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Everything posted by Paxter

  1. Hoping that yesterday's data is a sign of things to come...another sad day with 43 deaths, but the gap between new cases and recoveries is narrowing. Yesterday we were up to 674 recoveries (highest so far) and 1,155 new cases (lower than the weekend's 1,500+ figures).
  2. I recommend getting on eBay and finding some good highlight DVDs! Bit old school, but there’s nothing I enjoy more than watching VVS on-drive Warnie through the rough in Kolkata, or Harmison nearly knocking Punter’s block off. YouTube also works pretty well! Maybe we should start a top test cricket moments thread? Hehe.
  3. Possibly. On the facts of the case, he might not have been prosecuted at all if he’d been a run-of-the-mill cleric. You could argue that his status worked against rather than for him, at least in some respects. Anyway, he got a year in jail of the minimum three and a bit sentenced. He was still convicted by a jury of his peers. And it’s the end of his career in the Vatican. It’s not nothing. It’s certainly a lot more than other jurisdictions have managed.
  4. And there it is. The HCA quashes the decisions of the inferior courts and releases Pell. I’m not at all surprised given what happened on appeal.
  5. Spain seems to be reaping the rewards of a (relatively) early national lockdown. While the stats are still horrific, the new cases and fatalities data is trending downwards at a slightly earlier stage than, say, Italy, Japan is worth watching this week.
  6. Urgh that is shitty @Jeor. Hope you get something of a kitchen/lounge upgrade out of it!
  7. It's hard to sell this as a positive stat, but Italy's daily fatalities number is effectively unchanged since March 21 (at about 800/day). This is the kind of "bending" that the national lockdown was designed to achieve. But obviously the risk of further waves in the hitherto less-affected South remains significant.
  8. Yeah I think the Provincial Government is warming us up for a crackdown too. As I mentioned yesterday, the data doesn't look great and the modelling is further cause for concern.
  9. Even if you take out QC, I don't love the curve. ON, for example, was averaging 150 new cases a day last week. This week it's gone to around 350 per day (today was 401 new cases). So are we moving to 1,000 a day in ON by next week? Take a comparable state in Australia and you are not seeing that kind of growth. ETA: Worth noting that Aus is also testing more.
  10. I think looking at Australia’s numbers is skewing my perception. They seem to be having a lot of success in reducing the daily rate. Not fair to compare for a whole host of reasons.
  11. I guess there’s still a chance we are Korea and not France in that graph! Good link.
  12. Agreed, but it’s still the best data we have. Daily new cases is even more flawed given testing limitations and inconsistencies.
  13. The data I didn’t like was the Ontario daily new cases data. It looked like the same pattern we’ve seen in Europe. I certainly am hoping to be completely wrong!
  14. I can see the Provinces and the Feds going even more draconian after this weekend. The latest Canadian data isn't overly promising - it looks eerily like a Euro trajectory.
  15. Yes but this was a rather large re-classification of nursing home deaths - representing more than half of the reported fatalities. From what I’m reading anyway!
  16. Fact checking required on that French fatalities data. Most of them seem to be unreported deaths from earlier.
  17. Maybe slightly lost in the current news environment but: we are about to (finally) see an end to the Pell legal battle. I have been very conflicted on this case from the beginning and, whichever way the HCA goes, I'm not sure I'll ever feel great about it. On the one hand I have a very strong sense of pride that Australia is one of only a select few jurisdictions to prosecute a high-ranking cleric for child sex offences. It shows that nobody is above the law in this country, even when they are in the Pope's inner circle and can get character references from ex-PMs. I'm also pleased that the Court revoked his bail and didn't allow house arrest or any other arrangement. He's been in jail for over a year now and I am not aware that he has received better treatment than any other convicted sex offender. On the other hand, there is a reason why we had a dissenting judgement at the Victorian Court of Appeal. There are undoubtedly a few issues with the Crown's case. And I want our justice system to be completely and utterly free from bias (at least insofar as this is ever possible!) So let's see what the Full Bench of the HCA says.
  18. That's super annoying. I've been on the running bandwagon given gym closures. Generally doing around 6 km in 35 mins. Goal is to get below 30 before too long. I'm recovering from a torn MCL so can't push it too hard yet...
  19. I'm not convinced about the masks personally (though of course I'm no expert!) I think the success (hitherto) of countries like Japan, S Korea, Taiwan is more down to: Taking the virus very seriously from the get go (c.f. USA) Rapidly rolling out testing and "seek and isolate" programs Having populations that are respectful of social distancing rules Haha. That will go down well in WA. There is nothing West Aussies like more than creating a clear divide with the "Eastern States".
  20. Ah sorry, I was looking at NSW only. But even 300/day is good going compared to most other Western countries.
  21. Brings to mind Friedman's line: "We are all Keynesians now".
  22. Pretty good health data coming out of Australia compared to other jurisdictions. Who knows if the warmer weather is helping, but to be in a situation of only 100 new cases per day (as of yesterday) is cause for optimism. Canada is tracking over 1000+ a day at this point.
  23. There’s also the argument that a rapid ramp up in health care capacity will let us deal somewhat better with a spike - so a delayed spike is better than no change at at all.
  24. I was simply citing the current data as evidence for stabilization. I am not declaring a peak for Italy, though of course, it's possible the peak has been reached if the national lockdown works in the manner hoped. As a Calabrese by ancestry, I am well aware of deficiencies in public health services in the Mezzagiorno.
  25. There is some evidence of stabilization of new cases and fatalities/day across some of the nations with the most reported cases: Italy: Peak fatalities of 919 on March 27, currently at 727. Peak new cases of 6,557 on March 21, currently at 4,782. Spain: Peak fatalities of 913 on March 30, currently at 598. Peak new cases of 8,271 on March 26, currently at 6,213. Germany: Peak fatalities of 130 yesterday, today at 73 (which is the lowest daily number for a week or so). Peak new cases of 6,993 on March 27, currently at 3,946. France, US and the UK are of course some way off peaking on both these measures.
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