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alguien

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About alguien

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    formerly "nadie"
  • Birthday 06/09/1981

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  1. No need to even hold a hearing about Blinken, he's already been interviewed by the best (clip from 2016): Grover recently met with Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken to talk about refugees, and how they're just like you and me (and Grover).
  2. "If you get rid of the filibuster, there's no reason to have a Senate." ... I mean, don't threaten me with a good time...
  3. I love this--thank you! I still think not having the Senate could drastically handicap us, but this is great info.
  4. Deep breaths, big boy. Deep breaths. First of all, I meant "left" in a general sense, like the whole Democratic party. That was not aimed at you. Second, your hissy fit won't mean shit if we don't have the senate and is baffling counterproductive. I'm pretty far left and you're making us look like a bunch of assholes. FTR, I agree that it's way too early to play any blame games, but I also don't see the use in getting angry about it.
  5. Agree. I voted for Bernie in the WA primary (I was going to vote for Warren, but when I realized she was about to drop out, I waited until she did and Sanders got it). Would have been happy with Bernie, but I figured if Biden got it, a vote for Bernie would still be a left nudge. Which it so far has been. But will be largely negated if we don't get the Senate. Ergo, even though I know it's unlikely, my focus is on Georgia. (I know you know this, just typing it out loud.) Though frankly, I would donate money to whoever Lloeffler's opponent is because of how disgusted I am at her plague profiteering. The fact that her opponent is Warnock is a pleasant bonus.
  6. Bwahahaha! "Mwah, mwah! But they started it!" Really? Jesus.
  7. Yep. It's some people don't realize these tantrums won't mean shit if the GOP gets control of the Senate. I'm going to focus on helping out them folks in Georgia in the next few months, or else the Biden battlefield changes drastically with Moscow Mitch as a blocker. I plan to start donating time and money... and basically just doing whatever the fuck Stacey Abrams says, honestly.
  8. The sun is shining, the leaves are turning gold and red, and the left has resumed its circular firing squad. Nature is healing itself.
  9. Took a break from these threads for a couple days (some of y'all's Eeyore-esque doomsaying was a leetle TOO stressful on Tuesday), so this may have been addressed already, but what's up with North Carolina? Does Cunningham have any chance to mount a come back as mail-in votes are tallied?
  10. Yeah, hometown pride! Every state should do this. So much easier, so much less stressful.
  11. Not necessarily at all, sadly. It is a possibility and no one is denying that. I'm an editor for Dungeons & Dragons (well, Pathfinder, but same diff). I know how strong a 1/10 chance is. 1/10 is worrisome given how absolutely shitty Trump is. I would be absolutely shocked if Trump won the popular vote. I'd be shocked if he won all or most of the midwest and rustbelt states legally. I'd be surprised, but less shocked if he lost the popular vote, kept it close in certain states, and tried to steal the election. In the scope of negative outcomes, that's the one I'm finding most likely and worrisome. But worrisome doesn't make it likely overall. Because, ya know, by definition, a 1/10 chance is unlikely. You're not basing any of your guesses on facts. I mean--you cited Trafalgar in your response. Do you know how terrible of a loaded poll they are? So yeah, fear = pessimism. Which I guess is fine if that's your strategy for staying sane in this trying time. 2016 burned us all and 2020 is an extremely odd year.
  12. I think Biden will win the popular vote. By what margin, I'm less sure, but my guess is 7%. With polling errors, I expect there to be some due to quarantine and this president introducing uncertainty, but what I was arguing against was that all these errors would go in Trump's favor. In some states, I think it's just as likely they're underpolling Biden's support as in other states they're overpolling it.
  13. If you made the similar prediction in the opposite direction, I’d disagree with that as well (though I probably would wish it were true). Look, I don’t think it’s in the bag for Biden, there are too many variables. But I’m... very very cautiously optimistic. At the worst I think there will be polling errors in states that benefit both sides. Like with Minnesota... what you’re doing is cherry-picking data to support a fear. These are not the same circumstances and also most polls have tried to correct for their errors in 2016. Now, it’s entirely possible (perhaps likely) that there are whole new factors that haven’t been accounted for. But to predict that these all go trumps way doesn’t make sense to me.
  14. Yeah but the opposite logic applies. Saying it will be foggy and rainy doesn't make it foggy and rainy. It helps to, you know, look at a forecast. I mean, at least my fellow Washingtonian Kalbear's pessimism is based in some logic. (I may not agree with all of it, but I understand it.) Whereas you basically wrote the equivalent of "WOE UNTO US ALL SINNERS AND REPENT FOR THE END IS NIGH!" with no basis for it beyond fear in your gut.
  15. Aren't you a ray of fucking sunshine.
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