Nevets

I doubt it will come down to a physical confrontation. If it does, Littlefinger is probably doomed anyway. More likely we will see intrigue, influence and political machinations. There is plenty to work with; the guy's got more skeletons in his closet than a small cemetery. Something is bound to come tumbling out (for instance, GRRM didn't put whip marks on Jeyne Poole's back for kicks; something is going on). And when they do, I expect he will find out he has fewer friends than he thought. Myranda Royce is a bit of a wild card. She's interested in Harry, so may regard Sansa as a possible rival or threat. However, I don't think Sansa is really that interested so they could become friends as well. She could also tell Sansa interesting news. Imagine if Sansa finds out Arya is married to Ramsay. She might wonder what else she isn't being told, and why. Shadrick is also a bit of a mystery. I'm not convinced he knows Alayne is really Sansa. I think he is a red herring meant to distract us. There is also the possibility of visitors. Brianne (with Podrick, who knows Sansa) and Arya are both possibilities, especially if they have figured out she is hiding there. Another question to ponder is when, how, and why Sansa's identity is revealed. If Cersei is still around, any bridges LF has will be thoroughly burned.

I think the murder had as much to do with Stannis as anything. We know Lysa's motive was Jon's plan to foster Robert with Stannis, which she opposed. LF might have decided it was a good opportunity to cause trouble between Stannis and the Lannisters, plus it made Lysa available.

It should be remembered that Littlefinger is not the main character of the Vale story; Sansa is. The Vale is a good place to hide out, learn a few things, and then make her mark when she's ready. Littlefinger is there to be her mentor, likely antagonist, and general foil. I suspect she will figure out his true nature and take him down. At this point, Baelish appears well situated, but appearances can be deceiving. He has at least one powerful enemy, Yohn Royce, and many of his allies I suspect are the type to jump ship at the earliest opportunity. I don't think he's well liked. I don't think he has any real interest in the Riverlands, especially so long as there is still fighting. Lord of Harrenhal is a nice title, but I think that is all it is for him. I don't see Sansa as having any interest there either. I think her story is a Northern one. I think Baelish's weakness is Sansa. He's obsessed with her. I think his plan is to have her marry Harry and have his child. Then get rid of Harry, and marry Sansa, and become guardian of her child. Then get rid of Sweetrobin and rule the Vale through Sansa's child, and possibly advance from there. This would require Sansa's cooperation, which he probably won't get.

Until Daenerys hatched her dragons, there were no dragons, hence no reason to have any interest in them. So whatever Jaqen was doing in Kings Landing, it has nothing to do with dragons. As to why he was in the Black Cells, he probably got caught doing something or being someplace he shouldn't have been. It happens, even master criminals. Actually, I doubt Martin really gave any though as to why he was there. He probably returned to Braavos after he left Harrenhal, and was then sent to the Citadel to get info on dragons. By then, there would be interest in them thanks to Daenerys. Why he is still there I don't know, but I expect we'll find out. Probably gathering, or perhaps destroying, information of one type or another. As for Arya's coin, he probably figured that as a scion of a great house, she could be a useful asset for the FM in Westeros. Especially if she is desperate enough to use the coin, she can probably be manipulated into working for them and helping them out from time to time.

Hey, I never said I liked the guy! I don't. But I also don't think he's quite on the level of Roose, Littlefinger, and that sort either. He doesn't go out of his way to stir up trouble, like, say, Littlefinger. The Reynes were in open rebellion; Catelyn had kidnapped his son; and hanging Aerys out to dry was hardly a bad idea, though the sack probably was. Also, I hardly think he's totalitarian. He seems pretty hands off, though it's a bit hard to tell. We see him mostly in wartime, which is hardly typical. I'd probably put him in the next category up. Which hardly makes him a good guy. I can't believe I'm defending someone I don't even like. Somehow, I keep winding up doing that.

