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  1. Vashon

    Yet another Demography Thread

    Neat, now account for the effects of the effd up weather patterns. That should about halv it
  2. Vashon

    Greatest battle commanders at the start of ASoIaF

    Do you seriously not understand the difference between battlefield tactics and deceptive murder? Olga of Kiev did similar feats to Tywin and accomplished much more with it, but she is not lauded as a battlefield commander. What? No seriously what? He was accomplished in the Ninepenny Kings but no more, bringing back order in the Westerlands wasn't a show of genius, it was a show of resolve. The real smarts behind crushing the Reyne/Tarbeck rebellion was in acting quickly and bringing forces that could be quickly raised instead of calling for all the banners. It was genius to avoid a long war but on the battlefield, Tywin was and is average. He didn't win the War of the Five Kings, everyone around him just fucked up and he took advantage of that. Everybody else being a fuck up does not make Tywin a genius. Renly could just as easily supported Stannis from the beginning, or Robb could have wedded and bedded a Frey girl right when he crossed the Twins and annexxed that land to the North and not accepted a kingship and not even tried to ally with Renly in any way and forced his mother to go homenot fucked up every off-battlefield decision he ever made. Just Robb alone would have meant the Northmen and Rivermen pillaging the Westerlands and working their way across the Riverlands, liberating and growing their number of men. Robb by himself without all of his off-battlefield stupidities was a serious problem that threatened to do to the Westerlands what Tywin had been doing to the Riverlands. Even with the Tyrell alliance, the eventual outcome is the Reach being split between occupying the Stormlands, retaking and attempting to occupy the Westerlands and fighting in the Crownlands and reinvading the Riverlands. All while Tywin is cutoff from reinforcements, the Riverlands is stabilizing and fully mobilizing its manpower in both war and harvest labor. Tywin came into a winning position by sheer dumb luck.
  3. Vashon

    Who was the Biggest Villain of the Dance?

    Maegor half assed it and only had himself to really rely on I aint even gonna address the rest, it doesn't deserve and the forums shit software makes splicing and dicing quotes a titanic pain in the ass
  4. Vashon

    How to improve the north economically?

    Well the Winters and seasons are all fucked up, so the North has limited options. Russia didn't have its population explosion until its southern farmlands, of Ukraine and Kazahkstan, were both in their possesion and secured against raiders and invasion. They also benefited from the general warming in the 1800s. The North wouldn't have the benefits of that, and while their southern most reaches have rivers that run right into the interior, that only helps so much when winter comes. When that happens, there wouldn't be any river borne commerce, and most harbors would be fucked too, so the North is stuck at a similar population density as Russia in the 1700s.
  5. Vashon

    Who was the Biggest Villain of the Dance?

    And would not have had half the support they had garnished. The way the Dance got written makes it astoundingly clear that literally everything had to go the way of the Greens(Old Town) for them to win the war, and win they did, seeing the Targaryen and Velaryon power base destroyed and the dragons removed from play, reducing them to being leal lords of the Crownlands and not much else, with the Iron Throne being little more than a convenient lie. As far as genetics go, they look like neither parents, nor grandparents, all of whom were fair haired and fair eyed and had acquiline features, with such obvious bastardry that Viserys had to use force to keep the talk out of the Red Keep, because nothing else would or could, and GRRM pulling a Rowling to try and muddy the waters changes nothing. All Rhaenyra had to do was gather all her dragons and fly directly to King's Landing, roast the Red Keep, then set the dragons free. She had a proposterous advantage, only for conspiracy, bad luck and pettiness to piss it away, something GRRM likes to write. And it was stolen from her by a massive conspiracy and eventually her own petty incompetence. Yeah its some really stupid crap, and had Viserys had a fucking brain would have resulted in Criston Cole being sent to the wall for the obvious danger he was to Rhaenyra. And Aegon II wouldn't have even claimed the throne had it not been for Criston Cole making an unveiled threat of violence right there.
  6. Vashon

