Nevets

So, he manipulated Jon by making arguments against joining and suggesting Jon wait a few years, after he has experienced more of life?  Reverse psychology, perhaps?  And Jon's joining spites Ned by getting him out of a jam, since Ned no longer has to find a place for Jon since he can't stay at Winterfell and Ned doesn't want him in KL.  And of course Benjen is bitter and resentful about the fact that he has made it all the way up to being First Ranger, one of the top jobs in the NW.  Definitely a winning theory. 

I think he is either in the Far North or Skagos, doing something important for the Nights Watch.  I expect we will meet up with him in the next book.

15 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

Poisoning Joffrey would create a bigger stir.  But Tyrion choking to death would still probably cause quite a stir as well.  And once again, I think we’re overestimating how hard it would have been for Sansa to have slipped out without anyone even choking to death.  We hear from the Kingsguard just how hard it was to keep track of everyone during the wedding especially at the time of the Feast.  The only one really paying attention to Sansa at the wedding, was Tyrion.  And if he was the one choking to death, he’d be in a pretty bad position to note her leaving early.

If Tyrion choked to death, would there have been any real suspicion to go around?  After all don’t forget the whole point of the poison.  The plotters were hoping that it would appear to all that the victim choked to death on his food.  It was Joffrey’s death and Cersei’s accusation against Tyrion, that first laid the idea that a poison was used.

Cersei would not have made that accusation if Tyrion had choked to death.  Unfortunately for Tyrion, his death wouldn’t lead to a lot of questions because he wasn’t terribly popular, even among his own family.

The only real negative for Tywin would be that his death would free up Sansa to be taken to Highgarden for marriage.  But it probably wouldn’t be a big enough negative to date lose Highgarden as an ally.  Which is the whole reason they had to rush the marriage of Tyrion and Sansa.  They knew if push came to shove, they couldn’t stop Olenna from taking Sansa to Highgarden to marry her off.

Sansa is seated next to Tyrion, who is her husband.  As such, she is likely to be noticed if anything happens, and leaving could be difficult.  Besides, what do you think her reaction will be if she sees her husband choking next to her?  Run screaming from the room?  Not if she's the same person we saw at the Blackwater, when she assisted a visibly injured Lancel, tending his wounds and seeing he got medical help.  She'd probably be kneeling next to Tyrion trying to help him  And even if she isn't, leaving unaccompanied is likely to be difficult.  It certainly isn't something a sensible planner would count on.  At least with Joffrey, there is likely going to be a commotion, and she has no connection to him so slipping out is a reasonable possibility.

Olenna doesn't have to put the poison in the chalice herself.  I have always suspected Garlan, who is family, at the table, and tall enough to slip the poison into the chalice.  

@CamiloRP

Theories I have come up with, but have serious doubts are actually true.

1.  Roose Bolton knew who Arya was at Harrenhal, or at least had a pretty good idea.  She talks like a noble, has clear Northern sympathies, and matches the description of Robb's younger sister.  Making her his page means he can keep an eye on her, and it somewhat protects her, and it puts her with Elmar Frey, Arya's betrothed.  By the time he refuses to take her with him to Riverrun, he has changed sides and would lose her to Robb.  

It's a weak case, though.  Everything has alternate explanations and nothing has come of it so far, except for Roose's discourse to Theon about how nobles talk.  I think Martin was keeping his options open, but abandoned the idea.  Still, if it happens that Roose knew, I won't be too surprised.

2.  Arya's murder of the insurance guy was faked.  It was a test, and only a test.  The poison was fake, and he is alive and well, and hanging out where Arya doesn't.  We never see his body, and if I recall correctly, the FM never say directly that he is dead.  Also, the coin was not recovered.  A gold coin that kills anyone who bites it could leave a trail of bodies; not the FM way.

Again, a weak case.  We know the poison itself exists (Oldtown Pate), and there was the possibility of Arya killing him without notifying the FM.  And the poison could wear off or not last long.  Also, I don't know where it would lead story wise.

