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divica

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  1. Come on. A no deal brexit is crazy people talk. You are willing to bankrupt your country and risk the way of life of millions of people for brexit? And not forget that a no deal brexit will have a huge impact on the value of british pound so you are really playing with fire. And then you are talking about fast negotiations but the brexit negotiation has lasted years... and you talk as if people understood the consequences that brexit may have and were ok with it. You can t just assume that who voted for brexit wants brexit no matter the price and consequences. It is very different to vote on a no deal brexit or a decent brexit. Having a referendum to confirm that people really want the brexit knowing exactly the risks and what it will cost them seems more a question of good sense than anything else taking into account the importance of the decision
  2. I don t get that. The Uk are a great country. You don t need the brexit, you want it. If it is that bad why hide it and be responsable for whatever may happen? It is political suicide... in adition, with a good deal besides paying boatloads of money to the UE what would change negatively for the UK
  3. If I may ask. Those assessments shouldn t depend on how the brexit is done? If uk gets a good deal, bad deal or no deal with the UE it would have different impacts no?
  4. So you think brexit can happen without an agreement? Better yet. How can people vote for brexit when they don t know the conditions under which brexit may happen? You have no idea if the voters would want to leave the UE without an agreement or if they would agree with paying the UE the money... it seems really idiotic to ask people if they want to leave the UE without telling them the cost and afterwards go along with the decision without asking them if they agree to pay the price... And you actually think brexit should happen if there isn t an agreement or if the agreement is very bad for the uk because years ago people voted exit the UE? Ps I am not from the uk, but I just don t get how someone can be for or against the brexit if they don t know how brexit may happen... depending on the agreement it may be either the end of the uk (no agreement) or something very expensive where the uk become independent but loose their voice in the UE
  5. we actually have clansmen talking about why they are marching with stannis. It is about being winter and they prefer to die kiling boltons and saving ned's little girl than dying of hunger in their homes. And in the same passage they say how much they dislike the southerns and their fire god. So no kneeling to stannis... Whatever stannis is planning if he wants the clans to follow him after taking care of the boltons he needs to win them over. And he knows that! He needs a warden that can unify the north behind him. The problem is that stannis doesn t have that person at the moment. Therefore his hold of the north is VERY fragile! whatever he is planning he has no garantee that the clansmen will remain with him! And he knows that. First, stannis doesn t compromise! That is his problem. Next, stannis can t do any of the things you said. He has around 700 Southern soldiers and is going to loose a lot of soldiers due to the weather and up coming battle. Whatever he accomplishes will be done by northerners! And the north cares so much about the Wall that there was a wildling massive attack and no lord led his army there to help or check the situation so far. Stannis is a Southern, that lets his soldiers burn people alive, that burns weirwoods, that led a disastrous march, that will punish the lords that sided with the boltons even if they had no other choice, that can t man the Wall because doesn t have men, that can t defeat the boltons without help from thousands of northerns, that can t put a stark in winterfell because he doesn t have one…. basically he has no power. The only thing he has to offer is his military experience. The person that can do all the things you said is wyman manderley. He has the man, sent a guy to retrieve rickon and has a plan against the boltons. Why would he give all this to stannis when stannis has nothing to offer? Wyman made it public that he killed davos to convince the freys he was on their side. And I think stannis talks about manderley killing davos… So even manderley helps stannis when things are done he will demand wyman's head for killing davos because STANNIS DOESN T COMPROMISE! Bottom line, with the disastrous march stannis has very little power left. And even if he conquers winterfell he will have so few southerners that the northern lords have no reason to follow him.... He will become viserys v 2.0 the new beggar king! He needs to get back to the Wall and wait fot his sellswords before he can negotiate anything with the northern lords. If he starts demanding their loyalty then he is going to be sent away… On the other hand he can try to unify the north to defend the Wall against the others. This might actually work! However when he starts talking about how he is AA and the lord of light chosen one to defeat the others he will start to sound eitheir crazy or a liar...
  6. I was of the same opinion until I thought of something. We actually know that the book plot will be very diferent from the tv show because grrm said that there will be another dance with dragons. Assuming that D&D told grrm that they didn t want to do it and that their season 6 will be very diferent from his book how should the book publishers and tv producers react? Would it be good to have winds released and make it clear that the show and books are very diferent or would the tv producers and book publisher get to an agreement to delay the book until it doesn t hurt the show?
  7. He doesn t really have the clans. The clans agreed to kill the boltons and save ned's girl. Do you think they will stick around stannis afterwads? The snippets we have seen from the army the northerns don t like stannis and his fire god. He has done nothing to win them over and with farya saved, the deadly march and the religious problems we don t even know if they will stay with stannis until winterfell or the freys. So far stannis camp seems like a place to die slowly and they can do it at home or at the Wall (it is strange that the clan leaders are at the wedding in castle black). Can you see the problems with naming a stark WotN? it would be going back on the wishes of the northern lords that want to be independent. If stannis names rickon WotN with manderley being his regent/caretaker it makes manderley look like he is selling the north to stannis for power… while some northern houses might ally themselves with maderley there would be a lot of other houses that would want their Independence from the IT and say that manderley is using a 5 year old kid to gain power. Simillar to what roose did with farya… And all this doesn t take into account that stannis is miles away from allying with manderley because he thinks he killed davos. Until davos returns and talks with stannis there is no away that an aliance can happen. If we assume that davos won t appear near winterfel in the next week or so then stannis will have to name someone else WotN. Can you imagine how well that will be accepted? Or how the houses allied with manderley will accept stannis when he wants to kill mandeley? The only way to have an unified north is with a stark KitN. IT might be jon or rickon depending on the timing and circunstances. But I can t see how stannis has the north when he doesn t even have a warden or aliances besides getting rid of the boltons...
  8. Do you guys really think that stannis will have the north behind him, that the south will send na army north during winter (look at what happened to stannis) and that stannis will care about defending from the south when he has to man up the Wall as soon as possible? Lets face it. All scenarios are pratically impossible. a) nobody likes stannis, he has no claim to the north and northerns will want to follow a stark. b) if a Southern army does march south they just have to let it pass and die of starvation and hunger while they march and siege some castle...
  9. First. As long as the will legitimizes jon (which is the least it has to do) isn t he automatically robb's heir? Because he is his oficial older brother! Even if bran and rickon are alive if jon is legitimized then he is robb's heir. And wether people like it or not I can t see loyal northerns going against the word of their king. The real problem is the night watch's vow, but if several northern lords (the ones present at the will and who else they might have told by now) accepted the will then the northerns might not have such a big problem with jon breaking his vows. Now, people might argue that robb thought that his siblings were dead (except sansa) when he made the will. But does it matter? As long as it legitimizes jon will people argue that the will is null because it was made under false pretenses? do people think like that is asoiaf? Can it be used to nullify an oficial document? The only real argument is that if manderley crowns rickon king then jon won t fight him for it. It basically seems like there are 2 northern conspiracies. One that knows about the will and other that doesn t know and both are in a race to get rid of the boltons. In either case which seems very likely is that they don t care for stannis. And after the disastrous march where we starting seeing the conflicts between the northerns and southerns it is even more unlikely that they will recognise stannis as their king when they have 2 better candidates than a Southern that burns weirwood trees and people, doesn t believe in their gods, wants their help to march south and conquer the IT, has no holdings and a very small army, his daughter and heir is marred with greyscale, isn t likeable…. At this point stannis has very few things in his favour.
  10. Stannis has a huge problem. His loyal southerners have had so many casualities that by the time he arrives at winterfell he will become irrelevant (assuming that for the next months he won t have sellswords from essos). And one of the things we are told (by lots of people in diferent instances) and shown during the march is that nobody likes stannis. And the northerners don t seem to be na exception. So when manderly arrives promising the return of rickon and some strategy to retake winterfell which northern would follow stannis? Who would want to fight for stannis when there is a stark coming supported by some major northern houses? Wether it is sooner or later stannis will have to return to the Wall and wait for his sellswords to arrive. I think the frey battle will be the means to give horses and food to stannis so that he can take his southerners back to the Wall. It is what makes more sense for him and the best way to progresso his story. It would even be a great epilogue if we have his pov while he dies defending the Wall from the others...
  11. divica

