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Everything posted by Paxter

  1. Reading your last update @Fragile Bird, I'd probably have preferred to see the provinces (esp. the large ones) wait a little longer before raising people's hopes and relaxing some restrictions. Ford's tone has become noticeably optimistic in recent days. This does feel like the peak of the (likely first) wave (Canada went past 200 deaths / day for the first time this week)...but I do worry that QC and ON are getting a little twitchy on the trigger. Let's actually see the predicted decrease (not just stabilization) in the data before we act. I wonder whether the large recovery numbers Canada is now reporting might be making the provinces feel more comfortable, because it means that the number of active cases is now almost flat-lining.
  2. I’m not convinced that deaths in aged care facilities are getting the proportionate government and public attention they deserve given the scale of these tragedies across the world. Around 80% of the deaths in Canada are in these centres.
  3. I think it's too early to judge their performance. We have seen only one country (China) successfully navigate from triple-digit fatalities / day to a low number. Most other large countries are struggling to get off their peaks quickly. Germany, for example, has had a 7-day rolling average of around 200 fatalities / day for the last 20 days, with some positive movement recently but not a huge amount. Italy's is now a bit below 500 / day after being closer to 1,000 a month ago (though they reported under 300 today). I'm not a fan of allegations that Spain and Italy have "let" things get to this stage. It feeds into some intellectually lazy stereotypes about Southern Europe. I also believe that, when all is said and done, countries like the UK and Belgium will have had as bad (or worse) experiences in this pandemic than their southern neighbours, particularly when you control for factors like median age.
  4. That's possible...though it doesn't quite jive with the fact that Venice and Florence have not been among the particularly hard-hit cities. I guess it's plausible that someone working in Florence goes to Bergamo to visit family and passes the virus on - who knows. Veneto (the region of which Venice is the capital), has actually had a pretty "good" pandemic, with 30 fatalities / 100,000 people. There is some speculation that health authorities may have contributed to this by encouraging people with mild symptoms to stay home and not present at hospitals. Lombardia, Piemonte and Emilia-Romagna have a far worse record (e.g. 137 fatalities / 100,000 people in Lombardia). Tuscany has also fared reasonably well. And of course, many southern regions have had (according to the data) only small outbreaks so far. Hope things are good where you are AP!
  5. I must admit to having no idea how to pronounce it. Phonetically I'm guessing it's something like: "This-drug-sucked-at-treating-Ebola-and-won't-work-this-time-either".
  6. Sweden doesn't collect recoveries on a national level as far as I'm aware.
  7. Triple post. But a new peak daily fatalities reached yesterday (188)...we aren't out of the woods yet I guess.
  8. I think these were very different types of outbreaks. Germany had a low-ish concentration of cases throughout the country, whereas Italy and Spain had some clear "hot spots" (Lombardia, Madrid) where the virus is even now very difficult to contain. Despite speculation from some boarders in previous threads that the Italian South was going to get hit hard, the highest risk zones are still all in the North (Lombardia, Trento, Liguria and Piemonte). Granted, there is time yet for the Mezzogiorno to be decimated...particularly as restrictions are relaxed and the usual South-North travel route is restored. I don't know much about the Austria example - certainly they have fared a lot better than comparable countries like Belgium or the Netherlands. Perhaps the lowland countries suffered from their centrality, while Austria's mountain holdfasts functioned in an almost Arryn/Eyrie-like manner :P. Luz might be able to enlighten us. ETA: Germany's de-centralized health care model and resultant greater testing ability have also been cited as key factors in some reports. But I still think the concentration of risk in particular (older) Italian towns and cities was the main determinant.
  9. Double post...but in some actual cricket news: Khawaja has lost his Australian central contract. I'm not going to write him off just yet, but there is a chance at the age of 33 (34 by the time the cricket season rolls around), he has played his last test match. I know we have seen our share of falls from grace over the years, but this is a pretty major one. A year ago he was just about Australia's most important player, particularly with Warner and Smith out of the side.
  10. Just saw that yesterday was the first day of > 1,000 recoveries. Go Canada! I'm getting more hopeful that by the end of May we will have followed the likes of Germany and Austria, with a much lower number of active cases. We are currently at 28,000 actives, which has grown only slowly in the last week.
