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Fez

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About Fez

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    Like A Thundering Lizard
  • Birthday 11/18/1987

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  1. Fez

    US Poll-itics

    Oh in most regular cases he'll almost always rule with the conservative majority no matter what his preference is; assuming he can't flip another judge with him. As Chief Justice, he always gets to assign who writes the majority opinion, so long as he's in the majority. By always ruling with the other conservatives, he can do a lot to ensure that they don't make rulings that go beyond what he's comfortable with. Of course, if he restrains them too much the other 5 could leave the opinion and make a new majority without him. So his power isn't infinite, but there's still quite a bit he can do. But I think that's different from a blatantly illegal, unjustifiable coup next week.
  2. Fez

    US Poll-itics

    It does matter. Robert+Gorsuch+three liberals is a majority, Kavanaugh isn't the swing justice. Roberts has had plenty of bad rulings, but its also been clear that he's been trying to protect the court's reputation from getting completely destroyed. Also, Republicans' haste to confirm Barrett before the election rather than in the lame duck is a pretty clear indication that they don't trust Roberts and want a majority without him. But they need Gorsuch to actually have that majority. At this point, I'm not concerned about voter suppression or ballot access, those ships have sailed for the time being. Right now, I'm concerned about shit like "not counting all the ballots that are already physically in the possession of the boards of election". I always thought Alito, Thomas, and Barrett would go for that if it helped Trump. I wasn't sure about Kavanaugh, but it looks like he will too. I don't think Gorsuch will though, and I'm confident Roberts won't.
  3. Fez

    US Poll-itics

    I will say that, having read Gorsuch's concurrence, I'm still quite worried but a bit less so. His opinion seems much more along the lines of Roberts', rather than Kavanaugh's (and though Kavanugh joined Gorsuch's concurrence, Gorsuch did not join Kavanaugh's). I think my read of Gorsuch is hopefully still true; which is that he'll allow no leeway on voting access beyond the literal text of state law, but isn't going to blatantly steal the election either. Which means it'll come down to what the lawsuits are alleging and what the specific laws of those states are.
  4. Fez

    US Poll-itics

    That was the old 4-4 court; now there's a new and improved 5-4 court.
  5. Fez

    US Poll-itics

    Not midnight, since that's before the polls even close in Alaska (or Hawaii, not that they'd care about that) and they might not those 3 EVs. But yeah, it's become much more important that Biden is winning states totaling at least 270 EVs by about 9am Nov. 4. State election officials better be ready to count overnight. Kavanugh is going blatant with the "flip" language in his concurrence (which Kagan rightly calls out in her dissent). One good bit of news on that front, I've seen some election folks starting to say that Biden will likely be winning Arizona on election night regardless of what happens. Democrats got their mail-in votes in so quickly, and its Republicans lagging that likely need a late count to get to whatever the true. final margin is.
  6. Fez

    US Poll-itics

    Might not any law about it, but still seems odd. Per the SCOTUS website https://www.supremecourt.gov/about/oath/oathsofoffice.aspx the oaths of office are always administered by the Chief Justice or the senior Associate Justice (who does it for an incoming chief justice). That does happen to be Thomas. But everyone on the court currently had at least one of their two oaths administered by the Chief Justice (except Roberts himself). Even Thomas, who swore the constitutional oath in a public ceremony administered by Byron White, had William Rehnquist administer the judicial oath in a courthouse conference room.
  7. Fez

    US Poll-itics

    In other news, this is kinda weird... I wonder if Roberts didn't feel safe with WH COVID procedures or if the WH didn't invite him. Although, in either case, I also wonder if Roberts will need to privately administer the oath again to her?
  8. Fez

    US Poll-itics

    The commission draws the state legislative districts. I'm not saying those would get redrawn, I'm sure that'll be a just fine gerrymander. I'm saying they'd redraw the court-created congressional districts, which courts will create because the state legislature deadlocks (assuming Democrats win the state house). My understanding is that the commission only does state districts, not congress.
  9. Fez

    US Poll-itics

    Texas is literally the state that did this in 2003; why do you think they wouldn't do it again?
  10. Fez

    US Poll-itics

    League of United Latin American Citizens vs. Perry. The Supreme Court held in 2006 that states are free to redistrict as often as they please. This was the case that came up after Texas Republicans did mid-cycle redistricting in 2003 after taking the Teas state house in 2002.
  11. Fez

    US Poll-itics

    Yeah, it's rough. The other 4 commission members were all re-elected in 2018 too, so none of them are up this year (Lt. Gov, Attorney General, State Comptroller, and Commissioner of the General Land Office). The fifth is the Speaker of the State House. I'm not sure why there's no one from the state senate on the commission; possibly Republicans were more concerned about losing the state senate when they passed the law creating the commission. Possibly Democrats could sue about the commission; but I'd be surprised if it went anywhere. Maybe if they take the state senate also this year (which is possible, although no one seems to expect it), they could force the issue a bit better. They'd still need Abbott's signature, and won't have the numbers to veto override him. But with both chambers they could make his life very difficult, and maybe he'd be open to signing a relatively fair map. Probably a pipe dream though.
  12. Fez

    US Poll-itics

    Taking the Texas House would be huge, but it would also probably be a two-year rental unfortunately. The Texas Legislature and Governor draw congressional district lines (and it goes to the courts if they can't), but Texas law provides for a backup commission to draw the state legislative lines if the state legislature deadlocks. It's a 5-person commission of specific office holders, and Republicans would have a 4-1 majority if Democrats take the state house (right now it's a 5-0 majority). If Democrats take the state house, Republicans can just refuse to negotiate with them and throw it to the commission to create a new legislative gerrymander. And then after taking back the state house in 2022, they can mid-cycle redistrict the congressional lines to create a new gerrymander there in place for 2024. Texas Democrats could try playing severe hardball here, but I just don't see any path forwards for them. Their best hope is probably Texas Republicans deciding that any overly ambitious gerrymander would be too unstable due to changing voting patterns and creating only a modest gerrymander.
  13. Fez

    US Poll-itics

    I was surprised by that. Usually Rasmussen plays it straight in the last couple weeks before an election, so they can point to how accurate they were last time when the next election cycle starts up. At this rate they're going to end up the next Zogby (though Trafalgar may have already taken that mantle).
  14. If Biden really wins by even 6 points, I'm not sure its possible for him to actually only be at that 279-259 EC map. The swing states you list, plus Texas which is right there, have about 30% of the US population. If Biden is losing all of them, even if it's only by very little, can he really win the other 70% of the country by enough to have an overall 6 point national win? Sure he could rack up margins in CA and NY, but there's plenty of mid-sized red states to counterbalance most of the other mid-sized blue states. I'm just not sure the math works out there. Even at 5 points it seems pretty dicey; 4 points or lower though, and yeah, I can see it.
  15. I don't think that's quite right. Chad much often seems like its used as a term of endearment; like all those "Virgin X vs. Chad Y" memes. And all the variations of "Look at that absolute unit. What a Chad."
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