    The Great Purple Wedding Irony: Tyrion Sabotaged His Own Trial

    Even if summer was outside we have seen several instances where the direwolves can sense their wargs are in danger and attack without anyone telling them to do it. It isn t too outside of the box to assume that all direwolves have these abilities and that mance has seen it beyond the Wall. So it is more of a matter of where summer will attack the catspaw than if he will attack the catspaw. And I will read your theory later, but when people start looking into BR usualy he could be blamed for everything. So I tend to not like BR conspiracy theories...
  12. divica

    The Great Purple Wedding Irony: Tyrion Sabotaged His Own Trial

    actually, anybody that knows about wargs could predict that summer would eventually attack the catspaw. Either before, during or after he attacked bran summer would attack and probably kill the catspaw. Mance is almost garanteed to have seen other direwolves north of the Wall and how they behave when their warg is in danger. There were 100k wildlings, some of them must have had direwolves...
  13. divica

    The Great Purple Wedding Irony: Tyrion Sabotaged His Own Trial

    Exactly! If he wanted people to think that maybe LF is lying he wouldn t have LF be so clear in his speach. So he can t be raising doubts about what is written during his interviews. For now he wants us to believe in what LF says so he won t give the game away in interviews…
  14. divica

    The Great Purple Wedding Irony: Tyrion Sabotaged His Own Trial

    I don t remember the counter arguments, but the most logical and interesting theory that I have heard about the catspaw is that it was mance who send it. He was there, he needed to lure the northern army away from the north (he knows that the wildlings have always been defeated by a the northern army), he could have heard robert talking about a cripple should be killed, he could have stollen the dagger to incriminate robert (telling the catspaw to leave the dagger inside bran)… It is pretty logical and simple...
  15. divica

    The Great Purple Wedding Irony: Tyrion Sabotaged His Own Trial

    However sansa has strong connections to 3 kingdoms! She has potential to be super useful. Someone like olena wouldn t just let her go… Hell, if robin and edmure die (which isn t all that unlikely) with the right backing sansa can have claims to the 3 kingdoms...
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