Paxter

Absolutely love Fevre Dream. Highly underrated.

Well, Lehrmann’s defamation case backfired. The judge has concluded that, on the balance of probabilities, he raped Higgins. A fair amount of Lehrmann’s evidence was not believed by the judge and was derided. This means that Ten and co have a defence to defamation.

Costs order will be interesting (deferred for now). Wilkinson and 10 will be out of pocket but not as much as Lehrmann.

9 hours ago, AncalagonTheBlack said:

What is it with these knife attacks? 

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/apr/14/joel-cauchi-named-as-bondi-westfield-attacker-who-stabbed-shoppers

Stabbings not overly surprising in a country with very limited access to firearms. But very, very sad for the innocent lives lost.

Another pretty hot inflation print for the US. Somewhat deceptive as the main driver was shelter - other areas are still looking promising for the soft landing believers. 

But the double-edged sword of a continued strong economy is that inflation is likely to persist for a while yet. We have seen a pretty sharp turnaround in commodity prices in Q1, which is going to feed through the supply chain in the next few months and probably see more sustained price rises. The headline CPI number is going to be a headache. That likely means "higher for longer" and greater chances that we eventually see falling economic growth and/or a financial event (e.g., commercial real estate, more regional banks falling). 

On 3/17/2024 at 6:47 PM, Jeor said:

Bump!

The big rally is starting to lose a bit of steam - time will tell whether this is a blip or start of a larger move downwards. Either way it seems like interest rates aren't going to be coming down quite as fast as everyone thinks (inflation being stickier), and if they do, it's not going to be for a good reason.

I've started to go a bit more passive in my investing (more ETFs and not as many individual picks of stocks) partly because of my available time, with work and family life taking a large chunk out of what would have been my research time. It's actually kind of relaxing just watching ETFs gently float up and down - the broad-based ones rarely move more than 1% in a day. Not as much excitement but statistically it's a good bet.

I'm a fan of ETFs for long-term investment. Gives you the diversification benefits at low cost. The thematic ones are silly though. Just buy the market. 

On the rally - yup, we are about to find out how much it was based on pending rate cuts. The oil price has jumped quite a bit since the start of this year, which doesn't make it easy for central banks to cut rates. In theory, they shouldn't be too worried about highly volatile energy costs (partially driven by OPEC production cuts). But in practice the optics of being the Fed Chair to cut rates just when headline inflation was poised to jump higher are not good. 

Drive-by on the Sam Kerr thing. I think it’s pathetic. What a waste of police, prosecutorial, and court resources.

Frustrating loss for NZ but an undeniably exciting match.

Feel sorry for Jonny as he was in such amazing form before that injury. 

The tour is definitely ending in a whimper for England. I think they played better than 4-1. 

From a G&M article:

Quote

Canada's per capita GDP, after adjusting for inflation, is now below where it was in the fourth quarter of 2014, nine years ago.

And I have to say, it feels like it. Canada's economy (and fairly large financial services industry) was a big draw for me when I moved here in 2019. It's not really a positive anymore. 

9 hours ago, ljkeane said:

Wow, I've only seen the highlights of the first day's play so far but the Black Caps letting Australia get to 383 after winning the toss and putting them in is a bit of a disaster.

And the Williamson run out summed it all up. Some nice individual performances from NZ in this match but the margin is likely to be quite a large one in the final analysis.

Nice to see the West Aussie do well in the first innings.

Oh dear Black Caps. Maybe this is why Australia don’t bother touring!

NZ’s test record against Aus since I started watching cricket

W: 1

D: 5

L: 16

God defend New Zealand…

ETA: That was a fkn satisfying win though ;).

10 hours ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

I was surprised that Australia hadnt played (or was it visited) NZ since 2016. The ICC has strange schedules for sure.

Visited.

But to be honest, that one completely bypassed me too. I guess the clashing of the Australian and NZ summers would be the main driver, but an eight-year gap is still far too long between NZ tours. 

Nice to see Henry perform well today. I am a big fan of his in white clothing, despite a relatively modest test career. 

1 hour ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Just to be clear, when you say not all of us agree odes that mean some in the queer community think the Police are doing just fine in their relationships and protection of the queer community?

I'm not sure I can agree with the notion that these murders aren't on the police. Any time a cop, on or off duty, murders a person because of who they are that is not just a single bad apple, that is the tip of a systemic iceberg. Are attitudes that can be a direct danger to members of the public being actively identified in members of the force, and dealt with?