3.  The savage giant Sansa slays is Whoresbane Umber.  Didn't see that coming, did you?  The Ghost of High Heart often refers to people by their sigil, and Umer sigil is a giant with broken chains.  And Whoresbane is currently supporting the Boltons, an act of treason.  

Still, slaying implies active participation, and I can't see Sansa doing it herself.  Also, it's going to be quite some time before she makes her way north, and any ramifications of his support for Bolton will likely play out before then, if in fact he really is supporting him.  In any case, I think the giant is Littlefinger, whose ancestral sigil is the Titan of Braavos.  It's obvious that Sansa will have to deal with him at some point.

I have a soft spot for the idea that Jyana Reed, wife to Howland and mother to Meera and Jojen, is really Ashara Dayne in hiding.  Her death is so suspicious it practically screams "fake", nobody ever visits Greywater Watch, and the story Meera tells Bran mentions her quite a bit.

Still, I can't quite buy it.  I don't know why Ashara would feel the need to hide, the children don't match her description as I recall, and if she is anyone we have heard of, my money is on Septa Lemore.

@CamiloRP A few comments.

What does Littlefinger bring to the table?  It's quite possible he provided the murder weapon.  The Strangler is described as rare, difficult to make, and costly.  And while maesters know how to make it, that fact isn't widely known.  The Tyrells may not have had a ready source.  The hairnet may be a method of getting the poison to the Tyrells as well as getting it into the feast.

Who put it in the wine?  Olenna doesn't have to be the one who administers it.  She can pass it to someone.  I've always suspected Garlan.  He's family, at the table, tall, and likely not the subject of attention at least less than Margaery and Olenna.

Poisoning the food.  There are a huge number of courses.  As such there is no assurance that your target will even eat the item you put the poison in.  With wine, you can be sure that Joffrey (or Tyrion, for that matter), will drink the wine in front of them.  If someone can introduce the poison into Tyrion's food, it should be even easier to poison his drink.  So I seriously doubt the poison was in the pie, especially since it is described as being administered in wine.

Sansa's departure.  If Tyrion is dying, and she is anywhere near, it is unlikely she will be able to leave.  Certainly anyone planning on exfiltrating her would need to assume that likelihood.  If Littlefinger wants Sansa for himself, the logical thing is to get her out first, then deal with Tyrion, or separate them, as is the case here.

I think we are better off trying to figure out how, and maybe why, Littlefinger and Olenna arranged things than in devising alternate scenarios that have no textual support.

@CamiloRP What is the purpose of the hairnet?  Is it poisoned; is it the murder weapon?  If it is, who handled it and how, and how did they get it into the pie without being obvious?  If it's not poisoned, why bother, and what happened to the missing stone?  I prefer answers from the text if possible, please.

Who would they fight?  Yes, there is war going on in the main series, and there was Robert's Rebellion, but nothing really in between.  You had 15 years of peace, and not much fighting even before that.  Easier to have guardsmen for law enforcement, and peasant leavies as needed.  If you have sellswswords, there isn't enough for them to do.  Also the Crown might not appreciate their vassals having what amounts to standing armies.  That's a bit too much of an alternate power base.

Two things worth mentioning:

Sansa received the hairnet from Littlefinger's agent right after the Blackwater.  At that time, Tyrion was not a factor for anyone.  So I doubt he was the intended target.

Tyrion's slice of pie was placed before him while he was in his seat at the table, next to Sansa.  If he eats and chokes, Sansa is going nowhere.  He wound up next to Joffrey because Joffrey was being a jerk.  The dwarves were gone by then.

@CamiloRP I've tried to analyze as a theory, without relying on LF's confession.  Here goes:

What we know:

LF knew someone fiddled with Sansa's hairnet.  Olenna Tyrell 'adjusted' it.  No one else is mentioned touching it.  One crystal was missing afterwards.  The crystal matches the description we have for the Strangler.

It is stated that the strangler is administered dissolved in wine.  No other method has been given.  Olenna was in proximity to Joffrey's chalice, as was Garlan, Margaery's brother.  Either could slip it in, with a warning to Margaery not to drink.  If drinking is unavoidable, she can spill it.  You lose the opportunity, but are no worse off than before.

