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Posts posted by Fez

  1. 4 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

    Wagner keeps making statements about various military units either refusing orders to fight or outright defecting and joining up.  No way of knowing if this is true, because it totally benefits them to lie.  But I imagine that option is worried about the loyalty of any troops it has to rely on.  They can call kadyrov, but what if the Chechens switch sides?  What is the drama between prigozhin and the Chechens was just manufactured for deception (a la the latest Abercrombie book).

    That one at least we should find out on soon. There's footage of the Chechen columns getting close to Rostov.

  2. 10 minutes ago, Werthead said:

    Yeah, Priogzhin's winning chances are rocketing up the clearer it becomes the Russia really does have jack shit to stop him with.

    The part puzzling me is the lack of air assaults. There's been a few Russian attack helicopters and a few missile strikes, but that seems to be it. Wagner does have some air defenses, but not that much really; far less than Ukraine had in Feb 2022. Russia should have easy air superiority and be able to quickly annihilate the Wagner convoys. But that hasn't happened. Only thing that makes sense to me is that the air force are refusing orders, or have even swapped sides, en masse. But there's no evidence (yet) that any other elements of the Russian military/security forces are acting that way; and it would seem odd if only the air force had switched. 

  3. There are reports of prisoner riots beginning in Moscow. Almost certainly in response to all this, but unknown if it's opportunism or something Wagner actually coordinated. They certainly have plenty of contacts in the penal system.

    Overall though, yeah this convey heading to Moscow only succeeds if there's allies ready to join them. So far there hasn't been that much resistance to Wagner, but there hasn't been much evidence of anyone switching sides either. 

  4. 1 minute ago, Werthead said:

    Or he thinks the Russian MoD is 95% committed to Ukraine and the only major military units between him and Moscow are the Jack and Shit Brigades. Hence the overwhelming focus on the Rosgvardia, who are basically heavily-armed police (and have suffered losses of their own in Ukraine). Prigozhin is also banking on many forces opposing him refusing to open fire.

    This is a one-shot power run at Moscow. It might not pay off but maybe it has a 30% chance of succeeding, not the 5% some people are thinking.

    Yeah. I wouldn't bet mony on Prigozhin, but I think he has a real chance at this working out. He needs some things to go right for sure, but not an insurmountable amount.

    And if he does win, the parallels to 1917 get even stronger. If Nicholas II had kept more of his loyalist veterans with him rather then sent to the frontlines he might have withstood the February Revolution.

  5. 7 hours ago, Slurktan said:

    That's the boss that got me frustrated with the Barb.  The bullet hell aspect is really annoying for melee. However I easily one shot her tier II on my werewolf druid.  I had to drop to  tier 1 to beat her with the Barb.  Barb just doesn't seem to do enough damage early on so the bullet hell gets out of control.

    I died a second time on my whirlwind build. So I swapped to a bleed build and easily cleared it. Unfortunately bleed doesn't seem that fun outside of boss fights; too slow to ramp up the damage against trash. 

    It's a shame that you can't save build templates. Even if you have to pay to respec each time, it would be nice if you could save what you want. Because I could see it getting really old real fast if I regular need to swap around.

  6. 32 minutes ago, Kalnestk Oblast said:

    Why not?

    31 are the basic 'kept this document' which is like charging someone for 31 different items shoplifted. It's accurate but not particularly meaningful. None carry a very large sentence. The other 6 have wide latitude in how they're punished. More importantly none of the charge show any actual damages caused. 

    And a powerful white dude in the US doing a crime that did not actually cause direct harm (at least as far as we can tell) - they're gonna get nothing. That kind of crime never gets particularly heavily punished. 

    Anyone else convicted of this charges, up to and include top-level White House staff, cabinet secretaries, or members of congress, would face significant prison time. I agree that there's a decent chance Trump won't, but only because he was President. There's ton of other, less powerful white dudes who would be finished if convicted here. And I wouldn't rule out Trump too; especially if he doesn't win the GOP nomination and therefore there's less concern about the political fallout.

  7. 7 minutes ago, DMC said:

    Democrats pushing for debt limit overhaul bill:

    Not gonna pass the GOP House, but this woulda been a good idea when they had unified government.  Could maybe get 60 votes in the Senate.

    Next time Democrats have a trifecta they should push it again. Although if that should be 2025, I don't know if they'll be willing to immediately spend political capital on this; which they'd have to with the current 1/1/25 debt ceiling deadline (although that's pre-next round of emergency measures, so there'd be a few months).

  8. 36 minutes ago, Darryk said:

    Well I managed to kill Vhenard, I'm moving up in the world!

    Got to her this morning on my barb. It was the first time I died in game; haven't beaten her yet. I felt like I was doing decent damage, it was just too hard to avoid the damage. Which feels like maybe a weakness of melee in general, rather than a barbarian specific problem? Not sure yet.

  9. Lol, the judge is Aileen Cannon, the one that tried appointing a special master to the investigation until the circuit court slapped her down. What a shitshow if she's still presiding when this goes to trial.

    ETA: There's a good chance she won't be; either from the circuit stepping in early to order her to recuse herself or from DOJ appealing the assignment.

  10. 7 hours ago, Slurktan said:

    I've had the opposite experience.  Granted I've only done up to level 20 but Barb is the least fun of all the classes for me.  Running a straight wolf shift druid is much, much better than the barb at this point. And that's not even that good.

