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Lord Corlys Velaryon

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  1. That's only canon in the show. There's zero indication in the books that the Rock has run out of gold. Tywin sacked the Riverlands, as it were, because that's just how he rolls. He had no reason to cancel the crown's debts to the Lannisters so wouldn't, especially considering his father's outrageous lending & Tywin's own failure of securing further political gain when he bailed out Aerys with the Iron Bank. Nor does Robert seem to have asked his good-father to even reduce, let alone forgive, the debt anyway. Even if the Lannisters themselves were running out of gold from their mines, as long as that crown debt remains & keeps being paid, they'd still earn money from that. And of course, there's the incomes of their own lands & of their vassals (several of whom still have profitable mines) that makes its way to the Rock through taxation. You're English is more than fine, I wouldn't have thought it may not be your first language had you not said so.
  2. I've thought about this as well. Keep in mind though, they took off from within Harrenhal & the dying Caraxes was able to pull himself ashore before expiring, so it seems the dragons clashed only a short distance over the lake. Perhaps the Gods Eye's infamous currents eventually washed them up or there was a severe drought during Aegon III's reign, exposing Vhagar's bones. After all, not only is Dark Sister recovered some years after the draconic fight, but Vhagar's skull ends up in the Red Keep.
  3. Ah, so they did. Serves me right for not checking the wiki first. Yeah, I'd say you're correct. Chances are Lord Alton (or his successor) was among those who lost lands for their former support of Maegor when Jaehaerys I became king, thus the Butterwells were relieved of LHT. The Rootes had also supported Aegon the Uncrowned against his usurping uncle, so that's surely why they were given the town. Oh I forgot about the MUSH. I had assumed that Derrick & Roland were among the Darry children that survived Vhagar flames & say in their (early) teens - thus making them lesser Lads - but the MUSH would have it perhaps otherwise. Do you think they were Lord & Lady Darry's children or their uncles/cousins? Only Roland & Derrick are the MUSH characters in the family tree who are canon (besides seemingly Rosamund to some degree & assuming that list hasn't been updated since then), but as you say, their information doesn't quite match what's in F&B (I wonder if GRRM tweaked the Darrys a little post TPatQ/TWoIaF, hence the discrepancy). It'd be interesting if the remaining children were only (underage) daughters & they were passed over for their adult uncles (or cousins), whilst that would perhaps be a better fit for Derrick & Roland later leading the Darry forces (although I wonder where they then would've been when Aemond descended on Castle Darry). So how I'm thinking this all works... Lord "Jonothor" dies with his only son on Darry's battlements from Vhagar's fires, his wife & young daughters surviving in the castle vaults. Due to their age, sex, & being in the middle of a war, the late lord's next eldest brother, Derrick, assumes the lordship. Lord Derrick leads the Darry forces at the Second Tumbleton, but dies around the same time as Elmo Tully, so younger brother Roland succeeds him (if Derrick has any children they are too young to rule & perhaps female, besides). Lord Roland leads the Darry men at the Muddy Mess, but is killed by Borros Baratheon. He has at least one son & younger brother/uncle/cousin Ser Damon does not seize the lordship, but rather acts as regent &/or castellan for the boy. Helping to explain why Damon isn't lord in 132, but leads the campaign with Ser Regis Groves of the KG against Harrenhal, who receives the poor bastard who chokes to death, & writes to the Crown of what had transpired. Then one of the Darry daughters, Rosamund (probably Jonothor's child given the MUSH), is in King's Landing the next year for the Maiden's Day Ball. I'm not sure how/where any surviving widows work into all of this though, especially the first who not unlikely would still want her surviving kids to inherit their father, even after Aemond's attack. Perhaps then some years later when Roland's son is old enough to rule, then an-unwed-in-this-case Damon could then maybe join the KG to eventually become its Lord Commander & the "Demon of Darry" as Lord Varys theorises. Alternatively, "Garth" could be an eventually canon younger brother or cousin of Roland at least, who becomes lord after the Battle of the Kingsroad & whose line continues House Darry. Although I'm not sure how that would square with Damon taking the lead against Alys Rivers & her outlaws, if Garth was capable of the tasks. And to quote you, that makes this whole endeavour even more cluttered than it already is with my proposal or some other one.
