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Sly Wren

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  1. Ah! Got it. But is there any reason that their reactions to the war weren't also a plot? Rhaegar went along with Tywin at Duskendale, where Tywin used the Darklyns' grievance to try to get Aerys killed. Tywin seems to have goaded Aerys into going to the Darklyns in the first place. And possibly even goaded the Darklyns into rebellion. Thus, Tywin uses others' grievances to start violence to get an enemy killed: he did a similar thing with Robb. So--any reason why Tywin and Rhaegar wouldn't use the Rebellion? Or even spark the Rebellion--as we see Tywin do with the Defiance and the Red Wedding? If so, Rhaegar and Tywin would be communicating all along. Yup--it's one of the reasons I suspect Tywin being behind the Kingswood Brotherhood's attack on Elia. Unless he wins. If he wins, he's the grand hero who ended the rebellion sparked by his rotten, mad father. And he's got superior numbers. Given how quickly Tywin gets to KL, seems like a whopping good chance he was ready to march or already marching before the Trident ended. Unless Tywin is already on Rhaegar's side--in which case, that summons was mummery on Rhaegar's part. Like leaving Jaime behind. Possible--but it would be a whole lot easier if some "accident" befell Aerys before Rhaegar got there--deposing a king is difficult. Rhaegar knows the Targ history of civil wars. And you can't be sure a king is deposed until he's decomposing. No way Rhaegar's not aware of all of this. Tywin's taking the city and Aerys' having an accident? That would help Rhaegar immensely. Yes--but is also leaves Aerys with a freaked-out guard. A really deadly swordsman, who's unstable and cracking. And Tywin clearly had no "pause"--Crakehall isn't surprised, according to Jaime. Jaime realizes his father assumed he'd turn on Aerys. Given Jaime's behavior when Rhaegar left, given that Rhaegar may have heard from Hightower how Jaime was doing--Rhaegar left a really bad protector with Daddy. On purpose. And without a superior KG to keep Jaime steady. I'm liking this a lot--would make sense of some of Pycelle's bootlicking. Hmmmm. . . . workable. Though given how much Tywin hates Aerys, seems like there's little reason to think Tywin's innately going to help. Are you thinking Pycelle is the puppet-master here? I'm struggling to see it--even though I kinda like the idea. Seems more like he's doing Tywin's bidding vs. the other way round. Are you thinking of something specific that might point to his manipulation of Tywin? Right--under Aerys' control. Rhaegar needs to depose Aerys. He needs some forces who are pro-Rhaegar and anti-Aerys. And, if possible, needs Aerys to have an "accident"--gives Rhaegar plausible deniability. Unless he and Tywin were sitting out the war on purpose in tandem. And unless Rhaegar really thought he could win--which he really seems to think.
  2. Oh! Sorry--misunderstood you. Okay--I meant that with Jaime there, Tywin and Rhaegar could be more sure that Jaime would turn on Aerys. I don't think they could count on him killing Aerys (though that would be a possibility--Crakehall seems completely unsurprised). But refusing to attack Tywin and instead turning on Aerys? Yes. A loyal KG might convince Aerys to flee. Stand and fight. Create more problems. Jaime would be less likely to do all those things. A when he notes Crakehall's rlack of surprise, even Jaime seems to realize that Tywin counted on Jaime's being his son more than Aerys' KG.
  3. I'm assuming Rhaegar was pretty sure he'd win--he had good reason to, given that he had more men. And that he intended to take out Aerys when he came back--a feat which would be easier if Tywin secured the city. I'm not sure when Rhaegar intended to come back--did he always intend to come back and fight a final battle, be the hero and thus have ground to take out Aerys? Did he only come back because Aerys threatened his family? Not sure. Hoping Martin will explain himself soon. But the ultimate goal is Rhaegar's prophecy driven stuff--and really seems like part of that is getting rid of Aerys. Tywin taking KL helps. Though it also lets Tywin hedge his bets--a factor I doubt was lost on Rhaegar. Why not? Wars help with deposing people. And both Tywin and Rhaegar want Aerys out. And they both sat out the war until an opportune moment. Seems very plausible they did so in tandem. I'm not sure I'm reading you right--do you think Rhaegar was hoping to revive Rhaegar's cooperation with Tywin? If so, Tywin's taking the city for Rhaegar really would have fit that bill, if Rhaegar could have closed at the Trident. Or are you thinking that the summons would revive Aerys's cooperation with Tywin?? Also--why are you would Pycelle do this? Tyrion has that odd question to Pycelle, asking how many Pycelle has betrayed--Ned, Arryn, and Rhaegar--are you thinking Pycelle betrayed Rhaegar, too? If so, why does Pycelle insist he always serves Lannister? But Tywin's taking the city for Rhaegar wouldn't be acting against without Rhaegar--it would be planned. And if Aerys had an "accident" during Tywin's occupation, all the better for Rhaegar.
