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rotting sea cow

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  1. Maybe it's just serum Vitamin D levels. At the end of the winter they are the lowest. This hypothesis has been put forward as one of the main drivers of COVID-19 severity.
  2. I agree with the @The Anti-Targ There are other alternatives to "only an effective vaccine can get out of this". I tend to think that people aren't thinking creatively. For example there was a lot of noise about the BCG vaccine some months ago that might offer some general protection (apparently the optimism was unfounded), some with MMR vaccine or the Polio's. These things need to be investigated and translated into public policy. What about Vitamin D? Or other immunological boosters? They might make a huge difference in the rate of critical cases and ultimately death. At the same time treatments are evolving and improving, despite the messy science sometimes (see the HCQ polemics). Together they might reduce the IFR to let's say 0.1% making it not worse than the flu. But you might ask, but the disease is still far more contagious than the flu. Well, but some proper non pharmaceutical measures can make huge impact in the transmission rates. Masks anyone? Be careful with places that can lead to superspreading events. Create incentives and support for infected people to stay at home. Etc.
  3. I mean, you cannot say that the ur-letter are abandoned plotlines. It was the original idea with some wide plot strokes. When AGOT was published a lot of it was already wiped out clean. What was abandoned? Probably a lot that was planed for the five year gap. We know for example that GRRM wrote a chapter with Tyrion meeting the Shrouded Lord. It's probably that GRRM wanted Dany to go to Asshai and never came around it. Similarly, it's possible that few things have been abandoned during the writing of TWOW, although I don't expect anything so critical as during the five year gap.
  4. Holy crap! COVID-19 scientists need to get their sh*t together. There is too much rush in publish stuff which is affecting quality, which in turn affects public policy and even more importantly, the credibility of science as a whole.
  5. @[email protected] I mean. I believe that AC is a thing to look carefully and I know what you say about the differences in Europe wrt US. If AC is a thing, which is probable needed to explain the outbreaks at slaughterhouses, we should start seeing outbreaks where they are used too, like hotels, office buildings, etc. There is of course the confounding effect of personal precautions, aggressive testing, etc that would tone down the expectations. I also have the speculation that people who already got COVID19 might be acting as a social barrier hampering the progress of the disease, which might also explain the same behaviour, because not all persons have the same level of social contact.
  6. Myrcella is travelling back to KL. This is one way she could die.
  7. So air conditioning might be behind of the new surges in US and elsewhere? I mean, there are speculations that AC causes the virus to become an aerosol by drying up the droplets. But what about south European countries where AC is also prevalent? I'd worry specially about hotels (tourism is back!) with centralized AC systems is this is true.
  8. I've reading about it. Apparently masks are far more effective than people might naively think. Air conditioning might be also an issue too.
  9. Well, Israel isn't in Europe, but clearly they are experiencing a second wave, with cases raising steadily for a couple of weeks. How prevalent is the usage of air conditioning there?
  10. BTW: I'm trying to find information, but apparently the virus found in the Shangai market is a new variant containing several mutations. Some newspapers had some scary tones, but apparently it might be less harmful.
  11. Many European countries have already 6+ weeks of reopening and there are no new spikes. We discussed that in the last two or three pages. Sure, many people are careful, but not all. Parks are full. Etc. Why is that? I don't know. Except for things like this This is like the third or fourth outbreak at a slaughterhouse in Germany. There have been also some apartments blocks quarantined. Some post depots outbreaks. Churches. Etc. Mostly superspreading events. Interestingly no outbreaks are associated to schools or kindergartens (AFAIK), which reminds me a lot of the Swedish experience.
  12. You are misunderstanding me. NY and other hardly hit places in April look now pretty much like Europe. Not new upsurges yet. Places that were "spared" in April are now starting to look bad. Maybe is too early to say what will happen in Europe, but there have been many weeks of continuous relaxing and not large outbreaks. Some eyebrows have been raised.
