Springwatch

Anyone close to the Targ main line is a top candidate to die - Targs and secret Targs - because it's hard to end the story with magical abominations who can be super charismatic, ambitious, powerful, desirable and/or mad, however the dice rolls. And that's without dragons....

So in the firing line: Dany, Jon, Aegon, Cersei, Jaime, Myrcella, Tommen, Tyrion. 

Baratheon bastards probably ok - too dilute.

On 3/9/2024 at 5:01 PM, House Cambodia said:

Oh, thanks for that - it's saved me wasted hours. Pity it's been debunked though.

Thanks for the link anyway; I like codes (and from the quote above, sounds like George does too!). I wanted to see how the theory developed, but we seem to start in the middle when the idea has got really overdeveloped; and suffers from the problem of all code theories for these books - danger, violence and plotting happen all the time, so anything could predict them.

On 3/10/2024 at 1:34 AM, James Fenimore Cooper XXII said:

Eye color is indicative of lineage and affinity.  The Weirwoods have red sap, red leaves, and when carved, red eyes.  The purest form of a Northern creature, Ghost, has red eyes.  Genetic material from the Bloodstone line spread in the North through genetic experiments. 

Mel has red eyes too - do you want to develop further on this?

On 3/10/2024 at 10:37 AM, StarkTullies said:

Also, maybe you should think twice before using ancestral human sacrifices as proof that their modern day descendants are evil, lest you will be trashing your own favorite character.  Dany performed human sacrifices: see below.  If Dany is Azor Azai, then she knew exactly what she was doing to bring the dragons to life.  Or if her triple-sacrifice had nothing to do with the dragon births, then she didn't know what she is doing and she's not Azor Ahai.  You can't have it both ways.

Dany's thoughts: (The dragons) had been born from her faith and her need, given life by the deaths of her husband and unborn son and the maegi Mirri Maz Duur.

Triple-sacrifice is wrong; the quote doesn't say she sacrificed them and that's not what we saw happen. It's doubtful that even MIrri could be called a sacrifice because Dany's only religious idea at the time is Drogo's ascent to the afterlife, which doesn't even need a sacrifice. More likely Mirri's death was extreme punishment in revenge for her causing the deaths of Drogo and Rhaego. Which she did.

If George failed at all, it's a failure to understand how difficult decryption is - his end of the process is (relatively) simple; he follows his own formula and maybe he worries it may be too obvious, too boring, so he has his three layer system of hinting, and he likes things having multiple levels of meaning (e.g. Needle, and many more), and real-world references and homages, and I'm pretty convinced there's a lot of word play too. But the reader trying to reverse-engineer George's process has a massive problem because there are just so many elements to herd into place, and the more hints and illustrations George adds, the more possibilities and combinations there are.

Oh yes, and if everything he writes depends on what he wrote already, his challenge is increasing exponentially too. So at least we're all in it together.

There was an idea of Tyrion being in love with Arya too (iirc), but my instinct is that transferred to Shae, who might be a kind of Arya shadow, who knows? Maybe JonArya could go the same way.

Anyway, I'm fine with JonArya being discussed, even in favour because I'm expecting a kind of Aegon-and-his-sisters replay - not sexual, but the scenario alone might be enough to justify a bit of foreshadowing. Backshadowing, whatever.

On 3/7/2024 at 10:19 AM, kissdbyfire said:

You mean the outline where Martin says he was making shit up b/c the publisher or whoever was demanding one? 

He could be talking shit to you too. Isn't the fandom even more demanding than a publisher?

On 3/7/2024 at 10:19 AM, kissdbyfire said:

There’s nothing to Jon and Arya as a romantic pairing, despite the weird shipping of some readers who are into incest, I guess?

Too strong!! And it really bugs me when people suddenly conflate Martin's fantasy world (lots of incest, cousin marriages too) with the real world and real people's values. 

