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rotting sea cow

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Everything posted by rotting sea cow

  1. If you do that at the end of the year you will become the Soviet Union of America.
  2. This is a good point. My take however is that it is very difficult (and expensive) to produce quality content. The only content I've seen worth to look at involves a lot of pre- and post-production which is outside of the capabilities of the average teacher/professor/school/university/etc, so there will be a few big institutions producing content with the rest of teaching personal only playing a minor role, thus reducing diversity. People have mentioned cheating during the evaluations. I think we need to move away from the typical tests. They were barely justifiable before this crisis, they are even less so. Other forms of evaluation unfortunately require much more effort.
  3. Thanks for the info. One thing that actually bothers/worries me is that it seems (at least from my PoV) that governments do not have actual plans for the forthcoming autumn/winter other than pray that a vaccine is available and/or close everything if things start to look bad again. Since there is an increasing amount of information about the disease and its transmission, countries in the northern hemisphere should use this window of opportunity during summer to think and prepare more clever strategies. In that respect, the Swedish model is very important to tune the said strategies. To see what things went well, what went wrong, what can be improved, etc. Hopefully something like that can be implemented instead of the Spanish model, which terrified me more than the disease itself.
  4. Another from Science Magazine How Sweden wasted a ‘rare opportunity’ to study coronavirus in schools https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/how-sweden-wasted-rare-opportunity-study-coronavirus-schools I actually asked @Ran about it. I would have expected that COVID had burnt its way through the schools, universities and kindergartens, but apparently even the Swedish don't know. It would have been certainly very interesting. On a general sense. I feel there is a lack of care in terms of data keeping and using opportunities to understand the disease better, with many opportunities missed. Sure, some of them can be looked retrospectively, but in many cases won't be possible. For example, I still expect that something come out from the USS Roosevelt and Charles de Gaulle aircraft carriers outbreaks. I also hope that some people look in detail the huge disparity in morbidity and mortality among nursing homes. I've heard of nursing homes completely obliterated, others where most of the cases are mild or asymptomatic and others which have avoided any problem. I feel there is too much focus on the sick (understandingly) and not on the healthy, i.e. those who don't get sick at all and those who have had only mild cases. The later categories might have the key to defeat the disease.
  5. I don't think I've seen this here The mystery of the pandemic's ‘happy hypoxia’ https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6490/455
  6. Just my opinion. Not really interested in discussing it. I hate online learning. I hate online teaching. I hate telecons and such. Not really against homeoffice (I have no kids), but transmission of knowledge and creation of trust have both enough friction without adding the layer of multiple technical issues and impersonality that these so-called replacement create.
  7. No. It doesn't have anything to do with the claims to the throne. It has to do with the lies Dany will need to slay Stannis is not Azor Ahai. Aegon is not a Targaryen and Euron.. Exactly. That "great stone beast that breathes shadow fire and takes flight" feels like a dragon, but that "shadow fire" feels like something unnatural or something like an illusion. My guess is Euron will do some magic in Oldtown (the tower in fire is almost certainly the Hightower) and becomes a dragonrider. That "dragon" might be an illusion or something else. Maybe a fossilized dragon or an undead one.
  8. Maybe it is interesting, maybe it is not. There is truly a dearth of information about what people should/shouldn't do in case they get infected. In particular what they can do to avoid or to try to avoid getting hospitalized. It is all like. if you get covid just call ER in case things get bad. I think it is worrying because people will randomly try whatever they have heard it might help. From smuggled and/or adulterated HCQ (yes, it's a thing) to sauna baths with essential oils. BTW: Does anybody know the status of ibuprofen here. Middle March it was the worst thing you could do in case of COVID-19. Some days later it was all fine. Still, it seems doctors avoid to prescribe it.