  4. Yeah, fair call. Whilst he was (very) like born by the time of the Dance, one imagines he'd be at least a man grown (if not, a deal older) to be a notable Black at court. Perhaps even the 160s, depending on how old they were & when exactly Aegon IV impregnated them, which makes it not unlikely - whatever the age of their father - that their mother was a second/later wife. The first may have been past her childbearing years in the 150s beyond & so died in the meantime for Lord Butterwell to be able to wed & have more children with another woman. Yeah, the Butterwells are conspicuously absent from the rest of the Dance. I wonder who they fought for/with & when, there's so many possibilities. Did they somehow manage to otherwise stay neutral or turn cloak for the Blacks, & so targeted by Aemond? Thanks & I appreciate the reply. @Lord Varys Agreed on your thoughts on how the whole Alys Rivers & her son saga will develop. Not in the immediate vicinity of Harrenhal, but the late Strong holdings should've been pretty extensive, especially if they retained their original lands (maybe taken over by Ser Simon's branch). Given their sigil, chances are those were along the Trident, thus (rather) close to Lord Harroway's Town, which may have still been ruled by the Butterwells since Maegor's time or at least, they perhaps could've maneuvered during the Regency to reclaim it. Then there's the implication that the wider Butterwell lands extended well beyond Harrenhal (at least, of later decades), possibly even as far south as the "bottom" of the Gods Eye. Anyway, I'd be surprised if the outlaws push out further than they needed to, before they had greater numbers/Alys' son & the dragon were old enough to leave the castle, that was their strength & sanctuary. Aegon might be too hesitant to involve himself, but Viserys may not be & then there's the Lads. Kermit was apparently a great Tully lord & Oscar will be a battle-hardened warrior if/when he returns from Essos, both eager to end the threat at Harrenhal. Then there's Bloody Ben, Sabitha Vypren, the Darrys, etc. I could see Alys' men getting themselves defeated in open battle against some foe, but able to hold Harrenhal where they slowly rebuild their strength & everything culminates when Aemond's son finally flies out of Harrenhal at their head. Interesting thought & there could be up to a few decades for the Demon of Darry as Lord Commander before the Dragonknight if Raynard Ruskin dies rather early during his tenure leading the Kingsguard. Although Damon could just as likely end up becoming Lord Darry, especially as the Darry lordship was such a revolving door during the Dance. Presumably Derrick & Roland were among the surviving children of the Lord Darry who died on the castle battlements with his heir against Vhagar, which would make Roland a lesser Lad, but who knows. It could be that there was some situation like say a lordly cadet branch of the Darrys existed at this time, helping to explain there being so many Lord Darrys during the Dance. Btw, what do you think the Darry family tree throughout this period of history? That's true, though he certainly would've been at least middle-aged by the time he became the Unworthy's Hand, having a grandson near to or in his teens. As for the wit, I also lean towards your question applying to this grandfather Butterwell given the man Ambrose is in TMK, however he was a Master of Coin & later Hand of the King. Whatever the reasons Ambrose came to both positions, he certainly could've been a witty man in his youth, but losing (much of) it when he's disgraced as Hand, loses his sons, & simply ages. Not to mention, Black Tom Heddle killing his way to the hand of Ambrose's eldest daughter & command of the castle garrison, arguably becoming Lord of Whitewalls in all but name, cowing Butterwell.
  5. As Ambrose was born in 161 or 162, what are the chances that his grandfather was the Lord Butterwell who was a Black at court at the beginning of the Dance & chose to bend the knee to Aegon II? Also, can it be assumed that the Butterwells (greatly) increased their wealth & power by exploiting the local power vacuum/s of the Strongs (Harrenhal & perhaps the original Strong holdings, which given their sigil, is likely on or near the Trident) & in the aftermath of Alys Rivers, her son, & their outlaws eventually being rooted out of Harrenhal?
  6. Good questions. I've wondered if perhaps Varys uses some kind of mind-control drug on the little birds, but IIRC, there's zero hint of that or even of any such substance in the entire series. Besides shade of the evening, but that seems to be more of a psychoactive agent & I doubt it would be effective or useful for what Varys has these specific spies do. So who knows. Hopefully we'll get more of an idea in TWoW.