  4. Agreed--but we do know Tywin's hatred is grand and mighty. And Aerys had been playing "goad the lion" for a while--Cersei, Jaime, marrying Rhaegar to a Martell (after Tywin rejected the Martells). The guy who obliterated the Reynes, who made his father's mistress walk through the streets, who had Masha Heddle killed and gibbetted for not saving Tyrion from Cat (what was that poor old woman supposed to do???)--Tywin knows how to hold a grudge--and how to exact revenge. My guess (and I fully admit I'm guessing)--Tywin wasn't supposed to come as Aerys' ally. But as Rhaegar's. So, maybe, not answering with a raven was a way to keep Aerys desperate. I'm thinking there's a chance that summons was Rhaegar's way to help set Aerys up to trust Tywin and let him into the city when he came. And Tywin wouldn't be there to protect Aerys--but to secure him for future deposing. Plus marching on the city later: it gives Tywin some plausibility, "Hey, I got there fast as I could--had to rally my men and that takes time, blah, blah." Maybe.
  5. Because Rhaegar needs his father off that throne. That's been his goal for a while. It would be very helpful if Tywin's men "secured" Aerys and any remaining supporters when they "secured" the city. And if Aerys was "unreasonable" and had an "accident" that led to his death? No one would weep. And it would be very, very helpful to Rhaegar. it's much easier not to have to call the Great Council. Or to depose his father. And a king is only fully deposed when he's decomposing. Rhaegar's studied the history of the Targs--no way he doesn't know this. Absolutely.
  6. No--but it is telling how she reacts to entitled ones tho think they have the right to take things over. And she isn't attracted to Tommen, either. Oh! No--that's not my premise. Apologies for giving that impression. No--my premise is that A: we do have some repetition (Others returning, Dragons returning). B. But the key point: we have a few markers about what happened in Robert's Rebellion--a few details about the key players, some "facts" about what happened (that may or not be true). Then, Martin puts his characters (in this case Stark Maids) with people who have some similar markers. For instance, Mance: Martin did NOT have to give Mance his red and black cloak, his Bael the Bard fanboyism, his desire for a Stark hostage (according to Osha and apparently confirmed when Mance gets Jon). GRRM makes Mance his own character--Jon's interactions with him are Jon's plot. BUT GRRM also adds in the Rhaegar/Bael imagery. He really, really did not have to do that. Really seems like it's a marker: and we should pay attention to how the Stark maid (Jon) interacts with Mance--with his mission, with his ideology, etc. Add in C: GRRM made it stunningly clear at Lysa's Moon Door that just because characters (and readers) think they know what happened does not mean they are right--all that together: that's why I'm asserting we should look at how Stark maids react to people with Rhaegar/Bael imagery. If Beric was just a fire zombie and Gendry was a random bastard--I'd be with you. But Beric and his knights have echoes of Rhaegar and his KG. And Gendry is Robert's bastard--the same Robert Lyanna had reservation about. Gendry is still Gendry. Beric is still Beric. And Arya is not Lyanna--but those markers/comparisons: GRRM did not have to include them--so why does he? Why bother? Really seems like they are markers--not code, but markers--and we should pay attention. A very fair point--though she's first mad at him for not being on the Wall. For leaving his post--do we have evidence Arthur left his post? And then we have Jon. . . . The significance is Stark Maids and roses--and a gift at a tourney. We only find out later that Lyanna also had a gift at a tourney--this time of blue roses (vs. Sansa, getting roses from a blue-flower covered rose-man). And only find out later that Loras' gift did not mean what Sansa thought it meant. . Absolutely. But we are not yet told why it matters or what the link is--why is the wreath a horror for Ned? A lot of readers assume it's all about love--but we specifically have another Stark maid get an unromantic rose--a rose she still thinks about. Not to mention that creepy moment with Marillion. And