  9. Trump stuck his ugly fingers in the topic of treatment research and clouded the waters. Hopefully wiser politicians learn from that. Since Trump mental diarrhea, every scientist and his mother are trying to disprove HCQ as potential treatment, most of the time quite clumsily. There are in fact very few studies in one way or another that are worth their pages. It is possible we never know thanks to Trump. Maybe we should ask the Indians or similar more reasonable people. ETA: Yes, @Wilbur that combo has been suggested multiple times. Will we ever know whether it works?
  10. Thanks. This is excellent Thanks for your answer and sharing your experiences. Just to be clear. I was quoting people more knowledgeable than myself. They just speculated than instead of normal colds having a protective effect, the opposite might be also possible. Thanks for the answer. I was wondering if something like that was indeed possible. The plot in question was sent to me by a cousin per whatsapp which in turn was sent to her by someone. I checked the numbers and seemed right but deleted because I get sent so much crap these days. I just tried to reproduce by myself But first a warning to everybody: CORRELATION DOES NOT IMPLY CAUSATION If fact, now I can see it again. I tend to think that most of the correlation is driven by the countries at the lower left corner which 1) are typically small 2) implemented strong containment policies.
  11. There was an article that actually goes in that direction. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/t-cells-found-covid-19-patients-bode-well-long-term-immunity# So, yes, it is possible that some people have immunity due to the common cold. However almost immediately some people speculated the opposite. It might be that the common coronaviruses cold is not conferring immunity but enhancing the disease through some Antibody-dependent enhancement. I cannot say myself. I don't have the knowledge, but that also brought to my mind a plot made by the anti-vaxxer crew that showed that the covid deaths per million rates are correlated with influenza vaccination rates. I don't have the plot at hand, but the numbers seemed right to me.
  12. I actually don't understand how the markets are still not going in full panic mode. They got that big drop towards the end of march but that was it, whilst millions of jobs around the world have been annihilated, whole economic sectors have completely stop functioning, trade has gotten more complicated than ever, governments are spending reserves after reserves, where there is no clear way out of the crisis. I kind of feel they are trying to hold for as long as possible, maybe as a tacit agreement to not make thing worse, but for how long?
  13. This disease is crazy. There are lots of similar accounts in the interwebs of people feeling miserably for weeks and there are others of people hardly having a bad night. People going to bed earlier than usual to not wake up again. People with light symptoms for weeks. People almost comatose for few days and then everything fine. People with only neurological symptoms. Etc. In reddit you can find this thread of people describing their experiences. I cannot make sense of them. It is like there is no pattern at all. I heard from someone who is doing social work during this crisis and he is equally astounded. A household where everyone is infected down to the cat and the dog. A similar household a few streets away where only one is infected and the virus skips even the grandmother. WTF?
  14. OK. Trump has threatened to withdraw US from the WHO in this letter https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1262577580718395393/photo/1 (forget the fact that he probably didn't write it by himself) 1.- Of course we know it is attempt to sidestep the blame and cover up his own failures, as countries have independence from the WHO to implement whatever policies deem necessary to protect the health of the population. In fact, US received intelligence reports regarding the situation in Wuhan as early as the 3d of January and they didn't do anything. 2.- Regardless of that, there is a nice summary of some of the WHO failures in the response to this crisis. I'd add to the list. - The WHO insistence in not closing borders as late as mid-March (as far as I recall) despite the virus was clearly spreading between countries and the Italian outbreak was already looking very bad. - The WHO opposition to the use of masks based on the claim that the virus is not "airbone", countries went their own ways and the WHO gave in after a while. - Ah... Let's not forget the Ibuprofen blunder. One day was very likely to kill a patient, the next day everything was fine. Something else?
  15. Maybe? Somewhat related? https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.01.073262v1 I think this study has been already quoted by different media as evidence that the virus didn't come from the Wuhan seafood market. From what I gather they argue that the link between already identified bat, pangolin, etc coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-2 is still missing, as none of these viruses nor a recombination of them could reproduce the characteristic of this virus. It might well be, it was already circulating and well adapted to human transmission before it got deadlier in Wuhan.