Baelish visited Highgarden, giving plenty of opportunity for plotting.  He tells Sansa that he had his servants spread stories about Joffrey's violence and cruelty.  The Tyrells' meeting with Sansa is consistent with this.  They clearly had heard stories they didn't fully trust and were looking for confirmation and more detail.

The Tyrells have motive to kill Joffrey.  He is violent and cruel, and was abusive to his betrothed.  There is a reasonable fear Margaery could be a target of abuse.  And Loras, now a kingsguard, is known to be hot tempered.  A violent, and likely fatal, reaction to Margaery's mistreatment is a strong possibility.  Cersei told Ned that if Jaime had known Robert had hit her, Jaime probably would have killed Robert.  And Jaime is calm, cool, and collected compared to Loras.  Kingslayer stew coming up.  Even Sansa could see that coming.

Tommen is someone they can more easily mold into being a good husband, as well as being a better ruler than his brother, who showed signs of a tyrannical nature.  Nobody wants a repeat of Aerys II, which was where Joffrey seemed to be heading.

While I would not care to take this case to a modern court for literary purposes, it is good enough for me to conclude that Baelish and the Tyrells conspired to murder Joffrey.  The main flaw is Baelish's motive.  I suspect he has one, we just aren't aware of it yet.

For what it's worth, I don't think Sansa was intended as a fall guy, but a way to get the murder weapon in undetected.  The two sides don't trust one another, and this is a way for the Tyrells to put some distance between themselves and the weapon, In case of betrayal.

I also think the Tyrells were planning on it being passed off as accidental, while Baelish was intending on implicating Tyrion, especially after his marriage to Sansa.

1 hour ago, CamiloRP said:

I disagree, the story asks us:

"You are certain it was the wine that was poisoned?"

And I don't think we got a definitive answer, as Tyrion tells us, lying is to LF what shitting on the forest is to a bear.

Same thing with Aegon, the story poses a lot of questions about his identity, but I firmly believe we'll never get an answer about it, that doesn't mean he's Rhaegar's son.

 

I care little about the reaction time, and I found the theory while searching if anyone else had thought about it, because I thought about it by myself: I came up with the theory because it makes no sense for LF to want to kill Joffrey and even less for him to team up with Olenna: what does Olenna bring to the table? What does Petyr bring to the table form Olenna's POV? How did they broach the subject?

Also LF deinitely wants a dead Tyrion, as he wants to marry Sansa. And why didn't Olenna carry the poison in her person, instead of having to stealthily take it from Sansa without anyone notice? doesn't she have pockets? Then there's the possibility of someone other than Joff not drinking the wine, maybe even Margeary, or the chalice being knocked down, like it happened.

The detail of the reaction time is a minor inconsistency, but the plan explained by Littlefinger, a known liar, makes little sense. And if a known liar tells you something that makes no sense, it's likely a lie.

I trust Littlefinger as far as I can throw him.  But he knew about Olenna's actions with the hairnet, meaning he probably suggested it, and that the Tyrell's are involved.  Olenna doesn't carry it with her for fear of betrayal and discovery.  The Tyrells have no reason to want Tyrion dead; certainly not enough to go to the trouble of murdering him.  They have clear reason to want Jeffrey dead, both because of domestic violence and its ramifications (i.e., Loras), and the likelihood of Joffrey becoming a tyrant.

Jeffrey has bodyguards and is well protected; Tyrion is unprotected and takes no precautions.  Also, part of the plan is to get Sansa out.  But she is seated next to Tyrion, who is also her husband.  If he is choking, all eyes are on him, and her as well.  She is going nowhere.

I don't know Baelish's motives, but can guess.  A distraction to extricate Sansa, ingratiating himself with the Tyrells, gaining a hold over the Tyrells, or any or all of the above.

Oh, and we've been told more than once that the Strangler is administered dissolved in wine.  No other method has been given despite ample opportunity to do so (we even have one character who is learning about poisons).  So yes, the poison is in the wine.  Just tip off Margaery not to drink and let Joffrey go first.  We know he likes his wine.

