconsider things at leisure (e.g. do a fully worked-out Brexit plan rather than a half-baked one, with a referendum to check people are OK with it) - or just say there's no way to make it work currently. I get that the Brexit people are very angry and frustrated and want out now, but any Brexit will take years to organise properly anyway. And at this point it's not even certain that the majority of people still want Brexit anyway, so why spend years and loads of money on it when there are much more pressing needs (poverty, NHS, schools justice services, disability support etc,). OK, I'm slightly taking devil's advocate here because the politicians know that the people who voted Leave would find that unacceptable. I understand why it's hard for them therefore to abandon Brexit, but I believe that Brexit will exacerbate for many of those people the problems they already have, and politicians need to be thinking more long-term how to address the deprived areas (one of which I live in). I'm in the Labour party because I believe their hearts are in the right place and they are committed to addressing this, but my fear is that if they have to try and implement their reforms in a post-Brexit UK, they will not have the funds to implement it properly, and will spend all their time just trying to plug the holes left by Brexit and will get blamed for the decline in people's lives and voted out. I simultaneously believe Corbyn is really trying hard to do the right thing and that he believes he has the answer which will satisfy both sides (a Brexit but a soft one), but at the same time I feel he has the wrong priorities because as I said leaving the EU will be colossally expensive and isolating for little gain, and Labour in power could be a good influence on the EU, hence benefitting a lot more people, and Corbyn's refusal to listen to the members of his own party drives me up the wall, the same time I admire what I see as him trying to be all things to all men and to listen to that 52% of referendum voters, many of them previously disenfranchised voters, who voted Leave, to make sure they don't become disenfranchised again. Argh.
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