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rotting sea cow

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Everything posted by rotting sea cow

  1. BTW: I'm trying to find information, but apparently the virus found in the Shangai market is a new variant containing several mutations. Some newspapers had some scary tones, but apparently it might be less harmful.
  2. Many European countries have already 6+ weeks of reopening and there are no new spikes. We discussed that in the last two or three pages. Sure, many people are careful, but not all. Parks are full. Etc. Why is that? I don't know. Except for things like this This is like the third or fourth outbreak at a slaughterhouse in Germany. There have been also some apartments blocks quarantined. Some post depots outbreaks. Churches. Etc. Mostly superspreading events. Interestingly no outbreaks are associated to schools or kindergartens (AFAIK), which reminds me a lot of the Swedish experience.
  3. You are misunderstanding me. NY and other hardly hit places in April look now pretty much like Europe. Not new upsurges yet. Places that were "spared" in April are now starting to look bad. Maybe is too early to say what will happen in Europe, but there have been many weeks of continuous relaxing and not large outbreaks. Some eyebrows have been raised.
  4. Maybe? Maybe not. As with Europe, despite the general relaxing of restrictions no new upsurges are observed yet. I'm cautiously optimistic, but I tend to think that once a key fraction of the population, the disease has trouble in expanding further. That fraction may change of course, due to social distancing policies, idiosyncrasy, weather patterns and other factors.
  5. Dexamethasone for Coronavirus Infection https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/06/17/dexamethasone-for-coronavirus-infection a good take on the news with of course some cautionary notes.
  6. The sloppy research regarding HCQ continues. Apparently the RECOVERY trial in UK (mentioned early in this thread) confused hydrixichloriquine with hydroxquinolones. I facepalmed. This is Oxford ffs.
  7. Yes, Jacinda Ardern is very angry. Months of efforts thrown down the toilet. Hopefully they don't create a massive outbreaks This is hard, very hard to contain.
  8. Also, it is very very cheap. It is a known drug with known safety levels. It can be mass produced whilst Remdesivir is complex to scale up. Overall very good news.
  9. Yes, but in a TV setting you would also like to make the story comprehensible. If you have too many locations, viewers will have trouble in following the story. Also, at the end of a season you would like to reach certain plot points and it becomes harder when you are switching between too many locations and plotlines. For example in the AFFC sessions you have: Dorne, Iron Isles, King's Landing, the Riverlands, Braavos and Vale. As well as Sam's journey. In ADWD you have mostly The North (The Wall and beyond, Winterfell), and Essos (Tyrion and Aegon) and Slaver's Bay. Now some plotlines start to intersect in the second half of ADWD. Asha's story with Theon's and Stannis. Victarion with the Slaver Bay. So it indeed becomes complex.
  10. I don't think that Ned told him or others that he was looking for Lyanna. He rode to Storm's End to fight the last battle in the name of Robert and accepted the fealty of Tyrell and subjects. In the meanwhile and quietly, he was likely trying to find Lyanna's whereabouts. Probably Howland Reed had a key part on this.
  11. There are some fears that the virus can hide itself in the body like the Herpes virus to reappear at the worst moment, which may explain these reports of people sick for months. The question is of course, are they exceptions or just the tip of the iceberg? We have talked before about the great variety of symptoms observed and it's bewildering. so we cannot exclude anything.
  12. First. Classical herd immunity is reached at 1 - 1/R0. Given that the "natural" R0 of COVID-19 is heavily disputed with numbers as low as R=1.6 to as high as R0=6, the herd immunity can be achieved at very different levels. Second. With the infection dominated by superspreaders events, one can substantially lower the spread by minimizing those events. Even if that doesn't happen, the disease will find bottlenecks and spread will slow. See for example this: https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.03085 and the Australian strategy for re-opening https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3625655 So, in case of heavely affected countries/regions, I do think that once the most socially "promiscuous" (for lack of a better word) will create a social firewall that will slow the spread substantially. It doesn't mean of course carte-blanche for doing anything.
  13. Pretty much agree. I don't think that Aegon will last long once Dany comes to Westeros. Although the price of victory will be high. Euron is a different thing. I tend to think that many will need to join forces to defeat him, with Dany (and Jon?) giving him the last blow. This alliance against Euron will likely be the prelude of the alliance against the Others.