2 hours ago, James West said:

Not going to happen with Arya.  Sansa is the female in the Tyrion triangle with Harry.  I predict Sansa will die and both men will lose her.

Arya's chance to have a love triangle has come and gone.  She is not going to make it all the way to the wall.  I am predicting Arya will die at the Twins. 

Harry is a red herring and a redshirt.  He won't be around very long.  I can see Sansa staying married to Tyrion, either as a blocking move or as a political partnership.  I'm pretty sure Baelish is romantically interested in Sansa.  I'm also sure the interest is not reciprocated.

I can see Arya in a triangle, with Gendry possibly one point and someone like Edric Dayne or Podrick Payne the other.  She and Edric seemed to get along well.  Arya is awfully young, though, so I don't know how far it would progress.  Though she is also precocious, curious, and reckless, so who knows?

Land of Always Winter

Highgarden

Tarth

Greywater Watch

Casterly Rock

9 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

No it doesn't. The wine is utterly refuted in the text. Literally every actual fact about the poisoning, from the very beginning of the plot to the event and everything afterward, shows without a doubt that it was the pie, and yet most readers still twist themselves into knots trying to put it in the wine -- not because that it was makes the most sense but because that's how they want it to be.

6 hours ago, CamiloRP said:

I'm a dumbass, I read your original comment wrong, I thought you where buying LF's story, hahahha.

I do believe the poison was in the pie and Tyrion was the target, however, I don't think that would ever be revealed, and the other explanation is wonky, sure, but not as wonky as all the "shiera seastar is gonna save the world" theories out there.

Once in this forum I argued for days with a dude who claimed Jaqen H'gar was Aegon...

If it's not revealed, it didn't happen.  We're not in the real world.

I will take this opportunity to express my utter disdain and hatred for the poison in the pie theory.  Its adherents seem to be under the mistaken impression we are reading "CSI: Westeros" or The Case of the Poisoned Prince instead of A Song of Ice and Fire.  Basing a theory on differences in reaction time to a poison is a bad idea.  GRRM tends to be careless about such details.

Other theories I hate include:

Bloodraven is the 'big bad' and responsible for every bad thing that has happened.

Littlefinger is the 'big bad' and is responsible for every bad thing that has happened.  The guy is an opportunist, not a master planner.

Robb's love potion.  Two teens alone, with an aggressive female?  No potion needed.

Mad Mouse = Howland Reed.

Mance hired the catspaw.

Fake Dany.  No good explanation of how or why a switch would occur.

Quentyn is still alive.

Arya will die and live on in her direwolf.  Ugh!

I'm sure I have forgotten some. And I haven't even bothered listing the huge number that are hard to take seriously.

The ones I have listed are hardy perennials.  Too many people take them seriously despite major flaws.  They keep popping up like weeds, and are about as welcome and hard to eradicate.

38 minutes ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

Assuming that Westeros is the size of South America, I would assume that there's got to be at least two different timezones at work.

Then again, I don't know how Planetos works in relation to our world. Has GRRM ever shed light on that?

The real world didn't get time zones until well into the 1800s.  Before that, nothing, including information, moved fast enough for it to matter.  Railroads changed that.

Same thing with Planetos.  Timekeeping isn't precise enough and things don't move fast enough for it to matter.

We've barely even met eight knights of the Vale.  Which means either there is going to be a bunch of guys chosen we've never heard of, or the plan falls apart and the Winged Knights never take the field in the first place.

My money is on door number two.  I think something major happens at the tournament that upsets all the applecarts.  I don't know what though.  Reveal of Sansa, revelation of major news, an attack of some kind, who knows.  But if it goes according to plan, I'll be surprised.  It would practically be a first for this series.  

On 3/24/2024 at 10:08 AM, Hippocras said:

I see your thinking, but I don't think it is so much that Harry has no heir, but rather that GRRM has not told us yet who it is. The reason he has not told us yet is that it is very much tied up with Littlefinger's scheming, so we would be able to predict some important surprises if we had all the info. He is deliberately concealing.