  7. Disagree that this is a fact: On the south border, a minor lord & 3 landed knights switched fealty to Highgarden, because the Rock couldn't protect them. Outlaws of all kinds plagued the West, likely disproportionately affecting minor houses, rather than more major ones. The Tarbecks were dispossessing their smaller neighbours for their land, whether by force or with coin (or both). Sure, some would've borrowed gold from Tytos without repaying &/or didn't pay the full taxes they owed the Rock, but the Westerlands was such a clusterfuck of lawlessness & misrule in general that these perks just didn't make up for that. Or at least, certainly not for some of the minor houses under Tytos. There's about zero chance of that. Firstly, many of the houses that owed debt to Casterly Rock had already either started paying that when Kevan's company rocked up or given up a hostage if they couldn't pay. Secondly, Tywin had brutally ended the Tarbecks & the Reynes were about to suffer the same fate (or at absolute best, permanently broken as a rival power to the Lannisters), so there was now no alternative they could flock to. Getting a visit from Kevan's 500 knights & having to accommodate them is one thing, but doing the same as what the Reynes & Tarbecks had just done would be suicide! Particularly now that Tywin directly had a larger force at his command than what went to the Stepstones from the west, backed by many of the other major houses from the northern half of the Westerlands (all that could participate in the revolt with how quickly it progressed & ended). The Red Lion's surviving friends were now isolated & greatly outnumbered, they'd swiftly bend the knee, if they hadn't already actually joined Tywin at Castamere so as not to suffer the same. The houses of the south & east - Crakehall, Serrett, Lydden, Lefford, etc. - whether initially pro-Lannister or pro-Reyne/Tarbeck or neutral, would fall into line also. Indeed, Kevan & his knights may have first turned south/east from the Rock, given the detail of Harys Swyft of Cornfield handing over his daughter & only then Walderan Tarbeck travelling to treat with Tytos, with events escalating & progressing from there. Kevan's company had done what they could in the south & east, with Tywin deciding on & preparing for his course of action against the Reyne & Tarbecks in the north, after Lady Ellyn's antics. Not really. Robb Reyne fought for Daemon I Blackfyre, but we don't know for certain if his family also did or the house was split or just stayed neutral besides. Nonetheless, more likely than not they stayed loyal to the Lannisters & Targaryens during the 3rd BfR, helping to explain the Tywald/Tion-Ellyn match & their fellow participation against the Peake Uprising. They stayed loyal to the Lannisters under Gerold, only becoming what they would be under the comically horrendous Tytos. They followed the Rock in joining the Greens during the Dance & were noticeably close to the Lannisters early in Jaehaerys I's reign, at least. That's true, especially with how delusional Reynard was with his terms to Tywin, still believing he could sweet talk the Reynes out of this whole ordeal. Doesn't mean that Tywin had to go directly for it without delivering his own terms at least, though. As I've already noted, the Reynes were already done for good & of course, the Tarbecks had already been utterly extinguished. Personally, I'd change a few things going back to earlier in the revolt & then moving on to Castamere: 1) Give Walderan & his likewise captive kin the choice of being executed for their treason or to join the Night's Watch. 2) Storm, but not destroy, Tarbeck Hall so that it could be given to one of my brothers (Kevan if Castamere doesn't come to surrender, Tygett if it does). 3) If Ellyn is captured alive, give her the choice of execution or to join the Silent Sisters. 4) Rohanne & Cyrelle are given the choice of joining the Faith or marrying a Lannister (or even execution, if they so wish). One or both could wed Kevan &/or Tygett, if they want them. If the brothers don't, the women can be matched to a cousin like Stafford (assuming they wish to marry instead of becoming a septa). 5) Rohanne's son is kept alive at the Rock as a hostage to his mother &/or aunt's good behaviour. If they step out of line, off to the Wall for him & off to the Silent Sisters (or the block) for them. If he acts out as a child, to the Wall; as an adult, off with his head. If he grows up to be a good Lannister toadie, then perhaps he could be given a suitable wife & small keep in the south of the Westerlands (or perhaps even elsewhere in the realm), or something like that. 6) At Castamere, I'd give my terms to Reynard (pretty much same as above - men of the house for the block or the Watch, women for the Faith, marriage to a Lannister or loyalist, or death if they so wish too) & detail the plan to drown them if the entire family, garrison, & household doesn't come out & surrender within the hour. If they don't, then the flooding begins, as harsh & unfortunate as that would be, having costed you nothing for making the offer. If they do, then you've gained rich Castamere for the loyal & deserving Kevan, maybe with a Reyne bride for him to help seal it, if he so wants. Same with Tygett for Tarbeck Lannister/Golden (Lion) Hall. I can understand why Tywin destroyed both seats, but it really was unnecessary overkill & a wasted opportunity (along with the unconditional killing of the women & servants) to further House Lannister's supremacy of the West in requisitioning them from traitors to his most Lannister brother/s. It's not like this completely alien to Tywin either: he presumably had no problems with Tyrek being wed to infant Ermesande Hayford to secure that inheritance, then later gives Darry & Amerei Frey to Lancel & Riverrun to Genna's line - rather than any of Stevron's lesser descendants, or Walder's other (grand)sons (say Lothar who actually organised the Red Wedding). And of course, most of us readers (myself included), aren't vicious (& many other negative traits) like Tywin & so would demonstrate a greater degree of flexibility of how we would've handled this rebellion instead.
  8. We don't know. One or both of may have died as a child, or married & had children (back into the Blackwoods or rival Brackens are two interesting possibilities, among others), or married but had no children, or joined the Faith (as still Prince Aegon's earlier daughters by Megette had been sent to by their royal grandfather), or lived in exile in Essos (say wed to Blackfyre supporter/s who they followed/& took any kids there - it'd be intriguing if they ended up aligned with Bittersteel & the Blackfyres rather than their full brother & the Targaryens), or mayhaps even been part of the Raven's Teeth. I imagine that Black Aly, Billy Burley, & Red Robb Rivers - with their weirwood arrows, incredible archery skill, & contingents of bowmen - were inspirations for Brynden to use, develop, & form the same. Perhaps Mya &/or Gwenys were similar to both Alysanne & Bloodraven, becoming part of the company's leadership.