Huh? This is a DV case. Not a hate crime. The perp is gay and an ex-BF or love interest of one of the slain couple. The perp marched in MG himself!

And yeah - I think the cops are doing OK in NSW. They aren't perfect. But they're OK in my opinion. [At least based on my experiences, living in Syd 2012-2019]. 

21 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Telling the cops they are not welcome at Mardi Gras is a clear message many in the queer community don't feel the police are doing what's required for this community. 

Yeah I get that. But not all of us in the queer community agree! And I must say it annoys me that the MG Board get to essentially speak on our behalf. They have done this a lot in the past by selectively including/excluding groups and I am over it!

2 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Maybe. It somewhat depends on whether the day to day evidence points to the police actually being LGBTQ+ allies or if they are guilty of tokenism, like taking part in public events and not much else.

There are many shitty things about the NSW Police (and other police forces across the country). Historic (and contemporary) failures to prosecute anti-LGBTQ+ hate crimes. Unnecessarily strong-armed approach to policing gay events and night clubs (I rarely see cops targeting the gay scene in Toronto, but they are everywhere on Oxford St). Inability to foster a consistently safe and equitable work environment for LGBTQ+ identifying cops.

But overall, I think things are getting better. And I would rather have the cops in the tent, than out. 

And I really don't think the deaths of these two guys is on NSW Police. 

Another creditable performance by England on this tour but an even better one from the hosts. Awesome performances from some of India’s new guns - just too good.

Random minor thing: I think it's absolutely ridiculous that Mardi Gras is asking NSW Police not to march in the upcoming pride parade. 

Sure, Police could always be doing more to improve relations with the LGBT+ community. And there will no doubt be some changes stemming from the current investigation into the deaths of the Sydney couple. But I don't see how excluding Police from MG is going to help matters and in fact could worsen them. 

I really liked the latest instalment of True Detective. Felt like more of a true successor to S1 than the other seasons. Good pace, thematically interesting, and some strong performances in there. 

IMDB disagrees with me though. Looks like easily the worst user ratings of any season of the show (even S2!)

I am probably more willing to credit India than criticize Bazball. Apart from the last innings of the third test, England's batting has largely hung in there and been creditable for an India tour. The bowling has been steady but lacking penetration at times. 

India have played to their strengths by accumulating big first innings scores on good batting wickets, then letting their superior pace and spin bowling chip away at England. And they have done so despite missing a lot of stars in the first few tests (and will be without Bumrah and Rahul in the fourth test). Winning two consecutive tosses also helps.

I am still struggling to come to terms with the level of dysfunction in our provincial politics 5 years in. 

The saying "worst-case Ontario" (which I only just heard recently) comes to mind. 

10 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I know, but it's one of those jokes that initially makes you laugh, but then makes you feel sad about the underlying truth of it.

We may meet some day, since my son has his own fantasy of moving to Queenstown to raise his family and if that nice fantasy ever becomes a reality the pressure will be on to follow so we can see the grandchild(ren) whenever we want. My son got married in Queenstown (in August!, outside!!!) and it's always been his and his wife's favourite domestic holiday destination, summer and winter.

Yeah I love Queenstown too. Great memories of family trips there and one with my partner too. 

@karaddin: South Island all the way! Or Wellington. 

Haha not sure you picked up the tone of my post.

Was just joking A-T...

I love NZ for the record. Dream is to retire in Wanaka. 

18 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Like I said, inflation is self correcting in a sound economy with a trustworthy govt that is implementing sensible policies, especially those that help to stimulate supply.

What kind of fantasy land do you live in? 

Oh. New Zealand. 

The short-term interest rate is a blunt tool. But it’s the only one we’ve got.

Barnaby in the news again. I wish these guys would fuck off. At least ScoMo got the memo.

Nice lines in an RBA speech today summarizing why I think we're in for "higher for longer" on interest rates and inflation:

Quote

But services price inflation remains high and broadly based. This strength has been because of continued pressure from the level of demand exceeding supply alongside strong growth in domestic costs. Firms in our liaison program continue to say that they face pressure from higher labour and non-labour costs like professional services, logistics and insurance. We are forecasting that services inflation will decline from here, but only gradually as demand moves into better balance with supply and domestic cost pressures moderate. This decline in services price inflation is necessary for the inflation target to be achieved over time.