There are some characters that don't belong with the rest. I wouldn't put Joffrey at the bottom with the likes of Gregor, Ramsay, etc. He not quite that bad, and at 13 is still a work in progress. It's possible he may have been salvageable, or could have joined the total evil. We don't know because his development was cut off by his death. Tywin Lannister don't belong in near pure evil. Tywin I think is something of a Machiavellian. He does what he thinks necessary under the circumstances. You leave him alone, he'll leave you alone. His problem is he overdoes things. Also worth remembering that he was a capable Hand who ran a prosperous and peaceful land for many years. He's a ruthless SOB, and probably leans towards evil. Janos Slynt is a venal, corrupt opportunist. A miserable person and a villain if you're a Stark, but not really evil. Just an asshole. Cersei qualifies as near pure evil for reasons mentioned by many others. Tyrion is a bit complicated. I have no real problem with most of what he does in the first three books. But lately he is going downhill. He's probably closer to villainous benchmark, whatever that is. By the way, I'm not interested in checklists or box ticking, so don't bother.

If issues like lack of language diversity, absence of visible beaurocracy, poor economics and the like are the worst you can come up with with respect to world building, I'd say he's doing pretty well. Lots of fantasy worlds I've seen are so skeletal or inconsistent these wouldn't even be considerations. And he's pretty good when it comes to personal interactions, gender issues, treatment of children, how a feudal system really works and the like, which many fantasies handle somewhat badly. In any event, I think it is well known among fans that world building is not his strong suit. Creating interesting characters and situations is where he excels. World building, especially early on, doesn't seem to have been as much of a priority, though even so it is still better developed than most, though Essos is a bit of a mess. I get the impression he has little interest in that part of the world and it shows.

Why would Howland change his appearance? Nobody is looking for him, and no one knows what he looks like anyway. I'm looking for clues to point me to him being Howland and I'm not finding anything. And appearance is a clue GRRM likes to use. His stature and (supposed) cunning are nowhere near specific enough. He straight out tells Brienne he's interested in Sansa and offers to bring her along, and Brienne is the one being obvious? At least she isn't telling total strangers what she's up to and inviting them along. What if she accepts? He has to ditch her, or maybe try to kill her if she's too persistent, which might be difficult. She's bigger, better equipped, and probably more skilled than he is. I can figure out a clear narrative purpose for just about every secret identity that is taken halfway seriously. I can't figure one out here. It makes far more sense that Howland is in the North somewhere and that Shadrich is a hedge knight that maybe got lucky.

I am quite skeptical of the idea that Shadrich is Howland Reed in disguise. We've been given no obvious (at least in retrospect) clues suggesting they are the same person. In fact, what we have leads to the conclusion they aren't the same person. His actions towards Brienne make no sense if he's Howland. And I fail to see how his being Howland helps advance Sansa's story. GRRM is pretty good about giving us hints about secret identities. These revolve around descriptions, locations, and activities that clearly match up. We have no description for Howland himself, but we do for his children, and they don't match up well. Meera has brown hair and green eyes, and Jojen's eyes are described as a deep green. Neither is described as "fox-faced". Shadrich's eyes aren't mentioned, and his hair is orange (could be dyed, but why?). Also, Howland was known to use a spear and net, which he taught to Meera. Nothing about a sword, which Brienne assesses Shadrich is skilled with. Obviously, none of this prevents him from being Howland, but it certainly does nothing to help lead to that conclusion. Yes, Brienne might be a bit obvious, but so what? She's mostly asking smallfolk, who may or may not have been given Sansa's description. I kind of doubt it; we've seen from Arya's story that information for commoners is often unreliable. Even if connected to Sansa, the worst that could happen would be someone following her. Which did happen, but both Podrick and Hyle knew about her search already. He makes no attempt to find out her interest, or even if she is aware of the reward. She has the potential to be a useful ally, given that she is well equipped, capable in a fight, and though he doesn't know it, knew Sansa's mother. In fact, a smart conversation might tease that out. If he's worried about her attracting attention, simply tell her to keep her mouth shut. How does Howland being in the Vale help Sansa's story. She needs to start making stuff happen on her own, not being rescued by unknown benefactors. She's becoming a player, and that means identifying allies and seeking them out. I'm not sure how Howland's presence helps with that. Also, as others have pointed out, he's of more use causing trouble for the Boltons, Freys, and Lannisters in the North than anything he might accomplish in the Vale. I think Shadrich is simply a hedge knight in search of a payday. I doubt he's actively searching for Sansa, though he'd be happy to take the reward if he found her. I think he is in the Vale because it's a steady job. That Sansa is there is coincidental (GRRM does like his coincidences). Storywise, he's a red herring to distract us from other more real threats, most likely including Baelish.