  9. I almost always only lurk & read, but sometimes disagree with at least some of what you'll say in a comment (just some different opinions, really). However, I agree with virtually everything you said in this wider one & you presented it well. One thing with this sentence, though: Great Wyk is the largest (increasing the difficulty of the invasion & assaults), likely the most mountainous (i.e. toughest terrain), has perhaps the highest population (or only second to Harlaw), has maybe the strongest vassal to Pyke (or again, only second to the Harlaws), & is just about furtherest of the main islands from the mainland. So, I think it's no coincidence that Robert picked Stannis to take Great Wyk & not Ned, or Barristan, or even Tywin, or whoever else had a command to take an island/subdue a castle (actually, if the Reach had any further involvement beyond the Redwyne fleet, I'd love to know if Randyll was there & if so what level of command he had - perhaps even Orkmont, Saltcliffe, or Blacktyde). Also, it's likely just due to the limited info we have on Greyjoy's Rebellion, but I find it interesting that we don't know who subdued Harlaw & thus, for certain if it was even invaded. However unlikely, the Reader may have sued for peace before such took place. After all, he advised Balon not to follow through with his folly to begin the war, lost two sons off Fair Isle, & is not exactly huge on ironborn supremacy & expansionism, unlike many of his peers.
  10. The wording in F&B, though somewhat ambiguous, certainly allows for the possibility of the Stauntons & Darklyns to be vassals of Dragonstone at the time of the Dance: But yes, I very much doubt that Rosby & Stokeworth were Dragonstone vassals. However, it's interesting that they were among the Blacks at court when Viserys I died. A list that includes the Lords Butterwell, Hayford, Merryweather, Harte, Buckler, & Caswell, along with Lady Fell. Some of those have seats very close to KL, but others less so. Therefore, who just so happened to be in the capital for whatever reason at that time & who actually had a permanent court position? IIRC, didn't F&B gives us (even) more of a pereception that some on the Small Council weren't necessarily Green or Black, or may have even leaned to the latter, but it was the Hightower insistence & Cole's arrest/assault/murder of Beesbury that turned them Green? If some of these other lords/lady had lesser posts at court, it really paints a picture that as much as Alicent had done as much in her power to secure the transition of power for Aegon the Elder, either Otto really dropped the ball by not appointing more Greens among the court or Viserys (or more likely, those such as Beesbury) ensured the Blacks still had some presence. Yeah, these guys could/would therefore wield a great deal of power. Perhaps not quite so much as Nestor Royce whilst Jon Arryn was Hand (& not visiting the Vale on occasion), but rather high in terms on the Westerosi feudal scale. Something I've noticed about castellans though, is that they seem to rarely have their own independent base of power that they could potentially use to challenge their masters & attempt to take over the seat they're serving/holding. Even fewer are a lord or heir to another seat. More often than not, in the grand scheme of things, they're nobody household knights. One could perhaps expect that to be different for a seat such as Dragonstone (when the prince/princess/lord is absent or not currently acclaimed) & yet the known castellans are Robert Quince, Axell Florent, & Rolland Storm. Not exactly men of the highest prestige & standing. All agreed for basically all of the rest of that comment of yours.
  11. It need not be exactly a year after Alyn's disappearance that Elaena was wed to Plumm. It would probably take weeks (after first setting sail, anyway) for the court to learn of what happened to the fleet. The king & princess then discuss it (one way or another) & he gives her about a year to marry someone of his choice, should Oakenfist not return. Even if Aegon arranged the match to Ossifer in that time (not guaranteed, particularly considering the Unworthy's lifestyle & way of ruling), unless the groom was already in capital, it would take weeks for him to come to KL, or for the court to get to the Westerlands. Furthermore, I tend to believe the Dornish invasion didn't kick off until towards the end of 174. Aegon's first year of rule at least would have been taken up by him coming into the role with his own appointments, pleasures, births, change of mistresses, probable progresses, tourneys/feasts, quite likely the Morgil Hastwyck affair (indeed, the king's conquest of Dorne aspirations may have resulted from the failure of this in addition to, probably, Daeron & Aemon's roles in forcing him to send Barba & her father back to Stone Hedge), etc. Also, the "dragons" & fleet would take (many) months to prepare, perhaps even a year or more. Agreed that Oakenfist would be more likely to not support the king's folly than do, why I suggested in my previous comment that he may have been essentially bribed to do so. Imo, it's weird that Alyn & Elaena did not wed (if Baela died before her husband, which I lean to) & so, perhaps Aegon IV had yet to give his permission & would only do so if Lord Velaryon add his ships to the royal fleet & likely serve as the admiral. After all, he would be the natural choice - especially with his previous victories against the Dornish for Daeron I - & Driftmark's vessels would be handy/necessary for the effort. I lean towards Alyn remaining Master of Ships under Aegon IV, if simply for the commencement/continuation of his relationship with Elaena: otherwise, if he wasn't married to Baela any more, then there's more chance for him to have spirited her away to Driftmark & wed her there away from the king's (immediate) reach. That said, he surely spent some amount of time on Driftmark during the Unworthy's reign (besides preparing for the Dorne invasion, if he was involved). Or at least, out of the capital. After all, the man loved the sea & returned to it at the end of the Regency having felt he'd been away for too long. I've mused before perhaps it's these couple of years when Oakenfist had his last great voyage, perhaps a final encounter with Racallio. Mayhaps even sent to the Stepstones (if Ryndoon returned to power there) or the Basilisk Isles (I would die happy if George did this!) by Viserys (such would be handy way to separate Alyn from Elaena for a time if he disapproved of that affair &/or if Baela was still alive) to deal with him. Anyway, it's certainly a possibility Oakenfist was dismissed by Aegon IV, especially if he was close to Viserys (very likely given their history being good-brothers), Aemon (again, rather probable considering family connections, both veterans of Dorne, & sheer amount of time both at court), &/or Daeron (he would now be his vassal). And yes, Alyn may not have been involved in the Dornish folly at all & only disappeared afterwards. Perhaps even as an effort to save any survivors if they were washed up on the Stepstones or something. While a son (or some other relation) of Oakenfist being Aegon IV's (first) MoS is certainly possible (& would be very interestingly, particularly if they knew each other from the Conquest of Dorne - Velaryon Jr could have even been a squire to the then prince), I'd lean towards the king rather choosing some non-Velaryon sycophant. Great point however that the Unworthy would not be keen on his (distant) cousin taking a second Targaryen wife! Most definitely that's an (additional) dynastic threat, not to mention Aegon's probable jealousy in such a scenario. It could also play into my theory that the king's possible permission for the relationship becoming a marriage would only occur if the admiral delivered him his own Conquest of Dorne.
  12. I can't remember if I have suggested such on these forums, although I have previously on r/asoiaf. This is very likely, imo. Aegon IV's failed invasion of Dorne in 174 AC included a (royal) fleet that was scattered & destroyed in a storm, whilst Alyn disappeared at sea around the same time. That's quite a coincidence if not one & the same. Oakenfist was probably still Master of Ships at this time & would be the natural choice to lead such a fleet. Perhaps related, if Baela had already passed away, I find it strange/interesting that Alyn & Elaena did not marry. After all, we're told the princess hoped to wed the admiral, which is couldn't occur if Baela were still alive (unless they had legally divorced somehow, but that's unlikely at best) & doesn't exactly match with what we know about Elaena if she were say hoping for her aunt to hurry up & die, so she could marry the widower. Therefore, I believe Baela either died prior to, or during, the affair. So, I wonder if Aegon IV (& maybe Viserys II before him) had yet to give his permission for this union to be officialised, say conditional on Oakenfist's (successful) participation in his Conquest of Dorne. After all the deaths from the Young Dragon's folly, Baelor's peace & Viserys' apparent (at least nominal) support of such, & some 15 years, I lean towards Lord Velaryon not being supportive of another (doomed to fail) invasion of Dorne. Mayhaps the Unworthy could use Alyn & Elaena's desire to wed to secure the support of Driftmark's fleet.
  13. Correct me if I'm wrong, but there doesn't seem to a page about the ironborn civil war (& eventual Targaryen invasion) following the Burning of Harrenhal. Nor the one after the Red Kraken's death (& subsequent Lannister invasion). It would be helpful to have these created to be able to refer to, thanks.
  14. Correct me if I'm wrong, but there doesn't seem to a page about the ironborn civil war (& eventual Targaryen invasion) following the Burning of Harrenhal. Nor the one after the Red Kraken's death (& subsequent Lannister invasion). It would be helpful to have these created to be able to refer to, thanks.
  15. It seems to stem from the Conquest with Driftmark & Claw Isle as Aegon's direct vassals, with Stonedance & Sharp Point as (lesser) allies. They, among others, presumably always were thereafter bannermen to the Prince(ss) of Dragonstone - or at least, after Jaehaerys I formalised the title & position with Aemon. Interestingly enough, this implies that (other) mainland lords such as the Darklyns & Stauntons once were sworn to Dragonstone, but this was discontinued at some stage (most likely with the Dance or its aftermath). Anyway, the lands & incomes of Dragonstone (mainly by way of its vassals), would be the direct, hard power base for Rhaenyra (well, after dragons), future Daeron II, Rhaegar, & Stannis against their kingly rivals. Whilst I disagree with the level of punishment (more retribution), Rhaenyra was acting with the authority as ruler of Dragonstone & overlord of Vaemond (by way of his lordly uncle) when she had Daemon execute him. Hence, his kin going over her head & appealing directly to the king in a (vain) attempt for their own justice from her judgement.
  16. Why does the Battle at the Mander page (& so the Shield Islands one) state that the ironborn won it? At absolute best, it was a draw for them.
  17. I meant is it good policy/necessary to screenshot the author's permission? Say, for as you note, quoting such (with evidence).