On 3/7/2024 at 10:19 AM, kissdbyfire said:

Martin wrote the relationship between Jon and Arya as the best sibling relationship in the books, even though they’re not siblings.

Can't argue with that.  Although if GRRM wants to go down the JonArya route, there is just about an opening for it, precisely because they're not siblings, and because they've been (or may be) separated in the years when Arya transitions away from childhood, so the sibling taboo never develops in the usual way. Not expecting it to happen.

On 3/3/2024 at 5:58 PM, Hippocras said:

It is a dilemma that has me wondering if GRRM is actually up to something: Maybe he is stretching the lies and secrets beyond our breaking point as readers deliberately, in order to tie the story together in the end with a finale that centres on truth: what it is; what matters and what does not; how an entire society can be built on such lies and therefore have the most crumbly of foundations imaginable.

This is way too clever for me, but... GRRM is always up to something. He's been way to clever for his own good, or we'd have a much better understanding of the books by now.

Personally I don't think a book with so much fantasy can tell us about real human societies. Planetos people are bent out of shape; surreal things happen. Also it'd be hard to write a truth-beats-lies parable when (we expect) Jon is the 'true' heir to the Iron Throne and so if the truth prevails, we end with the triumph of hereditary monarchy.

For my money, GRRM is thinking of Plato. The mortal world is a false and imperfect copy of the realm of ideas, of perfect forms (I'm not a Plato expert, mind). The physical world is 'false', the mental space is 'true' - and I think this is where the gods come in, bending mortals to their template. It's a very elitist point of view (well it is the god view), and that's why I think the false side, the mortal side, will triumph.

29 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Tyrion's conflict of his family, especially his father, is such a big part of his story, I think his being Targaryen would largely negate that, and to little advantage.  Essentially, I fail to see the point.

Well the reader's got to make a choice here. Either discard this first take on Tyrion's 'arc' (but you get another, more nuanced one!) - or discard all ideas of foreshadowing (everything that looks clever and meaningful is just a stinky mass of rotten red herrings).

5 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

Yeah its hard to say if she id either a) is manipulating stannis as part of a larger plan by the fire priests same as the large priest and victarion.

It's a fascinating idea, but I have to say very unfair on the reader because there's not so much as a flicker of unity between Mel and Benerro's crew. She is Melisandre of Asshai, her place is at the Wall, and her AA is Stannis or possibly Jon. The Essosi are on a different track entirely.

5 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

Or is a maverick whos visions have led her to genuinely believe stannis is the key not dany

This. She saw something in the flames that really made her believe. Wish we knew what.

Wish we'd see her get news of Dany, and what she thought about that.

5 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

Now in a sort of twisted way shes  been sorta right!!!!!

She saves stannis from renly then from a protracted siege on stormsend...had renly wiped him out he probbly would have easily been king and renly seems the sort to take word of demons and goblins from the north and laugh it off

Then shes refused to be allowed into the blackwater battle which is literalt decided by fire! Stannis would have been king and  in a position to better protect the realm from thw walkers as he actualy listens+ believes

Finaly she helps stannos.survive the aftermath of his colossal failure to  go on to save the watch and break the wildlings into a force to defend the wall, even hands out good advice to the idiot jon who might also be the key but he ignores it to be stabbed!!!

Yeah, she is sorta right! and that's exactly how prophecy seems to work; it always turns out, but not as expected. Soo... as Melisandre expected? or as Benerro is expecting? Because Benerro seems to have the 'obvious' interpretation, and the obvious usually has the most problems. On the other hand Mel-Stannis-Jon are looking very icy at the moment - they are on a mission to preserve, their home is the Wall. Odd, but honestly a more appealing vision than the fire-consumes vision Benerro has for Dany's followers - war, death and resurrection.

