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Everything posted by Paxter

  1. Also, I have to agree with Kim Hughes that CA erred by retaining Paine as captain knowing that this powder keg could explode at any time. Regardless of his exoneration, this news was always going to be scandalous when it came out, which had the potential to jeopardize any tour. It should have been dealt with transparently at the time.
  2. Warne stood in during ODIs, but did he ever captain a test match? Watson definitely did but he was an all rounder, though some might put Cummins in that category. Really you have to go back to Richie for a genuine bowling all rounder.
  3. Sensible policy from Austria if a couple of weeks late. I thought Italy would be the first to mandate but Austria got there first!
  4. That’s elite honesty for you. Be part of a workplace sexting scandal and then sweep it under the carpet for four years.
  5. Tim Paine is done over some historical sexts. Just another day in cricket. Will be interesting to see if Cummins gets the nod as captain. He seemed to be the next in line.
  6. Just wanted to call out a few unfancied countries for quietly kicking some ass with the vaccine rollout. We all love hating on Bolsonaro but Brazil is up to 77% of their total population with at least one dose. That is significantly better than Germany. They are using mostly Western jabs (Pfizer and AZ) supplemented by CoronaVac. Chile, Argentina and Uruguay are all beating Brazil, with Chile closing in on nearly 90% of the population vacced. Morocco is bossing Africa and has more people with at least one jab as a % of its population than Greece (67%). Sri Lanka is easily leading its peers in South Asia at 75% with at least one dose. And I previously mentioned Malaysia who are leading the pack of the larger SE Asian nations. ETA: I want to end on a negative note. Bangladesh is down at 32% with at least one dose and is suffering a huge shortage of doses. There is some vacc hesitancy but that is not the full story. This is happening all over the globe unfortunately.
  7. Central Europe seven-day rolling averages for daily deaths per 100k people (as at today - source FT.com): Poland: 0.52 Czech: 0.64 Slovakia: 0.84 Austria: 0.43 Slovenia: 0.78 Central Europe seven-day rolling averages for deaths per 100k people (from the previous pre-vacc peak - source FT.com): Poland: 1.59 (April 14) Czech: 2.06 (March 12) Slovakia: 1.88 (March 2) Austria: 1.45 (Dec 21) Slovenia: 2.53 (Dec 7) Plenty of time for things to get worse of course (at least a two week lag), so we can check the data again over the coming weeks / months. But right now the stats suggest that the vaccine is reducing harm. Bear in mind that the case numbers are much worse now than the pre-vacc peak for all of those countries except Poland.
  8. I think there is some middle ground though. You don’t have to have a total shutdown, but you can keep office workers at home, reduce capacity limits for high risk venues, limit certain activities to vaccinated people (for an extreme example, see Italy’s green pass) etc. These are the kind of interventions that places like the US, Alberta, Northern and Central Europe foolishly abandoned this summer.
  9. Can you provide the names of the places you refer to above (either regions or countries)? I’d like to look at the post-vaccine data.
  10. I think that view is a little extreme. Take Israel as an example, which experienced a severe post-vaccine surge in cases from August to October that eclipsed all previous outbreaks. Vaccines helped significantly from a harm-reduction perspective and kept fatalities to a level that was actually lower than the Jan-March wave. The health care system also came under pressure, but vaccines allowed Bennett to get away with fewer restrictions.
  11. Looking at the cases/deaths data so far, Austria’s current wave looks quite similar to Israel’s post-vaccine wave. Higher case loads than previous peaks, but lower deaths due to vaccination (though not a low fatality rate by any means). The risk for Austria is that with a seasonal effect and an older population, this could deteriorate further. I think further non-vaccine interventions will be needed.
  12. Haha there is also a test series coming up but I believe the majority of India’s first XI (Bumrah, Kohli etc) will not be playing, at least for the first test. What a fucked schedule.
  13. @Deadlines? What Deadlines?: No, there was no relaxation of restrictions during the Delta outbreak in Japan that I’m aware of. Restrictions started lifting in late September after the peak. Apart from failing to deal with the Delta outbreak, the previous PM was also being punished for proceeding with the Olympics. It should also be noted that Japan did just endorse the ruling party in recent elections. Suga stepped down but his party is still enjoying a long time in power.