  18. Aren't they just! Although I downloaded the app some time ago, I haven't got round to using it yet. How does that go anyway? Get permission from the artist, screenshot that, & all good to upload? Burning bridges?
  19. Sir Heartsalot is great, but this should be on the Battle Above the God's Eye page.
  20. @The Grey Wolf How do you think the Golden Company could raise such numbers so early in its existence with afawk, higher casualties & more frequent losses than in recent times, though? Primarily from exiles? Aerion & Brynden's urges need not have been public during say court, could easily have been behind closed doors with perhaps the Grand Maester of the time providing us with the account. Aegor's trial may have only followed after this discussion. What do you think happened to Haegon then?
  21. @Lord Varys The 3rd is certainly a possibility, but makes far less sense than the 4th, imo. For Bittersteel to seek alliance with the ironborn so soon after Dagon's reaving (which was only eventually defeated with royal intervention, possibly as late as 218 after Maekar became Prince of Dragonstone after Aelor's death) ... he doesn't seem to have been desperate enough. The Blackfyres would lose too much support from the Reach & Westerlands, the former definitely their main local support base & the latter arguably second-only, for it to be worth it. Not to mention, the Ironborn strength would be not be high so soon after Dagon. And although it sounds like he prematurely ended his rule Brandon the Shipwright-esque, TWoIaF chronology seems to have Alton at the least sitting the Seastone Chair between Dagon & Torwyn. If there were naval battles in the 3rd & Torwyn was part of that Rebellion, then Aegor probably would've had to have been supported by the Redwynes (or some Reach contingent most likely led by them) for their to have actually been battles. The Velaryons, Lannisters, & Arryns all-but-confirmed stayed loyal to the Targaryens, whilst Kiera of Tyrosh was most like still kept at court by the Crown to ensure Tyrosh wouldn't fully support (if at all) the Golden company with a fleet. And that's if she wasn't already married to Daeron. Despite sacking Qohor, that Bittersteel & his fellows had to sell their swords in the first place, means that money wasn't flowing into the Blackfyre invasion fund from Westerosi or Essosi supporters. Qohor probably only provided the capital to be able to launch the invasion, but not strengthen it with other hirelings, in the first place. Why don't you think it was Aerion who murdered Haegon? His "actions" are contrasted to the heroics of his father & youngest brother, & along with Brynden (the only other prime suspect) he called for Aegor's execution. Not to mention, it does add fittingly to his Monstrous moniker. And if a member of the royal family did such a heinous deed to an unarmed prisoner, it helps to explain Aerys' leniency in sending Bittersteel to the Wall (the very highest sort of traitor - just look at his eacape on the way) & very likely also to the likes of the Yronwoods, etc who fought for the Black Dragon again. ~10000 men as the strength of the Golden Company during the 4th (or the 3rd) is perhaps a little high, especially as they may not have suffered a serious defeat in the 40 years now since the Wot9pK & seemed to have been rather cruisey in recent years besides under Homeless Harry. Whereas it was only 17 years between the 3rd & the 4th, when the Company was likely still growing & diversifying their ranks. Isn't Tion the only Westerman, or indeed non-Crownlander, we know for certain who took part on the royalist side at Wendwater? Particularly given the relationship between the Crown & the Rock at the time, he was more likely just at court when the war was declared than having been home & bringing a Westerlands force.
  22. @The Grey Wolf In the History of Westeros episode on either Bittersteel or the Golden Company, either Aziz or Steven Attewell (yeah, I need to go back & listen to them again) speculated that the Peake Uprising may have been a Blackfyre plot to kill Maekar, to pave the way for a less challenging invasion sometime afterwards. I've long thought that the Peake Uprising was not just a rebellion from Starpike, but actually a forceful land-grab of Dunstonbury by the Peakes obviously for themselves, but also to secure a landing point for an incoming fleet carrying the Golden Company. (Near the mouth of the Mander, with the intention of sweeping upriver & trying to gain support among the Reachmen as Daemon I had at the start of the 1st - likely with eyes on taking Highgarden, similar to Aegon with Storm's End). Except Bloodraven got wind of it so Maekar was able to put it down quickly - he did have Reynes with him after all, who weren't necessarily at court during winter, unlike Egg's squire Tywald Lannister who would've been. The Targaryens dealt with the Peakes so swiftly that Blackfyre scout ships in say Oldtown learned of the outcome of the Storming of Starpike & Bloodraven calling the Great Council, returning the news to the main fleet before it could even pass through the Redwyne Straits. Without a secure landing point & the gamechanger of Maekar's death & the GC, Bittersteel decided to turn around to put forth Daemon III's claim with the power of the Golden Company behind their back. However, Bloodraven lured Aenys to KL well before his relatives could get back to Tyrosh to resupply, with them learning of his death (along with perhaps Egg's ascension) before they could make it to say Blackwater Bay. So, the Golden Company returned back to Essos to try again & I'm guessing when Bittersteel decides to seek an alliance with the Seastone Chair. That he did at some stage, makes me think that the Velaryons stayed loyal to the Targaryens all throughout the Blackfyre era, especially as Bloodraven was holding back the royal fleet during Aerys' reign too. The Aziz/Steven is more likely, at the very least because of it's comparative simplicity. Although I'm not sure how the Peakes thought they could get away with it without direct Blackfyre support. The timeline isn't especially helpful, particularly with at least some lords of the realm travelling all the way to KL for the GC, although perhaps the Northerners may have been able to send their votes in via raven - it was winter, the Starks were related to Egg through marriage, & Edwyle may not have been +16 yet. And the Golden Company could have easily been delayed with logistics, storms, pirates, etc. Also I think "a warning to any who might still have Blackfyre sympathies" is better explained if there was actually the possibility of Daemon presenting his claim in person, or at least represented by say Bittersteel or another relative, with the Golden Company looming. For the moment, I lean towards my headcanon along with the History of Westeros proposal as part of it (or at the very least, perhaps attempting to hammer & anvil Maekar themselves - Bittersteel & his men - which also would've produced the chance of taking Egg hostage). Anyway, I tend towards the Battle of Wendwater Bridge being the only one between the royal forces led by Egg & the Golden Company, but there was a number of other localised battles across the realm: Yronwoods vs Marcher lords &/or other Dornish (as it seemingly happened in the 1st & 3rd too), likely the Brackens vs the Brackens, possibly something in the Reach (especially if including Hightower vassals &/or some continued fallout from the Peake Uprising) &/or the Three Sisters (the Sunderlands dragged them into two of them, but it was only themselves that were at the 2nd), etc. Yes, the royal losses of <100 men is hard to swallow (though less so than what we're told about the Field of Fire), however this is why I think Torwyn actively fought against Bittersteel, perhaps with his longships sweeping upriver to catch them as they were crossing (along with the Targaryens attacking at the same time). The Ironborn may have suffered more losses than the Crownlanders &/or the details may not be necessarily accurate as towards the royal casualties. We've seen with the Vale mountain clans in ACoK just how well raiders can dispatch scouts in the Kingswood, so the Golden Company could've easily been in the dark essentially. Not to mention, there was the Stormlander ambush of the far larger Targaryen army that killed more than 1000 of Orys' men & he had the scouting advantages of Rhaenys on Meraxes on his side (although I'd guess she was perhaps grounded or watching their rear instead at the time).
  23. In line with Lord Varys, I'd guess that the Golden Company landed at the base of Massey's Hook, instead of anywhere near Stondance. That said, I think Bittersteel was quite desperate at this stage: The Blackfyres were soundly beaten in the Third Rebellion, if perhaps only towards the end. With Haegon's murder (very likely) at the hands of Aerion, Aerys probably showed leniency to Blackfyre supporters (helps to explain how the Yronwoods are still so powerful, plus the likes of the Reynes & the Peakes decades later if they fought for the Black Dragon again), as he did with Bittersteel. If so, the Blackfyre loyalists would have retained a measure of power they could swear to the Black Dragon in a future campaign, but which wouldn't be for another 17 years - Bittersteel had to regroup, rebuild, wait for Daemon to come of age, & was most like seeing out Maekar's reign (especially if the Peake Uprising was a Blackfyre plot). Support is going to wane over that much time, especially after three defeats, even among some Blackfyre diehards - Bittersteel wasn't able to take proper advantage of anti-Targaryen sentiment (particularly Haegon's murder), especially once Aerys died & Maekar ascended. Meanwhile, those who were more only sympathetic to the Blackfyre cause, were only punished lightly (if they actually fought for the Black Dragon at all). That would embolden some to fight against the Targaryens again if it came out to, but I'd wager it turned more towards them. Despite likely being a better claimant & potential king than his nephew, Aenys was usurping the Blackfyre succession & certainly wouldn't have had the support of Bittersteel & Daemon at the very least. Even with another Blackfyre murdered by a "Targaryen", this time Aenys by Bloodraven, Bittersteel wouldn't have been able to utilise it as much he could've with Haegon's death. Particularly once singularly suitable Egg was crowned & swiftly punished Brynden for his crime with the appropriate sentence. The Golden Company would've already been seen far more as dangerous sellsword invaders (a fair number of them foreigners) than gloriously & justly returned Westerosi heroes. Bittersteel was ever more bitter & kept losing. Daemon was born & raised in Tyrosh/Essos, essentially a foreigner. That's all going to blunt local support for the Blackfyre cause. It's all-but-confirmed imo that this is when Torwyn Greyjoy betrayed Bittersteel: Frankly, any alliance with the Ironborn as a primary ally is desperate - Robb more likely than not wouldn't have sent Theon to his father had Lysa supported him, the Targaryen forces during the Wot9pK were greatly aided by Quellon & his 100 