What they have in common is that both sides are amazingly fatalistic. Stannis goes out to defeat and maybe death. Jon is surrounded by lethal daggers. Moqorro is sent out on a sinking ship. Was there the memo, today is not the day they die, etc? Maybe, but it was Jojen the greendreamer who 'knew' his day hadn't arrived - Mel the fire priestess seems to look for and find specific threats to life. I don't think she could be certain of Stannis surviving the Blackwater by this method. Or Jon surviving the skulls and daggers. Fatalism.

57 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

By level headed  i mean she seems to have left them to persue  her own visions of who the fire messiah is  like a maverick , the rest seem to follow the high  fire priests lead.

Oh ok. I think all red priests are unbalanced (if they're doing it properly that is), which is probably tough for the religious hierarchy. I guess Mel's talent and complete lack of team spirit was a pain to the administration, and the only help they could offer was a long distance ticket out together with their best love.

On 2/27/2024 at 1:48 AM, Aldarion said:

If we go to alchemy, there are four elements which give life: fire, water, air, earth. Rhollor represents fire; Drowned God and Mother Rhoyne are obviously water; and Old Gods are earth. But which god represents air? I do not remember any, and it likely isn't the Seven Faced God.

Assuming magic and gods cover the same phenomena, we do have air: there are aeromancers in Asshai; Dany is gifted a 'magic' ointment to reveal spirits of the air; spirits of the air are mentioned multiple times, usually in connection with legend or ghosts.

On 2/27/2024 at 11:35 AM, astarkchoice said:

Mel we get the impression had a gift far beyond many of  her peers but refused to stay with her org and let them help her hence she can often jump to wrong conclusions more level heads at her firegod temple may take time to get right

Hm? Where did you get the impression that red priests are level headed? They're all ranting, human-sacrificing zealots. Except Thoros, and he knows he's more of a pink priest than a red one.

Circumstantial evidence points to Arryn checking out the gold-always-gives-way-to-coal theory -

Quote

[...] the lord had been taking a great interest in the breeding of hunting hounds, the lord had visited a master armorer [... and asked to see the Baratheon bastard working there].

12 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Funny, you're the second person who's suggested this. He used his exceptional juggling skills to lob it from the floor below and into the chalice without making a clink or a plop, with no possibility at all of missing.

Because from what we've seen, Butterbumps is seriously good:

Quote

Butterbumps arrived before the food, dressed in a jester’s suit of green and yellow feathers with a floppy coxcomb. An immense round fat man, as big as three Moon Boys, he came cartwheeling into the hall, vaulted onto the table, and laid a gigantic egg right in front of Sansa. “Break it, my lady,” he commanded. When she did, a dozen yellow chicks escaped and began running in all directions. “Catch them!” Butterbumps exclaimed. Little Lady Bulwer snagged one and handed it to him, whereby he tilted back his head, popped it into his huge rubbery mouth, and seemed to swallow it whole. When he belched, tiny yellow feathers flew out his nose. Lady Bulwer began to wail in distress, but her tears turned into a sudden squeal of delight when the chick came squirming out of the sleeve of her gown and ran down her arm.

As the servants brought out a broth of leeks and mushrooms, Butterbumps began to juggle [....]

ETA

Quote

Lady Alerie and the other women were giggling at the spectacle of Butterbumps bouncing oranges off his head, his elbows, and his ample rump. 

He's practised this stuff already.

36 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

There are literally a thousand pairs of eyes in the room, 99 percent of which are facing the head table, plus servants, guards and who knows how many little birds in the rafters. It's not a matter of seeing the crystal. The odds of no one see this rapid and sudden movement to the rim of the chalice are infinitesimally small, so this is about as extreme a risk as humanly possible. And whoever gets stuck with this task at the very last minute, because it could not be Olenna, would have to screw up their courage to commit regicide with little to no preparation, knowing that if they are spotted by just one person looking their way they are in for a kind of death that only the mind of Joffrey Baratheon can imagine.

Butterbumps could do it. Sleight-of-hand is his thing.