    Greatest battle commanders at the start of ASoIaF

    He had excellent and experienced general staff as advisors, and a seasoned/educated officer corps. So all he needed was clever intuition and decent instinct. His success of his plans relied explicitly on having talented and loyal subordinates carry them out. His inexperience and youth lose him the war though. The greatest in the real world, Alexander and Genghis Khan, also had the advantage of excellent subordinates and having a military that was top to bottom competent, able, and well-motivated. They wouldn't have had even half the success they did without the people below them, all the way down to the basic compenent, the soldier, being of good to excellent quality. These are men with the full complement of talent, not just good in a scrap, but who have the political wherewithal to put armies together and sew countries together. They can gather and maintain all the resources they ever need or want, and only at the absolute limit do they ever reach anything like a breaking point. They uh, also have the good fortune, and good sense, to pick fights and wars they can win, and pick them as they can win them. Had say, Hitler, managed to keep an alliance with Stalin going instead of launching Barbarossa, he'd be up there. Its the 2nd tier of generals, who A. can command good loyalty and obedience, but use that to patch over weakness and achieve impressive results regardless B. have absurd advantages over their opponents and simply don't "screw it all up" that occupy the breadth and depth of "Great Generals", such as Hannibal Barca, who never managed to piece together the resources necessary to finish off Rome but nevertheless was its most dangerous adversary until it fell All Robb had to do to stay in the war was marry a Frey girl asap, ignoring a betrothal entirely, and slap the dumbass out of Karstark for being butthurt that a man died in a battle. Tywin was never that good, I really don't see the justification for rating him so highly. He had the political chops, but otherwise maintained absurd advantages in all his victories, and relied upon treachery for his greatest achievements, while with one exception, letting the peace be lost after the war was done. I'm completely serious, after he put the Westerlands to order, he never again won another peace, and just let battelfield victories wither on the vine. Cersei having nothing but obvious Lannister bastards without being "talked to", letting the Riverlands and the North turn to complete shit because he just didn't care anymore, not raising his voice to mightily high levels as Robert let his realm be beggared so badly it gave the Sevenstars and foreign powers extreme leverage just because he thought he could gain just a little more, being a total monster to Tyrion while also being an obstinate jackass to him and refusing to remarry. I mean really, he could have remarried and had a grown adult ready by the time Robert died had he remarried while Tyrion was a toddler. Tywin was an excellent autocrat, but a poor battlefield commander and in his old age, utter shit at producing anything that would guarantee a long term peace. Tywin is closer to Hafez al-Assad than say, Khalid. There aren't any generals in the highest tier in ASOIAF, Drogo came the apparent closest. Stannis is coming close to 2nd tier, and if GRRM is kind, may even start touching the top tier only to be rudely interupted. Dany is a revolutionary cult figure who has zero education in basically anything, but will largely be drawing in warriors and capable people to her, like Subutai's and Jebe's and others. Shireen may have to do something similar if and when Stannis dies, likely managing the war as a restrainer or encourgaer of this or that. So start of series, a list of the last men you want to see on the other side of the battlefield 1. Stannis Baratheon 2. Robert Baratheon 3. Khal Drogo 4. Victarion and Euron Greyjoy 5. Gregor Clegane - yeah, GRRM calls him dumb, likely because GRRM holds that opinion about big muscly mean dudes, but accidentally wrote about him evading whatever he couldn't outfight, outfighting when he chose to attack and retreating in good order on the rare occasion he was caught by surprise. Gregor Clegane isn't just a damned near unstoppable engine of personal destruction, he also has excellent instincts for calvalry raiding and preserving his force in the field and keeping a disorderly vanguard in line. If Ser Gregor was actually stupid, the Mountain's Men would have been a constantly deplenishing bunch, getting used up to destruction. Maybe GRRM will retcon it into being so, when he sees that oopsy.
  7. Vashon