  14. Not to excuse Yorkshire at all, but I’m sure there are similar stories of discrimination, bullying and harassment in professional leagues across the UK, Australia, India, South Africa etc. You only need to look at the abuse Shami has copped from “fans” in the last couple of weeks. Then you have the Ollie Robinson tweets, the De Kock incident and the list goes on. Cricket has a systemic problem with racism and it’s time to deal with it.
  15. The third doses have probably muddied the data, but according to the official government website Canada should pass the 90% first dose mark some time this week. And it’s still rising by about 0.09% per day. On Japan, they simply got hit with Delta before the vaccine rollout had really kicked into gear. The same thing happened to Victoria and New South Wales, both of which recently exited extended lockdowns. The outgoing Japanese PM (Suga) paid the price for the Covid situation and had the lowest approval ratings in Japanese history before stepping down.
  16. That T20 win for Australia seems to have moved the Ashes XI conversation into unforeseen territory. There’s a late push now to get Marsh into the team ahead of Green, with Harris opening and either Usman or Head at 5. Wade is also back in the frame for the number 5 spot, although I’d still expect to see either Khawaja or Head selected. Unfortunately it’s highly unlikely we’ll see Pucovski in this Ashes due to his ongoing concussion issues.
  17. I think the State-specific fluctuations over the course of the pandemic are probably masking some of those really terrible weeks for the US (e.g. Florida's worst weeks have probably been evened out by better performances in the NE corner). Smaller, more concentrated countries probably lack that kind of aggregation effect.
  18. Belgium looks to be the next lockdown cab off the rank, with a high-level meeting on Wednesday to prepare for restrictions likely commencing this weekend. The Austria "lockdown" for unvaccinated people begins today.
  19. They did just win the Test Championship so let's not feel too sorry for them! Personally I think that's a much better feather in their caps. But they do have a habit of coming second-best in these pyjama party tournaments.
  20. Personally I like The Economist's excess deaths tracker. Unfortunately excess deaths data is hard to come by outside of the Americas and Europe, so the dataset is not complete. Notable omissions amongst highly populated countries are India, Pakistan and Indonesia (though there's a figure for Jakarta). China too, but they (probably) don't have much of an excess death count. But there are some cools pieces of information in there. Statistically, Bulgaria, Russia and Peru have the highest excess deaths per capita and are therefore the worst pandemic performers globally. NZ is the best performer with many deaths avoided since 2020 due to reduced spread of contagious illnesses etc. Malaysia also has a negative excess deaths count, which is pretty amazing for a country parked next to two not-so-good performers (Indonesia and the Philippines). The FT also has charts tracking excess deaths if interested in seeing the time series. That is interesting as you can clearly see the key pain points for different countries: e.g. Italy suffered a lot of its excess deaths in a large spike at the start of the pandemic, while Poland had two large spikes either side of January 2021. ETA: Oh and Ireland has been a decent performer according to The Economist. Fewer excess deaths than Canada and Finland, a few more than Denmark.
  21. Haha probably a 9. Who knows, Australia might even be able to defend its title at home next year! We have another one of these to “look forward” to.
  22. The excess mortality studies provide some clue. Take Egypt as an example of a relatively unvaccinated country. Officially the death count is 16k, but the excess mortality data points to a true death toll of 205k. That is a massive difference and a massive death toll.
  23. The USA did not hold off on the boosters at all!!!! Threw itself into it with scant regard for the international situation IMO. ETA: Whoops sorry you did say “most countries”. I’m an angry person today obviously.
  24. Not just Africa and Latin America either. Actually Latin America has done a decent job of vaccinating their people, with countries like Chile and Uruguay leading the way. But broad swathes of the Middle East, Central Asia and parts of SE Asia/Oceania (e.g. PNG) are more or less unvaccinated.
  25. The Austrian lockdown seems silly to me. Fine in theory but lacking any practical effect. I think the Dutch/Alberta partial lockdowns will prove to be more effective.
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