Otherwise I agree the crystal is very soluble in wine, otherwise Cresen would have screwed up, and he's supposed to be an expert.

Bravos don't wear purple, but nobles do: In the Seven Kingdoms nobles draped themselves in velvets, silks and samites of a hundred hues whilst peasants and smallfolk wore raw wool and dull brown roughspun. In Braavos it was otherwise. The bravos swaggered about like peacocks, fingering their swords, whilst the mighty dressed in charcoal grey and purple, blues that were almost black and blacks as dark as a moonless night.

No sigils at all I guess, Illyrio doesn't think much of them.

2 hours ago, Hippocras said:

It is probably more than that in this case, though hard to pinpoint.

A small detail that is probably relevant:

The cooks at Harrenhal apparently hated Harys Swyft and spit in his food. And yet whenever we are actually spending any time with Harys he seems like a pretty mild guy, not particularly brave and not a brute. Which does make one wonder about the reasons for the hatred.

Speculation, but since Harrenhal servants served House Whent until the Wot5K, it might not be about Harys Swyft himself, but rather, about some sort of history between Whents and Swyfts. And since Wynafrei Whent is another one of the names we are discussing here, the history might be one of family betrayal, Wynafrei having ultimately some kind of frosty family rivalry or relationship to Harys, Janei's grandfather.

That is good thinking - there's got to be something going on here, even though the Swyft castle is a long way from Harrenhal. It is very near Crakehall though, which is a good enough connection in itself.

2 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Janei Lannister is interesting. Her mother is Dorna Swyft, who could descend from a Frey as she is described as chinless, and that is how many Freys are described. But no proof of that. I would need to investigate if it is only the Crakehall Freys who are chinless, in which case maybe Dorna's mother was a Crakehall instead.

Reminds me that some children are named in tribute to another (e.g. Lollys's son Tyrion, originally intended to be Tywin). It's maybe possible that Janei is partly named for Cersei - Kevan was totally charmed by the young Cersei (Ser Kevan remembered the girl she once had been, so full of life and mischief. And when she’d flowered, ahhhh … had there ever been a maid so sweet to look upon?).

5 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Yes, understanding where Cersei's name comes from is part of the goal

I'd love to know this too.

Here's your 'ei' characters:

Amarei Crakehall
Amerei Frey, known as "Gatehouse Ami".
Carolei Waynwood
Cersei Frey, called "Little Bee", daughter of Ser Raymund Frey.
Cersei Lannister, daughter of Lord Tywin, wife of King Robert, twin to Ser Jaime.
Elenei
Emberlei Frey
Janei Lannister
Marei

Mellei, servant to Arianne

Missandei

Sallei Paege
Serenei of Lys
Shirei Frey
Wynafrei Whent
Zei

ETA : So many Freys! Wynafrei is married to a Frey too. And Sallei.

ETA2 : The adult women seem a sexy bunch. Zei and Marei are whores. Cersei and Amerei Fret sleep around, Crakehalls are insulted as 'sluts', Shirei's mother sleeps around.

ETA3: Added Mellei & Missandei

1 hour ago, SeanF said:

Hanging is actually unlikely to have been a swift death, in a world where the short drop is used.  The women probably spent a long time choking, and pissing themselves.  

Maybe. Maybe not. There are ways of making it quick - it depends on the executioner. Certainly Jon considered hanging for Janos and he's no sadist.

ETA Sadism is the key point for me here because I consider it a mental illness, or close to it.

1 hour ago, SeanF said:

 The reason I raised this is because it was one of the “good guys”, Ser Marq Piper, who carried out the hangings.

Good or bad, I don't care, I'm just looking for balance between the male and female characters.

Anyway, as I read it, it could be Piper's men, or Bracken's, or Bolton's, but probably not Dondarrion's. I'd still call this close to zero prominence for the person who hanged those women. 