  14. Jon's body will likely be stored in the ice cells for a while. Since ice preserves, most likely his body will not be as damaged as LS or Beric. The question is of course what will happen once he is resurrected. There is a theory that at some point his body will be placed in a firepit but it won't burn, mirroring Dany's birth of dragons. Maybe he will come back changed? With silver hair? I don't like much the last part actually.
  15. Pretty much. It also gives a lot of freedom in terms of world building, flashbacks, places, etc. I disagree with the statement that seasons cannot be split between Feast&Dance. Yes, it can be done as long as you include the chapters of the recurrent characters that appear in Dance (Arya, Jaime, Cersei). This way, give more incentives to watch the next season.
  16. Western developed countries have no excuse. We all agree here. They have the resources, including intelligence reports and the political clout to pursue independent policy. Still disagree with you, sorry. You might be right on these particular points, but WHO statements have created at the very least confusion. I don't come from a developed country, mind you, so I know on the ground how things are. I have also done voluntary work and one of the things I learned is that clear easy to understand message are fundamental. Furthermore, if their mission was to protect the most vulnerable countries they should have advised the border closure which could have slowed down the spread of the disease for several key months. Finally, in my home country, it was just found that the Health Ministry has been doctoring disease fatalities. The Minister was sacked, but it became clear that the WHO was aware of the true figures (and not the citizens) and was compelled into silence via "incentives". With that the last bit of confidence on the WHO faded away.
  17. The virus spread seems to be mainly driven by superspreading events. You remove those and you can nearly stop the pandemic. Extra care need to be taken to identify those places that can lead to superspreading and be quick to react once one event like that happens. It has happened in the slaughterhouses in Germany, the Post in Austria and some nursery home over there. Of course weather helps. People having fun outside in relatively small groups is probably quite safe. Using of masks in enclosed spaces is probably very effective. Lots of people are still working at home. I wonder nevertheless about next winter. It doesn't seem that governments have a plan.
  18. I'm sorry but I disagree. Exactly for that reason. Rich countries can afford independent policy, they have the resources for that. Poorer countries are more heavily dependent of WHO recommendations, so they need to be extra careful about what they said. And they have said a ton of BS during this pandemic. I put down some examples. - They opposed travel restrictions but the only countries that are doing fine are the ones that closed the border early. Worse, anyone could have guessed if the virus reach poorer countries the situation could have gone bad. - They are still opposing widespread use of masks. Sorry, but I rate the WHO very poorly in this crisis
  19. You might be on something. There are (admittedly sketchy) reports that air conditioning might aerosolize the virus and thus increase its infectivity.
  20. Yeah. Unfortunately. Let's not forget they have been saying pretty much forever that masks are useless, despite growing evidence they are actually helping. Let's not forget they vehemently opposed against closing the borders back in February (or maybe before) whilst the disease was spreading around the world. Now borders are mostly closed and going to remain that way for who knows how long. Let's not forget the recent hydroxychloroquine debacle. Similarly, I have also word from other people they are refusing to include other drugs in their lists (like Interferon-alpha). There have been countless almost schizophrenic statements and behaviour from the WHO that makes you scratch your head and think what the hell they do want.
  21. Yes. This almost certainly represents Euron and the tower is likely the Hightower. Which other tower can be?
  22. Forgot about the FM. I think he is looking for some book, most likely one called "the Death of Dragons". I don't like the idea of him being an Euron agent, but it's a possibility. I tend to think he is in a official mission from Braavos. Otherwise, I don't know what to expect of him. I tend to think that the Citadel will sacked and burned by Euron, the maesters and archmeasters (the grey sheep) slaughtered and sacrificed. I certainly expect Sam, Sarella, Gilly and others (even that nasty Leo Tyrell) flee with all things they can, books, objects and people to take refugee at Horn Hill. The Hightower will be burned of course as seen in the HOTU visions by Dany. It is also possible that even a good part of Oldtown is destroyed by a tsunami.
  23. This is very likely. The question is what it does, what Euron will do with it.
  24. Probably, but from 2030+ onward. Anyway. Gateway will be delayed few years too, won't be surprised if it gets cancelled altogether.
  25. I wonder what reason you have to put real monsters like Euron and Ramsay together with Jon and Doran, who might be wrong on certain things but overall are nice people. Just personal biases I'd guess.
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