    Valyrian families surviving after the Doom

    Isn't Mantarys uninhabited save for mutants? And I'd wager atleast a dozen or so dragonlords and their cohorts where dicking around in the colonies when the Doom hit, and then yes, riots. And assassinations, and the encouragement of amazingly stupid ideas. It seems those directly under the dragonlords in rank wanted to replace them on top of the totem pole, and everyone else had one sort of grudge or another against them. The Dragonstone Lords and their fiefdom was likely ignored because it very quickly became a single dragon house instead of a half dozen dragons, and their resources were limited. They could easily be ignored. Then the Chaos began and everybody in Essos had more pressing matters, and eventually Aegon and Balerion fought with Argilac and the alliance against Volantis, making it clear that the Targaryens had at least a few powerful allies now, and of course had hatched a few more dragons.
  8. Vashon

    Who was the Biggest Villain of the Dance?

    The biggest incompetent was Rhaenyra and in the lead up to it. Laena and Laenor Velaryon between them controlled Vhagar, the most powerful dragon alive at the time, and Seasmoke a very young dragon. Laena "died"(was likely murdered by Maesters) due to complications of childbirth, but Laenor? Rhaenyra had the "Cersei Syndrome" which Arianne also seems to have to a lesser degree. Having a reasonable amount of intelligence, but being an utterly spoiled and entitled little shit, even by the standards of their station, and thinking primarily with their pussy and using bluster and bullshit to justify it. All while having a father that ignores and otherwise allows the bullcrap. All Rhaenyra had to do was not fuck her bodyguard or even allow her bodyguards to fall in love with her, and then force herself on Laenor and conceive some kids. Yeah, it might be considered rape, but its also literally payment for Laenor to be king. Had Rhaenyra had legitimate children and had them with Laenor, and had she severed both hers and his connections with any former lovers, then the Dance after Viserys' death would have proceeded much, MUCH differently. A massive amount of the support for the Greens vanishes in a poof of smoke, and the other justification for forcing Aegon to try and take the throne dissappears, what with the children not being obvious bastards. I kind of wonder if Rhaenyra had been forced to name to first child a bastard and watch as all her lovers were castrated, and then be forced into a proper marriage, if the Dance could have been avoided. In which case, the conspiracy to put Aegon II on the throne dies as soon as they reach their dragons and can lolnope their surrounding conspirating douchenuggets. The only way it could have been better would be for Laena and Laenor to both be alive and well when Viserys dies. Other than that, I name Old Town, both Septons and Maesters, and their patrons the Hightowers, as the primary villains of the dance.
  9. Vashon

    How to improve the north economically?

    The North would be far less of a glass fist with some proper reserves behind it if it weren't for the crazy winters of Planetos, and I'd wager before the Long Night and proceeding fucked up seasonal patterns, it was more populous than the Westerlands or the current Stormlands, definitely more than the Vale. But all the stuff Peter the Great did was extremely contextual, and aside from GRRM being extremely silly with stereotypical fantasy ideas, there is zero indication of the North being technologically behind, or much of what made the Industrial Revolution happen be possible. Aside from that, a rival school of learning and knowledge and a fleet of their own, one which specializes in stormy and cold seas, would make sense. If only to keep fed and defend their fishing fleets. They should be rivals with the Ibbenese or close contacts. EDIT: The main beneficiary of a canal that cuts Westeros across the middle would be the Iron Born. Which is probably what they should have done instead of Harrenhal. But they had the Riverlands at the time, and with the layout of the rivers there, would have seen no need, as they had what they needed to extend Ironborn reaving more heavily into the Narrow Sea and the Shivering Sea. And if you look at the map closely, I think you could see why the Seven Stars preferred the Targs to the Ironmen. The Ironmen were strategically setup to isolate the Vale away from the rest of the power base of the Sevenstar, surrounding it by merciless followers of the Drowned God and a land of thralls and the Northmen. The Targs could be converted and then subverted, and were, the Ironmen could not be.
  10. Czarist Russia went so hard because it was the only way they had to control such a vast and, at the time, underpopulated land. They had to raise men and resources in order to fight their eternal wars against Steppe Raiders, Muslims, Muslim Steppe Raiders, Polish Incursions and Interventions, and Swedish Fucking Shits. The introducton of harder and more slavocratic serfdom was to keep track of people and to tax them, and to fill in the borders. I guess people forget the reason that land was only sparsely settled with few cities. Too vast to efficiently tax free people, who can just up and leave, and vulnerable to whomever comes out of the Steppes from the South and East. They didn't conquer the Kiev Borderlands(Ukraine) and Kazahkstan just for better farming and grazing, but for security. Russian style Czardom is impossible and unneeded in Planetos, nowhere is big enough and remote enough while also being a perpetual battleground. Even the boyars wouldn't have implemented the system if they didn't have to, they would have much preferred the cheaper and more economic forms of feudalism, and the serfs only tolerated it because the real perpetual existential threat from all directions. And even then, they only mostly put up with it, there were more than a few serf revolts centered around the Free Cossacks. Its quite notable that the system only came crashing down when there was a perception shift towards understanding the wars and the losses as wars of choice and not wars of necessity. As far as slavery in Planetos goes, it really looks more like the chattel slavery of the USA pre Civil War than Roman style slavery. With only a few trace remains of manumission or such.
  11. Vashon