  13. Maybe? Maybe not. As with Europe, despite the general relaxing of restrictions no new upsurges are observed yet. I'm cautiously optimistic, but I tend to think that once a key fraction of the population, the disease has trouble in expanding further. That fraction may change of course, due to social distancing policies, idiosyncrasy, weather patterns and other factors.
  14. Dexamethasone for Coronavirus Infection https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/06/17/dexamethasone-for-coronavirus-infection a good take on the news with of course some cautionary notes.
  15. The sloppy research regarding HCQ continues. Apparently the RECOVERY trial in UK (mentioned early in this thread) confused hydrixichloriquine with hydroxquinolones. I facepalmed. This is Oxford ffs.
  16. Yes, Jacinda Ardern is very angry. Months of efforts thrown down the toilet. Hopefully they don't create a massive outbreaks This is hard, very hard to contain.
  17. Also, it is very very cheap. It is a known drug with known safety levels. It can be mass produced whilst Remdesivir is complex to scale up. Overall very good news.
  18. Yes, but in a TV setting you would also like to make the story comprehensible. If you have too many locations, viewers will have trouble in following the story. Also, at the end of a season you would like to reach certain plot points and it becomes harder when you are switching between too many locations and plotlines. For example in the AFFC sessions you have: Dorne, Iron Isles, King's Landing, the Riverlands, Braavos and Vale. As well as Sam's journey. In ADWD you have mostly The North (The Wall and beyond, Winterfell), and Essos (Tyrion and Aegon) and Slaver's Bay. Now some plotlines start to intersect in the second half of ADWD. Asha's story with Theon's and Stannis. Victarion with the Slaver Bay. So it indeed becomes complex.
  19. I don't think that Ned told him or others that he was looking for Lyanna. He rode to Storm's End to fight the last battle in the name of Robert and accepted the fealty of Tyrell and subjects. In the meanwhile and quietly, he was likely trying to find Lyanna's whereabouts. Probably Howland Reed had a key part on this.
  20. There are some fears that the virus can hide itself in the body like the Herpes virus to reappear at the worst moment, which may explain these reports of people sick for months. The question is of course, are they exceptions or just the tip of the iceberg? We have talked before about the great variety of symptoms observed and it's bewildering. so we cannot exclude anything.
  21. First. Classical herd immunity is reached at 1 - 1/R0. Given that the "natural" R0 of COVID-19 is heavily disputed with numbers as low as R=1.6 to as high as R0=6, the herd immunity can be achieved at very different levels. Second. With the infection dominated by superspreaders events, one can substantially lower the spread by minimizing those events. Even if that doesn't happen, the disease will find bottlenecks and spread will slow. See for example this: https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.03085 and the Australian strategy for re-opening https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3625655 So, in case of heavely affected countries/regions, I do think that once the most socially "promiscuous" (for lack of a better word) will create a social firewall that will slow the spread substantially. It doesn't mean of course carte-blanche for doing anything.
  22. Pretty much agree. I don't think that Aegon will last long once Dany comes to Westeros. Although the price of victory will be high. Euron is a different thing. I tend to think that many will need to join forces to defeat him, with Dany (and Jon?) giving him the last blow. This alliance against Euron will likely be the prelude of the alliance against the Others.
  23. Jon's body will likely be stored in the ice cells for a while. Since ice preserves, most likely his body will not be as damaged as LS or Beric. The question is of course what will happen once he is resurrected. There is a theory that at some point his body will be placed in a firepit but it won't burn, mirroring Dany's birth of dragons. Maybe he will come back changed? With silver hair? I don't like much the last part actually.
  24. Pretty much. It also gives a lot of freedom in terms of world building, flashbacks, places, etc. I disagree with the statement that seasons cannot be split between Feast&Dance. Yes, it can be done as long as you include the chapters of the recurrent characters that appear in Dance (Arya, Jaime, Cersei). This way, give more incentives to watch the next season.
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