    Dunno. Personal opinions and all that. I'm only up to 15 on Barb now, but I'm having a blast. If I pop rallying cry at the right moment I can have basically unlimited uptime on whirldwind if there's enough enemies around; it's very satisfying.

  11. 23 minutes ago, DMC said:

    Hm.  Trying to think about the implications here.  I'd think it'd only give them one more seat - going from one to two - in Alabama.  But it may help them in the Louisiana cases if SCOTUS remains consistent.  May even help them in North Carolina.  I guess we'll see.

    The big thing will be whether this gets applied to the Florida case going to trial this summer. But even without that, I think it gives them anywhere from +1 to +4 (AL, LA, NC, and GA- there was a similar case in GA that was put on hold pending the outcome of the AL case).

  12. Well I just played through the prologue again lol, this time as a barbarian. And I think I finally found my class. The attacks just feels so impactful and smooth. Time to finally start playing through the game!

  13. 31 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

    Per an NPR Report just blasted the SCOTUS has upheld the VRA regarding racial gerrymandering in an a Alabama case.  5-4 Roberts writing for the Majority.



    A major shock. Looks Kavanaugh was the other conservative in the majority. This is going to net Democrats an extra couple seats in the House.

  14. 51 minutes ago, DMC said:

    Dunno I'd go that far.  All they'd be blocking are messaging bills the leadership wants to pass.  Which, of course is performative and not actual governance either.  If this was happening under unified government it'd be a different story. 

    Some of those messaging bills can be legit tough votes for Democrats. Some can even end up as law, like the DC criminal code recission. Biden didn't actually threaten a veto on the gas stove bill in his disapproval message.

  15. 57 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

    Is the “Freedom Caucus” attempting some performative bullshit in the HoR?  I see Boebert and Gaetz all caps typing “WE HOLD THE FLOOR” on twitter.


    It's what I was posting about yesterday, with the failed rule vote. They seem to be threatening to keep doing that. Which, if they succeed, is more than performative. It means that House Republican Leadership will not be able to hold any votes on anything else, without either caving to the HFC or cutting a deal with Democrats (which is very unlikely for many reasons, for anything short of ending a shutdown).

  16. Decided to be part of the gaming zeitgiest for the first time in a while and picked this up too. I've gone through the prologue as both a rogue (melee) and sorcerer (ice) and I can't decide between them which I want to stick with. 

  17. 1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

    I really haven't been following this topic because it's so weird sounding. Why did this become such a big issue?

    Do you mean the HFC actions or the underlying bill around gas stoves?

    With gas stoves, there was another report a few months back finding that they're a significant source of indoor air pollution. And relatedly, New York passed a law banning stoves for new homes built starting in 2025; as part of their effort to shift the state more toward renewable energy. As a result, as with every change no matter how big or small, conservatives took this as a foundational attack on their way of life and it became yet another huge culture war fight.

    With the HFC, they're a bunch of whiny loudmouths who are pissed that McCarthy managed to bypass them on the debt ceiling and are acting out. But they aren't trying to remove him (yet, at least) because there is no one else who can win a Speaker vote right now. So instead they forced the first floor vote failure on a rule since 2002.

  18. Things are getting spicy in the House. Republicans planned to pass a resolution barring the administration from implementing new regulations on gas stoves (just a meaningless messaging bill since the senate will probably never vote on it). But in the floor vote on the rule to allow debate, most of the HFC voted 'no' in protest of the debt limit bill. And since all Democrats voted 'no' since its a dumb bill (and the minority party almost always votes no rules no matter what), the vote is currently failing 207-219.

    The vote hasn't been closed yet (after 50 minutes), so maybe something gets worked out. But if this isn't a one-off, the House is now ungovernable without Democratic support.

  19. 13 minutes ago, DaveSumm said:

    But I don’t understand what the paradox actually is. Yes, it’s extremely probable life exists on other planets. But I don’t understand the logic leap from there to “and also they probably have figured out interstellar communication / travel by now”. Everything we know about physics tells us the light speed limit is absolute, at best you can bend things a a bit using EXTRAORDINARY amounts of energy, and even then there’s no getting round the relativistic problems involved (any travellers would have to live with the fact that their species will move on many centuries in the time it takes to get anywhere).

    I'm no expert. But my understanding we already have some decent theoretical models for warp drives, and if we don't wipe ourselves out maybe we get to test them out eventually. An alien species that was more peaceful than ours, and with a bit more advanced energy production, could probably test them at roughly our current level of technology. Maybe none of them actually work in practice, but to me it seems like the paradox is still fully in place.

  20. On 5/24/2023 at 10:03 AM, Fez said:

    Yesterday I moved everything I had in the stock market to cash in preparation for a debt ceiling-related crash. Fortunately, the tax implications of that will be pretty minor for me. If I'm wrong, I'll sheepishly buy some new index funds in a couple weeks. And if I'm right, at least I'll be able to "buy the dip" while the economic chaos unfolds.

    Happy to sheepishly be wrong and I have bought some new investments instead. And in the case of my Roth IRA, I literally just rebought some of my old positions that I had previously been happy with. All in all, since it had such minor tax implications, it actually was a decent opportunity to rebalance my portfolio anyway, and I think things really were dicey a couple weeks ago, I have no regrets.

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