the Blue Bard. Martin brings up blue roses and flowers rarely--but it isn't just with Lyanna. He brings in blue and roses with Sansa and others, too. If we want to understand what's up, seems like we should pay attention. HA! They could have a menage a trois. Mance could play while Stannis fire-gazes for lyrics and Ghost howls the harmonies. And Stannis can give Jon and Mance burning hearts for Valentines. But the point is what I said above: GRRM give Mance Rhaegar/Bael imagery he did not need to give him. And he gives Stannis markers, too: Targ descendant; believes his "relatives" shouldn't rule; obsessed with prophecy; lives on Dragonstone; willing to fight for his throne--and let other die in that fight; not likely to frequent brothels (according to Ned). Stannis and Rhaegar have different reputations and temperaments. But Martin did not have to give Stannis all those markers. Yes. But the fact that she's a devoted follower of a Rhaegar figure--GRRM did not have to include that. So why did he? Dunno for sure. But it seems worth noting. Absolutely--he believes Mance's take on protecting all. Schools the Watch on how that's what the last really means. Though he rejects Mance's take on attacking the Watch. And Mance's take on protecting all fits with Jon's belief in protecting--in what his "father" ned has taught him, too. He schools them on the need to better follow their oath. He fully embraces that oath--Jon's a true believer. He's insisting that the Watch has gotten it wrong, not that the Watch is useless. . . And he refutes to leave for power or land. Only leaves to protect family . . . which raises the question of how Lyanna might feel after hearing what happened to Rickard and Brandon. And that Ned was constantly in danger from the war Rhaegar was intentionally sitting out of. . . Somewhat--though he is horrified by Val's take on Shireen. I'm guessing that conflict is on it's way. And Jon still believes in the oath of the Watch. His time with wildlings has driven him to re-think and redefine that oath. But he's all in on it. He refuses Stannis' offer for Winterfell--both due to the watch and due to his loyalty to the Starks--won't disinherit Sansa. And if Jon had stayed with Mance and not fought him--maybe. If Jon weren't horrified by Val's take on Shireen. If Jon was willing to abandon the watch as Mance did--maybe. Jon is influenced heavily--no doubt. Arya sympathizes with Beric's cause, too. Could absolutely see Lyanna's learning to sympathize. This is one of the few R+L scenarios I can buy: Rhaegar and Co. found Lyanna by chance; helped her and refused to return her until it fit their purpose. But seduced into a prophecy cult? We see Jon's reaction to that with Stannis. And with Val's idea of "purification." No--Jon sympathizes, heavily--but he's got differences. And when it comes to prophecy--they are southron fools. ETA: Plus, there's the tie to family: that's why Jon won't take Stannis' offer, cult or no cult. Lyanna's with people who are sitting out a war that's gotten her father and brother killed. If she's like Jon, seems like she might sympathize, but she will choose family, not a cult. But he's horrified by the prophecy cult--willing to help the North, but not with the cult. Agreed--and Sansa's short time at the tower seems. . . telling. Agreed. In which case, Lyanna's good judgment shines bright! And if that's all they were, I'd be right with you. But Martin also gives them Rhaegar/Bael markers. . . and gives Jon, Arya, and Sansa Lyanna markers. He did not have to do this. Seems like we should pay attention.
  7. Yes--that's been Tywin's dream since Cersei was little. Yes--and Tywin seems to have despised the Martells. He rejected them and instead offered Tyrion as husband for Elia. So they took his marriage plan and married Elia to Rhaegar. That's not something proud lion Tywin would take on the chin. It's one of the reasons why I think there's even a chance that Tywin knew where Rhaegar was--they both sat out the war on purpose. Then, right when needed most, Rhaegar is suddenly findable. . . .lots of ways this could have gone down. But given how Tywin takes the city right on cue, seems like there's a chance he and Rhaegar coordinated on Rhaegar's "finding" and return. Maybe.
