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rotting sea cow

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  1. WTF? In which century are we? Let me check just in case. Nope, we are still in the 21st century. I'd guess they wanted to know things in advance in case one needs hospitalization, but with so much incompetence around, it's hard to be sure. I mean, NZ has been an example to the world, but the bar is really set so low. Let's not even talk about US, these are things happening in enlightened, modern and developed Europe. - People told to use public transport to get a test. - School kids freezing in the classrooms because the main measure is to keep the windows constantly open. Nobody even attempted to suggest to invest in a better ventilation system and install them during the summer. It's not even that cold, yet! Of course bars and restaurants remain open but calls to close the schools are constantly heard. - The number are rising, it was expected, fine, let's try to manage it but protect the vulnerable. Nope. Several nursing homes have already outbreaks, which can only lead to more death. The staff was already overburdened and underpaid before the pandemic. No one "thought" to improve their conditions for this winter. Same for health care workers. Many elderly people not living by their own, still need to fend by themselves as there is no additional support. - Oh, they are discovering traceability! Please someone tell them that it works well when case load is low. Germany for instance is going to use several thousands of soldiers, but they have no training yet.
  2. No. From the characters we know, Garlan and Willas Tyrell seem to be the nicest chaps. They are the living representation of the chivalry values. They areboth younger than Lyanna, which is a problem. But the problem with Lyanna is with a society that disallow the development of women transforming them just in a way to continue dynasties. It seems that Lyanna had a problem with that and at the end she became so desperate that run away with a married man.
  3. I've saw in the Other thread that Balon should have sent Euron to the Wall after he raped Victarion's wife. What would have happened in that case? I think it can make an interesting what-if thread. We know that Euron has no qualms breaking traditions, moral or taboos, so the NW oaths mean nothing to him. We know that Euron was already interested in magic and stuff before his journeys, probably being a warg. We know he can fake his intentions and be actually a palatable leader. We know that the Wall is a magic place that can enhance people's powers. We know that there are weirder things beyond the Wall, including the Others. Etc I think Euron wouldn't have been so displeased with the perspective and would have likely become a the LC of the NW (after killing Jeor of course) and maybe becoming some sort of Night's King. Ideas?
  4. There is the obvious bias that it's easier to catch the second reinfection if this is relatively severe. Hopefully for most is the other way around, otherwise many vaccine efforts might go down the toilet.
  5. They are doing pooled testing as far as I understand, which allowed them to quickly go through suspected groups. Certainly they are undercounting as every other country, but there is no evidence so far they are having large outbreaks. The latest were related to teenagers parties but it didn't spread further, it seems. Certainly, they might have been just lucky and benefit themselves from the reduced travel and other countries quarantines, but at the same time they have limited community spread so far, saving themselves of having to close the country again for second waves, which is the dilemma that e.g. european countries struggle now. Well, it depends whom you ask is where Uruguay sits. I've also been in these countries. But anyway, as in any LA country inequality is very high and that has been the Achilles heel over there. The virus was initially brought by international travellers and it was contained for a while as more affluent people were able to take measures, but once SARS-CoV-2 started to hit poorer areas it was a lost cause and there is really no way to control the spread. It has been the same in Peru, Argentina, Chile, Brazil, etc. So far, it hasn't happened in Uruguay. Since I was made aware of this peculiar situation, I've been checking regularly the newspapers and forums and it seems that COVID-19 is not a major topic over there. This is my main point. There seems to be the idea that this can only be fought with lockdowns, which is not the case and actually - given that it's extremely damaging - it should be the last resort. I don't criticize the early lockdowns as countries were struggling to understand what was going on. I still - of course - criticize the governments for not putting enough attention. Pretty much. It seems to me that Europe has not only wasted the lockdowns but also the whole summer and now there is no strategy at all.
  6. Uruguay has probably the best standard of living in S. America. If Chile can do almost 3 millions of tests, there is no reason to think that Uruguay can't. Also, who are you going to test? Practically no country in the world is knocking doors and testing random people. They test people with symptoms and people who have been in contact with infected. These things that Uruguay is doing as well as aggressive contact tracing which can only realistically be done when the number of infected is low.
  7. I think this is the best argument to take (harsh) measures early: The real possibility that in few months the understanding of the disease and the virus will allow newer treatments that drastically reduce death and severe illness. These models do not take into account this effect. Now we have a plethora of medicines and treatments, with some of them very promising. Don't forget Uruguay And closing the country doesn't necessarily prevents deaths. Just ask the Argentinians, the longest lockdown eva(tm) and they are at 22k and rising (and they are undercounting). Whilst nearby, little Uruguay hasn't locked down and has managed to keep the infections at very low level (49 deaths today)
  8. The Swedish might have gotten the things right Read carefully. https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2020/10/07/covid-19-modelling-the-pandemic/
  9. Because there are other confounding factors. It isn't a single one. The black population in US tends to be poorer with less access to health services, living in cramped spaces. I also think to remember that obesity is also more prevalent in the American Black population. Also, IIRC the genetics of the whole think are complicated, apparently that particular gene is more prevalent in Asian populations than European ones. The gene comes from the Neanderthals, but they are extincted long ago, Sapiens have mixed themselves a lot since then.