longships, etc. The 1st BfR was virtually only a land war & Daemon was basically winning until the end, Bittersteel wasn't involved in the 2nd, & although also unsuccessful; faired far better in the 3rd than 4th. The Golden Company wouldn't have had the naval strength, most likely only hired ships & crews no less, to take on the combined power of King's Landing, Driftmark, & Dragonstone - perhaps not even any one of them. However, the Ironborn could, perhaps especially if the intention was for them to send a reaving feint to say the Bay of Crabs to lure out the ships of Dragonstone & Driftmark, whilst the main fleet entered Blackwater Bay (whether by sea or portaging their longships from the east) to eventually ferry the Golden Company across the Bay & fight with them. Bittersteel would know their local support had waned since the 3rd & was a shadow of what it was during the 1st - their best chance was a quick & successful strike on King's Landing itself before the Targaryen loyalists could rally to the defense Egg & his royal family. This helps to explain the Massey's Hook landing instead of say at the Yronwood river (or Wyl) where they had strong & certain support, or at the Mander to attempt a 1st-esque rally of the Reach. And an ironborn betrayal certainly helps to explain how the GC were only able to make it to the Wendwater to meet Egg & his army - Torwyn likely tipped him off & may have even fought with him given how amazingly few men that the royal forces lost. If that last is the case, it could have been an inspiration for Quellon to continue military cooperation with the Iron Throne during his own time on the Seastone Chair. As much as he was a reformer with the New Way; Quellon was a warrior & knew the benefits the Old Way could provide if utilised wisely, instead of doing away with it completely, unlike Harmund III. Quellon's men still would've paid the Iron Price to at least some degree against their dead foes, as would Torwyn's. Indeed, the chronology in TWoIaF suggests that the progressive Loron (possibly once a hostage of the Mallisters after Dagon was defeated) was most likely the only other Lord Greyjoy between Torwyn & Quellon, particularly as Dagon was Quellon's grandfather - it's not unlikely at all that Torwyn was even Quellon's father.
  24. Just wondering. What's the source for the "500 other survivors of Robb's army" on the March on Winterfell page? Is it an estimation of Karstarks (only?) among Roose's host at Moat Cailin in Reek II of Dance?
  25. @Rhaenys_Targaryen I understand all that, I'm including the info from the extended chapter (vassals augmenting the Lannister force with their own levies before the camp battle with the Reynes) & frankly over TWoIaF published if need be. It's not as biased (I know different section, but it's still Pycelle & Yandel), it fills in missing details (because of course Tywin would be so nice to Rohanne & Cerelle), & even with Tywin's rapid momentum campaign; the four Houses mentioned in TWoIaF wouldn't be the only vassals to respond to Tywin's call. The Westerlings would've been declining before this (indeed, some of the lands & mines they've sold are more likely than not to have been to the Reynes) & were never a top-tier military power (Lannister, Reyne, Crakehall, etc) in the Westerlands anyway. The Stackspears are even more forgettable, not only in the same department. And the Plumms & Baneforts are roughly middle of the pack. There's just no way they are bringing ~7000 men between them, to boost Tywin's then ~6000 to ~13000. Particularly not in 261 & on such a short time-frame. Even in 298 (after almost a decade of summer & peace) with all the extra weeks to gather their men, that would really be a push, if not just outright wrong. Alone, TWoIaF could possibly make ~6500 original & ~13000 final work, but no way with the extended chapter too. Not to mention everything else I addressed with logistics & that the text points far more to ~3000 combined than ~3000 each. It fits far better for it to be ~3500 initial, boosted to ~6000 by the time of the camp battle with levies from 14 Houses (12 of them unnamed lesser lords - Houses that probably can't even martial 500 men each in the very best of conditions, most like only clocking in ~200 or something on average), & finishing at ~7000 at Castamere. Tywin had just about the opposite & ideal circumstances in AGoT in contrast (indeed, his hiring of foreign sellsword companies, likely means he was planning to some degree even before Cat took Tyrion) & yet the Lannisters only field what, 35-40k in invasion forces. The Reyne-Tarbeck revolt only drew active strength from ~1/4 of the Westerlands, with some ~2750 men from the same quadrant in opposition. Casterly Rock & Lannisport certainly help a great deal, but ~13000 men at that time & in that time, just doesn't work. Multiply that by three (perhaps sufficient for factoring in Casterly Rock) & you have the host in ASoIaF - ~39000 men in less than a 1/4 (if not 1/6, perhaps even 1/8) of the time. ~7000 expanding to ~21000 instead, New Ghis fielding a ~36000 men invasion force is far more ridiculous than even the Lannister numbers! What mega fleet abandoned the city for weeks to deliver ~12000 men north of the river? If the Yunkai-led alliance had these numbers from New Ghis, the latter would be in charge, & a storming of Meereen would even be a genuine possibility. ~36000 is more than what the North or Stormlands can marshal & field, from lands possibly as large as half of that of Skagos, because Ghiscar is rekt. That makes sense.
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