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rotting sea cow

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  1. Ok. Thanks for the replies re BLM protests vs Memorial Day. I've never been in US and I've no idea how things work there.
  2. U-turn from Texas Gov. Greg Abbott issues statewide mask order https://abc13.com/health/mask-order-issued-for-entire-state-of-texas/6292458/ C'mom gringos. Why do you need to politicize everything? Wear a damn mask, it's so simple and it can make a huge difference.
  3. The mutation was found first in March (at least I read about it then). This is the original article that discussed that particular mutation although it was heavily criticized. Spike mutation pipeline reveals the emergence of a more transmissible form of SARS-CoV-2 (30-April-2020) https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.29.069054v1 It is probably the same article, heavily revised. But the mutation was known. These are other articles discussing that particular mutation. All of them at least a month old. https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.04.075911v1 https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.04.075911v1 https://github.com/blab/ncov-D614G The last one has a nice graphic of the timeline of the mutation, with the first one appearing late January in Washington State. The study published in Cell is based upon those studies and pretty much confirm that mutation increases infectivity, but not necessarily severity, which is partly good news.
  4. Operation Warp Speed’s opaque choices of COVID-19 vaccines draw Senate scrutiny https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/operation-warp-speed-s-opaque-choices-covid-19-vaccines-draw-senate-scrutiny
  5. No. This has been discussed again and again. Westeros cannot conquest the Stepstones (let alone the Free Cities). The reason is simple. To keep the Stepstones, you will need a large navy and army. These are expensive. You have two choices here. 1) These are financed from the crown resources drawing extra taxes from the rest of Westeros with all political implications 2) Finance them by fees from passage. The later will draw the ire from the Free Cities which will wave war against you. Braavos, the Three Sisters and Volantis. It's a war you cannot win. And for what? A few poor rocky islands. This is the reason why the pirates thrive there. Nobody really want to be in charge of these islands. The political implications are too big and the gain is too small.
  6. Ok. Then why do some people argue that the Memorial Day did create outbreaks? What was the difference with BLM protests?
  7. These are kind of old news. It has been now confirmed by a new study. It makes the virus likely more contagious. The mutation was first detected in Italy back in March and that variant became dominant en Europe. The Chinese variant doesn't have that mutation. There have been a lot of speculation about the significance of that mutation. For example, the Chinese variant is (was?) dominant in the west coast and accordingly it was observed that the outbreak was not nearly as bad as in the east coast where the European variant dominated. I supposed now the European variant is now dominant in US too. ETA: Link to the original Cell article https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)30820-5
  8. Someone had to record the whole damn thing if they ever wanted to have some sort of credibility.
  9. Someone had to write a registry my bad. Still she has to recognize Rhaegar's heirs. The issue here is more than legal. I don't think that Jon will ever try to claim the throne. I don't think either that Jon's parentage will be widely known or people will flock to his banner. I think the issue will be more personal. For Dany, he will represent an hypothetical legal threat and a clash with her perceptions of Rhaegar. For Jon a confrontation with his identity. Well. What you describe is the issue I have with the polygamy thing. The Targaryens married brother and sister for generations, still we don't find more examples of polygamy in the complementary works, despite that it's a clear way out for Rhaegar-Lyanna marriage. Much better solution than an annulment, which would paint Rhaegar in very very bad light. Aegon VI is not the Conqueror. We know that. Thanks for the quote. As I said. It's really an issue with the complementary works re the main series. Isn't the reason why you are asking? primogeniture is already complicated with a single wife. What if the older brother is an idiot and the second a capable guy? This is the argument of Tarly re:Sam. Now imagine this with two o more wife. And in the end it doesn't matter for whoever lustful and powerful Lord. He can have all the women he wishes without these complications. I don't think so. Otherwise more characters should be aware of that which doesn't seem to be the case. I know GRRM can dance around big things to be revealed later but I don't this is the case. Probably, Rhaegar wanted to reveal that weeding after a time he can manage whatever political gymnastic he wished to perform. He never got a chance.