I am not about to try and analyze a character's moral stature by simply using a checklist, especially one devised by someone else whose ideals, ideology, and thought processes are entirely unknown to us. That route leads to inconsistency, absurdity, and madness. Cersei is the worst of the Lannisters, with the possible exception of her son, who was a work in progress at his death. Deal with it. Tywin is next in the hierarchy, mostly because he simply doesn't care about the damage he does. He's the ultimate Machiavellian. Tyrion and Jaime are about equal. Tyrion started off quite decent, but has gotten worse, especially after Joffrey's death, while Jaime started off as pretty bad, but seems to cleaning up his act.

I try not to get too specific in my predictions. It comes out like fanfic and you wind up being wrong a lot. But here goes. North: Davos (4). Picks up Rickon and winds up as our eyes on Hardhome, which is one big fubar. Ends up going north. May make contact with Benjen. Doubt he gets south of the wall before the end of the book. Bran (5). Learns magical stuff from BR. Discovers info on Others and reason to distrust Children. Leaves with Meera and Hodor via the underground river. May communicate through WW but likely with difficulty. Mel (2). Covers events at the Wall after attack on Jon. Jeyne arrives and with Ramsay apparently in pursuit, is sent onward to Eastwatch and presumably Braavos. Stannis (6 between Asha and Theon). Takes Winterfell with help of Karstarks and playing dead. Messy fight though. Due to WF's ruined status, forced to go elsewhere (Cerwyn or White Harbor maybe). Jon (7). After awakening from coma, consolidates power and places loyalists in important spots. Deals with imminent Others threat, Stannis, and possibly Boltons. Remains LC but is de facto ruler of the North. Braavos and elsewhere: Arya (7). After preview, is on thin ice with FM. Eventually meets Jeyne and decides to return home. FM allow her to leave after extracting a promise to help if needed, probably their aim all along. Returns to Westeros with Jeyne in tow. Most likely goes to Riverlands, but White Harbor and Vale are also possible. Riverlands: (6 from Jaime and Brienne). There may be RW 2. If so, I am skeptical it will succeed. Security at Riverrun will be extremely tight. I think Jaime is being saved for a rescue of Frey prisoners. If so, he may die in the attempt. I think he is not long for this world. Kings Landing, etc.: (Cersei 5, Arianne 4). More politics. Cersei and Margaery both win trials. Lots of infighting. Oldtown: (Samwell 5, Aeron 2). Something is happening in Oldtown. Likely a fight with Euron. Possibly some sort of conspiracy at the Citadel as well. Slavers bay: (Daenerys 7, Tyrion 6, Victarion 2, Barristan 2). Dany consolidates Dothraki, Tyrion sorts out Meereen. Both head west, separately. Areo Hotah 1 Sansa (7) Learns politics in the Vale. Deals with LF. Heads North. Does not marry Harry. Around 80 chapters. Less than I thought. I'm assuming some characters join up. They can tell each other's stories, similar to AGOT. Arya, for example had five chapters, but important events were told by Jon, Sansa, and Eddard.

Even on its own merits, it's a lousy theory. First, there is nothing that specifically points to Howland. We have no matching description, which is how most secret identities have been sussed out, nor does he have specific knowledge or is in a particularly significant location. Second, what we do know doesn't match either. He has no reason to be on the road between Kings Landing and Duskendale. What was he doing in KL? Sitting on his ass? Why is he with the cheap merchant. Most importantly, why doesn't he make any effort to discover Brienne's motives. She's well equipped, can probably handle herself in a fight, and is female. And if she's interested in helping Sansa, why chase her off? Telling her he is seeking a reward and offering to share is stupid. If she accepts, you have an inconvenient companion you need to shake off. Or you chase off a potential useful ally. And why would he expect Sansa to trust him anyway, especially as she would appear to be safe, hidden away with family as protectors (Baelish is now her uncle, along with her cousin Robert. If Howland is pretending to be someone else, my money would be on the Hooded Man in Winterfell. But I don't think he's that either.

Brienne's not that careless. Remember, she was careful enough not to use Sansa's name while searching for her. So I doubt she would make it obvious she knows who she is. And if she does figure out Sansa is with Baelish at the Eyrie, she could decide Sansa is safe where she is. She's well hidden there, and Baelish is her uncle by marriage and guardian to her cousin. I still think she still might end up with Sansa in the Vale. Martin did, after all, give her a companion who knows Sansa. Of course, Baelish also knows Podrick, so it could get tricky.

