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Paxter

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Everything posted by Paxter

  1. I'm hoping that (by now), most supermarkets won't let you stock up by making panic purchases! It's a very minor point in the scheme of things, but the major grocery stores should have been wising up to hoarders much earlier than they have.
  2. Makes sense - thanks. Italy looks like less of an outlier and more of a predictor based on that information.
  3. I'm interested in any reasons people are aware of for the dramatically different scenarios in Germany vs. Spain and Italy. Germany's number of confirmed cases is now increasing by over 1,000 daily, but they are reporting just 27 fatalities overall.
  4. Canada is a net food exporter, so I'm not as worried as others about the food supply. Fresh food is a different story, but you can't stockpile that anyway. I am more concerned about medical supplies and the health care system in general. My family members back home in Australia are struggling to get access to Ventolin, for example. I'm just hoping that enough capacity building is happening behind the scenes in Canadian health-care land.
  5. Hmmm...I'm probably not as sanguine as you Jeor. I think the Government's performance in this crisis has been OK, but they aren't going as far yet as some of the SARS-affected countries, or even other western countries like Canada. We have been in a full lockdown for a while now, despite having around the same number of confirmed cases as Australia. And Canada has a similar profile in terms of health care, banking and budget wiggle-room. The comparative numbers from around the end of next week onwards (after the incubation period) will be interesting.
  6. Yes, I think the Italian fatality rate stats would be way off given testing limitations. But the absolute number of deaths is getting high - they will overtake China in the next couple of days.
  7. Yes, somewhat ironically, the banking sector could be a source of strength in the early stages of this crisis. They are pretty well capitalised, so some of that capital can now be used to absorb credit losses from critical sectors (e.g. small businesses). The trouble for the banks will be if their (gigantic) mortgage portfolios are stressed by unemployment as the crisis wears on.
  8. Good move K. Some quick comments based on the ever-changing state of affairs: Australia should "go early" on things like aged care/hospital visits, businesses activating business continuity plans etc. to flatten the curve. We also need to go much further on financial support for businesses and vulnerable groups. Our debt to GDP ratio is low compared to our peers and we have a AAA rating - it's time to make use of that wriggle room. Upcoming decisions around business closures/local or regional lockdowns etc. will be critical from an economic standpoint. A services-based economy can only go so long in lockdown without causing widespread unemployment, which will have flow-on effects to the housing market. In the UK, BoJo seems to have made a decision not to sacrifice the economy, while Spain and Italy (and, sort-of, France) look likely to go the other way. The economic impact on Australia will be much greater than the Financial Crisis. We were basically shielded from that crisis by small exposures to the US housing market and a rising China. The Government will likely have to do some things it did during the Crisis (e.g. increasing the deposit guarantee to $1m; guaranteeing wholesale funding of banks; fiscal and monetary stimulus) and some things it did not (e.g. targeted bailouts of key industries).
  9. Hugs TWS. Sounds like a shitty situation. My first day of working from home is tomorrow, most of my colleagues assume this will go on for at least a couple of months. I’m at least looking forward to the sleep ins!
  10. Yes, no one can complain about too much cricket! Bangladesh v Australia series must be cursed - this will be the second series cancelled between the two sides in recent years. Unfortunately the current situation may also impede the Test Championship, which I was kind of intrigued by as a way to increase the importance of bilateral test matches.
  11. Yeah that series is gone now given the Ardern decision. This thread will sadly be very quiet from now on! Let’s hope we are back for the English summer, but I have a bad feeling about its prospects.
  12. Thoughts on what happens to the US border? At first I was thinking maybe Trump would close it, now I’m the opposite and thinking JT could close it.
  13. Let’s just say that if you’d parked your money in bonds rather than stocks from ‘08 onwards you’d be pretty unhappy. And that was the largest financial crisis since the Depression - no small event. It’s all about your investment horizon, I can certainly see why you’d be freaking out if you were planning on retiring soon. But of course, if that was the case, you should have already been highly weighted to fixed income already.
  14. A fun distraction amid the cricket cancellations going on ATM: theguardian.com/global/video/2020/feb/25/sachin-tendulkars-name-proves-tricky-for-trump-in-india-video We did see some behind-closed-doors action in Australia last night, with NZ again capitulating against Australia in an ODI. The Aussies really have their number at the moment...
  15. My work is entirely under remote arrangements for the next month. I must say I'm tempted by all the cheap air fares at the moment, but it is a bit of a risk if the travel advisories change for the US and I end up in quarantine on the Canadian border... ETA: Bemused by ppl worried about their super. Unless you are cashing out in the near future, you shouldn't be setting your investment allocation based on a short-term horizon. Silly stuff.
  16. I think Australia is moving too slow in cancelling mass gatherings. Get your shit together pollies! This is about slowing the spread and buying the health care system time. At least common sense prevailed re: the Grand Prix.
  17. Yeah 9/11 is the only clear comparison point to this in my lifetime. I’m going to say this is worse though, because I still had a sense then that “everything would be alright.” I don’t really feel like that now.
  18. For sure it’s going to get radical. TBH, I’m surprised organizations like the NRL and AFL are trying for a business-as-usual approach. I think I’m in a bit of a state of shock at the moment. The real prospect of mass fatalities and severe economic hardship is hitting home. It even makes things like the upcoming US election seem trite.
  19. Personally, I wouldn't characterise this stimulus as paid leave. It's more akin to a targeted unemployment benefit, which makes a lot of sense from a macroeconomic and public health perspective.
  20. So are we heading for our first recession since '91 ("the recession that Australia had to have")? Or is it now only a question of: how long and deep will this recession be? The big question mark for me is how hard the job market will be hit, and the flow-on effects to the housing market. The RBA has virtually no room to move, so presumably we will see the budget back in the red. From a narrow political perspective, at least this time the Coalition's economic crisis management will be tested. In recent history only the ALP has been in power during times of economic trouble (Hawke/Keating in the early 90s, then Rudd/Swann during the Crisis).
  21. It’s a pretty easy read once you get past the first 20-30 pages. I can see why people get stuck with the child-like, nursery rhyme writing style, but it grew on me.
  22. Yeah I shop at Costco so everything is in bulk. No need for any toilet paper buying.
  23. This thread probably doesn’t belong in Gen Chat, but I’d add into the mix GRRM’s history in the TV world and the way his chapters feel like “episodes”.
  24. I have felt that way ever since the end of the Chuck storyline.
  25. The highlight of the season so far was Nacho's dad confronting his son about the business buyout. "Nice to meet you!" +1 on the Mike scene being a bit much. Especially after all those whiskeys.
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