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Everything posted by Paxter

  1. Ah sorry, I was looking at NSW only. But even 300/day is good going compared to most other Western countries.
  2. Brings to mind Friedman's line: "We are all Keynesians now".
  3. Pretty good health data coming out of Australia compared to other jurisdictions. Who knows if the warmer weather is helping, but to be in a situation of only 100 new cases per day (as of yesterday) is cause for optimism. Canada is tracking over 1000+ a day at this point.
  4. There’s also the argument that a rapid ramp up in health care capacity will let us deal somewhat better with a spike - so a delayed spike is better than no change at at all.
  5. I was simply citing the current data as evidence for stabilization. I am not declaring a peak for Italy, though of course, it's possible the peak has been reached if the national lockdown works in the manner hoped. As a Calabrese by ancestry, I am well aware of deficiencies in public health services in the Mezzagiorno.
  6. There is some evidence of stabilization of new cases and fatalities/day across some of the nations with the most reported cases: Italy: Peak fatalities of 919 on March 27, currently at 727. Peak new cases of 6,557 on March 21, currently at 4,782. Spain: Peak fatalities of 913 on March 30, currently at 598. Peak new cases of 8,271 on March 26, currently at 6,213. Germany: Peak fatalities of 130 yesterday, today at 73 (which is the lowest daily number for a week or so). Peak new cases of 6,993 on March 27, currently at 3,946. France, US and the UK are of course some way off peaking on both these measures.
  7. Delaying the peak I guess is still a worthy goal if it allows the health care system to adapt. Perhaps the Nordics are more confident in their systems with more wealth and a smaller population.
  8. I'm guessing Quebec is at a unique disadvantage with inbound citizens/residents returning from both Europe and the US. The rest of the country is probably mainly dealing with US returnees only. Canada overall coping well though, with less fatalities across the entire country than Georgia or Louisiana on their own.
  9. Italy has recorded its lowest number of new cases in nearly two weeks. It is possible therefore that Italy is reaching its peak number of fatalities/day (at least for this first wave). ETA: Deleting references to Spanish data that was incorrect.
  10. I’m can stay here until June 2021. What is not entirely clear is if Canada would let me back in if I returned home for any reason. At this stage I’m staying put!
  11. I really feel for Aussies (and others) stuck on cruise ships around the world. Must be very stressful. And unfortunately it’s just not a priority to repatriate them when the world is facing a global crisis.
  12. Yeah this kind of benchmarking has helped me a lot. For example, I feel comfortable concluding that Germany is having more luck/better response in dealing with the virus than its European counterparts. The evidence is that, two weeks after its 10th death, Germany is experiencing a daily fatalities growth rate of around 25%. At the same stage, Italy and Spain had growth rates in the mid 30s. Without seeing that analysis, I was wondering whether Germany would have the same trajectory as its neighbours.
  13. Across the board was intended to mean “across countries which have confirmed fatalities over 100” (for the fatalaties data) or "cases over 5,000" for the new cases data. ETA: Worth looking at the FT website for a more fulsome look at the stats. ETA: Correction of who was in the FT sample.
  14. Amid the devastating absolute numbers, it's worth noting that the rates of growth in cases and deaths are starting to slow almost across the board. The Financial Times ran some good charts on this today. South Korea is clearly the star pupil so far: nearly five weeks since the 10th death and they have already managed to get their fatalities growth rate to well below 10%/day. Italy is now at around 10%, but peaked at around 40% (S Korea never went above 20%). The big question now is around further waves and the effects of relaxing lockdowns.
  15. Canada now reporting around 1,000 new cases daily. I wonder whether the timing really hurt us - had the US border closed a week or so before Spring Break (rather than during) then we could be at a much lower rate of new cases. Plus far fewer people would be caught on cruises, which must be pretty chaotic and stressful.
  16. !! Nice to have you back. The last Ashes was not the same without you here.
  17. I think this goes without saying. As an obvious example, we have nothing more than an estimate of how many people have died from HIV/AIDS (one of the great pandemics of recent decades). The margin of error is in the millions.
  18. Sure, but those measures were (perhaps, it's too early to judge) justified given their circumstances and possible based on the form of government. Does NZ need to do the same (with around 300 infections and 0 dead)? Countries need to sensibly learn appropriate lessons, not adopt Chinese responses wholesale.
  19. Ha yes, was possibly the wrong choice of words given that ends are not always justified by means. But the numbers (if you believe them) are pretty astounding. And the evidence that the economy is kicking back into gear must lend them some credibility.
  20. Iran is clearly the biggest offender in this regard.
  21. I'm not sure you can paint all jurisdictions with the same brush. Some are clearly learning appropriate lessons from China, others certainly less so.
  22. Yeah, the fatalities / day in Italy were reasonably static this week at around 600-700 / day. I'm guessing the latest jump in numbers is due to a spike in deaths in central/southern regions rather than the previous Lombardia/Veneto epicentre. (No data to back that up though). The other possibility (again, no data) is that some previous deaths in the epicentre are being re-classified as COVID deaths. There seemed to be some severe under-attribution of deaths in some northern towns. The longer this continues, the more we are seeing how heroic China's containment efforts were. To have less deaths overall than Italy is having in a week, in a country many times the size...
  23. How do you know they aren't a couple? It's pretty hard to socially distance from someone you are sharing a bed with. ETA: Larry stole my thunder!
  24. Is anyone prepared to call a peak yet in terms of fatalities/day in Italy? The national lockdown is about 2.5 weeks old now, so in theory we should see the number of new cases fall quite steeply.
  25. Just on the economic response, there seems to be some consensus emerging from the G20 that direct support to business is the way to go, alongside measures to support citizens directly. The chances of a V-shaped recovery are much slimmer if permanent economic damage occurs (e.g. business insolvencies, evictions from or foreclosures on commercial property, broken supply chains).
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