  10. Pretty much my thoughts on the issue. They can keep it for themselves. Bloody thing is expensive and hardly of help. Production is difficult to scale up. Too much noise for too little. Gimme dexamethasone any day. I wouldn't discard HCQ yet. There is so much sloppy research around it that it's hard to say. The Moroccan government is using the more toxic variant chloriquine with apparently good results. They attribute the low CFR to it. This is a good article on the issue. Chloroquine and COVID-19: A western medical and scientific drift? https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0953620520302661 Yes and look for other suppliers. BTW. I read somewhere that the same applies to the Moderna vaccine. Bloody thing needs cryogenic temperatures to keep it stable. In case it becomes effective and safe enough it will be a logistical nightmare anyway.
  11. There is the speculation that AC systems "aerosolize" the virus, so filtration and disinfection need to be really good. On the other hand, no outbreaks have been linked to airplanes as far as I know. The german railways published an study where they claim that high air exchange may have prevented infections in train systems around the world. Maybe there is something to learn. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342353367_Preliminary_Implications_of_COVID-19_on_Long-_Distance_Traffic_of_Deutsche_Bahn (On the other hand the german railways are in a dire financial crisis)
  12. My modest opinion The later. But I don't think it will be too relevant overall. It will matter mostly for Dany. That is. If Dany claims being Rhaegar's heir, she has to acknowledge Jon and be consistent with the Targaryen's traditions, which is another reason why the lack of polygamy examples during the Targaryen's dynasty bugs me. The only one who has ever considered that is Dany, but I don't think it will happen. The best possibility is that Hizdahr is still alive somewhere and Dany marries someone else, but I give it a too slim chance. Aegon wll be too dependent on the Faith to attempt such a thing. This bugs me. A lot. I understand that polygamy is undesirable for the Westerosi society because it messes up the rules in inheritance, very important in a feudal society (Valyrians didn't have that problems, riding a dragon was all what mattered probably). Besides that, I don't find evidence of being a sin, unlike incest, which was nevertheless repeatedly allowed by the Faith. Yet, we don't see other polygamy examples during the Targaryen rule. I think that Rhaegar and Lyanna married with witnesses present. Probably a few of Rhaegar's friends, a maester and maybe, maybe some septon and on front of a tree. Otherwise, I don't think the nature of the marriage was widely known. I don't think he will. But in the hypothetical case, it will draw him in unnecessary problems with a more assertive Faith. In that hypothetical case, she will be seen in even worse light. A barbaric queen with two spouses at the front of an horde of eunuchs and savages. Stannis, certainly not. Euron maybe. The ironborn culture has more room for these things.
  13. Not only that. All preventive measures that most of the (reasonable) world population is taking against COVID-19 will also help to prevent the Flu (masks, social distancing, washing hands and so on). If things continue that way, I predict a very mild flu season the coming winter. In some South American countries, the health authorities consider SARS-CoV-2 the only circulating virus around. How are things in that respect in N. Zealand?
  14. Please! Even Arya notes the resemblance and shrugs it off because Gendry has the same traits! Becasue Maggy told her the number
  15. We shouldn't discard the bold. We have seen that in the COVID pandemic. As long as it was confined to China, everybody was just shrugging it off. Etc. Incidentally, I met in my past life (it almost feels so) someone who was working with AIDS patients of neglected social segments. They aren't just the gays we always like to talk about who had an unlucky night. No, they are often drug addicts, trans and street sex workers. Their health, psychological, social and general human problems are on different scales which makes them very difficult to work with. The nurse I met was working in a house for those inpatients and robbery, escapes, fights, assaults, suicide attempts and even murder were unfortunately too frequent. The people who we all prefer to ignore they exist.