But this does not mean he has not given us any clues that we will be able to see clearly enough in retrospect, once we know. I think:

1. Both Ned and Robert were Arryn wards in the Vale in part because they were, by some degree, relatives of Jon Arryn. Yes, Jon's alliance with both families was born during the Ninepenny Kings conflict of 260 and could on the surface be unrelated to blood ties. Except not really. Not when you take in all the family tree hints spread here and there, and all the little hints dropped in the histories.

2. House Tully, meanwhile, was an important alliance for Jon because of how many Vale Houses have become inter-twined with Riverlands ones, affecting the internal dynamics of both regions. House Tully is the glue that suppresses the Bracken-Blackwood dynamics wherever they spread.

3. While the Arryn tree is very much incomplete, we know, for example, that Jon Arryn had cousins. Which means, even though we have absolutely no information on the subject in an actual family tree, that his father Jasper Arryn had so-far unmentioned brothers and sisters. So the question is simple: Which families contain their descendants? Jon was born 218-220 AC. So Jasper was born in 206 AC at the absolute latest, an probably quite a bit earlier than that. He may have already born in the year of the First Blackfyre rebellion 10 years before that. Which means that Jasper's lifetime, and the alliances his father made on behalf of him and his siblings were very much tied up with the Blackfyre era.

4. The late arrival of Corbray reinforcements at the Redgrass Field may indicate that House Corbray was on the fence during the first Blackfyre rebellion. They may have had ties to House Bracken. It is a reasonable hypothesis based on this that Lord Donnel Arryn bought the Corbray support for the loyalist cause by betrothing his heir (Jasper or Japer's father) to a Corbray daughter. 

5. Another tid-bit we have that is of possible relevance is the tournament at Maidenpool in 208. I have, frankly, no idea WHY we have this information unless it is meant as an oblique clue. It is odd. The main thing that stands out of course is that even though Maidenpool is not in the Vale, almost all of the participants mentioned WERE from the Vale. Was this a wedding tournament? Someone connected to Houses Arryn, Royce and Hardyng in the year 208 married a Mooton?

Sorry, but the Vale, in and of itself, is not that important to the overall story.  It's important mainly because it's where Sansa is located; it's where she will learn the arts of politics and influence and begin the process of becoming a political player in Westeros. 

She will have to make do with her already known connection to Sweetrobin, combined with her newly acquired talents.  I see no indication that GRRM is setting up anything else unless it is to fall under LF's thrall.  And that doesn't require a newfound heir either.  Harry has no heir not because GRRM is hiding something, but because it really doesn't matter for the story.

On 3/22/2024 at 10:24 AM, Hippocras said:

So what are your theories on who comes after Harry in the Vale succession then?

My guess is that Harry won't die, if at all, until he is married, and at least has a child on the way.  Then the child would be heir.  If he dies childless, it probably means Sweetrobin is safe.  Possibly LF could work something out with his bastard's mother and arrange for legitimation, under LF's control of course. 

That Harry currently has no heir suggests that it won't matter as far as the story is concerned.  Sorry to go meta, but sometimes you have to.

I suspect it is provable that Ashara is not Jon's mother.  For instance if she were already pregnant when Jon was conceived she couldn't be his mother.  If it could be proven that she can't be Jon's mother, it raises questions and what Ned is hiding.  Better to say nothing and give potential inquirers nothing to work with.

27 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

I don't see why Varys would want Ned killed. He's trying to slow things down in Westeros, per Illyrio's request, and killing Ned would have the opposite effect.

My suspicion is that if he was in the cells to kill Ned, that would be at Littlefinger's direction. Petyr most definitely does not want Ned repeating the tale of their last conversation, the one where he counseled Ned to bend the knee to Joffrey for now and then expose him at a more convenient time later.

Once Jaq was on the way to the Wall, of course, he could split at any time, but he didn't probably because he puzzled out who Arya was right away and immediately sensed that she might make a good acolyte in the House of Black and White. At this point, I don't see why anyone would have the slightest interest in Jon.

Jaqen couldn't split at any time; he was manacled in a wagon.  If he could free himself, he would have done so when the barn caught fire.  He has no reason to expect anyone to come by, or be willing or able to help if they do.  Ergo, he's stuck.