  16. Coronavirus: France fears virus may have spread in October after military games in Wuhan https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/global/coronavirus-france-fears-virus-may-have-spread-in-october-after-military-games-in-wuhan/news-story/b55680fc3b6a11b8c258317d3454961b Ok. But if this is the case, why tsunami of patients started to hit the hospitals only early March?
  17. Just to clarify because my little theory was quoted. I don't think that Arya was mentioned in the will, because the reasons you mention. Nevertheless, an alive Stark would cloud the waters, as some will claim that the will was made under false premises. People need to understand that in these situations things are not rarely crystal clear. The would-be subjects of a potential heir of Winterfell have also something to say. Who would they prefer? A child lord, a girl, a broken boy who is nevertheless inaccessible, someone married to the Lannisters or a legitimized very Stark-looking bastard with experience in command? On the other hand, that bastard broke some very holy vows. The child is supported by the powerful White Harbor. The broken boy has some awesome powers. That Sansa Lannister is coming with an army and tons of food. And the girl comes with their late king crown, an army and her undead mother.
  18. What did the FBI? I don't want to go much further, completely unnecessary. BTW: What is the possibility of Obama running again? From afar, it seems to me that Trump still needs to do much worse during the current crisis to get Biden elected. That old man cannot warm up even a horny quarantined teen, if you forgive the language.
  19. I'm not much into US politics but I'm curious, what is supposed to be that "OBAMAGATE"?
  20. Thanks for the explanations. Yes, it seems to me that the vaccine is further away than even some sober expectations. So, we need to live with the virus in the meanwhile, somehow. BTW, since you seem to be knowledgeable on the subject. What is the probability that there is some Antibody-dependent enhancement affecting the virulence of the disease? After the news about the T-cell related immunity, some people speculated that it might be that the common coronaviruses cold is not conferring immunity but enhancing the disease. That also brought to my mind a plot made by the anti-vaxxer crew that showed that the covid deaths per million rates are correlated with influenza vaccination rates. I don't have the plot at hand, but the numbers seemed right to me.
  21. It is said that they aren't actually testing everybody individually, but doing something called "pool sampling", that is getting samples of chunks of people and mix them. If they come back negative, everything is fine, otherwise you should test them individually. I'd guess the later is not happening, which would produce interesting statistical behaviours, but it is a way to massively increase your testing capabilities at a relatively lower cost. Well, to be fair. The Russian outbreak started to pick up steam only late in April. Giving that people take their time to die, it is not completely unsurprising that their number is still relatively low. It might also help that life's expectancy is only 72 years compared to 82 years in Italy.
  22. Interesting information. Specially the last. May it also explain the seemingly immune people who despite sharing close quarters with infected do not get the virus?
  23. Pretty much. Nothing indicate that the Blackfish is gay. His refusal to marry might just be a way to piss off his older brother. In Edmure's case, we know he likes "wenching" so he is probably straight. When did Edmure's mother die? It might have something to do with Hoster's attitudes. I kind of feel that Hoster dropped the ball with Edmure. Spcially if you compare the formation he received with Catelyn's. Edmure doesn't look politically savvy, niether he is a competent fighter or strategist. Did he ever squire for someone? Was he ever sent to KL to court Robert? or to Ned? It seems like he was left to hang around in Riverrun without much to do. Very unHoster-like. Hell, it seems that Hoster played a very minor role in Robert's reign despite being fundamental for him winning the throne. Well, we only know that Hoster tried Ariane Martell, which is again a very odd match, because she is the heiress of Dorne. Where they were supposed to live?
  24. I'm starting to think that, at least in the Northern Hemisphere, the best idea is to have huge chunks of the population infected before the next winter (of course trying to put protections for the vulnerable). If immunity is a thing of course. Immunological defences are typically higher in summer and people naturally don't go into close quarters, reducing the number of infections to a more manageable level.
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