Nobody else has figured it out yet, either, if they're being honest. I think Martin left it that way on purpose; so we would wonder. I think he's a red herring. He's there because of of Baelish's job offer. Storywise, I think he's there to distract us; make us think he's a threat to Sansa while the real threat goes unnoticed. But I could very easily be wrong. One thing I am convinced of is that he is not Howland Reed, or anyone else, in disguise.

Well you do have 24 chapters listed and there are 20 POVs still alive, so I'm guessing you can't list everyone. And some of the more minor ones won't get much in any event. I know that when I try to figure out how many chapters each POV gets, I end up with a total that is more than will fit into one volume (85 or so). I'm thinking he is going to have to consolidate stories pretty extensively, so POVs are in proximity and can tell each other's stories. He can kill some off, but the ones that need the most chapters are the main characters (the big 6), and they're not going anywhere. By the way, how many chapters total are you predicting? Just curious. Right now, I can't get below 92 or so.

The people who made the show didn't like the Starks much; it's clear they prefer the Lannisters and their attitudes towards life. So I guess those attitudes may have rubbed off on readers who came to the books from the show. Also, the Starks take a pretty good beating, especially in the second and third books, so there might be some enjoyment in that. I guess some people are just so cynical they can't stand the thought of the good guys maybe coming out on top.

Prologue: Martin has stated that Jeyne Westerling is in the prologue. This suggests something in the Westlands. Most speculation has centered on a rescue attempt for Edmure, either by the BwB or the Blackfish, or both. I have my doubts; I think the timing is too tight and the escort too large. My guess is it will be their arrival in Casterly Rock. We will see the Rock and get an update on events in the West. Arya 2: I expect a meeting with Jeyne Poole, but I think it comes a bit later. Her meeting with Jeyne will almost certainly lead to leaving Braavos, and I think she still has a couple of chapters left there. So I'm guessing around Arya 4. That also gives Jeyne time to travel there.

I certainly find myself concerned about her behavior, but don't think it qualifies as psychopathic, nor do I think she is past the point of no return, so to say. I don't care for the idea of an 11-year-old killing people, especially those who aren't any kind of threat. If she were real, I would be a lot more worried about her. As it is I think George has other plans for her that don't involve being a totally lost cause. But I don't expect it to be an easy ride, although I do think that he is paving the way for her departure from the Faceless Men and Braavos in the preview chapter. Arya is not a Faceless Man, and I don't think she is ever going to be one. If the FM, or Martin for that matter, were intent on making her an assassin they're going about it in a roundabout and dilatory way; she should be a lot further along in her training than she is. She knows little more about killing people than she did when she arrived in Braavos. What training she has gotten seems more geared to being an undercover agent than an assassin. And she wasn't all that OK with murdering the insurance man, which is the only person she's been ordered to kill. She asked a lot of questions, probably too many. If they haven't figured out she would be a poor candidate for an assassin, due to her inability to give up her identity and her still extant moral compass, however wobbly, I would be very surprised. Putting Arya in the same neighborhood as Baelish is simply ridiculous. He may be obsessed with Sansa, and may even care about her enough to keep her safe, but I seriously doubt if he really cares about her. If he would decide that he is better off without her, or if he perceives her as some kind of threat, she's toast. I also think he may ultimately arrange Sweetrobin's death, and blame Sansa for it, giving him a hold over her, similar to the Joffrey affair. Littlefinger is bad news, pure and simple. If Arya starts killing more people, especially less culpable ones, then I will start getting seriously worried. As for now, I am merely watchful and cautiously optimistic.

I think I tend to agree with this. While Arya likely has mental issues, psychopathy isn't one of them. She could be suffering post traumatic stress or something like that, and she is definitely becoming too comfortable with violence for my liking. It's a good thing she has a strong moral code; if not, I could see her being a pretty serious criminal. But she isn't, nor do I see her as hopeless, like Lord Varys appears to. Heck, he seems to want the Starks to be worse off than most of their enemies do. And as I've said before, I very much disapprove of her murder of Dareon, and Raff for that matter. They may deserve death, but it shouldn't be Arya doing it. She has no right to do so, and I've never said she did. My earlier post was pointing out that Dareon being a deserter wasn't the main reason she killed him, though it did provide a hook for her to justify it. I think if she breaks away from the Faceless Men and finds a safe environment, she can recover. She hasn't lost her identity or her moral compass, so she has something to build on. She just needs a worthwhile purpose, and a pack. The Faceless Men are attempting to provide that for now, but they are a really bad influence.

