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Everything posted by Paxter

  1. I'm with you here. The sharp-dip-and-snapback (or "V-shaped") scenario relies on demand rebounding back to where it was at the start of the pandemic. That is wildly improbably when you factor in all-time lows in consumer sentiment, widespread unemployment, moribund investment and significantly lower trade. Some industries (tourism, aviation, oil and gas, events) are looking at a multi-year revenue decline. Fiscal stimulus will help of course (more than monetary policy, which was already dead in the water as a recession-fighting tool), but it will only ever be a stabiliser and a less-than-perfect compensation for depressed demand. The stockmarket for sure is overvalued again. While the "first wave" of the pandemic has been priced in, there is too much uncertainty for investors to trade on good information RE: future waves and the magnitude and duration of the recession. A couple of weeks ago the Bank of Canada went so far as to suspend its regular economic forecasts due to the uncertainty.
  2. I guess it depends on the jurisdiction. Here in Canada the number of active cases nationwide is still growing every day - we haven’t (yet) seen the sharp falls experienced in Austria and Germany as people recover and new cases decrease. While there is some cause for cautious optimism, I’m not seeing any complacent or bullish statements or policy relaxation from any major arm of government.
  3. The next phase in the Italian response is a quite cautious step (restaurants open for take away, solo exercise permitted, public spaces open with conditions). I don’t think anyone is claiming that Europe is “out of the woods”.
  4. While it's way too early to say anything conclusive, my understanding is that longer-term effects, like lung damage and ARDS, are more prevalent in people who had severe symptoms (e.g. people who needed ICU/ventilators). This wouldn't really be in the "1-in-4" territory, particularly for the under-60 crowd. ETA: I totally agree with your overall point though. It's harder to see a return to "normality" if these long-term effects are prevalent.
  5. Makes sense. I think we're at least four weeks away from this in ON, maybe longer if they can't get the test/trace thing happening soon.
  6. Yeah I haven't yet had a great curry in the UK. It's probably a bit like pizzerias in Italy...you have to do your homework a little bit to find the right place.
  7. Haha I love it FB. But I agree with BFC in the sense that you may not be able to sell this analysis to Trump's base...
  8. True, but we don't know that is how the stats will end up. You're correct based on the overall data, but the US is now steadily tracking at around 2,000-2,500 fatalities per day, compared to 400-500 in Italy. There's your 5x multiplier. Obviously the Lombardia situation skews Italy's earlier stats, but NY might end up having a similar effect. On the subject of Italy, I hope we have moved past the point of accusations (not on this Board - just generally) that they have performed particularly badly in terms of government and health response. You could argue that they actually performed pretty well considering they didn't have the opportunity to learn from the responses of other Western countries and have a slightly older population, especially in the hard-hit North.
  9. Yeah Bush’s record on Katrina, the financial crisis, tax cuts, Iraq...it’s pretty shocking. And easily overlooked because Trump is such a dick.
  10. Exactly how I feel. It's one thing for her to go "all in" with Jimmy, as she sees him as the love of her life. But to go even more evil than Jimmy re: Howard...that just seems weird. I know there's plenty of history between Kim and Howard, but that hasn't bubbled up for a long time. She has long since won that battle by getting Mesa Verde.
  11. BC has been a laggard in testing, along with Ontario. I’d expect the spike to be due to a ramp-up. Alberta has the best testing numbers per capita of the more populous provinces, so their new cases data is skewed higher. Not sure about the latest spike!
  12. I don't see this as likely, particularly if Ardern stays on as PM (election slated for Sept). Aus/NZ relations are historically strong, but there has been a noticeable souring in recent years.
  13. I’d expect ON’s numbers to plateau for the next two weeks rather than fall, on account of the expanded testing. That doesn’t mean cases aren’t actually falling in reality. Canada seems to be out of the growth period for this first wave. All eyes on Europe over the next four to six weeks to see how the slight relaxing of policy goes.
  14. The WHO has come out with some initial results on antibody tests...and it's not great reading. Even in hard-hit areas, only 2-3% of the population had the virus. It feels way too early to say anything definitive based on these early results, but it does make me feel less comfortable about future waves.
  15. The RCMP fascination/obsession is an interesting element too. Changing tack back to COVID, I notice that Alberta's testing numbers are pretty high. Is that driving the spike we've seen there in recent days? Fatalities-wise, Alberta is still tracking OK (similar to BC).
  16. It looks increasingly likely that VA (Virgin Aus) is going to head into VA (Voluntary Administration). I can see why ScoMo doesn't want to get the chequebook out here (personally I am very 50:50 on shelling out taxpayer $ to overly indebted companies), but I do worry about the consumer outcomes. I'm also selfishly happy that nearly all of my frequent flyer points are with Qantas!
  17. He was a dentist who has been out of business due to the current situation...maybe lockdown drove him mad? Still trying to make sense of that one. It’s a weird news environment for this (very big) story to break in.
  18. I’d add Taiwan to your list of good performers. Some smaller European countries are also faring well or at least significantly better (Austria, non-Swedish Nordics).
  19. Something similar happened in Canada @Ran. British Columbia had a later spring break and has far fewer cases than Quebec and Ontario. Luck of the draw really.
  20. Comparing Kumble to Lyon makes me a bit queasy. But yeah...I guess. For sure he’s not even in Warne and Murali’s realm.
  21. Greenland is not a country though right? Just sayin’...having a cool/weird flag makes not a nation state. Go Mauritania!
  22. Murali got an absolutely ridiculous number of 10-fors. More than double Warne (who is second on the list behind Murali). It is so hard to compare them though. Murali ripped it hard both ways. Warne had a big spinning leg-break but relied more on flight, dip and the straighter one. Warne had McGrath and co. to compete with but also to help tie the opposition down. Murali was Sri Lanka’s entire attack. And then of course there’s the eternal debate about actions. In hindsight we were very lucky to be able to watch them plus Kumble in the same era. Guys like Swann and Lyon are...good, combative cricketers and skillful in their own way. But not masters.
  23. BC kicking some ass. I wonder if the early scare there actually helped them contain the situation earlier (e.g. less spring breakers, more attention to nursing homes). That seems to be what happened in Washington state across the border. I know the numbers look bad this week...but they are still relatively stable and in keeping with some of the jurisdictions that have performed well (thinking particularly of Germany here). To put it in perspective, there are about the same number of cases in Michigan than all of Canada. Keep that border closed!
  24. Fair enough re: Warne. I kinda like his fire and that he doesn’t pull punches (e.g. he laid into Australia’s fast bowlers two summers ago). But he’s a dick for sure. I miss Greigy tbh on the commentary front.
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