  10. Also, in ADWD we got the spin of the possible magic origins of the grey scale (aka Garin's curse) with even some Others overtones. "but there's another tale I like better. The one that says he's not like t'other stone men, that he started as a statue till a grey woman came out of the fog and kissed him with lips as cold as ice." - Tyrion V, ADWD There might be a reason why Val believes that, Greyscale might behave differently north of the Wall, so, if the Wall falls...
  11. Wait, wait, wait. There are two different things PCR positive twice means that the virus is replicating in the upper respiratory tract. It is unclear that the current vaccines frontrunners will be able to prevent that, but they will certainly prevent the disease. Having COVID-19 twice is a completely different thing. It means that the body is unable to recognize the virus and thus cannot mount an adequate immune response.
  12. Ok, This is around the news. Here is just one article. Coronavirus: WHO estimates 10% of global population infected with COVID-19 https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-who-estimates-10-of-global-population-infected-with-covid-19/a-55162783 I've no idea how they are calculating these numbers. 10% means ~750 millions of people. The current death toll just surpassed 1 million, so even with vastly undercounting the IFR would be around 0.2%, hardly more dangerous than the Flu. It would also speak of a large fraction of asymptomatic individuals. Something smell fishy here. Is this disease really dangerous? Or just too contagious?
  13. The President’s Coronavirus Treatment https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/10/05/the-presidents-coronavirus-treatment Just in case you are wondering
  14. No only Russia is planning a Falcon-9 look alike ESA has the Arianne Next in the books https://ariane6.cnes.fr/fr/lanceurs-ariane-next-regarde-vers-la-prochaine-decennie (link in French) and even further away a fully reusable version known as Ariane Ultimate The future Chinese Moon Rocket (currently unnamed) actually look very similar to the Falcon Heavy, but even heavier. There is no mention about reusability but the configuration is suspicious (7 kerolox engines per core) https://www.space.com/china-rocket-for-crewed-moon-missions They also have a bunch of other reusability projects. The Russian Amur rocket would use 5 methalox engines and its announcement is weird because it would be able to put ~9 tons to LEO putting in direct competitions with the cheap and reliable Soyuz-2.1 and the future Soyuz-6 using the RD-180 engine. It's not the only reusable rocket in the books. They also have a light rocket called Krylo-SV based on the experience with the Baikal project https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baikal_(rocket_booster) There is another interesting project called Corona https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CORONA_(rocket) but I don't think it will ever see the light.
  15. The tests aren't without risk. The risk of damage of the nasal cavity and a subsequent infection is real. This will depend how they are performing the tests (nasal swaps vs saliva for example) and who is doing. I of course expect that Biden has access to the best practitioners. Everyday is a bit excessive. Twice a week is probably fine. More important is to send the samples to two different labs to lower the chance of a false negative.
  16. I know little about US politics and I have little interest in learning more, but I cannot suppress feeling some perverse pleasure by knowing that a government might have "canceled" itself because they didn't take some basic security precautions. It is like the whole cabinet took a trip in a treacherous river in a inflatable boat without wearing life vests, because somehow they though themselves to be good swimmers.
  17. He's the president and they are doing some experimental treatment with him. An hospital setting is the best place to monitor his health. Although fast worsening of symptoms is not unheard, many physicians argue that treatments should start early on if you want a good outcome. If you wait for too long the expectations are not good.
  18. Interesting, very interesting. Because, things like this are very very hard to find from open sources. The Regeneron is completely new treatment. It is not completely validated and may backfire.
  19. Where is Pelosi right now? If this is for real, the Pentagon should be already protecting Pelosi to ensure the continuity of the chain of command.
  20. Nice, a superspreading event at the White House and the Capitol?
  21. The military takes these things seriously. There are very old plans to ensure that the chain of command is never lost and stays clear. Given that Pence could also become unavailable, the plans might be activated. I'd think that watching out for Pelosi and the others can be the strongest indication of something going on.
  22. BTW: With the amount of shouting during the debate, I wonder how many people Trump infected.
  23. Yes, it's an strong indication that something serious is going on. Where's Pence and the rest of the chain of command? (as a side note, Russians were claiming that US bombers were taking exercise shots at Russian bases some time ago)
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