3 hours ago, SeanF said:

Oddly, mothers seem to take it amiss when their children are murdered or threatened.  Rhaenyra's another example.  An in-universe prejudice (mothers lash out irrationally) is at risk of being treated as an ethical truth.

Children, their vulnerability and protection, get so much emphasis, I think it's a developing theme that can't be understood at this time, so I'm not going to try. Some children meet excessively brutal attacks (e.g Rhaenys and Aegon). Some get excessively noble protection (e.g. Edric Storm). I'd say Ned is swayed by this theme the most - says (for no good reason), "Robert, I ask you, what did we rise against Aerys Targaryen for, if not to put an end to the murder of children?". Well, many reasons, none of them involving the murder of children. And then of course he risks and loses everything to protect Cersei's children. I wouldn't say he appears mad though, just his fine morals overpowered his judgement.

3 hours ago, SeanF said:

I have to say that, in my eyes, the crucifixion of a group of human traffickers seems easier to justify, in ethical terms, than say, hanging young women who slept with Lannister soldiers (and who almost certainly would have had no choice in the matter).  The guilt of the former is vastly greater than the guilt of the latter.

Yes, and there's a whole other discussion to be had on who is the most evil, or who caused most suffering. It's just the point that's bugging me is, why are so many major female characters presented as mad? And why so much prominence? Someone hanged those women, but the guilty person has zero prominence, we don't know or care who did the deed. Also hanging isn't necessarily sadistic, but crucifixion is, and we're inside Dany's head when she feels the horror of it and tries to justify it to herself.

Quote

She had them nailed to wooden posts around the plaza, each man pointing at the next. The anger was fierce and hot inside her when she gave the command; it made her feel like an avenging dragon. But later, when she passed the men dying on the posts, when she heard their moans and smelled their bowels and blood...

Dany put the glass aside, frowning. It was just. It was. I did it for the children.

Now that's what I call prominence.

On 2/1/2024 at 3:59 AM, StarkTullies said:

I sort of agree that there aren't a surplus of great female rulers in the story... but are there many good male rulers either?  No.  Maybe the lesson- in Westeros at least- is that rulers are bad in general.

Aerys is the maddest ruler to be sure, but it's the prominence that hits and hurts for me. Aerys is a 'history' character, he's not a point of view, we don't spend a lot of time with him - the pull on our emotions is just not there. The same is true for all the other Fire and Blood characters - to me anyway - e.g. Alysanne may be a good queen, but her history doesn't have the life and force of a major character in Asoiaf. We don't spend enough time with her either - so due to availability error alone, Alysanne can't and doesn't balance out Cersei. 

To compare like with like - Ned and Robb are major characters and 'good' rulers. Tragic, of course, but doing their damnedest to rule wisely and well, with very humane instincts, and totally sane. There's no female equivalent - on the female side, Dany has already vengefully burnt Mirri alive, and ordered a mass crucifixion, and Catelyn, Lysa and Cersei are strongly linked to mental instability.

Arianne I actually like, she's got potential, but it's spelt out hard that she's a dreamer and not much of a thinker. She's not as big a character as the early POV's, so I'd compare her to Doran, Jon Arryn, Edmure and similar -and they all look more like rulers than her. 

I've got a hopeful feeling GRRM has got some clever scheme behind all this - there's a sort of consistency to Jaime's statement that all mothers are mad (Dany, Cersei, Lysa, Catelyn), but Arianne is not a mother and not mad. Not quite a ruler yet either.

What I want is the fantasy side of things to come out as the cause of this weird imbalance - magic, not psychiatric illness - and I'm pretty confident it will, but this is a wretched time to stop writing the books. 

On the question of love, I wonder if this is the problem?

Quote

Love is patient. Love is kind. Love does not envy. Love does not boast and is not puffed up,

It is not rude. It is not selfish. It is not provoked to anger. It thinks no evil:

It does not rejoice in injustice but rejoices in the truth.