  8. Sack or "take"--yes. Agreed. Though I think there's an excellent chance Elia would not have lived long. Her delicate state would have resulted in some kind of death (helped by Pycelle or something)--and Cersei would have been Queen. I've been thinking for a while there's a decent chance the Kingswood Brotherhood were supported/goaded by Tywin when they attack Elia--it's such an insane idea otherwise. And we learn via the Bloody Mummers that Tywin will use outlaws to do his dirty work. So, if Elia "accidentally" died when Tywin took the city, seems like he'd find a scapegoat--and marry Cersei to Rhaegar. Saying he was loyal and keeping the city from rebel retaliation, or something. But Aerys had stressed the KG--and Jaime was the one breaking. If Rhaegar actually want Aerys guarded well, he'd bring back "Hightower the Devoted," not leave "Jaime the Way-too-Young-and Totally-Freaked-Out." Or at least leave Darry: "You donned that cloak, you promised to obey." Rhaegar hears Darry say that--but leaves freaked out Jaime alone with Aerys anyway. I don't think Rhaegar wanted Aerys well-guarded--he left the kid who had to be reminded to obey to guard a king that kid hated. If Rhaegar didn't want Aerys well guarded, Jaime's the perfect choice--Jaime without any other KG backup. Especially if Rhaegar knew Tywin would take the city--then Jaime's a really, really perfect choice.
  9. If Rhaegar won, I assume Tywin would have been holding Aerys and the city for Rhaegar. Rhaegar told Jaime he would call a council--removing Aerys is something Tywin and Rhaegar have been trying to do at least since Dunskendale. And definitely since Harrenhal. So, someone needs to get Aerys secured ASAP. But no two ways about it: Rhaegar's life is easier if Aerys gets killed before Rhaegar calls that council--if a scared kid freaks out and kills him. No way either Rhaegar or Tywin could be sure Jaime would kill Aerys, but they could be pretty sure he'd turn Aerys--the king he hated and feared--over to Tywin instead of defying his father. One way or another: Rhaegar and Tywin both have the same goal: depose Aerys. And Tywin has that goal whether or not Rhaegar wins. So, he would rush and take the city either way, I think.
  10. Maybe--but Crakehall isn't surprised, according to Jaime. Which suggests he wasn't thinking Jaime would be dead. He--and likely Tywin--believed Jaime would pick Tywin when Tywin took the city. Thus setting up Jaime to either kill or capture Aerys. And, given that Rhaegar told Aerys to send to Tywin, I buy @Voice's theory that Rhaegar made the same assumption. Rhaegar saw how panicked Jaime was and left him there alone anyway. No one ever accused Rhaegar of being stupid, but he left young, inexperienced, freaked out Jaime alone with Aerys and his creepy pyromancers. Leaving one KG with teenaged Jaime wouldn't have made a key difference at the Trident. But it could have made a massive difference to how well Aerys was guarded if/when Tywin showed up. And Rhaegar wanted his father off that throne. He likely planned on Tywin's taking the city--and Jaime's deferring to Tywin. He set Jaime up. And yes, I do think Rhaegar and Tywin were in cahoots on this--but Tywin was also ready to play either side. He knew to hedge his bets.
  11. Tywin sat out the war for a reason--waiting to see whom to back in his desire to take down Aerys. He wanted Aerys out and his family restored to power in King's Landing. Pretty sure his plan was to take King's Landing after the Trident no matter what, so he had his men ready and marching by the time the Trident started. That way, his army was fresh and safe--and ready to take King's Landing at the right moment. He would have taken it for Rhaegar if Rhaegar won (Rhaegar, too, sat out the war--seems likely he and Tywin planned this together). But if Robert won, he'd take KL for Robert. Playing both sides means Tywin can come out on top no matter what. Either way, Aerys would have been dead: Tywin had wanted that for years.
  12. Sly Wren

    Poll: Is Jon Snow the son of a Dayne?

