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Everything posted by Paxter

  1. Good move K. Some quick comments based on the ever-changing state of affairs: Australia should "go early" on things like aged care/hospital visits, businesses activating business continuity plans etc. to flatten the curve. We also need to go much further on financial support for businesses and vulnerable groups. Our debt to GDP ratio is low compared to our peers and we have a AAA rating - it's time to make use of that wriggle room. Upcoming decisions around business closures/local or regional lockdowns etc. will be critical from an economic standpoint. A services-based economy can only go so long in lockdown without causing widespread unemployment, which will have flow-on effects to the housing market. In the UK, BoJo seems to have made a decision not to sacrifice the economy, while Spain and Italy (and, sort-of, France) look likely to go the other way. The economic impact on Australia will be much greater than the Financial Crisis. We were basically shielded from that crisis by small exposures to the US housing market and a rising China. The Government will likely have to do some things it did during the Crisis (e.g. increasing the deposit guarantee to $1m; guaranteeing wholesale funding of banks; fiscal and monetary stimulus) and some things it did not (e.g. targeted bailouts of key industries).
  2. Hugs TWS. Sounds like a shitty situation. My first day of working from home is tomorrow, most of my colleagues assume this will go on for at least a couple of months. I’m at least looking forward to the sleep ins!
  3. Yes, no one can complain about too much cricket! Bangladesh v Australia series must be cursed - this will be the second series cancelled between the two sides in recent years. Unfortunately the current situation may also impede the Test Championship, which I was kind of intrigued by as a way to increase the importance of bilateral test matches.
  4. Yeah that series is gone now given the Ardern decision. This thread will sadly be very quiet from now on! Let’s hope we are back for the English summer, but I have a bad feeling about its prospects.
  5. Thoughts on what happens to the US border? At first I was thinking maybe Trump would close it, now I’m the opposite and thinking JT could close it.
  6. Let’s just say that if you’d parked your money in bonds rather than stocks from ‘08 onwards you’d be pretty unhappy. And that was the largest financial crisis since the Depression - no small event. It’s all about your investment horizon, I can certainly see why you’d be freaking out if you were planning on retiring soon. But of course, if that was the case, you should have already been highly weighted to fixed income already.
  7. A fun distraction amid the cricket cancellations going on ATM: theguardian.com/global/video/2020/feb/25/sachin-tendulkars-name-proves-tricky-for-trump-in-india-video We did see some behind-closed-doors action in Australia last night, with NZ again capitulating against Australia in an ODI. The Aussies really have their number at the moment...
  8. My work is entirely under remote arrangements for the next month. I must say I'm tempted by all the cheap air fares at the moment, but it is a bit of a risk if the travel advisories change for the US and I end up in quarantine on the Canadian border... ETA: Bemused by ppl worried about their super. Unless you are cashing out in the near future, you shouldn't be setting your investment allocation based on a short-term horizon. Silly stuff.
  9. I think Australia is moving too slow in cancelling mass gatherings. Get your shit together pollies! This is about slowing the spread and buying the health care system time. At least common sense prevailed re: the Grand Prix.
  10. Yeah 9/11 is the only clear comparison point to this in my lifetime. I’m going to say this is worse though, because I still had a sense then that “everything would be alright.” I don’t really feel like that now.
  11. For sure it’s going to get radical. TBH, I’m surprised organizations like the NRL and AFL are trying for a business-as-usual approach. I think I’m in a bit of a state of shock at the moment. The real prospect of mass fatalities and severe economic hardship is hitting home. It even makes things like the upcoming US election seem trite.
  12. Personally, I wouldn't characterise this stimulus as paid leave. It's more akin to a targeted unemployment benefit, which makes a lot of sense from a macroeconomic and public health perspective.
  13. So are we heading for our first recession since '91 ("the recession that Australia had to have")? Or is it now only a question of: how long and deep will this recession be? The big question mark for me is how hard the job market will be hit, and the flow-on effects to the housing market. The RBA has virtually no room to move, so presumably we will see the budget back in the red. From a narrow political perspective, at least this time the Coalition's economic crisis management will be tested. In recent history only the ALP has been in power during times of economic trouble (Hawke/Keating in the early 90s, then Rudd/Swann during the Crisis).
  14. It’s a pretty easy read once you get past the first 20-30 pages. I can see why people get stuck with the child-like, nursery rhyme writing style, but it grew on me.
  15. Yeah I shop at Costco so everything is in bulk. No need for any toilet paper buying.
  16. This thread probably doesn’t belong in Gen Chat, but I’d add into the mix GRRM’s history in the TV world and the way his chapters feel like “episodes”.
  17. I have felt that way ever since the end of the Chuck storyline.
  18. The highlight of the season so far was Nacho's dad confronting his son about the business buyout. "Nice to meet you!" +1 on the Mike scene being a bit much. Especially after all those whiskeys.
  19. NZ's bowlers deserve a lot of credit for that win. They unsettled India's batsmen (especially Shaw, Kohli and Rahane) with short stuff and had most of them playing from the crease. Then all they had to do was pitch the ball up and let the swing and seam take care of the rest. A surprising result in the SA/Aus ODI series with the hosts demolishing Australia in the first two matches. Most of SA's top six are newbies! I wonder if Finch will come under some pressure for the captaincy. Australia had a decent World Cup but has lost 4 of 5 matches since then and should be looking towards a long-term rebuild of the 50-over side.
  20. Hmmm it’s a tricky topic and probably not for this thread. I wouldn’t put the UK and the US in the same bucket - the UK could probably use some government spending after years of austerity and Brexit. The US is juiced on spending I agree, but has a higher interest rate than say, Australia, so has more wriggle room in a crisis. And re: Japan, if unemployment was a great indicator of economic health, then Japan would be an exemplar! They have some problems with labour market participation, but overall unemployment is low and the labour market is tight. Shinzo has had some qualified success in re-igniting the economy, though the recent sales tax was a disaster.
  21. Yeah, I share your concern re: Zombification. Our economy is so dependent on the dig/drill/export model that we could easily end up in an ultra-low interest rate funk alongside our northern peers. The Reserve is on its way to becoming as impotent as the ECB or BOJ, with its mandate of inflation targeting rendered irrelevant. But I disagree with you on being juiced by a deficit. If anything, I think both parties have got it wrong and could have been borrowing at low rates and investing for the future more than they have (e.g. large-scale infrastructure, education, health).
  22. And there goes the RBA with another rate decrease. Expected but sheesh, this is getting rough....could we get to zero like our fellow OECD cousins?
  23. I'm not as happy with this aspect of S4. Whiterose and Tyrell were pivotal characters with a lot of build-up and development, but both had weak endings.
  24. Late to the party on this one. It thoroughly deserved the technical noms it received at the Oscars. Overall though...it missed the mark for mine. It just didn't have that exquisite tension I associate with a QT film.
  25. Perhaps. Of the 10 series played since the start of the Test Championship last year, six have been won by the home side, with two draws and two away wins. Smallish sample size I'll admit, but there were some good away performances in that mix (Australia's Ashes defence and England's mauling of SA).
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