It bears all things: It believes all things. It hopes all things. It endures all things

It's a very powerful and famous piece of writing, with I believe great influence on Western ideas of love, true love that is. It's also a bit saintly, because it was written by a saint.

It's also completely and utterly not Cersei, couldn't be less in fact. But. I'm certain George is not limiting himself to the saintly when he writes about love in the books - there's also love that hurts: mad passions (Jaime & Cersei), obsessions (Lysa), love that might drive you lose your property and your principles (Jorah), love that might drive you to murder (Jaime again, but Ned has dark suspicions of everybody I think). But it's all love as far as the themes of the books go, and there are quotes to show it:

1. The things I do for love.
2. Love is the bane of honour.
3. Love is poison.

3 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

Just because Tywin is one of the world's biggest bastards doesn't mean he's wrong about everything, either.

Fair. But Tywin is a monster hypocrite for getting all preachy about honour. Face it, honour is out of reach for the Lannisters - having Barristan by their side is not going to make people forget the treacherous Sack of KL, the murder/rape of Elia and her children, the unprovoked attacks on the smallfolk of the Riverlands by the Mountain and the Mummers etc.

Renly's supporters don't need honour either, seeing as they're usurping four heirs to the throne.

Stannis has honour and the true claim, but it does him no good.

3 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

Jaime is a good Lord Commander when he finally returns to King's Landing. But there are two critical points there: firstly, that's Jaime Mk2 (in fact, Mk3), post-maiming, post-Brienne. Secondly, that's when he returns to King's Landing. He's not in KL when first appointed and there's no way of knowing when he'll be back.

Family loyalty is absolutely key here. The truth about the twincest is out - if Barristan starts to listen and believe, he'll change loyalties in an instant. Because Joffrey is no true king.

3 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

Joffrey's Kingsguard is a disaster, and that is surely in part down to having no effective commander. Three of them abandon their posts at critical moments, leaving their charge in danger (Mandon Moore abandons Sansa at the bread riots, Boros Blount Tommen on the road, and Sandor Joffrey at the Blackwater). And also during the Blackwater, Mandon Moore attempts to assassinate the city's commander, which surely would have been a disaster (and something Jaime would have been furious about) had Tywin not largely coincidentally arrived to save the day.

Barristan didn't train them very well, did he? Anyway, the KG members were very poor quality, and caught between Tyrion and Cersei's quarrels besides. I don't think either Jaime or Barristan could have done much.

Mandon was arguably correct to protect Joff not Sansa; similarly Boros to accept new commands from the Hand over who's escorting Tommen;  Sandor didn't abandon Joffrey, he broke down and had to flee 'justice'; the assassination attempt is still a mystery.

37 minutes ago, Fencer said:

That's the thing about Cersei.  Because we get insight into her thoughts, we can see that some of her ideas are, at first blush, initially logical, but ultimately deeply flawed because she doesn't have the foresight to think through their second and third order effects.

The men don't either. They said how great it would be to have Tyrell bannermen on the Small Council. Well it happened under Kevan, and it wasn't great.

37 minutes ago, Fencer said:

Other ideas are wholly illogical and clearly driven by her vanity (Kettleblacks, etc.), which she uses to justify her bad decisions both to others and to herself. 

She needed Kettleblacks because Tyrion took away all her guards. She flirted with them because she thought it was the only way to ensure their loyalty - it's sad, but I wouldn't call it vanity, or illogical.

37 minutes ago, Fencer said:

She seems perpetually doomed to failure because (despite her opinion of herself) she doesn't actually know how to plan.  Tywin did.  Tyrion did.  Cersei never actually learned to though.   While she is the one who actually gives us the phrase about playing the Game of Thrones or dying, she herself is nowhere near the player that she thinks she is.

Tywin can't even run his own family. Tyrion ruled like a lunatic as Hand (chief policy - war with Cersei).

I don't want to argue over Cersei's every action and inaction, but I don't think we have to accept uncritically everything said by a Lannister male.