    Even further: Jon's a spy/plant. So, he's on a mission, not just a helpless hostage. He intends to "play" the wildlings--so, a bit mercenary on his part. At least in theory--in practice, it gets messier. Oh! No--if that's what Arthur did, hang him. Slowly. Only until half dead. Then decapitate him. Slowly. With rusty garden clippers. But GRRM has given us a few clear examples of how Stark maids end up as hostages/in custody: Jon with Ygritte: yes, she's his captor, but she ends up being his advocate right quick. Mance: gets Jon by accident via Ygritte. Holds him for info, but will kill him if necessary. Jon's not the primary mission. Arya with the brotherhood and Beric (knights): Again--they get her by accident/happenstance. Harwin cares about her, but still refuses to let her go. They protect her, feed her, keep her safe, and fully intend to bring her to her family. But only on their timetable and for a fee to help their cause: useful hostage. Like Mance, they have a primary mission--the Stark maid is secondary. Arya with Yoren (sworn brother): he rescues her and intends to bring her home. He is rough with her, but risks his life for her. Again, like Mance and the brotherhood: Arya isn't his first mission. Arya with the Hound (disgraced sworn brother): more mercenary, but he does take care of her. Sansa with Baelish: I really doubt Baelish's Arryn plot started with "I'll get Cat's look alike daughter"--but he adjusts to include Sansa. His primary plans would proceed regardless. Lots of options in that list that don't involve Stockholm Syndrome or abuse. And allow for Lyanna to be the seducer--as we see a few people seduce sworn brothers (Ygritte and Jon; Arianne and Arys). But we know Rhaegar had intentions to overthrow his father and fulfill that 3 headed dragon thingy. A primary mission. If, as with both Arya and Jon, Lyanna was found, saved from a mess, and then held as a useful hostage until taking her home was convenient for Rhaegar and his KG--that would echo what happens with Arya. And be a potentially more complicated relationship, if Arthur saved her then held her. Arya's feelings for her holder/helpers can get messy in her head. It's one of the few scenarios I can think of that would make Rhaegar less of a cad if RLJ ends up being right--if Rhaegar was the one who saved Lyanna from some mess. But we have Arya being held/helped by Yoren (sworn brother), brotherhood (knights), and Hound (disgraced sworn brother). Seems like there's a good chance Martin did that for a reason. ETA: and a decent chance Ned would think rather highly of them. Which would fit with Ned thinking about bastards and lusts when thinking of Jon. And would fit with his thinking Lyanna's wolf-blood led to her death. And would be the case if Jon had gotten Ygritte pregnant--but he's still a fine black brother. A true believer in defending the realms of men--insisting on defending all people as part of his oath. Schooling other brothers on their oaths to get them to be better. Pretty damn fine, despite risking fathering bastards. So, the question really might be how Ned assesses knightly fineness--sexual purity, or overall protection of others despite his faults. As Jon did with Ygritte--for his duty. Despite those failings, really think Ned would still think Jon a fine man, HA! That would make for an interesting twist. And agreed: but the Jon./Ygritte relationship seems to have a potential double echo: Sworn brother (Jon/Arthur) seduced by wild northern girl (Ygritte/Lyanna); and follower of a Rhaegar figure (Arthur/Ygritte) falling for a Stark maid (Jon/Lyanna). If so, Jon's echoing both his parents. And, according to what Ned tells Arya, seems like Ned potentially holds Lyanna responsible for some of that--he doesn't seem to see her as helpless. And yet he still loves her and thinks she's fabulous, despite her wolf-blooded-spurred-death. As for "powerless"--we see Arya's relationships with her captors/saviors/holders: it's complicated. Same with Jon's relationships with the wildings. Really, really depends on how Lyanna ends up with Rhaegar and his KG. To be insufferably OCD: he says the KG were examples, but calls Arthur the finest knight, not the finest KG. Insufferable OCD ended/ Unless, like Yoren, the brotherhood, Beric, and even the Hound, Arthur and Co. were also Lyanna's protectors. No--the man you described deserved slow motion, garden clipper pain--absolutely. The options GRRM gives for Stark Maid captors/holders/protectors are rather more layered. No--I think Jon was born of lust (according to Ned)--and that Arthur, like so many KG in the novels, fell. Yet still managed to be a fine knight, like some in the novels. GRRM takes a lot of time setting up the dilemmas of sworn brotherhood. Really spends time on it for Jon--if the "finest knight" ends up being glow-in-the-dark pure, I'll be very surprised. But if the finest knight ends up being more like Jon--fallen, but still valiant--I won't be surprised at all. As for Lyanna--again, the above would fit with what Ned says to Arya. We have a LOT of missing info. But it would fit. HA! If Lyanna gave Ned a to do list, the whole thing could be excellent comedy: "burn my diary! delete my browser history!" My guess (and it is a guess) is that is was simpler: "tell no one who he is and protect him!" And Ned complied. Really depends--we also have the story of Jon's mother at Starfall. If the Daynes were involved in hiding Lyanna--that would explain their respect for the man who killed their literal chosen son. And make sense of Ned's intense reaction to Ashara's name being mentioned. And make the secret of the Daynes dangerous. And Ned still fears Robert's "madness"--calls it "madness." And, if Ned did kill Jon's father--that's a potentially dangerous secret for Jon. Except the "old guilts:" The thought of Jon filled Ned with a sense of shame, and a sorrow too deep for words. If only he could see the boy again, sit and talk with him. Game, Eddard XV There are a lot of potential interps of this. But if Ned killed Jon's father, the above shame and sorrow would make a lot of sense as to why he doesn't want to write it in a letter. But really wishes he could talk to him. Ned would want to explain, "Luke, I killed your father" in person.