  11. Unfortunately there’s just something a bit off about that generation of WI players: Gayle, Sarwan, Samuels...they were all too self-centred and poor successors to the greatness that preceded them. I’m more impressed by the current lot, though they are lot less talented. Personally I agree re: the McGrath incident. But many die-hard Aussie fans and ex-players tell a different story!
  12. Ontario is having a good week. We were up at consistently over 500 new cases/day in the last couple of weeks. This week has been 400s and even 300s. Overall, Canada has been remarkably consistent (if a little stubbornly so!) Every day seems to bring in ~1,500 new cases, with little change since the middle of April. Let's hope that May is the month where we see recoveries > new cases for the first time.
  13. I'm actually pleased that markets aren't reacting to a non-randomised trial...let's see what the NIAID trial says. The leaked WHO trial was randomised and showed no statistically significant benefit. But I understand that one suffered from low enrollment.
  14. Sarwan’s certainly one of the more loathed WI players from an Aussie perspective after the infamous McGrath altercation. I wonder whether years of not quite delivering on his clear talent soured him. Gayle I certainly have mixed feelings on. I loved watching him play...but he can be a bit of a numpty.
  15. I dunno about Quebec’s decision to start relaxing restrictions on May 4. Feels too early for a province that is seeing no noticeable decrease in new cases and easily the worst outbreak across the country.
  16. Yeah I think the Canadian shutdown has been more effective than the modelling originally showed (certainly in terms of fatalaties). And I think ON has the right conditions in place for slowly relaxing the policy restrictions.
  17. I wish I’d watched that ‘99 World Cup. It was just before my introduction to cricket. Aus, SA, Pakistan, NZ and even Zimbabwe had very strong teams. I’ve watched many of the highlights - a fantastic tournament. ODI cricket tournaments went down the gurgler thereafter, with that bizarre World Cup final in the West Indies (Aus v Sri Lanka) as nadir.
  18. Go Maritimes! Would be nice to see some parts of Canada achieve a semblance of normalcy soon. Nunavut of course has been on top of this from the get-go :P.
  19. Canada closed its borders (even its extremely well-travelled US land border) in the same week as Australia. I'm not going to give ScoMo credit for simply doing what every other developed country was doing! Again, I'd say that geography > policy. Agree on the state borders though - I think that may have helped the less-populous states. Onya SA.
  20. Agreed - the curve isn't bending quickly enough in Canada for May to be a realistic start to re-opening. June at the earliest for most large provinces. Minor point...Ford said no sports until August (even behind closed doors). Sad but expected!
  21. Perhaps I was premature in praising BC? They have seen a mini-spike in new cases recently and their testing rate is the lowest across all Provinces (1,397 per 100,000 people). 100 fatalities is still low though for a population of 5m. Ford was right to kick some ass on Ontario testing - it's now up to 1,646 per 100,000 residents. Still need to catch up with Alberta (about 3,000) and Quebec (2,377).
  22. I don't think nearly as many Australians leave the country period, but especially in the summer. Many of my family members go years without leaving Perth (which is further from Canberra or Sydney than London is from Moscow or Ankara). Canada is so close to the US and Europe compared to Australia that it's not really a fair comparison. There's also the possibility that Canada imported the (potentially more malign) European strain of the virus, while Australia had the milder, original strain. Overall, I would probably credit natural advantages as the main explainer of difference (e.g. isolation/low density living/southern hemisphere seasons), rather than any particular policy, cultural or behavioural attributes. On the flip side, I give Australia, ScoMo and the individual States a lot of credit for not stuffing it up (which they kind of did for the bushfires) and for a bold economic response. ETA: The virus did get in to some nursing homes (particularly in and around Sydney), but not on the same scale as Ontario or Quebec. And Australia is most definitely not skinny - around 2/3 of Australian adults are classified overweight or obese.
  23. To revive some of the sharing of cricket memories...thought I would post some cricket moments that make me laugh. And what better starting point than some classic moments from the giver that never stopped giving...Inzamam-ul-Haq: Out obstructing the field against India Out hit wicket v Panesar A few classic run outs Inzy got run out 40 times in ODIs (hehe). Yousuf also got run out 38 times...you have to wonder how many of them were Inzamam's fault.
  24. So...who's downloaded the app? I'm guessing that your average ASOIAF-forum aussie is going to be a non-downloader.
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