I doubt that he knew who Arya was, or was interested in her if he did know.  He probably learned at Harrenhal that the Lannisters were searching for Arya Stark, daughter of Ned.  Once he knows that, the pieces fall into place.

I doubt he thought she would make a good acolyte.  She's so unsuitable I have to wonder why they are keeping her around.  I think it's because as a scion of a great house, she is in a good position to help them with info, shelter, money, cover-ups, etc.  Essentially they're manipulating her into helping them, probably in exchange for being able to leave without consequence.

I am firmly convinced that Jaqen was in the black cells because GRRM put him there to advance Arya's story, and didn't give the whys and wherefores a second thought.  Even from a story point of view I don't think it matters.

Ned Stark isn't that difficult to kill.  He meets all types, and has no real security to speak of.  Also, I can't think of anyone who would want him dead badly enough to pay the enormous price for it.  Cersei and Littlefinger had some interest in his death, but had their own plans In place.

He wasn't there to join the Nights Watch.  The NW is the easiest out fit ever to infiltrate.  They take anyone - literally.  If you have a penis and can walk, they'll take you.  If not, they may take you anyway.  It's not like they do background checks.  If secret agent guy can't pretend to be a petty criminal, a down-and-outer, or someone escaping debts or a bad marriage, then he's not worth his paycheck.

I think he is on the cells because he got caught doing something ir being someplace he shouldn't have been.  It happens, even to the best.  And from what I've seen in Arya's story, I am beginning to think their reputation is a bit inflated.

I think after he left Harrenhal, he returned to Braavos to report and get a new assignment, which happens to be at the Citadel.

Quote

 

Tyrion is, I believe, in a locale where valyrian is used, so there is that connection.  I think "the valonqar" could be a nickname, nom de guerre, or title that a character becomes known by. Tyrion fits the bill nicely for that.  ( For the record, I've always suspected Tyrion for it.

Sorry, not really buying it.  As you point out, we fave a plethora of secret identities, mysterious disappearances and the like.  There are at least four characters widely believed by readers to be hiding under fake identities: Sandor Clegane, Gregor Clegane, Sarella Sand, and Jaqen H'ghar, and Septa Lemore practically invites speculation.  And if Lem Lemoncloak or Elder Brother turno out to be figures from the past, it won't be that much of a surprise.  Ashara Dayne's death screams "fake", Tysha's fate is unknown, and Benjen Stark and Tyrek Lannister are both possibly still alive.

I have yet to see a convincing case for a fake Daenerys.  She is the younger child and a girl, so is surplus.  If she dies or is never born it changes nothing.  I fact it's one less problem to deal with.  Also, having three dragons as companions is as clear as indication of her being Targaryen as you can get.  And being Aerys's daughter means she has to fear inheriting his madness, a big part of her story.

Ashara taking a newborn to Dragonstone is a non-starter.  She has no reason to do so, and it is under siege besides.  If she did have a living child, it is probably Allyria Dayne, Edric Dayne's suspiciously young aunt.

Tyrion's conflict of his family, especially his father, is such a big part of his story, I think his being Targaryen would largely negate that, and to little advantage.  Essentially, I fail to see the point.

If Podrick, ir someone like Brienne, has secret ancestry, it will most likely be a sort of easter egg: cool to know, but not really affecting the story.

Given the POV structure, how would we find out if Tywin was poisoned?  Oberyn is dead, Tywin is also dead, and buried.  Plus, it would effectively absolve Tyrion of responsibility for his father's death, and that's not the GRRM way.  He may have had health issues, plus if he isn't in bed or visible in the room, the privy is all that's left.

I don't think we know enough about Varys to analyze his actions.  I suspect for story reasons he will come to a bad end, but no idea how.

Littlefinger I think is overextended and has too many skeletons in his closet, especially ones Sansa won't like.  His obsession with her will be his undoing.

Brienne and Sam I think are possibilities.  Both have difficulty interacting with others, and Brienne seems awfully literal minded at times.