    What will happen when the dragon horn is sound?

    Except there is no proof that the horn binds dragons to people
  12. Vashon

    How to improve the north economically?

    Manderlies dont push their faith on anyone else. They know their place. EDIT: I was going to put a full post, but it got ate Summaryizing We are saying that the coast would already have a larger amount of population because fishing and whaling wouldn't be so harshly affected by winter as crops and livestock would be, and also saying that the North would and should have a reasonably strong fishing fleet at the least, and now currently has a navy for its Eastern Coast Also, the difference would indeed be closer to Slavs and Celts, because we do have examples in story of outright different species, like Giants and Children and Ibbenese and Brindled men
  13. Vashon

    [TWOW Spoilers] Alayne I, v. 3

    or, hopefully, for once, a bloat thread in the story gets smushed quite quickly
  14. Vashon

    How to improve the north economically?

    Fuck the Andals and their lying ass Faith. Only religion on Planetos without real miracles. No surrender, Eddard Stark was a moronic dumbass for allowing a Sept to be built and for Septas and Septons to wander around freely
  15. Vashon

    Is Danys story the reason TWOW is delayed?

    Westeros is actually quite simple Stannis wins the North and, ironically, the Ironborn, gaining him two(2) yes TWO unreasonably strong war and merchant fleets The Freys get attacked by damned near everybody, as the Vale joins in the fighting in order to "help" the Crown put down the violence in the Riverlands, finally rooting out most of the Brotherhood without Banners and crushing the remains of Riverlander resistance and pretentions of Kingmaking The Reach suffers a devastating defeat at the hands of Euron and now cannot sit idly by and commit supportive mop up forces here and there, and now must spend real blood and money in the fight, all while having their economy devastated by the Ironborn naval supremacy preventing food exports This has a knock on effect with Dorne, but only minimally, as Dorne just sources its food elsewhere Winters get harsher and the effects start to truly be felt forcing a, heh, freeze in the action Westeros is devastated by its two main agricultural exporters being flattened, burned or hampered immediately preceeding a winter, and the civil war is still not concluded, Stannis Baratheon in a position of naval supremacy but low on manpower, with a possible Shireen Baratheon and Robyn Arryn marriage to solve that last bit, and the Westerosi heartlands just now restabilized with the Westerland low on manpower and the Riverlands depleted of it. All while Dany is slowly conquering Essos OR is forced across the continent and the sea because fuck all good reasoning and sensible story telling, time for dragons and shit . Oh and the Tyrell's very close to abandoning the Iron Throne entirely, being forced to deploy forces to slap fAegon's shit in, and supress the Faith Militant and secure the Reach against the Ironborn