4 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

Not sure about that given he runs away when the king and capital are under attack.

Much later. And even then - the man terrified of fire fought for the Lannisters all day on Tyrion's hellfire battleground. That's pretty loyal. He fought until he couldn't take any more. 

4 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

They could have done the same thing with a less important seat. I think it makes more sense to save Harrenhal for someone who would need a greater reward.

Can't cost less than nothing. Janos Slynt was only important during Cersei's coup, but at that point his role was absolutely vital - he could literally choose between Ned and Cersei. He had to be secured at any cost. Later of course, Tyrion discarded him with no trouble at all.

4 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

I thought it was more the way Cersei went about it, i.e. publicly snubbing Mace, putting incompetent or unreliable people on the Small Council.

I don't know all the examples, but this sounds like the Hall of Lamps - Kevan says she embrassed Mace but it looks to me that Cersei was in courtesy mode when she refused Garth.  Kevan is so anxious to appease the Tyrells that he ends up with Mace as Hand (which he told Cersei she'd be a fool to do), alongside Tarly and one of the other ones, and Mace angling to get Garth on the Small Council as well.

I'm not saying Cersei's choices were great. But the Lannisters abandoned her, and the Tyrells want to take over.

10 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

Dismissing Barristan was an issue insofar as it damaged Joffrey's credibility and handed a potential propaganda victory to one of his enemies right as Joff was at his most vulnerable. Purging the two most famously honourable men in the kingdom as soon as Robert died sent a terrible message and surely helped Renly's and Stannis's causes in picking up anti-Lannister support. Imagine if Barry had gone to Stannis instead of Dany. And Jaime as LC didn't exactly worked out. 

This is Tywin's opinion regurgitated whole. I'm trying to say maybe we shouldn't take everything said by a Lannister man as the gospel truth.

Barristan is a two edged sword. He does add respectability (hasn't made a huge difference yet, but there's time). But his moral standards put a strain on his loyalty to a king like Joff - when Barristan was dismissed, all his anger and contempt come straight to the surface; and after a little more thought, he realises he's a Targ loyalist. 

No, Jaime was a better choice. Later splits in the Lannister family couldn't be predicted at that time.

16 hours ago, Fencer said:

This is actually close to part of why I enjoy Cersei's POV.  In many ways, to me Cersei parallels Melisandre, in that both are attempting to control events and bring themselves to greater power, but so terrifically misinterpret those events and their role in them that their failures reach spectacular heights.  Both view themselves are great powers, but lack the introspection to recognize and remediate their mistakes, but instead dig themselves (and those around them) deeper and deeper into crisis, and in doing so, lose even more of their self-awareness.

Fair enough, but I sincerely hope GRRM is planning something better than a long series of women in power who are stupid and go mad, and ultimately need euthanizing like the rabid bitches they are. Think of all the theories we've heard, and count 'em. Cersei. Dany. Catelyn. Melisandre. Lysa. Even Sansa.

Actually GRRM is more subtle, more grey, than he's given credit for, but he does build the 'stupid' reputation in two ways: first having the character herself think I don't know, that was a mistake, I feel stupid/helpless etc; and/or by surrounding the character with a chorus of (usually) males criticising her every decision. Cersei is mostly clear of the first, but scores big on the second with every male relative saying they would have done it so much better - which is not really proved.

Was it really such a bad idea to raise the Hound to the KG? No, he's a great bodyguard, and loyal. Was the honourable Barristan at all compatible with the Lannister way of doing things? Maybe Jaime as LC could be an improvement. Was using Harrenhal to buy Janos Slynt really such a bad deal? It cost them nothing in the end. Was it a bad idea to suppress Tyrell power in council? Apparently yes when Cersei does it, but Kevan starts to see the point of it when he has to deal with them himself. And so on.

None of which makes me a Cersei fan (no one is), but I do like backup from the text.