Actually, Arya did not save Sam from drowning. That was Xondo, off the Cinnamon Wind. I suppose you could give her credit for the bravos, but it's not clear Sam was in mortal danger. It's also not clear what would have happened to Hot Pie and Gendry either. Anyway, I think she took them more for their company than any perceived future danger. While I give her a pass on the deaths in Westeros, and I mostly blame the Faceless Men for the insurance guy, who may or may not have been cheating people, her killings of Dareon and Raff were purely murders of choice. And while I am not sorry they are dead, I am sorry that it's Arya that made them dead.

Arya didn't kill Dareon simply because he was a Night's Watch deserter. She killed him because of his abandonment and betrayal of Sam and the others, and by extension her brother, and because of his indifferent and hedonistic attitude towards it all. If he'd been more helpful and sympathetic to Sam, and kept a lower profile, I doubt Arya would have cared. I still disapprove of her actions, considering it her worst act, but I can't really feel that sorry for Dareon.

This is getting ridiculous. Arya's upbringing gave her a strong moral code and sense of right and wrong, combined with a hatred for injustice. Combine that with a hot temper, impulsiveness, and strong empathy for others and you have a vengeful vigilante. I am bothered by some of her more recent acts, but I in no way think she is, or is becoming psychopathic. Anti-social (i.e., criminal), maybe. But not psychopathic. The Bolton guard was killed out of necessity. She had already stolen the horses, as well as the dagger and the map. There was no hiding it; she had crossed the Rubicon. She had initially planned to bluff her way out. When she realized that wouldn't work, she killed him. He is a victim of poor planning as much as anything else. While she didn't do well in the village with Sandor, she felt no sense of belonging there either. In Braavos, she lives with Brusco and his family, selling shellfish, for months, and does just fine. However, she lets her anger at unjust behavior and betrayal get the best of her with Dareon. He did betray Sam, and by extension her brother, and was an arrogant and hedonistic prick about it. I consider it her worst act, but can't get too exercised over it. Later, in the preview chapter, she is working in a theater, again functioning quite nicely. Until someone from her past comes along. Witnessing the slaughter of animals for food and clothing hardly is going to make someone psychopathic or even callous toward life, especially if done humanely. Knowing Ned, that was likely the case. As for watching an execution, I too question the wisdom of bringing a 7-year-old along. However, it is worth noting that England and parts of America held public hangings until well into the 1800s. I have read that entire families would be in the crowds, including young children. May not be a good idea, but as long as it made clear that justice is being done (or is supposed to be), I'm unconvinced it is going to create psychopaths or the like. Essentially, Arya is more like a refugee from war or a child soldier than anything else we have to compare her to. In any event, I would expect a safe, caring environment would help a lot, as well as good mentors. Unfortunately, with the Faceless Men, she is getting neither. The don't care about her per se; they are interested in using her for their own ends, and manipulating her in that direction. What that is, I don't necessarily know, but I doubt it is becoming an assassin. She's not really cut out for it; she cares too much about other people, and I don't think her training is aimed in that direction either. If they are training her to be an assassin, they are doing so in a very roundabout and dilatory way. Her training is more the thing you would give a spy or other undercover agent.

The funny thing is, if you stated that Arya is a violent and dangerous criminal who kills people for no legitimate reason, and is therefore a threat to public safety, you might actually have a case. You could at least have an interesting argument on the subject. But they keep claiming she's insane or psychopathic, which she clearly is not.

I'm well aware of the quote. There is nothing about Gared saying anything, or that whatever was said is in any way important to the story. Even if Martin wanted to hold it back, he's had ample opportunity in the last 4+ books to tell us. I can't imagine what difference it would make now. We are dealing with a work of pure fiction. So I am reluctant to add material, or fill in gaps, for events we witness through a POV. Ergo, Gared said nothing.

Guys, Gared said NOTHING. We have four POVs present and no one has mentioned anything in 4+ books since then. Not only am I not going to blame Ned for lack of awareness of modern ideas, I certainly am not going to blame him for something he didn't even do, i.e., not listening to Gared. There was nothing to listen to.