  13. Sly Wren

    Poll: Is Jon Snow the son of a Dayne?

    Why would Arthur be the seducer? Ned specifically tells Arya that Lyanna's wolf blood led to her death. And Ygritte is the seducer in her relationship with Jon--like father like son? As for the "take a hike"--Rhaegar's married. With children. Giving flowers to another woman/girl right in front of his wife while a huge chunk of the realm's nobles are watching. Arthur's none of the above. And Arthur, like Jon, is a sworn brother: GRRM has taken the time (a lot of time) to show how even really, really good sworn brothers can fall--and still be great men. As for Ned's assertion, he claims Arthur is the "finest knight"--nothing about "knighthood" requires celibacy. We don't yet know what the 3KG's mission was when they fought at that tower--it think there's a good chance that, like Jon, Arthur left his love and returned to his duty, no matter the cost. So, why Arthur is fighting Ned might have a big impact on why Ned still thinks he's the finest knight. And, for now, we do not know why Arthur is singled out when Hightower and Whent aren't. Why Ned's so sad over Arthur, not Hightower and Whent. If Ned and Howland killed Lyanna's beloved, Jon's father, without knowing--if Ned every day saw the boy he loved, the son of the man he killed without knowing--that would fit extremely well with his "old guilts"--and why he regrets Arthur and not the others. Jon did not have to--he had options. Not great, but extant. Jon wanted to--even as he kinda hates himself for it. As for the rest--if Lyanna were the seducer, it would fit with the Jon/Ygritte model very well. And do we have any evidence Ned innately thinks knighthood requires sexual purity? Unless Lyanna made him promise--fear's a powerful thing. Even irrational fear. Though I do think Ned should have told Cat, no matter who Jon's parents were. It hurt their marriage. But Ned does think his promises cost him.
  14. Sly Wren

    Poll: Is Jon Snow the son of a Dayne?

    And if that fear was beyond Ned's fears, makes sense she'd have to work for it.
  15. Sly Wren

    Poll: Is Jon Snow the son of a Dayne?

    1. We don't know that. We only know that after reconciling with Robert and after many years have passed, Ned now thinks this. We don't know that he thought this when Robert called murdered babies dragonspawn. We do know Ned left in a cold rage, irreconcilable with Robert until after Lyanna's death. 2. And we don't know what Lyanna made of Robert's take on murdered babies. We do know Ned's promise cost him--we don't know if he agreed with Lyanna's fears or just promised her to alleviate her fears--and then kept the promises, no matter what they cost him. No--everything points to current Ned thinking this (until his head came off). At the time, he was beyond horrified and enraged. Current Ned has overcome that rage and horror--something he did after Lyanna's death when he reconciled with Robert. Might even account for the fact that current Ned never seems to worry about Jon's safety. And we still don't know what Lyanna thought. Currently? Maybe. At the time? Fear and shock are powerful things. And Robert's willingness to condone baby murder, his desire to re-kill Rhaegar--that has nothing to do with "claims." It's jealousy, grief, and loss. And none of the above accounts for Lyanna's "fear"--nothing in the text requires her fears, or the promise Ned gave for those fears, to be "rational." They absolutely have reason to fear this. But at the moment of Jon's birth, they have reason to fear other options, too. How do you trust someone when they've just done something you never thought they'd do? Ned clearly never thought Robert capable of going even as far as he did. And was irreconcilable at the time he'd found Lyanna. Why should Ned innately believe Robert would now stop at just "condoning?" As for Lyanna: she's afraid. Nothing requires her fear to be rational. Nothing. If it wasn't rational, might even give some nuance to why Ned thinks that his promises have cost him.