  16. Thanks for your replies, very much appreciated. One of the things it bugs me by reading around, is that SARS-COV-2 appeared in its "final form" in Wuhan and has mutated very little since the earliest identified samples. This is unlike SARS and MERS where mutation chains were clearly identified. It is also not expected to happen in zoonotic events where a period of adaptation to the human hosts need to occur. The only possibility is the virus has been circulating undetected earlier than the official timeline and acquired its most virulent traits in Wuhan around November. For example, there is quite a certainty that the virus was circulating in Europe in December 2019, however it didn't create a large outbreak, or it did but it wasn't detected due to lower virulence (?). There are cases of COVID-19-like illness in November 2019 and the French claim that their team came back from Wuhan with some sickness late October. I have in my bookmarks some suspicious pneumonia outbreaks around the world in the second half of 2019 and IIRC @The Anti-Targ was reporting very early in these threads of a pneumonia epidemic in Iran of unknown origins. I didn't believe him at first but now I'm far more inclined to listen. So,I think countries really need to look back and check medical records, blood samples and environmental monitors to look for suspicious signals. Maybe veterinarians should also have a look too. In the future, there is certainly a need to improve the virus monitoring systems, there is a high chance that this one slipped right under our noses/
  17. Apologies, I was in mobile and it's difficult to edit stuff with my thick fingers. I edited it now Well, the authors believe it might be an error. But if the samples are not contaminated it might be telling us something. From what I understood, PCR are sensitive to parts of the RNA sequence, not to the whole one. This creates the possibility of cross-reaction with something else. It's not MERS, neither other human-coronaviriae. But then what? Hopefully the researchers will try to sequence the amplified samples and get something out of them. Maybe also check the medical records of nearby hospitals in the hope to find something that matches. Someone here was also working in a covid-related research with wastewater, so he/she might be interested in chiming in. @Impmk2
  18. SARS-CoV-2 detected in waste waters in Barcelona on March 12, 2019 https://www.ub.edu/web/ub/en/menu_eines/noticies/2020/06/042.html?
  19. His editors have suggested to do that but he has refused, for whatever reasons. It might well be he was not happy with the situation of AFFC vs ADWD. Also, for example If many of us are right and Barristan Selmy dies early in TWOW, GRRM's statements also mean that he is going back and forth between chapters adjusting little things. He cannot do that once the book is released. George, please, can't we have at least another sample chapter? Please?
  20. We discussed that already. Yes, it's responsibility of each country to implement adequate policies. But the WHO here, and in other cases, has been utterly irresponsible too. They are supposed to keep a certain level of credibility and when governments are trying to implement policies and they come back with such BS which in turn is echo by the media, it only creates confusion in an already difficult situation. And notice, the WHO is still not convinced that masks are helpful as a broad intervention, despite the growing evidence of the contrary. Japan for instance has barely done anything else, except using masks everywhere and they have been spared of the worst.
  21. This should be highlighted. Yes, I don't understand either the reluctance of people to wear masks. It is a simple yet quite effective measure, even if your masks aren't professional.
  22. Where did you get that? As far as we know she has killed three (if I'm not mistaken) and we have met four of Robert's bastards. Mya, Edric, Gendry and Bella. Do I forget anyone?
  23. I've been saying that for a while. He has repeatedly said "two more books". The only way to do that and reach some key plot lines is writing a very long TWOW book, which can only be released as two volumes. If he manages that, I tend to think that ADOS might be shorter.
  24. But your government claims more than 5000 tests/day according to ORF, only less than 1% come back positive. After the Postcalypse, there haven't seem to be large superspreading events. It is unclear of course if the virus is spreading silently with mild symptoms among the populace to only emerge in full force again very soon.
  25. If infection numbers are increasing you should get a respective raise in hospitalizations. Is it at the expected rate? Possibly difficult to say. But deaths are are hard to hide, so in one or two weeks we should know. But you might be right. There might be a fraction of the population who are highly susceptible to the virus. This might explain why we still don't see any upward trend in Europe nor in heavily affected states in US. It's like the virus needs to run through some vulnerable populations. Of course this speculation may be BS and there are other reasons, but we still need to explain these observations.
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